2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

PropQueries wrote: »

I reckon their exit strategy will be to first ask the government what they want to buy and then flog the rest on MyHome at c. 25% of current market prices.

Given what they probably initially purchased them for, they’ll probably still walk away with double their initial investment IMO

haha your comedy gold Props so taking a 75% drop

brilliant..You have some good points the odd time , a lot of spin, conjecture and some badly thought out arguments and then you have this IMO 75% drop...This is your downfall you have only your opinion to back it up.

I snorted the cornflakes from my nose when I read it

Timing belt wrote: »

Another fund would buy...the properties change hands regularly and loads of institutional investors out there.

You only have to look at Ulster bank and already they have buyers interested in their loan/mortgage portfolio. Props your delusion is getting deeper by the day. If I thought like you I would be gone from Ireland as soon as its safe to do so

fliball123 wrote: »

haha your comedy gold Props so taking a 75% drop brilliant..You have some good points the odd time , a lot of spin, conjecture and some badly thought out arguments and then you have this IMO 75% drop...This is your downfall you have only your opinion to back it up. I snorted the cornflakes from my nose when I read it

I'm glad I brightened up your morning

PropQueries wrote: »

I'm glad I brightened up your morning

You do

although your posts and eating cornflakes are a dangerous combo

fliball123 wrote: »

And not one of them was of the opinion there was no bubble, that is what the debate was about it was one sided they had no representation and were misleading in factual data. If they had someone on who believed we are not in a bubble they could of took him to task straight away with his absolute nonsense about credit not having anything to do with the bubble in 08.

What does misleading in factual data mean? Can you give some examples please?

Where did you see that McWilliams claimed or entertained the idea that credit had nothing to do with bubble in 08? He had been warning about it for some years prior to the bust.

and you appear to have forgotten my previous question

Where are the leftie politicians that are pushing for social housing to be purchased from the private market at huge cost?

This is an important point as after the last bust Government excuses was that the opposition was calling for more spending. There is a considerable differece between more spending and smarter spending

Villa05 wrote: »

What does misleading in factual data mean? Can you give some examples please?

Where did you see that McWilliams claimed or entertained the idea that credit had nothing to do with bubble in 08? He had been warning about it for some years prior to the bust.

and you appear to have forgotten my previous question

Where are the leftie politicians that are pushing for social housing to be purchased from the private market at huge cost?

This is an important point as after the last bust Government excuses was that the opposition was calling for more spending. There is a considerable differece between more spending and smarter spending

Factual data as in he spun the 08 recession in a way that would have everyone watching believing that cheap and easy access to credit had nothing whatsoever to do with blowing up the bubble pre 08. He said it over and over he had the opinion that even without the cheap credit the bubble would of still blown up . Watch it again he says it a number of times through the debate and the other nodding dogs in the audience just agreeing.

This is wrong and has been proven wrong and in hindsight of both 2008 and 2017 (when the show was created). If you take the last year 2020/2021 a period of time with demand through the roof and supply very poor, throw in the various government incentives that had existed and created just recently for buyers along with a huge increase in competition both locally with our government procuring property for the less fortunate and a huge increase in foreigners buying via REITS and vulture funds therefore more competition than ever, all of those ingredients should of pushed prices up way higher. Yet here we are still a good 20% off the highest price point of of 07. This is mainly due to people not being able to borrow the same high amounts pre-08 and the added checks and cop on the banks are showing by not just giving the cash out like confetti.

