Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie
Hi all! We have been experiencing an issue on site where threads have been missing the latest postings. The platform host Vanilla are working on this issue. A workaround that has been used by some is to navigate back from 1 to 10+ pages to re-sync the thread and this will then show the latest posts. Thanks, Mike.
Hi there,
There is an issue with role permissions that is being worked on at the moment.
If you are having trouble with access or permissions on regional forums please post here to get access: https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058365403/you-do-not-have-permission-for-that#latest

Less cold...then colder again

  • 23-12-2010 5:50am
    #1
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭


    The models are firming up on the situation now (00z). We know it will be less cold (but not mild) for 2, maybe 3 days, from St Stephen's day but it will turn colder as a Scandinavian high pressure builds initiating continental winds. So a partial thaw (complete on windward coasts) will occur. Temperatures will reach 2 - 7c during the milder spell in brisk southerly winds. A band of rain preceded by snow and freezing rain will cross the country later on the 26th from the west. More later...


«1345

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 492 ✭✭glimmerman123


    I know it's a bit early to tell but is there a chance that we might experience the same extreme temperatures we have had during this cold spell?


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Not atm. The flow will go continental and therefore colder esspecially at night however it depends on the source of the wind. ATM it appears a slack Southeasterly is likely which would not be as cold (but would be cold at night) because it may be sourced in the Med. Not certain by any means. We will have a much better idea by Sunday. Models all over the place post 96hrs atm.


    I don't think a complete thaw will occur in inland parts or on high ground before the next cold snap. That's just my opinion.


    Something like this

    ECM1-192.GIF?23-0


    And when we have high pressure over us the most likely outcome is retrogression (pushing back or northwest of high pressure) into Greenland at some point allowing in much colder Northerly winds.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    00z shows exactly what I am talking about - high being pulled west - low pressure attempting to undercut.

    gfs-0-162.png?0


    This is the most likely outcome. Very cold once this process completes - a matter of days. Low pressure deep in the Atlantic will steer warm Atlantic air toward Greenland which makes high pressure condusive there...which means cold for us.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 492 ✭✭glimmerman123


    Met Eireann were showing high pressure moving over us from the west around the 29th Dec yesterday with Atlantic air circulating around it giving us temperatures of around 6 or 7 degrees. Would i be correct in saying that if this high pressure moves to the Northwest it would allow very cold Northerlies to develop over Ireland and isn't that what happened to open the flood gates for Artic air to spread down over Ireland creating this current cold snap.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,774 ✭✭✭Big Daddy Cool


    lets hope its grand and mild for new years, heading to the west, dont want any snow until the 2nd


  • Advertisement
  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Rukm1441.gif



    12z UKMO going for a cold continental Southeasterly flow by the 30th. That will drag in surface cold from the continent. Temperatures would be in low single figures again and it would be cold at night with frosts.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,186 ✭✭✭Kippure


    We have only seen the tip of this cold winter. I fear there is much much worse to come. The way the models are at the moment, and how accurrate some forecasters have been so far. Any cold that goes into europe and any under cutting , we on the east coast could see more high snow falls. Now we have the siberian high coming into play. Pushing west to combine with the green land high, christ we are in for some serious cold ARTIC weather.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,992 ✭✭✭flutegirl


    Kippure wrote: »
    We have only seen the tip of this cold winter. I fear there is much much worse to come. The way the models are at the moment, and how accurrate some forecasters have been so far. Any cold that goes into europe and any under cutting , we on the east coast could see more high snow falls. Now we have the siberian high coming into play. Pushing west to combine with the green land high, christ we are in for some serious cold ARTIC weather.

    I don't think I can hack anymore of this weather, and I love the snow, but jeez, it's doing my head in now. :(


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,186 ✭✭✭Kippure


    flutegirl wrote: »
    I don't think I can hack anymore of this weather, and I love the snow, but jeez, it's doing my head in now. :(

    Expect this to become our future winter norm :)


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Happy Christmas everyone (Turkey was lovely!)



