Very Warm, Thunderstorms, Flash flooding - Friday through weekend

vickers209 · 17-07-2014 6:44pm

Notice a sea fog looming on the coast around wicklow head

Red Nissan · 17-07-2014 6:49pm

sunbabe08 wrote: »

i'll believe it when i see it and hear it.

Absolutely, MT already suggests that the storm front splits to our east and west ~ :rolleyes:

sunbabe08 · 17-07-2014 6:53pm

Red Nissan wrote: »

Absolutely, MT already suggests that the storm front splits to our east and west ~ :rolleyes:

:(:( the cork lightening shield seriously sucks

Kermit.de.frog · 17-07-2014 6:56pm

Do some honestly think there are a bunch of mystic megs here going to tell them whether it's going to rain in their back garden and at what time?

Toward midnight the storms or heavy rain will be on the south coast and will then move north through the early hours as showery pulses. The nature of this is that downpours can be very local and random. Some will get great entertainment and lose sleep and some will be disappointed. Nobody can say any more than this. Most places in a line roughly from Meath to Galway south have a proper chance of seeing a thunderstorm overnight but not everywhere will.

That's part of the craic of this though. You just don't know.

Storm 10 · 17-07-2014 6:58pm

Nothing spectacular on the forecast just now

Red Nissan · 17-07-2014 6:58pm

Approaching

goat2 · 17-07-2014 6:59pm

it is getting a bit cloudy here now, a bit of wind starting to shake the branches of trees, it was nice and sunny till 20 minuets ago,
at least we know,
forewarned, equals forearmed, as we have those parasols in gardens, so taking them down,

at least roof was fixed a week ago so that has settled well, had to wait for that fixing due to the builders being busy with all the homes like mine that had been damaged in the February storm.

M.T. Cranium · 17-07-2014 7:01pm

Would say 0100-0300h for south coast and 0400-0700h for Dublin to Clare.

I do expect two activity centres with some kind of a break between them but that might be further east than Cork city, anyway some chance for almost all locations to see lightning.

Will post an update in the forecast thread around 9-10 p.m. as it should be more clear how this might evolve once it tangles with Cornwall around 8 p.m.

Optimistic for widespread thunder and lightning given the very high dew points being advected north, earlier these were 20-21 C in Brittany. This indicates potential energy and with the increasing inflow of surface sea-cooled northeast winds this could assist with uplift against the Wicklow Mountains.

Arklow around 0300-0400 could be taking quite a pounding, large hail is certainly possible given the dynamics. I think some of the model forecasts have underestimated the relative intensity of the eastern portion of this complex relative to the western portion, time will tell.

Dublin region, if this holds together, would be seeing distant lightning by about 0300 or 0400 then getting the main course after daybreak although it may not be very light out except for the occasional lightning as the thick cloud spreads in around sunrise. My estimate for Cork and probably Waterford is 0130-0300h. Limerick would be about 0300-0500h.

whitebriar · 17-07-2014 7:09pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Arklow around 0300-0400 could be taking quite a pounding, large hail is certainly possible given the dynamics. I think some of the model forecasts have underestimated the relative intensity of the eastern portion of this complex relative to the western portion, time will tell.
.

:eek: :eek:

M.T. Cranium · 17-07-2014 7:22pm

Where else can you get a dedicated forecast for Arklow?

By the way, my timing may appear a bit slow, and I would be certain that people on the south coast will be seeing a lot of lightning off to their south well before midnight, but let's say midnight to 0200h for the actual onset of severe storm conditions. And I would now say that the original (removed) level 2 was probably a fairly accurate call by kermit, matters not to me whether it stays level one or two because I'm not sure what these might imply to boards readers for thunderstorms, the lightning will be intense in some places and might warrant a level 2, maybe the rainfalls will verify at level one, some local hail might be more worthy of a level two. Wind gusts also more likely to be level one if anything. All depends on whether you want the alert level to be generally applicable or worst case and if the most intense storm happens to hit larger towns then it seems more appropriate afterwards too. Maybe hold at level one and add wording such as "locally very intense" to give the right balance.