So what do we know 4 years later prices have gone up a bit then gone down a bit then back up a bit, hardly the properties shown by a bubble, ergo there is no bubble. He tried to say that a bubble does not need access to cheap credit and gave an example of the dot com bubble. Which is a complete lie. Anyone who looks at the dotcom bubble the reason it started was low interest rates at the time allowing people get more capital for a start up or in layman's terms access to easy and cheap credit

So according to the ERSI a body that has no skin in the game we would have higher prices had the cheap credit been available after 08

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/house-prices-would-be-9-higher-without-central-banks-strict-lending-rules-1085433.html

https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/economy/arid-40231619.html

https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/arid-30968541.html

As for the government buying houses - This has been going on for a good few years now.

https://www.thejournal.ie/housing-minister-local-authorities-buy-up-new-properties-5155602-Jul2020/

https://www.rte.ie/news/2019/0425/1045693-housing-local-authorities/

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/state-to-acquire-private-homes-for-social-housing-1.2756208

The gun of sinn fein has been put to their head, they have been hampered with building I am almost sure I seen new build commencements way down in 2020 and in 2021 has had a shutdown which will continue till April so they are now and have been buying for years as well as trying to build and prices are going up and they are competing with REITS, Vultures and the bog standard couple trying to get on the ladder

PropQueries wrote: »

I actually think it would be in his donors interests for those jobs to be back in the states and take a relatively small hit now.

The next version of Trump may not be so friendly towards these groups.

This comes up after every single US election.
And what happens? Nothing, ever.

JimmyVik wrote: »

This comes up after every single US election.
And what happens? Nothing, ever.

That is the truth Trump and Obama said exactly the same and 12 years on Ireland continues to go from strength to strength not much to see here with Biden

JimmyVik wrote: »

This comes up after every single US election.
And what happens? Nothing, ever.

So trump didn't get elected? Did the multinationals not start returning the cash they were "storing" in Ireland to america once he brought in the lower tax rates?

It's kind of like baby steps. We're lucky that it hasn't taking a war to change the status quo, but the status quo is changing. Slowly, but it is changing.

Noone thought the tories in the UK would be looking at increasing corporation taxes but they apparently will be now.

Noone thought that the united states would print out cash and hand it out to every citizen, but they are.

We now have governments in both the united states and the UK (the only important western powers) who are beginning to put the citizens of their countries first instead of looking to maintain the current global order.

They're worried what the next iteration of trump might be, so I reckon change is coming and a lot faster and in ways that many people don't yet fully comprehend IMO

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Said outside the states

still wrong, google want to pay as little tax as possible not 12.5%.

PropQueries wrote: »

So trump didn't get elected? Did the multinationals not start returning the cash they were "storing" in Ireland to america once he brought in the lower tax rates?

It's kind of like baby steps. We're lucky that it hasn't taking a war to change the status quo, but the status quo is changing. Slowly, but it is changing.

Noone thought the tories in the UK would be looking at increasing corporation taxes but they apparently will be now.

Noone thought that the united states would print out cash and hand it out to every citizen, but they are.

We now have governments in both the united states and the UK (the only important western powers) who are beginning to put the citizens of their countries first instead of looking to maintain the current global order.

They're worried what the next iteration of trump might be, so I reckon change is coming and a lot faster and in ways that many people don't yet fully comprehend IMO

Change is always coming. Never fast though.

You are overthinking it.
Nothing happened on it, as usual.
It will be the same after the next president is elected, whenever that may be.

This thread should be called "the PropQueries express"

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

Noone thought that the united states would print out cash and hand it out to every citizen, but they are

The USA printed cash and handed out 14bn to its citizens in the 2009.

This is not new....you could even argue that governments have always done this via grants

fliball123 wrote:

Factual data as in he spun the 08 recession in a way that would have everyone watching believing that cheap and easy access to credit had nothing whatsoever to do with blowing up the bubble pre 08. He said it over and over he had the opinion that even without the cheap credit the bubble would of still blown up . Watch it again he says it a number of times through the debate and the other nodding dogs in the audience just agreeing.

I'll watch it again just in case I'm the one watching it with blinkers on, but we are speaking about a person who has made a career out of warning about Bank lending fueling the bubble to 08.

