2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

PropQueries wrote: »

Some good poinuts. But as you say, there’s too much money at play and by that I mean the UK and US debt levels.

I’m sure they would have no problem throwing countries like Ireland under a bus.

Biden may keep the Delaware loopholes but at the same time he may also prefer if Google hired the 8,000 staff they apparently employ in Dublin in his home state instead?

I think it safe to say that the money that got him into office would prefer it the jobs in Dublin...

Timing belt wrote: »

I think it safe to say that the money that got him into office would prefer it the jobs in Dublin...

I actually think it would be in his donors interests for those jobs to be back in the states and take a relatively small hit now.

The next version of Trump may not be so friendly towards these groups.

PropQueries wrote: »

Some good points. But as you say, there’s too much money at play and by that I mean the UK and US debt levels.

I’m sure they would have no problem throwing countries like Ireland under a bus.

Biden may keep the Delaware loopholes but at the same time he may also prefer if Google hired the 8,000 staff they apparently employ in Dublin in his home state instead?

Trump would have liked that too. As would have Obama. Yet here we are, bigger than ever.

cnocbui wrote: »

When the EU was trying to set a standard requiring ownership transparency of trusts, such that no matter the chain of hidey hole company names and lawyers offices, the true owners of the trust and the assets had to be revealed, Ireland objected strongly and voted against.

This country is one of the worst EU citizens and is almost a rogue state. While ordinary people can't open bank accounts because of the ludicrous know your customer boll0cks, supposedly there to stop money laundering, the government does it's best to facilitate huge companies in avoiding paying tax anywhere and the rich in hiding their wealth and assets and doing likewise.

The place runs on double standards and hypocrisy and goes to great lengths in protecting criminals and wrongdoers - the church - from answering for their crimes and hiding unpleasant truths from sight and scrutiny - sealing mothers and babies in deep holes and filling them in.

But the craics great.

Would you not just put on the green jersey cnoc?

PropQueries wrote: »

They bought 90,000 mortgages AND €200 billion in property and business loans between 2012 and 2016.

I’ll agree the mortgages are meaningless but it’s the other €200 billion in property and business loans they purchased that I’m interested in. And that was only between 2012 and 2016.

The banks and NAMA weren’t selling off many solvent property and business loans.

So, now we have a few American funds who probably control the majority of those investment properties and land banks that were purchased in the latter years of the Celtic Tiger.

And, outside of one documentary on RTÉ in January 2017, there’s been no real analysis of what they they bought and now control.

I would put it at a much greater potential risk to the Irish economy than shadow banking is to the world economy IMO

We basically have a few CEOs in boardrooms in the United States with their finger on the trigger of the Irish property market.

If only one of them gets cold feet, it’s armageddon for the Irish property market IMO

They bought mortgages in that bundle and if they are mortgages on a home that is owned and lived in by someone it will be hard as hell for them to stake a claim in that property. You have been screaming Armageddon now for almost a year now and still no sign of it and in that time we have seen lock down after lockdown and brexit come and go and guess what still no Armageddon Your like the boy who cried wolf when it does actually happen anyone following you on here wont believe it as you have been spouting it so long and so loudly

Timing belt wrote: »

Another fund would buy...the properties change hands regularly and loads of institutional investors out there.

You only have to look at Ulster bank and already they have buyers interested in their loan/mortgage portfolio. Props your delusion is getting deeper by the day. If I thought like you I would be gone from Ireland as soon as its safe to do so

PropQueries wrote: »

I'm glad I brightened up your morning

You do although your posts and eating cornflakes are a dangerous combo

Villa05 wrote: »

What does misleading in factual data mean? Can you give some examples please?


Where did you see that McWilliams claimed or entertained the idea that credit had nothing to do with bubble in 08? He had been warning about it for some years prior to the bust.


and you appear to have forgotten my previous question

Where are the leftie politicians that are pushing for social housing to be purchased from the private market at huge cost?


This is an important point as after the last bust Government excuses was that the opposition was calling for more spending. There is a considerable differece between more spending and smarter spending

Factual data as in he spun the 08 recession in a way that would have everyone watching believing that cheap and easy access to credit had nothing whatsoever to do with blowing up the bubble pre 08. He said it over and over he had the opinion that even without the cheap credit the bubble would of still blown up . Watch it again he says it a number of times through the debate and the other nodding dogs in the audience just agreeing.

This is wrong and has been proven wrong and in hindsight of both 2008 and 2017 (when the show was created). If you take the last year 2020/2021 a period of time with demand through the roof and supply very poor, throw in the various government incentives that had existed and created just recently for buyers along with a huge increase in competition both locally with our government procuring property for the less fortunate and a huge increase in foreigners buying via REITS and vulture funds therefore more competition than ever, all of those ingredients should of pushed prices up way higher. Yet here we are still a good 20% off the highest price point of of 07. This is mainly due to people not being able to borrow the same high amounts pre-08 and the added checks and cop on the banks are showing by not just giving the cash out like confetti.