KingdomRushed · 17-07-2014 7:55pm

Looks like the lightning on the eastern flank (at least) has died back considerably in last frame or two on Sat24. Let's see what happens next

piuswal · 17-07-2014 7:56pm

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

1945 strongest echoes close to SW coat

see http://www.met.ie/latest/rainfall_radar.asp also

you do not need netweather for this evening and tonight

keith16 · 17-07-2014 7:56pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Where else can you get a dedicated forecast for Arklow?

Aren't you supposed to be on holidays? :pac:

I am surprised it will hit Dublin so late in the morning. Would I be right in saying it is a relatively slow moving system compared to other, traditional systems that move across the country from West to East?

NegativeCreep · 17-07-2014 7:58pm

Ah I'll be devastated if there's no thunder and lightning in Blanch. Haven't heard or seen a good thunderstorm in an age

piuswal · 17-07-2014 8:00pm

keith16 wrote: »

Aren't you supposed to be on holidays? :pac:

I am surprised it will hit Dublin so late in the morning. Would I be right in saying it is a relatively slow moving system compared to other, traditional systems that move across the country from West to East?

Meteogram, next 48 hours
The meteogram: Arklow
The blue bars show max and min values for precipitation per hour.

Today and tonight, 17 July 2014
Time Forecast Temp. Precip. Wind
Thursday 20:00 Clear sky 17° 0 mm Gentle breeze, 5 m/s from north-northeastGentle breeze, 5 m/s from north-northeast
Thursday 21:00 Clear sky 16° 0 mm Moderate breeze, 7 m/s from north-northeastModerate breeze, 7 m/s from north-northeast
Thursday 22:00 Partly cloudy 16° 0 mm Moderate breeze, 8 m/s from north-northeastModerate breeze, 8 m/s from north-northeast
Thursday 23:00 Rain 15° 0.3 – 1.0 mm Moderate breeze, 8 m/s from north-northeastModerate breeze, 8 m/s from north-northeast
Friday 00:00 Rain 14° 0.3 – 0.5 mm Fresh breeze, 9 m/s from north-northeastFresh breeze, 9 m/s from north-northeast
Friday 01:00 Light rain showers 14° 0 – 0.7 mm Fresh breeze, 9 m/s from north-northeastFresh breeze, 9 m/s from north-northeast
Friday 02:00 Rain 15° 0.2 – 0.4 mm Fresh breeze, 10 m/s from north-northeastFresh breeze, 10 m/s from north-northeast
Friday 03:00 Heavy rain 16° 0.7 – 2.9 mm Fresh breeze, 11 m/s from northeastFresh breeze, 11 m/s from northeast
Friday 04:00 Rain 16° 0.1 – 1.5 mm Fresh breeze, 10 m/s from east-northeastFresh breeze, 10 m/s from east-northeast
Friday 05:00 Cloudy 17° 0 – 0.1 mm Fresh breeze, 9 m/s from eastFresh breeze, 9 m/s from east
Tomorrow, 18 July 2014
Time Forecast Temp. Precip. Wind
Friday 06:00 Cloudy 17° 0 – 0.1 mm Fresh breeze, 9 m/s from eastFresh breeze, 9 m/s from east
Friday 07:00 Cloudy 17° 0 – 0.1 mm Moderate breeze, 8 m/s from east-southeastModerate breeze, 8 m/s from east-southeast
Friday 08:00 Cloudy 17° 0.1 mm Moderate breeze, 8 m/s from southeastModerate breeze, 8 m/s from southeast
Friday 09:00 Light rain 17° 0.1 mm Moderate breeze, 8 m/s from southeastModerate breeze, 8 m/s from southeast
Friday 10:00 Light rain 17° 0.1 mm Fresh breeze, 9 m/s from south-southeastFresh breeze, 9 m/s from south-southeast
Friday 11:00 Cloudy 17° 0.1 mm Fresh breeze, 9 m/s from south-southeastFresh breeze, 9 m/s from south-southeast