Was it in relation to his core housing point that the traditional rule of thumb

That as price rises demand falls

He argues correctly that this is invalid in housing because housing is a necessity and when price rises, panic sets in and pushes more demand further increasing price

This process is amplified by choking supply through Gov policy on mortgage arrears, increased costs on construction like regulation, building finance, no action on land hoarding, dereliction of existing stock.

Availability of credit is not the sole cause of bubbles. Controlling supply and demand can contribute greatly to forming and blowing up bubbles

There are multiple tools to resolve them or to blow them up further. It's a choice. Do we want a bubble or a properly functioning market that works for buyers as well as sellers and construction sector

We appear to have chosen to reward speculators over citizens

fliball123 wrote:

throw in the various government incentives that had existed and created just recently for buyers along with a huge increase in competition both locally with our government procuring property for the less fortunate and a huge increase in foreigners buying via REITS and vulture funds therefore more competition than ever, all of those ingredients should of pushed prices up way higher. Yet here we are still a good 20% off the highest price point of of 07. This is mainly due to people not being able to borrow the same high amounts pre-08 .

The various government measures fuelled demand and prevented a Brexit and covid correction
They were also heavily favourable to speculators over citizens keeping rents high and favouring them over tax payers in committing to long term leases at sky high rents

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

So trump didn't get elected? Did the multinationals not start returning the cash they were "storing" in Ireland to america once he brought in the lower tax rates?

It's kind of like baby steps. We're lucky that it hasn't taking a war to change the status quo, but the status quo is changing. Slowly, but it is changing.

Noone thought the tories in the UK would be looking at increasing corporation taxes but they apparently will be now.

Noone thought that the united states would print out cash and hand it out to every citizen, but they are.

We now have governments in both the united states and the UK (the only important western powers) who are beginning to put the citizens of their countries first instead of looking to maintain the current global order.

They're worried what the next iteration of trump might be, so I reckon change is coming and a lot faster and in ways that many people don't yet fully comprehend IMO

Don't forget how Trump dropping corpo tax rates in the US to levels not seen since the 1940s led to a mass exodus of jobs and investment out of Ireland, just like the doomsayers predicted.

2020's record corpo tax take, despite a global pandemic, was a figment of imagination.

Villa05 wrote: »

I'll watch it again just in case I'm the one watching it with blinkers on, but we are speaking about a person who has made a career out of warning about Bank lending fueling the bubble to 08.

Was it in relation to his core housing point that the traditional rule of thumb

That as price rises demand falls

He argues correctly that this is invalid in housing because housing is a necessity and when price rises, panic sets in and pushes more demand further increasing price

This process is amplified by choking supply through Gov policy on mortgage arrears, increased costs on construction like regulation, building finance, no action on land hoarding, dereliction of existing stock.

Availability of credit is not the sole cause of bubbles. Controlling supply and demand can contribute greatly to forming and blowing up bubbles

There are multiple tools to resolve them or to blow them up further. It's a choice. Do we want a bubble or a properly functioning market that works for buyers as well as sellers and construction sector

We appear to have chosen to reward speculators over citizens

no he said the bubble would of happened in 08 credit or no credit which is wrong and hindsight in 2021 were the property prices have gone up and down and up and down and bumped along instead of prices bubbling out of control hense the phrase ergo there is currently no bubble or at least thats what the data between 2017 and now would show.

Also demand might not fall while prices rises but access to that level of credit does stop its at a set rate meaning that demand does not equal those who can actually afford to buy. The people who can actually afford to buy falls

hometruths

It's a bit simplistic to say there is currently no easy access to credit ergo the current market is not in a bubble.

That completely ignores the cheap credit that is already in the market - remnants of 110% mortgages, many of which are not being paid, trackers etc.

Most will agree prices have been rising because supply has been extremely tight. The hangover of this boom time credit is contributing to this tight supply, as people are locked into these houses because of negative equity/arrears/trackers.

You could argue a bubble is present when market conditions can burst. An increase in supply could certainly burst the current market conditions.

