Very Warm, Thunderstorms, Flash flooding - Friday through weekend

Supercell · 17-07-2014 5:30pm

First radar returns showing up on the raintoday.co.uk site, looking like fireworks later for the south coast, hopefully one or two rumbles further north too!

pad199207 · 17-07-2014 5:32pm

IF these storms still possess the energy and sferic count when they reach Ireland it won't be just a coastal affair.

Time will tell

Fingers crossed

Video · 17-07-2014 6:22pm

Netweathers radar is down... what a time to lose it! better get it back soon

ltdslipdiff · 17-07-2014 6:27pm

Plenty of condensation on my can of Heineken,dead cert for thunderstorms,game on!

Hootanany · 17-07-2014 6:33pm

Will it hit Dublin?

leahyl · 17-07-2014 6:33pm

What time roughly should we expect some action on South coast? I need to collect my parents from the train station around 9 - eeeek don't want to be driving in those conditions!

sunbabe08 · 17-07-2014 6:34pm

Getting hazy here in cork city, & its roasting. Bring on the fun

Lady_North1 · 17-07-2014 6:41pm

in Kerry on holiday. Glenbeigh to be exact. What are the chances of thunder here? always wanted to be here during a storm.

tylercollins · 17-07-2014 6:43pm

I was going to make the 5/6 hour trip down to Hook Head this evening but can't get anyone to come along with me. Hope the show is great for you guys along the south coast - make sure and get plenty of pictures!!

Oscar Bravo · 17-07-2014 6:43pm

Just a reminder to people to watch the forecast after the six one news on Rte 1 in about 10 minutes for the latest

vickers209 · 17-07-2014 6:44pm

Notice a sea fog looming on the coast around wicklow head

Red Nissan · 17-07-2014 6:49pm

sunbabe08 wrote: »

i'll believe it when i see it and hear it.

Absolutely, MT already suggests that the storm front splits to our east and west ~ :rolleyes:

sunbabe08 · 17-07-2014 6:53pm

Red Nissan wrote: »

Absolutely, MT already suggests that the storm front splits to our east and west ~ :rolleyes:

:(:( the cork lightening shield seriously sucks

Kermit.de.frog · 17-07-2014 6:56pm

Do some honestly think there are a bunch of mystic megs here going to tell them whether it's going to rain in their back garden and at what time?

Toward midnight the storms or heavy rain will be on the south coast and will then move north through the early hours as showery pulses. The nature of this is that downpours can be very local and random. Some will get great entertainment and lose sleep and some will be disappointed. Nobody can say any more than this. Most places in a line roughly from Meath to Galway south have a proper chance of seeing a thunderstorm overnight but not everywhere will.

That's part of the craic of this though. You just don't know.

Storm 10 · 17-07-2014 6:58pm

Nothing spectacular on the forecast just now

Red Nissan · 17-07-2014 6:58pm

Approaching

goat2 · 17-07-2014 6:59pm

it is getting a bit cloudy here now, a bit of wind starting to shake the branches of trees, it was nice and sunny till 20 minuets ago,
at least we know,
forewarned, equals forearmed, as we have those parasols in gardens, so taking them down,

at least roof was fixed a week ago so that has settled well, had to wait for that fixing due to the builders being busy with all the homes like mine that had been damaged in the February storm.

M.T. Cranium · 17-07-2014 7:01pm

Would say 0100-0300h for south coast and 0400-0700h for Dublin to Clare.

I do expect two activity centres with some kind of a break between them but that might be further east than Cork city, anyway some chance for almost all locations to see lightning.

Will post an update in the forecast thread around 9-10 p.m. as it should be more clear how this might evolve once it tangles with Cornwall around 8 p.m.

Optimistic for widespread thunder and lightning given the very high dew points being advected north, earlier these were 20-21 C in Brittany. This indicates potential energy and with the increasing inflow of surface sea-cooled northeast winds this could assist with uplift against the Wicklow Mountains.

Arklow around 0300-0400 could be taking quite a pounding, large hail is certainly possible given the dynamics. I think some of the model forecasts have underestimated the relative intensity of the eastern portion of this complex relative to the western portion, time will tell.

Dublin region, if this holds together, would be seeing distant lightning by about 0300 or 0400 then getting the main course after daybreak although it may not be very light out except for the occasional lightning as the thick cloud spreads in around sunrise. My estimate for Cork and probably Waterford is 0130-0300h. Limerick would be about 0300-0500h.

whitebriar · 17-07-2014 7:09pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Arklow around 0300-0400 could be taking quite a pounding, large hail is certainly possible given the dynamics. I think some of the model forecasts have underestimated the relative intensity of the eastern portion of this complex relative to the western portion, time will tell.
.

:eek: :eek:

M.T. Cranium · 17-07-2014 7:22pm

Where else can you get a dedicated forecast for Arklow?

By the way, my timing may appear a bit slow, and I would be certain that people on the south coast will be seeing a lot of lightning off to their south well before midnight, but let's say midnight to 0200h for the actual onset of severe storm conditions. And I would now say that the original (removed) level 2 was probably a fairly accurate call by kermit, matters not to me whether it stays level one or two because I'm not sure what these might imply to boards readers for thunderstorms, the lightning will be intense in some places and might warrant a level 2, maybe the rainfalls will verify at level one, some local hail might be more worthy of a level two. Wind gusts also more likely to be level one if anything. All depends on whether you want the alert level to be generally applicable or worst case and if the most intense storm happens to hit larger towns then it seems more appropriate afterwards too. Maybe hold at level one and add wording such as "locally very intense" to give the right balance.