Friday 12:00 Cloudy 17° 0 – 0.1 mm Moderate breeze, 8 m/s from south-southeastModerate breeze, 8 m/s from south-southeast
Friday 13:00 Cloudy 17° 0 mm Moderate breeze, 8 m/s from south-southeastModerate breeze, 8 m/s from south-southeast
Friday 14:00 Cloudy 17° 0 mm Fresh breeze, 9 m/s from southFresh breeze, 9 m/s from south
Friday 15:00 Cloudy 18° 0 mm Fresh breeze, 9 m/s from southFresh breeze, 9 m/s from south
Friday 16:00 Cloudy 18° 0 mm Fresh breeze, 9 m/s from southFresh breeze, 9 m/s from south
Friday 17:00 Cloudy 18° 0 mm Moderate breeze, 9 m/s from southModerate breeze, 9 m/s from south
Friday 18:00 Partly cloudy 18° 0 mm Moderate breeze, 8 m/s from southModerate breeze, 8 m/s from south
Friday 19:00 Fair 17° 0 mm Moderate breeze, 8 m/s from southModerate breeze, 8 m/s from south
Friday 20:00 Partly cloudy 17° 0 mm Moderate breeze, 8 m/s from southModerate breeze, 8 m/s from south
Friday 21:00 Cloudy 17° 0 mm Moderate breeze, 6 m/s from southModerate breeze, 6 m/s from south
Friday 22:00 Cloudy 16° 0 mm Gentle breeze, 5 m/s from southGentle breeze, 5 m/s from south
Friday 23:00 Cloudy 16° 0 mm Gentle breeze, 4 m/s from southGentle breeze, 4 m/s from south
19 July 2014
Time Forecast Temp. Precip. Wind
Saturday 00:00 Fog 16° 0 mm Light breeze, 3 m/s from southLight breeze, 3 m/s from south
Saturday 01:00 Fog 15° 0 mm Light breeze, 2 m/s from south-southeastLight breeze, 2 m/s from south-southeast
Saturday 02:00 Fog 15° 0 mm Light air, 1 m/s from south-southwestLight air, 1 m/s from south-southwest
Saturday 03:00 Fog 14° 0 mm Light breeze, 2 m/s from west-northwestLight breeze, 2 m/s from west-northwest
Saturday 04:00 Fog 14° 0 – 0.1 mm Light air, 2 m/s from north-northwestLight air, 2 m/s from north-northwest
Saturday 05:00 Fog 14° 0 – 0.1 mm Light breeze, 3 m/s from north-northeastLight breeze, 3 m/s from north-northeast
Saturday 06:00 Fog 14° 0 mm Gentle breeze, 4 m/s from northeastGentle breeze, 4 m/s from northeast
Saturday 07:00 Cloudy 14° 0 – 0.1 mm Gentle breeze, 4 m/s from northGentle breeze, 4 m/s from north
Saturday 08:00 Cloudy 15° 0.1 mm Gentle breeze, 4 m/s from northGentle breeze, 4 m/s from north
Saturday 09:00 Rain 16° 0.1 – 0.8 mm Gentle breeze, 4 m/s from north-northeastGentle breeze, 4 m/s from north-northeast
Saturday 10:00 Rain 16° 0.3 – 2.0 mm Gentle breeze, 5 m/s from north-northeastGentle breeze, 5 m/s from north-northeast
Saturday 11:00 Heavy rain 17° 0.7 – 1.5 mm Gentle breeze, 4 m/s from north-northeastGentle breeze, 4 m/s from north-northeast
Saturday 12:00 Heavy rain 17° 0.8 – 1.3 mm Light breeze, 4 m/s from north-northeastLight breeze, 4 m/s from north-northeast
Saturday 13:00 Rain showers 17° 0.2 – 0.8 mm Gentle breeze, 4 m/s from northGentle breeze, 4 m/s from north
Saturday 14:00 Cloudy 18° 0 – 0.1 mm Light breeze, 3 m/s from northLight breeze, 3 m/s from north
Saturday 15:00 Cloudy 18° 0 – 0.1 mm Light breeze, 3 m/s from east-northeastLight breeze, 3 m/s from east-northeast
Saturday 16:00 Cloudy 18° 0 – 0.2 mm Light air, 2 m/s from north-northeastLight air, 2 m/s from north-northeast
Saturday 17:00 Rain 18° 0.1 – 1.4 mm Calm, 0 m/sCalm, 0 m/s
Saturday 18:00 Rain 17° 0.4 – 1.1 mm Light air, 2 m/s from southLight air, 2 m/s from south
Saturday 19:00 Rain 16° 0.2 – 0.8 mm Light breeze, 4 m/s from southLight breeze, 4 m/s from south