I m not saying I definitely think we are currently in a bubble. Just that it is not true to say you cannot have a bubble without a fresh supply of easy credit.

fliball123 wrote:

Also demand might not fall while prices rises but access to that level of credit does stop its at a set rate meaning that demand does not equal those who can actually afford to buy. The people who can actually afford to buy falls

Agreed, but allowing reits in with access to free money and practically tax exempt allows for distortion in the market.

Imagine what would happen if the general public was told you no longer need to pay tax and your mortgage interest rates are 0 for the foreseeable future

It's never going to happen, but it has happened for reits/investment funds. This gives them huge competitive advantage and they become the price setters for new homes.

This together with money printing imo has been the replacement for 110,% mortgages in the noughties in driving the bubble forward. As they drive prices higher more and more are priced out of the market and these people become economically neutralised due to the sky high rents increasingly going to entities that pay no tax
As the rents soar the taxpayer comes under pressure and we are now in a position that greater than 50% of rents are subsidised by the state incl local authority. This is completely unsustainable

schmittel wrote: »

It's a bit simplistic to say there is currently no easy access to credit ergo the current market is not in a bubble.

That completely ignores the cheap credit that is already in the market - remnants of 110% mortgages, many of which are not being paid, trackers etc.

Most will agree prices have been rising because supply has been extremely tight. The hangover of this boom time credit is contributing to this tight supply, as people are locked into these houses because of negative equity/arrears/trackers.

You could argue a bubble is present when market conditions can burst. An increase in supply could certainly burst the current market conditions.

I m not saying I definitely think we are currently in a bubble. Just that it is not true to say you cannot have a bubble without a fresh supply of easy credit.

Really right well go and look at other threads on here just as an eye opener there is one in particular about currently buying and selling. Banks in a lot of cases are not lending above the ECB rules and are also not lending to those on PUP or any other financial support from the government. They are no longer taking bonuses into consideration when your getting the amount you can borrow. You have to reapply every month currently to make sure your circumstances have not changed. If that's the definition of easy access I would hate to see them coming down hard on it.

If a bubble was present surely prices would of just continued on an upward trajectory and the current situation does take into consideration the current credit within the market. Property has not gone up by much at all if you measure from 2017 its bounced alone with no major rises or falls hardly the properties of a bubble 4 years of prices not moving up or down too much.

Have you any figures on property still in negative equity currently I cant find anything for 2020 or beyond.

Can you demonstrate one bubble in history not predicated on easy and cheap credit?

Just so we are clear we may well move into bubble territory in the near future but from 2017 to 2020 there was not a bubble (as mcWilliams outlined) as the stats on property price would prove this in hindsight.

Villa05 wrote: »

Agreed, but allowing reits in with access to free money and practically tax exempt allows for distortion in the market.

Imagine what would happen if the general public was told you no longer need to pay tax and your mortgage interest rates are 0 for the foreseeable future

It's never going to happen, but it has happened for reits/investment funds. This gives them huge competitive advantage and they become the price setters for new homes.

This together with money printing imo has been the replacement for 110,% mortgages in the noughties in driving the bubble forward. As they drive prices higher more and more are priced out of the market and these people become economically neutralised due to the sky high rents increasingly going to entities that pay no tax
As the rents soar the taxpayer comes under pressure and we are now in a position that greater than 50% of rents are subsidised by the state incl local authority. This is completely unsustainable

I totally agree with you but this is how it is. I never said REITS or Vultures or the fact that government are spending on ready made homes and competing in a very competitive property market was good. I was simply pointing out that this is the current situation.

According to RTE, commercial property vacancy rates in Ireland have risen to 13.5%.

"Sligo had the highest number of vacant commercial properties, with 19.9% or almost one-in-five such properties unoccupied.

With the exception of Kildare at 14.4%, the figures show that all counties in the greater Dublin area registered commercial vacancy rates lower than the national average, with Meath recording the lowest rate at 10.1%.

