Less cold...then colder again

darkman2 · 23-12-2010 5:50am #1

The models are firming up on the situation now (00z). We know it will be less cold (but not mild) for 2, maybe 3 days, from St Stephen's day but it will turn colder as a Scandinavian high pressure builds initiating continental winds. So a partial thaw (complete on windward coasts) will occur. Temperatures will reach 2 - 7c during the milder spell in brisk southerly winds. A band of rain preceded by snow and freezing rain will cross the country later on the 26th from the west. More later...

glimmerman123 · 23-12-2010 3:57pm

I know it's a bit early to tell but is there a chance that we might experience the same extreme temperatures we have had during this cold spell?

darkman2 · 24-12-2010 2:50am

Not atm. The flow will go continental and therefore colder esspecially at night however it depends on the source of the wind. ATM it appears a slack Southeasterly is likely which would not be as cold (but would be cold at night) because it may be sourced in the Med. Not certain by any means. We will have a much better idea by Sunday. Models all over the place post 96hrs atm.

I don't think a complete thaw will occur in inland parts or on high ground before the next cold snap. That's just my opinion.

Something like this

ECM1-192.GIF?23-0

And when we have high pressure over us the most likely outcome is retrogression (pushing back or northwest of high pressure) into Greenland at some point allowing in much colder Northerly winds.

darkman2 · 24-12-2010 5:26am

00z shows exactly what I am talking about - high being pulled west - low pressure attempting to undercut.

gfs-0-162.png?0

This is the most likely outcome. Very cold once this process completes - a matter of days. Low pressure deep in the Atlantic will steer warm Atlantic air toward Greenland which makes high pressure condusive there...which means cold for us.

glimmerman123 · 24-12-2010 4:25pm

Met Eireann were showing high pressure moving over us from the west around the 29th Dec yesterday with Atlantic air circulating around it giving us temperatures of around 6 or 7 degrees. Would i be correct in saying that if this high pressure moves to the Northwest it would allow very cold Northerlies to develop over Ireland and isn't that what happened to open the flood gates for Artic air to spread down over Ireland creating this current cold snap.

Big Daddy Cool · 24-12-2010 4:50pm

lets hope its grand and mild for new years, heading to the west, dont want any snow until the 2nd

darkman2 · 24-12-2010 5:47pm

12z UKMO going for a cold continental Southeasterly flow by the 30th. That will drag in surface cold from the continent. Temperatures would be in low single figures again and it would be cold at night with frosts.

Kippure · 24-12-2010 5:59pm

We have only seen the tip of this cold winter. I fear there is much much worse to come. The way the models are at the moment, and how accurrate some forecasters have been so far. Any cold that goes into europe and any under cutting , we on the east coast could see more high snow falls. Now we have the siberian high coming into play. Pushing west to combine with the green land high, christ we are in for some serious cold ARTIC weather.

flutegirl · 24-12-2010 6:27pm

Kippure wrote: »

We have only seen the tip of this cold winter. I fear there is much much worse to come. The way the models are at the moment, and how accurrate some forecasters have been so far. Any cold that goes into europe and any under cutting , we on the east coast could see more high snow falls. Now we have the siberian high coming into play. Pushing west to combine with the green land high, christ we are in for some serious cold ARTIC weather.

I don't think I can hack anymore of this weather, and I love the snow, but jeez, it's doing my head in now.

Kippure · 24-12-2010 6:36pm

flutegirl wrote: »

I don't think I can hack anymore of this weather, and I love the snow, but jeez, it's doing my head in now.

Expect this to become our future winter norm

darkman2 · 25-12-2010 4:42pm

Happy Christmas everyone (Turkey was lovely!)

Anyway - oh yeah it's on again. Very cold weather due to return before the New Year. Increasingly the models are trending towards an outcome that seems inevitable as we begin 2011. Firstly a cold continental easterly flow will become established toward the second part of next week bringing surface cold and harsh frosts. This should then be replaced by a North or Northeasterly later so frost, ice and snow should return quite quickly after a brief milder interuption but the timing of this evolution is uncertain. Right now I reckon this could evolve before the new year.

On another note tomorrow will be hazardous for driving when freezing rain crosses the country tomorrow afternoon. The rain will form a film on top of ice. Walking will be treacherous aswell. Best advice is just not to go out really. Another extremely cold night tonight but the last cold night for a few days at least.

ninebeanrows · 25-12-2010 5:26pm

darkman2 wrote: »

Happy Christmas everyone (Turkey was lovely!)

Anyway - oh yeah it's on again. Very cold weather due to return before the New Year. Increasingly the models are trending towards an outcome that seems inevitable as we begin 2011. Firstly a cold continental easterly flow will become established toward the second part of next week bringing surface cold and harsh frosts. This should then be replaced by a North or Northeasterly later so frost, ice and snow should return quite quickly after a brief milder interuption but the timing of this evolution is uncertain. Right now I reckon this could evolve before the new year.

On another note tomorrow will be hazardous for driving when freezing rain crosses the country tomorrow afternoon. The rain will form a film on top of ice. Walking will be treacherous aswell. Best advice is just not to go out really. Another extremely cold night tonight but the last cold night for a few days at least.

I am pondering Christmas Day mad theory.

I have noticed with every run the slight decreasing of the breakdown.

The cold is now lasting right up until tomorrow night and the chances of snow in the northeast seem to be increasing.

I still think there is a 2% chance of the unthinkable happening.

The UKMO is a stunning output in the long term.

darkman2 · 25-12-2010 5:49pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

I am pondering Christmas Day mad theory.