see http://www.yr.no/place/Ireland/Leinster/Arklow/hour_by_hour.html

Larbre34 · 17-07-2014 8:07pm

^ Really.

M.T. Cranium · 17-07-2014 8:26pm

keith16 wrote: »

Aren't you supposed to be on holidays? :pac:

I am surprised it will hit Dublin so late in the morning. Would I be right in saying it is a relatively slow moving system compared to other, traditional systems that move across the country from West to East?

Well, I will go into full holiday out of town off the internet mode later this month or for two weeks in August. We haven't quite nailed down the details for that. For July, I feel like I am in holiday mode as the weather here is very hot and sunny day after day, and I haven't been on line very much except for this event. I guess my partial holiday is on hold from now to Sunday, in any case being a golf fan I have that on in the background.

As to the other question, this system is moving at a normal rate for south to north moving systems, until Monday at least the further motion of systems will become slower and almost chaotic as a cyclonic pattern develops over Britain.

Going back to prepare an updated forecast, next move for me will be to update the boards forecast around 9 p.m.

SeaBreezes · 17-07-2014 8:38pm

Can hear the rumbles in the distance from the old head of kinsale..

Kermit.de.frog · 17-07-2014 8:42pm

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Can hear the rumbles in the distance from the old head of kinsale..

sunbabe08 · 17-07-2014 8:49pm

Bring it on!!!!

And seeing all the lovely bright colours on the rain radar!!

Red Nissan · 17-07-2014 8:52pm

Storm deflecting? Going a bit to our west?

Supercell · 17-07-2014 9:13pm

Red Nissan wrote: »

Storm deflecting? Going a bit to our west?

Looking at the satellite images it certainly looks to be tracking more to the NW than it was looking like earlier.

fleet_admiral · 17-07-2014 9:17pm

whitebriar wrote: »

:eek: :eek:

Bring it on I say:)

Strangegravy · 17-07-2014 9:31pm

If you watch the Hirlam model it has the initial heavy precipitation brushing the south/south west coast alright, but then followed by a strong "squall line" looking storm coming up over most of Ireland over night.

http://www.ilmateenistus.ee/ilm/prognoosid/mudelprognoosid/euroopa/?lang=en#layers/sadufaas

redsteveireland · 17-07-2014 9:35pm

Supercell wrote: »

Looking at the satellite images it certainly looks to be tracking more to the NW than it was looking like earlier.

The area of heavy rain to affect the country is not in view there yet I think.

whitebriar · 17-07-2014 9:39pm

Supercell wrote: »

Looking at the satellite images it certainly looks to be tracking more to the NW than it was looking like earlier.

Thats the western flank though which has been reasonably well flagged to be doing that?
If whats down towards Cornwall now takes the same trajectory ie NW by North,then basically Waterford through wexford then Wicklow and Dublin and points inland from there will hear the doors and windows shaking overnight?

Oscar Bravo · 17-07-2014 9:43pm

2139 update from met eireann
Very heavy thundery rain will gradually extend northwards to most parts overnight (much of Ulster holding dry though), with the high risk of local flooding and hail in parts too. Munster and Leinster will see the heaviest of the rain, which will be relentless in parts, causing treacherous conditions and possibly some disruption. A mild and humid night, with lowest temperatures of 12 to 15 degrees Celsius. Becoming rather breezy later too, in a freshening easterly wind.