    Anyway - oh yeah it's on again. Very cold weather due to return before the New Year. Increasingly the models are trending towards an outcome that seems inevitable as we begin 2011. Firstly a cold continental easterly flow will become established toward the second part of next week bringing surface cold and harsh frosts. This should then be replaced by a North or Northeasterly later so frost, ice and snow should return quite quickly after a brief milder interuption but the timing of this evolution is uncertain. Right now I reckon this could evolve before the new year.

    On another note tomorrow will be hazardous for driving when freezing rain crosses the country tomorrow afternoon. The rain will form a film on top of ice. Walking will be treacherous aswell. Best advice is just not to go out really. Another extremely cold night tonight but the last cold night for a few days at least.


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    darkman2 wrote: »
    Happy Christmas everyone (Turkey was lovely!)



    Anyway - oh yeah it's on again. Very cold weather due to return before the New Year. Increasingly the models are trending towards an outcome that seems inevitable as we begin 2011. Firstly a cold continental easterly flow will become established toward the second part of next week bringing surface cold and harsh frosts. This should then be replaced by a North or Northeasterly later so frost, ice and snow should return quite quickly after a brief milder interuption but the timing of this evolution is uncertain. Right now I reckon this could evolve before the new year.

    On another note tomorrow will be hazardous for driving when freezing rain crosses the country tomorrow afternoon. The rain will form a film on top of ice. Walking will be treacherous aswell. Best advice is just not to go out really. Another extremely cold night tonight but the last cold night for a few days at least.

    I am pondering Christmas Day mad theory.

    I have noticed with every run the slight decreasing of the breakdown.

    The cold is now lasting right up until tomorrow night and the chances of snow in the northeast seem to be increasing.

    I still think there is a 2% chance of the unthinkable happening.

    The UKMO is a stunning output in the long term.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    I am pondering Christmas Day mad theory.

    I have noticed with every run the slight decreasing of the breakdown.

    The cold is now lasting right up until tomorrow night and the chances of snow in the northeast seem to be increasing.

    I still think there is a 2% chance of the unthinkable happening.

    The UKMO is a stunning output in the long term.




    I highly doubt it will snow tomorrow except maybe the far North East for a while though short term supprises have happened many times in the past. Warmer upper air rifles in too quickly. UKMO 12z is increasingly cold and very interesting by 144hrs (31st) with a Northerly almost ready to go but id prefer to see the High pressure a little further west. I this scenario we could also see high pressure topple into Scandinavia opening the bitter Easterly floodgates. ECM will be interesting later.

    UW144-21.GIF?25-17

    GME has an even faster evolution

    Rgme1321.gif


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Well i actually would not be surprized to see some snow initially tomorrow before extreamly dangerous condition occur underfoot due to freezing rain.I really hope people don't shrug off these warnings.Tis a very real situation and not to be taken lightly.Anyway here's HIRLAM 850 temps for tomorrow night showing somewhat cold uppers hanging on for dear life.

    140812.JPG


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    redsunset wrote: »
    Well i actually would not be surprized to see some snow initially tomorrow before extreamly dangerous condition occur underfoot due to freezing rain.I really hope people don't shrug off these warnings.Tis a very real situation and not to be taken lightly.Anyway here's HIRLAM 850 temps for tomorrow night showing somewhat cold uppers hanging on for dear life.

    140812.JPG

    In this situation the 0c 850hpa isotherm will be the most critical.

    It can snow right up to say 850hpa at -1c in this situation


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,959 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Ive lived through 3 winters this bad before in the 80s and from what I can remember we were still trying to get rid of the wintry showers during the first week of May, in one case i remember seeing a light snow shower in June. So expect plenty more snow to come over the next 4 months.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    ECM1-240.GIF?25-0

    ECM0-240.GIF?25-0


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    The difference between this chart... and the charts shown a few days ago for Monday is huge. Kick that ridge in another 100 miles and you have the cold surface temps sticking into the NE of NI.

    Recm721.gif


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,972 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    Kippure wrote: »
    Expect this to become our future winter norm :)

    Pray tell


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    Well the BBC charts for tomorrow has just one wee part of Donegal covered in white for tomorrow , just so happens thats exactly where I am :D.
    Well see what comes of it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,349 ✭✭✭Jimmy Garlic


    If we get freezing rain tomorrow I wonder if the imbeciles (Ireland has more than its fair share) will come out in force and insist on driving on it.
    Driving in those conditions is suicidal, it makes driving on compacted snow and slush seem easy in comparison.