I have noticed with every run the slight decreasing of the breakdown.

The cold is now lasting right up until tomorrow night and the chances of snow in the northeast seem to be increasing.

I still think there is a 2% chance of the unthinkable happening.

The UKMO is a stunning output in the long term.

I highly doubt it will snow tomorrow except maybe the far North East for a while though short term supprises have happened many times in the past. Warmer upper air rifles in too quickly. UKMO 12z is increasingly cold and very interesting by 144hrs (31st) with a Northerly almost ready to go but id prefer to see the High pressure a little further west. I this scenario we could also see high pressure topple into Scandinavia opening the bitter Easterly floodgates. ECM will be interesting later.

UW144-21.GIF?25-17

GME has an even faster evolution

Redsunset · 25-12-2010 6:05pm

Well i actually would not be surprized to see some snow initially tomorrow before extreamly dangerous condition occur underfoot due to freezing rain.I really hope people don't shrug off these warnings.Tis a very real situation and not to be taken lightly.Anyway here's HIRLAM 850 temps for tomorrow night showing somewhat cold uppers hanging on for dear life.

ninebeanrows · 25-12-2010 6:19pm

redsunset wrote: »

Well i actually would not be surprized to see some snow initially tomorrow before extreamly dangerous condition occur underfoot due to freezing rain.I really hope people don't shrug off these warnings.Tis a very real situation and not to be taken lightly.Anyway here's HIRLAM 850 temps for tomorrow night showing somewhat cold uppers hanging on for dear life.

In this situation the 0c 850hpa isotherm will be the most critical.

It can snow right up to say 850hpa at -1c in this situation

Gonzo · 25-12-2010 7:22pm

Ive lived through 3 winters this bad before in the 80s and from what I can remember we were still trying to get rid of the wintry showers during the first week of May, in one case i remember seeing a light snow shower in June. So expect plenty more snow to come over the next 4 months.

maquiladora · 25-12-2010 8:00pm

ninebeanrows · 25-12-2010 8:22pm

The difference between this chart... and the charts shown a few days ago for Monday is huge. Kick that ridge in another 100 miles and you have the cold surface temps sticking into the NE of NI.

mike65 · 25-12-2010 9:41pm

Kippure wrote: »

Expect this to become our future winter norm

Pray tell

Pangea · 25-12-2010 9:44pm

Well the BBC charts for tomorrow has just one wee part of Donegal covered in white for tomorrow , just so happens thats exactly where I am

.
Well see what comes of it.

Jimmy Garlic · 25-12-2010 10:21pm

If we get freezing rain tomorrow I wonder if the imbeciles (Ireland has more than its fair share) will come out in force and insist on driving on it.
Driving in those conditions is suicidal, it makes driving on compacted snow and slush seem easy in comparison.

leahyl · 26-12-2010 12:45pm

Lads cab I just ask a perhaps stupid question - wont it just be rain and not freezing rain? In most parts of the country the temp would be above zero at this stage I would have thought? The snow is all gone here in cork but my mum said the pavements are meant to be lethal which I can't understand - thought it would have melted by now. I'm
Meant to go out tonight which im not looking forward to anyway cos it's going to be windy and lashing rain but if it's icy too - there's no way!!

Thanks!

mike65 · 26-12-2010 12:47pm

There is no chance of freezing rain by tonight, in fact if there is any right now anywhere in the country I'd be surprised.

Pangea · 26-12-2010 12:48pm

Leahyl the ground temperatures in many places is still below freezing so the rain will land on frozen ground and become frozen. Also the rain will end up just washing away the grip that the snow had and will make it very dicey riley indeed.

leahyl · 26-12-2010 12:49pm

Pangea wrote: »

Leahyl the ground temperatures in many places is still below freezing so the rain will land on frozen ground and become frozen. Also the rain will end up just washing away the grip that the snow had and will make it very dicey riley indeed.

:eek: ok I think I have an excuse not to go out tonight!

mike65 · 26-12-2010 12:50pm

The fella is in Cork, there will be no ice roads in Cork tonight unless he is heading for the mountains.

Pangea · 26-12-2010 12:52pm

mike65 wrote: »

The fella is in Cork, there will be no ice roads in Cork tonight unless he is heading for the mountains.

The lady you mean

Well if there is a complete thaw in Cork with no ice remaining at all then indeed there will be no freezing rain.

mike65 · 26-12-2010 12:52pm

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leahyl · 26-12-2010 12:52pm

mike65 wrote: »

The fella is in Cork, there will be no ice roads in Cork tonight unless he is heading for the mountains.

I'm female:) thanks for your input though!

Kippure · 26-12-2010 2:49pm

mike65 wrote: »

Pray tell

In a nut shell,low solar activity. A link between the colder winters of northern Europe and low solar activity (Solar Cycle 25) has been established.

It describes how we are entering into an era of lower solar activity which is likely to result in UK, European winter temperatures more like those seen at the end of the seventeenth century, which was very cold. The anomaly in Northern Europe's winter temperatures could be to do with a phenomenon called 'blocking'.

The likes off Peirs Corbin an Astrophysicist, use,s his Solar-Lunar-Action-Technique (SLAT) of weather & climate forecasting which now includes the ability to predict from months ahead extreme events all over the world and changes in the Jet Stream.

Discodog · 26-12-2010 2:54pm

Well the forecasts for the next 10 days indicate that Galway will stay at a balmy 8c to 10c. But the forecasts for the next few days vary a lot. I am doing my usual plan the week session & some are saying that Mon & Tue will be wet here whilst others, like the BBC, say that it will be pretty dry.

Less cold...then colder again

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