PropQueries wrote: » If these tax reforms don’t go our way, how long do people believe the American funds who control our property market will stay around for?
PropQueries wrote: » For everyone hoping that Ireland will get lucky again during the upcoming negotiations on the OECD global tax reforms, the FT has just reported that: “UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak will use the election of Joe Biden as partial cover for a big Budget increase in corporation tax rates, arguing that the US president is also planning a hike in business taxes.” If these tax reforms don’t go our way, how long do people believe the American funds who control our property market will stay around for? Link to FT article here: https://www.ft.com/content/55f9d53f-b100-4073-814b-156cc6729040
schmittel wrote: » One of the reasons small time landlords are leaving/not entering the market is due to income tax rates. Of course income tax is included in what I meant in a buyer considering potential future tax/legislation changes. Obtuse at best to insinuate otherwise.
Graham wrote: » I don't think the REITs are here for low corporation tax. If the companies that hold the mortgages decide to move on, they'll sell the mortgages to another party. If corporation taxes increase globally that would surely be good for us given the number of international companies based here and our new increased tax take.
Cyrus wrote: » I really hope the oecd comes through for you , you’ve gone big on this one in particular.
PropQueries wrote: » They were property and business loans and obviously mostly property loans
PropQueries wrote: » that still leaves us with at least over €100 billion they bought in Ireland between 2012 and 2016.
PropQueries wrote: » Don’t blame the messenger I’m actually a great help to existing landlords and property investors. If I’m right, shouldn’t our fellow Irish property investors make their move before the funds do? Once the funds make their move, it’s too late IMO
PropQueries wrote: » Once again The €200 billion they purchased between 2012 and 2016 were not mortgages. They were property and business loans and obviously mostly property loans. Ires Reit has a market cap of less than a €1billion so would account, at a maximum, for less than 0.5% of that €200 billion figure. Say even €100 billion of the rest is due to UK loans etc, (it’s not anywhere near that figure though), that still leaves us with at least over €100 billion they bought in Ireland between 2012 and 2016. I’m not worried about the corporate tax rises in the UK and the USA. I’m worried they will close off every single tax loophole which is why multinationals are here. No multinationals, no jobs. No jobs, no workers. No workers, no demand for housing. That is, the American funds who control our property market sell up and leave.
Graham wrote: » Even accepting the beermat estimates, an exit would mean the loans got sold on. I don't see the major impact. I also don't buy the corporation exodus if our corporation tax rates go up in line with a global increase. We'd no doubt lose some of the virtual/shell operations in the IFSC but outside of that I think we still have enough going for us that the handful of losses would be mitigated by our larger corporation tax take.
PropQueries wrote: » So the American and UK governments are going to increase their corporation taxes and still allow the Googles etc. to keep pretending that they makes all their worldwide profits outside the United States in Ireland? Possible but highly unlikely IMO We can increase corporation taxes all we like. But 90% of zero is still zero.
Timing belt wrote: » Irish housing stock is about 1.8m 1/3 of people rent. If you assume 50% of these are owned by government and 50% by funds then you get to about 100bn assuming avg house being 350k. So we are talking about c 300,000 properties in Ireland. So why will they sell and leave all at once? And won’t another fund just buy the property so it has zero impact or are you saying no-one will buy them because they will get a better return elsewhere?
Cyrus wrote: » Google pretends it makes all its profits in Ireland? That’s a misnomer and a half .
Timing belt wrote: » UK and USA designed most of the international tax loop holes. Even China has its version of Vegas to get funds out and into other countries to avail of tax loopholes....The OECD is a smoke screen and as effective as a chocolate tea pot.
PropQueries wrote: » I reckon their exit strategy will be to first ask the government what they want to buy and then flog the rest on MyHome at c. 25% of current market prices. Given what they probably initially purchased them for, they’ll probably still walk away with double their initial investment IMO
PropQueries wrote: » Maybe we’re entering a new era?
Timing belt wrote: » Maybe... let’s wait and watch to see if Biden closes all the loopholes in his home state of Delaware... the uk closes tax loopholes with BVI, CI, IOM... oh wait that’s not happening because everyone is using the loopholes. It would be hard to find a property on the high streets in London that is not registered to a company/fund/trust in one of these locations. Lobbying and political donations would need stop if they were ever serious as to much money in play.
PropQueries wrote: » Some good poinuts. But as you say, there’s too much money at play and by that I mean the UK and US debt levels. I’m sure they would have no problem throwing countries like Ireland under a bus. Biden may keep the Delaware loopholes but at the same time he may also prefer if Google hired the 8,000 staff they apparently employ in Dublin in his home state instead?
Timing belt wrote: » I think it safe to say that the money that got him into office would prefer it the jobs in Dublin...
MacronvFrugals wrote: » There’s a normal gaf in Drumcondra with 125 companies registered there, was in the Panama Papers a few years back.
PropQueries wrote: » and then flog the rest on MyHome at c. 25% of current market prices.
bilbot79 wrote: » St Luke's no doubt ��
PropQueries wrote: » Some good points. But as you say, there’s too much money at play and by that I mean the UK and US debt levels. I’m sure they would have no problem throwing countries like Ireland under a bus.Biden may keep the Delaware loopholes but at the same time he may also prefer if Google hired the 8,000 staff they apparently employ in Dublin in his home state instead?
cnocbui wrote: » When the EU was trying to set a standard requiring ownership transparency of trusts, such that no matter the chain of hidey hole company names and lawyers offices, the true owners of the trust and the assets had to be revealed, Ireland objected strongly and voted against. This country is one of the worst EU citizens and is almost a rogue state. While ordinary people can't open bank accounts because of the ludicrous know your customer boll0cks, supposedly there to stop money laundering, the government does it's best to facilitate huge companies in avoiding paying tax anywhere and the rich in hiding their wealth and assets and doing likewise. The place runs on double standards and hypocrisy and goes to great lengths in protecting criminals and wrongdoers - the church - from answering for their crimes and hiding unpleasant truths from sight and scrutiny - sealing mothers and babies in deep holes and filling them in. But the craics great.
PropQueries wrote: » They bought 90,000 mortgages AND €200 billion in property and business loans between 2012 and 2016. I’ll agree the mortgages are meaningless but it’s the other €200 billion in property and business loans they purchased that I’m interested in. And that was only between 2012 and 2016. The banks and NAMA weren’t selling off many solvent property and business loans. So, now we have a few American funds who probably control the majority of those investment properties and land banks that were purchased in the latter years of the Celtic Tiger. And, outside of one documentary on RTÉ in January 2017, there’s been no real analysis of what they they bought and now control. I would put it at a much greater potential risk to the Irish economy than shadow banking is to the world economy IMO We basically have a few CEOs in boardrooms in the United States with their finger on the trigger of the Irish property market. If only one of them gets cold feet, it’s armageddon for the Irish property market IMO
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