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,322 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    Lads cab I just ask a perhaps stupid question - wont it just be rain and not freezing rain? In most parts of the country the temp would be above zero at this stage I would have thought? The snow is all gone here in cork but my mum said the pavements are meant to be lethal which I can't understand - thought it would have melted by now. I'm
    Meant to go out tonight which im not looking forward to anyway cos it's going to be windy and lashing rain but if it's icy too - there's no way!!

    Thanks!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,972 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    There is no chance of freezing rain by tonight, in fact if there is any right now anywhere in the country I'd be surprised.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    Leahyl the ground temperatures in many places is still below freezing so the rain will land on frozen ground and become frozen. Also the rain will end up just washing away the grip that the snow had and will make it very dicey riley indeed. :)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,322 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    Pangea wrote: »
    Leahyl the ground temperatures in many places is still below freezing so the rain will land on frozen ground and become frozen. Also the rain will end up just washing away the grip that the snow had and will make it very dicey riley indeed. :)

    :eek: ok I think I have an excuse not to go out tonight!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,972 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    The fella is in Cork, there will be no ice roads in Cork tonight unless he is heading for the mountains.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    mike65 wrote: »
    The fella is in Cork, there will be no ice roads in Cork tonight unless he is heading for the mountains.
    The lady you mean ;)
    Well if there is a complete thaw in Cork with no ice remaining at all then indeed there will be no freezing rain.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,972 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    /\
    :o
    \/


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,322 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    mike65 wrote: »
    The fella is in Cork, there will be no ice roads in Cork tonight unless he is heading for the mountains.

    I'm female:) thanks for your input though!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,186 ✭✭✭Kippure


    mike65 wrote: »
    Pray tell

    In a nut shell,low solar activity. A link between the colder winters of northern Europe and low solar activity (Solar Cycle 25) has been established.

    It describes how we are entering into an era of lower solar activity which is likely to result in UK, European winter temperatures more like those seen at the end of the seventeenth century, which was very cold. The anomaly in Northern Europe's winter temperatures could be to do with a phenomenon called 'blocking'.

    The likes off Peirs Corbin an Astrophysicist, use,s his Solar-Lunar-Action-Technique (SLAT) of weather & climate forecasting which now includes the ability to predict from months ahead extreme events all over the world and changes in the Jet Stream.


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,916 ✭✭✭✭Discodog


    Well the forecasts for the next 10 days indicate that Galway will stay at a balmy 8c to 10c. But the forecasts for the next few days vary a lot. I am doing my usual plan the week session & some are saying that Mon & Tue will be wet here whilst others, like the BBC, say that it will be pretty dry.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,183 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    Theres no sign of any cold in the forseeable future, a big anticyclone in the vicinity of Ireland at this time year can only mean gloom and overcast skies.
    Remember the big anticyclone of around 1040mbs on top of us about two weeks ago? ME forecasted temps of -5 at night, I predicted temps of +5 under a blanket of cloud. I was right they were wrong- by about 10c!
    Cloud and gloom for the remainder of 2010 unfortunately.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    Theres no sign of any cold in the forseeable future, a big anticyclone in the vicinity of Ireland at this time year can only mean gloom and overcast skies.
    Remember the big anticyclone of around 1040mbs on top of us about two weeks ago? ME forecasted temps of -5 at night, I predicted temps of +5 under a blanket of cloud. I was right they were wrong- by about 10c!
    Cloud and gloom for the remainder of 2010 unfortunately.

    We had sub zero temps every night during that time. :confused::confused::confused:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Cloud and gloom for the remainder of 2010 unfortunately.

    Probably. But since it's less than a week until 2011 it's hardly a big deal.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,760 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    Theres no sign of any cold in the forseeable future, a big anticyclone in the vicinity of Ireland at this time year can only mean gloom and overcast skies.
    Remember the big anticyclone of around 1040mbs on top of us about two weeks ago? ME forecasted temps of -5 at night, I predicted temps of +5 under a blanket of cloud. I was right they were wrong- by about 10c!
    Cloud and gloom for the remainder of 2010 unfortunately.