Kermit.de.frog · 17-07-2014 9:44pm

Edit already posted.

Oscar Bravo · 17-07-2014 9:46pm

extremely heavy rain off the south coast at midnight

chipsdave · 17-07-2014 10:08pm

Flashes here now off the SW Coast causing the Holiday crowds to scream but NO thunder.

The Peanut · 17-07-2014 10:11pm

Just outside Clonakilty. Strangely calm and dead. Just lightning.

chipsdave · 17-07-2014 10:13pm

The Peanut wrote: »

Just outside Clonakilty. Strangely calm and dead. Just lightning.

There are massive flashes SW towards the stags rocks west of Galley Head

aisling86 · 17-07-2014 10:14pm

My mother is updating me from eagle point in bantry lots of people gathering out the point watching lots of lightening

The Peanut · 17-07-2014 10:15pm

chipsdave wrote: »

There are massive flashes SW towards the stags rocks west of Galley Head

Yes, it's very impressive. Eerie without thunder or rain.

Longboard · 17-07-2014 10:19pm

Just snapped this in rosscarbery,co cork. (sorry about the size!)

Harry Palmr · 17-07-2014 10:19pm

aisling86 wrote: »

My mother is updating me from eagle point in bantry lots of people gathering out the point watching lots of lightening

Well with no telly or internet there's little else to do down there!

The body of this squally area does look like its drifting west with a thin tail for the bulk of the country.

whitebriar · 17-07-2014 10:19pm

The Peanut wrote: »

Yes, it's very impressive. Eerie without thunder or rain.

The thunder is there its just it cant be heard from peoples vantage point yet but soon soon it will

sunbabe08 · 17-07-2014 10:20pm

Wow!!!

Oscar Bravo · 17-07-2014 10:22pm

Just worth pointing out that its 21 degrees at Shannon on the 10pm reports and 19 degrees at Knock and let me tell you there are not many days in the year knock airport gets up to 19 degrees let alone 10pm at night!

pad199207 · 17-07-2014 10:25pm

Feels chilly here now with a strengthening easterly breeze
Doesn't feel thundery at all

16c

Harry Palmr · 17-07-2014 10:26pm

Scilly

Cornwall

seanaway · 17-07-2014 10:27pm

Waterford all quiet and temperature nice and warm. No rain, wind, thunder... nada..

pad199207 · 17-07-2014 10:27pm

Convection around the Cornwall area seems to be dying off according to latest sat

seanaway · 17-07-2014 10:29pm

They're putting those new pylons up quick arent they?

Red Nissan · 17-07-2014 10:31pm

sunbabe08 wrote: »

Not sure if I just heard thunder in cork city or the sound of an airplane landing in cork airport,

I ran out too, plane I think. Bet ye I'll sleep through the whole thing again like last time?

yellowlabrador · 17-07-2014 10:32pm

It's started to rain here.

pauldry · 17-07-2014 10:33pm

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

extremely heavy rain off the south coast at midnight

Don't think thats right but I'm staying up

20c in sligo at 10pm

today's temperatures

900 13c
1100 16c
1400 18c
1700 21c
1900 23c
2200 20c

strange day with a really warm plume of air and warm sunshine coming at 1600 after some drizzle here in Sligo

sunbabe08 · 17-07-2014 10:38pm

Red Nissan wrote: »

I ran out too, plane I think. Bet ye I'll sleep through the whole thing again like last time?

No no absolutely not. I'm setting my alarm & leaving the windows & curtains open. I will b awake for this.

& yes, it was planes landing in cork airport, never heard them that loud landing before

Aimsir · 17-07-2014 10:41pm

Cork City South warm no lightining

RobertKK · 17-07-2014 10:43pm

sunbabe08 wrote: »

No no absolutely not. I'm setting my alarm & leaving the windows & curtains open. I will b awake for this.

& yes, it was planes landing in cork airport, never heard them that loud landing before

Shouldn't windows be closed during a thunderstorm?

Very Warm, Thunderstorms, Flash flooding - Friday through weekend

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