So what do we know 4 years later prices have gone up a bit then gone down a bit then back up a bit, hardly the properties shown by a bubble, ergo there is no bubble. He tried to say that a bubble does not need access to cheap credit and gave an example of the dot com bubble. Which is a complete lie. Anyone who looks at the dotcom bubble the reason it started was low interest rates at the time allowing people get more capital for a start up or in layman's terms access to easy and cheap credit


So according to the ERSI a body that has no skin in the game we would have higher prices had the cheap credit been available after 08

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/house-prices-would-be-9-higher-without-central-banks-strict-lending-rules-1085433.html

https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/economy/arid-40231619.html

https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/arid-30968541.html

As for the government buying houses - This has been going on for a good few years now.

https://www.thejournal.ie/housing-minister-local-authorities-buy-up-new-properties-5155602-Jul2020/

https://www.rte.ie/news/2019/0425/1045693-housing-local-authorities/

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/state-to-acquire-private-homes-for-social-housing-1.2756208

The gun of sinn fein has been put to their head, they have been hampered with building I am almost sure I seen new build commencements way down in 2020 and in 2021 has had a shutdown which will continue till April so they are now and have been buying for years as well as trying to build and prices are going up and they are competing with REITS, Vultures and the bog standard couple trying to get on the ladder

JimmyVik wrote: »

This comes up after every single US election.
And what happens? Nothing, ever.

That is the truth Trump and Obama said exactly the same and 12 years on Ireland continues to go from strength to strength not much to see here with Biden

PropQueries wrote: »

Said outside the states

still wrong, google want to pay as little tax as possible not 12.5%.

PropQueries wrote: »

Noone thought that the united states would print out cash and hand it out to every citizen, but they are

The USA printed cash and handed out 14bn to its citizens in the 2009.

This is not new....you could even argue that governments have always done this via grants

fliball123 wrote:

throw in the various government incentives that had existed and created just recently for buyers along with a huge increase in competition both locally with our government procuring property for the less fortunate and a huge increase in foreigners buying via REITS and vulture funds therefore more competition than ever, all of those ingredients should of pushed prices up way higher. Yet here we are still a good 20% off the highest price point of of 07. This is mainly due to people not being able to borrow the same high amounts pre-08 .

The various government measures fuelled demand and prevented a Brexit and covid correction
They were also heavily favourable to speculators over citizens keeping rents high and favouring them over tax payers in committing to long term leases at sky high rents

Villa05 wrote: »

I'll watch it again just in case I'm the one watching it with blinkers on, but we are speaking about a person who has made a career out of warning about Bank lending fueling the bubble to 08.

Was it in relation to his core housing point that the traditional rule of thumb

That as price rises demand falls

He argues correctly that this is invalid in housing because housing is a necessity and when price rises, panic sets in and pushes more demand further increasing price

This process is amplified by choking supply through Gov policy on mortgage arrears, increased costs on construction like regulation, building finance, no action on land hoarding, dereliction of existing stock.

Availability of credit is not the sole cause of bubbles. Controlling supply and demand can contribute greatly to forming and blowing up bubbles

There are multiple tools to resolve them or to blow them up further. It's a choice. Do we want a bubble or a properly functioning market that works for buyers as well as sellers and construction sector

We appear to have chosen to reward speculators over citizens

no he said the bubble would of happened in 08 credit or no credit which is wrong and hindsight in 2021 were the property prices have gone up and down and up and down and bumped along instead of prices bubbling out of control hense the phrase ergo there is currently no bubble or at least thats what the data between 2017 and now would show.

Also demand might not fall while prices rises but access to that level of credit does stop its at a set rate meaning that demand does not equal those who can actually afford to buy. The people who can actually afford to buy falls

fliball123 wrote:

Also demand might not fall while prices rises but access to that level of credit does stop its at a set rate meaning that demand does not equal those who can actually afford to buy. The people who can actually afford to buy falls

Agreed, but allowing reits in with access to free money and practically tax exempt allows for distortion in the market.

Imagine what would happen if the general public was told you no longer need to pay tax and your mortgage interest rates are 0 for the foreseeable future

It's never going to happen, but it has happened for reits/investment funds. This gives them huge competitive advantage and they become the price setters for new homes.

This together with money printing imo has been the replacement for 110,% mortgages in the noughties in driving the bubble forward. As they drive prices higher more and more are priced out of the market and these people become economically neutralised due to the sky high rents increasingly going to entities that pay no tax
As the rents soar the taxpayer comes under pressure and we are now in a position that greater than 50% of rents are subsidised by the state incl local authority. This is completely unsustainable