    Yep - the outlook for at least the next 7 days is dull in every sense of the word:(


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    This thread forcast is completely on track. Anyone who wants to disagree then please go ahead and prove your forcast. But as of now it is exactly as in the OP. And getting much colder later in the period just after New Year. This is of course backed by the models. One only has to look at the latest UKMO output to see this is entirely appropriate as a forcast.

    Rukm1441.gif


  • Advertisement
  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,972 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    Dunno how you arrive at that conclusion, certainly using the charts above. The high presure will stay to the south of Ireland drifting further south feeding air around its western flank - ergo average temps for January.

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/ani/gfsx/


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    This is exciting to read, certainly BBC expecting an onslaught of the wintry weather to return to the shores ,which boades well for the Emerald Isle.

    BBC Monthly Outlook
    Published at 10:00, 27 December

    (Next update at 10:00, 3 January 2011)

    Written by Peter Gibbs
    Summary
    It's a breakthrough, but not for long.

    At 7am on Boxing Day morning the temperature at Castlederg in Northern Ireland crept above freezing, for the first time since the 17th of December.

    Milder air was at last breaking through from the Atlantic, but as usual the transition was a messy one. After such a prolonged cold spell, a dangerous mix of rain, sleet, snow and ice spread erratically eastwards across the UK.

    The signs are that milder weather will be relatively short-lived as the blocking weather pattern reasserts itself.

    Without any change of airmass, any input of warmth from the feeble winter sun is more than offset by cooling during the long nights. The net effect is that temperatures continue to fall. As a result, January 2011 looks set to be another cold month.

    Monday 27 December 2010 to Sunday 2 January 2011
    Quiet start to the New Year

    Once the milder Atlantic air is in place there will be a slow but steady thaw of the lying snow right across the UK.

    Frost-free nights will be a novelty, but the combination of mild, moist air sitting over cold ground always leads to disappointingly grey, dank weather.

    A brief spell of easterly winds later in the week gives a hint of what's in store for the New Year weekend, as temperatures begin to ease downwards once again. However, there's little sign of any disruptive weather for New Year revellers or travellers.

    Monday 3 January 2011 to Sunday 9 January 2011
    Chilly but dry

    High pressure is expected to continue to dominate the weather across the UK.

    Temperatures will once again fall below average during the first full week of the New Year. Largely dry but cold conditions then look set to persist until the end of the period, but with occasional rain or snow showers affecting some northeastern parts at times.

    Frost and icy stretches remain a risk across all parts.

    Monday 10 January 2011 to Sunday 23 January 2011
    Cold and colder

    The cold weather looks set to continue across the UK, with particularly low temperatures likely across central parts. This gives a continuing risk of widespread sharp frosts overnight for most regions, with daytime temperatures only a little above freezing.

    Sunshine and precipitation amounts look set to be around average for mid-January, but given the continuing low temperatures, it is likely that some places will see further snow.
    Next week

    Is there no end to the cold snap? Find out next week


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,972 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    Pangea wrote: »
    Is there no end to the cold snap? Find out next week

    Hmmm a bit of a contradiction!

    You have to be careful about transposing weather that Britain gets to Ireland. For example the east of England usually has warmer/drier summers, the same areas can have colder winter temps.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    mike65 wrote: »

    You have to be careful about transposing weather that Britain gets to Ireland. For example the east of England usually has warmer/drier summers, the same areas can have colder winter temps.

    Pangea wrote: »
    ,which boades well for the Emerald Isle.
    The Uk forecast covers the North Of Ireland, Castlederg was even mentioned there, If the arctic weather is in the UK then its a general indication of what things will be like in Ireland.


  • Registered Users Posts: 347 ✭✭isle of man




  • Advertisement
  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,972 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    The number of snow/cold weather porn weirdos who lurk on this on this board is remarkable!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 11,001 ✭✭✭✭opinion guy


    mike65 wrote: »
    The number of snow/cold weather porn weirdos who lurk on this on this board is remarkable!

    Shut it hot weather fetish boy!! you make me sick!!

    :P


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    mike65 wrote: »
    Dunno how you arrive at that conclusion, certainly using the charts above. The high presure will stay to the south of Ireland drifting further south feeding air around its western flank - ergo average temps for January.