In the capital, the vacancy rate fell marginally by 0.1% to 11.9%"

We don't even have to look at utilising the space above shop units. Maybe actually convert these empty units into residential space in their entirety?

Plus, who owns this amount of vacant commercial space in Ireland? And, how wealthy are they that they don't even need to consider renting them out? Most likely funds IMO

Link to article on RTE here: https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0224/1199194-commercial-property-vacancy-rate-rises-to-13-5/

cnocbui

The Irish definition of a housing bubble: Prices in the highly desirable 4 streets I would deign to live in exceed my means.

cnocbui

PropQueries wrote: »

According to RTE, commercial property vacancy rates in Ireland have risen to 13.5%.

"Sligo had the highest number of vacant commercial properties, with 19.9% or almost one-in-five such properties unoccupied.

With the exception of Kildare at 14.4%, the figures show that all counties in the greater Dublin area registered commercial vacancy rates lower than the national average, with Meath recording the lowest rate at 10.1%.

In the capital, the vacancy rate fell marginally by 0.1% to 11.9%"

We don't even have to look at utilising the space above shop units. Maybe actually convert these empty units into residential space in their entirety?

Plus, who owns this amount of vacant commercial space in Ireland? And, how wealthy are they that they don't even need to consider renting them out? Most likely funds IMO

Link to article on RTE here: https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0224/1199194-commercial-property-vacancy-rate-rises-to-13-5/

Another; other peoples property should be made into communal property if I don't agree with how they are using it post.

cnocbui wrote: »

Another; other peoples property should be made into communal property if I don't agree with how they are using it post.

Well, the state can compulsory purchase my property for a cycle path in the middle of nowhere i.e. greenways.

I think housing is a more pressing issue than a cycle path for the three people in the country who actually enjoy cycling in the rain for pleasure

Just to add. I'm not in favour of compulsory purchase for housing. I'm in favour of incentives to ensure property in prime locations is used to it's full potential i.e. similar to the vacant property taxes in the united states etc.

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, the state can compulsory purchase my property for a cycle path in the middle of nowhere i.e. greenways.

I think housing is a more pressing issue than a cycle path for the three people in the country who actually enjoy cycling in the rain for pleasure

The state cant afford to buy everything.

JimmyVik wrote: »

The state cant afford to buy everything.

Its like the late late show one for everyone in the audience. Doing what props says will cause even more hardship on those working to try and pay for it all while there will be those who fleece the system and have no intention of paying their way..Moral Hazard anyone.

fliball123 wrote: »

Its like the late late show one for everyone in the audience. Doing what props says will cause even more hardship on those working to try and pay for it all while there will be those who fleece the system and have no intention of paying their way..Moral Hazard anyone.

How would vacant property taxes (like the United States) cost the state anything?

If anything they would generate revenue. The side benefit is that it would encourage vacant property owners to look again at their property and see if they should finally make use of it.

For example, Sligo has a 20% commercial property vacancy rate. I’m sure there are many self-employed people who would take up that space if the rent was right.

More businesses in Sligo town, more busy, brings more people into the town so existing businesses benefit too, less dereliction, nicer atmosphere, young people see existing self employed people and think they can do it too. Sligo town booms and keeps booming due to an increase in local entrepreneurship.

cnocbui

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, the state can compulsory purchase my property for a cycle path in the middle of nowhere i.e. greenways.

I think housing is a more pressing issue than a cycle path for the three people in the country who actually enjoy cycling in the rain for pleasure

Just to add. I'm not in favour of compulsory purchase for housing. I'm in favour of incentives to ensure property in prime locations is used to it's full potential i.e. similar to the vacant property taxes in the united states etc.

As someone who is subject to what amounts to a CPO without payment, I don't agree with you - vehemently. If the state want's to dictate to property owners how property is used, they should have to buy it at current market value, and then they can use what is now their property as they see fit.

You are real fan of the big stick. Perhaps if you were on the receiving end of one you mightn't be so glib with your ideas as to what should be inflicted on others.