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/ani/gfsx/

    It's a process. It's about trends not what a particular chart shows a week away. They are always changing. If you look at it and take the charts at face value then it's fairly average looking. However if you know about typical trends and evolutions of particular setups from observing them over the years on the models then it's easier to determine what is likely to happen. It is almost a subconcious thing to simply disregard charts more then, say, 96 hrs out and look at overall trends instead. In this case the most likely scenario is a retrograding high pulling Northwest at some point. It may not happen this week or the week after but chances are it will happen. And on this mornings runs we are very close now. We don't quite get there yet but we are getting there. It's hard to explain what im getting at. Im just trying to get my thinking across when I look at all the charts.

    But here is what I mean when I say we are very close to another very cold evolution. It's the 120 - 144hr range that is crucial.

    ECM - Almost. the trend is to put the high pressure further and further west with each run. In this case the cold is into the North Sea. Compared to yesterday much better if you like cold weather!

    Recm1201.gif

    UKMO - Almost perfect evolution for cold in Ireland as a block developes to the North with undercutting Low pressure to the East and Southwest. Most likely outcome a Northeasterly wind although I don't know how far South the center of the low pressure would get.

    Rukm1441.gif


    GFS again evolving towards cold but like the ECM putting it into the North Sea and the continent.

    Rtavn1441.png

    So not there yet but getting there!;)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,258 ✭✭✭MUSEIST


    mike65 wrote: »
    The number of snow/cold weather porn weirdos who lurk on this on this board is remarkable!
    :rolleyes:

    Nothing wrong with a bit of snow weather porn.

    Whats your obsession with mild, grey, cloudy depressing muck:p


  • Registered Users Posts: 777 ✭✭✭H2UMrsRobinson


    mike65 wrote: »
    The number of snow/cold weather porn weirdos who lurk on this on this board is remarkable!

    Yeah, what's your point ? :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 347 ✭✭isle of man


    http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2010/dec/26/freezing-weather-set-to-return

    not sure how much credit this is.

    but its a ramp so i like it


  • Registered Users Posts: 551 ✭✭✭Wine Goddess


    Extreme weather (in our case snow) gets people excited....
    Me for a start, and lots of others as can be seen on the over 1 million views on the snow forum.

    Mild grey dank depressing windy weather is an everyday and therefore boring occurrence........if we were in India it might be a little more exciting!


    personally I miss seeing snow fall from the sky the beauty of it the silence of it.......

    However I think everyone adapted to the conditions as best they couod and so we got through it as best we could....

    We had a family member missing on Christmas Day as did lots of other families BUT no-one died and we will see each other again, it has just taken a bit of getting used to.......

    No-one can control the weather so best to make the most of whatever somes and enjoy it.

    OK philosophy over. Time to have a tipple and a mince pie :)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 11,001 ✭✭✭✭opinion guy


    Have to say the weather has gotten more interesting. It used to be just gray gray gray and basically only two seasons - warm gray and cold gray. Now its all seasonal and extreme and ****!!!

    YEAAAA EXTREMMMEMEEEEEEEE WEATHER!!!!!! YEAH PEPSI!!!!!

    Somebody high five me quick!!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 347 ✭✭isle of man


    Have to say the weather has gotten more interesting. It used to be just gray gray gray and basically only two seasons - warm gray and cold gray. Now its all seasonal and extreme and ****!!!

    YEAAAA EXTREMMMEMEEEEEEEE WEATHER!!!!!! YEAH PEPSI!!!!!

    Somebody high five me quick!!!

    qucik somebody take the sweets of this person, suger rush :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 551 ✭✭✭Wine Goddess


    Have to say the weather has gotten more interesting. It used to be just gray gray gray and basically only two seasons - warm gray and cold gray. Now its all seasonal and extreme and ****!!!

    YEAAAA EXTREMMMEMEEEEEEEE WEATHER!!!!!! YEAH PEPSI!!!!!

    Somebody high five me quick!!!


    HIGH FIVE!!!
    HIGH SIX!!
    HIGH SEVEN!!!!
    Oops too much P****i!:D


  • Advertisement
Advertisement