KingdomRushed · 17-07-2014 7:55pm

Looks like the lightning on the eastern flank (at least) has died back considerably in last frame or two on Sat24. Let's see what happens next

keith16 · 17-07-2014 7:56pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Where else can you get a dedicated forecast for Arklow?

Aren't you supposed to be on holidays? :pac:

I am surprised it will hit Dublin so late in the morning. Would I be right in saying it is a relatively slow moving system compared to other, traditional systems that move across the country from West to East?

piuswal · 17-07-2014 7:56pm

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

1945 strongest echoes close to SW coat

see http://www.met.ie/latest/rainfall_radar.asp also

you do not need netweather for this evening and tonight

NegativeCreep · 17-07-2014 7:58pm

Ah I'll be devastated if there's no thunder and lightning in Blanch. Haven't heard or seen a good thunderstorm in an age

piuswal · 17-07-2014 8:00pm

keith16 wrote: »

Aren't you supposed to be on holidays? :pac:

I am surprised it will hit Dublin so late in the morning. Would I be right in saying it is a relatively slow moving system compared to other, traditional systems that move across the country from West to East?

Meteogram, next 48 hours
The meteogram: Arklow
The blue bars show max and min values for precipitation per hour.

Today and tonight, 17 July 2014
Time Forecast Temp. Precip. Wind
Thursday 20:00 Clear sky 17° 0 mm Gentle breeze, 5 m/s from north-northeastGentle breeze, 5 m/s from north-northeast
Thursday 21:00 Clear sky 16° 0 mm Moderate breeze, 7 m/s from north-northeastModerate breeze, 7 m/s from north-northeast
Thursday 22:00 Partly cloudy 16° 0 mm Moderate breeze, 8 m/s from north-northeastModerate breeze, 8 m/s from north-northeast
Thursday 23:00 Rain 15° 0.3 – 1.0 mm Moderate breeze, 8 m/s from north-northeastModerate breeze, 8 m/s from north-northeast
Friday 00:00 Rain 14° 0.3 – 0.5 mm Fresh breeze, 9 m/s from north-northeastFresh breeze, 9 m/s from north-northeast
Friday 01:00 Light rain showers 14° 0 – 0.7 mm Fresh breeze, 9 m/s from north-northeastFresh breeze, 9 m/s from north-northeast
Friday 02:00 Rain 15° 0.2 – 0.4 mm Fresh breeze, 10 m/s from north-northeastFresh breeze, 10 m/s from north-northeast
Friday 03:00 Heavy rain 16° 0.7 – 2.9 mm Fresh breeze, 11 m/s from northeastFresh breeze, 11 m/s from northeast
Friday 04:00 Rain 16° 0.1 – 1.5 mm Fresh breeze, 10 m/s from east-northeastFresh breeze, 10 m/s from east-northeast
Friday 05:00 Cloudy 17° 0 – 0.1 mm Fresh breeze, 9 m/s from eastFresh breeze, 9 m/s from east
Tomorrow, 18 July 2014
Time Forecast Temp. Precip. Wind
Friday 06:00 Cloudy 17° 0 – 0.1 mm Fresh breeze, 9 m/s from eastFresh breeze, 9 m/s from east
Friday 07:00 Cloudy 17° 0 – 0.1 mm Moderate breeze, 8 m/s from east-southeastModerate breeze, 8 m/s from east-southeast
Friday 08:00 Cloudy 17° 0.1 mm Moderate breeze, 8 m/s from southeastModerate breeze, 8 m/s from southeast
Friday 09:00 Light rain 17° 0.1 mm Moderate breeze, 8 m/s from southeastModerate breeze, 8 m/s from southeast
Friday 10:00 Light rain 17° 0.1 mm Fresh breeze, 9 m/s from south-southeastFresh breeze, 9 m/s from south-southeast
Friday 11:00 Cloudy 17° 0.1 mm Fresh breeze, 9 m/s from south-southeastFresh breeze, 9 m/s from south-southeast
Friday 12:00 Cloudy 17° 0 – 0.1 mm Moderate breeze, 8 m/s from south-southeastModerate breeze, 8 m/s from south-southeast
Friday 13:00 Cloudy 17° 0 mm Moderate breeze, 8 m/s from south-southeastModerate breeze, 8 m/s from south-southeast
Friday 14:00 Cloudy 17° 0 mm Fresh breeze, 9 m/s from southFresh breeze, 9 m/s from south
Friday 15:00 Cloudy 18° 0 mm Fresh breeze, 9 m/s from southFresh breeze, 9 m/s from south
Friday 16:00 Cloudy 18° 0 mm Fresh breeze, 9 m/s from southFresh breeze, 9 m/s from south
Friday 17:00 Cloudy 18° 0 mm Moderate breeze, 9 m/s from southModerate breeze, 9 m/s from south
Friday 18:00 Partly cloudy 18° 0 mm Moderate breeze, 8 m/s from southModerate breeze, 8 m/s from south
Friday 19:00 Fair 17° 0 mm Moderate breeze, 8 m/s from southModerate breeze, 8 m/s from south
Friday 20:00 Partly cloudy 17° 0 mm Moderate breeze, 8 m/s from southModerate breeze, 8 m/s from south
Friday 21:00 Cloudy 17° 0 mm Moderate breeze, 6 m/s from southModerate breeze, 6 m/s from south
Friday 22:00 Cloudy 16° 0 mm Gentle breeze, 5 m/s from southGentle breeze, 5 m/s from south
Friday 23:00 Cloudy 16° 0 mm Gentle breeze, 4 m/s from southGentle breeze, 4 m/s from south
19 July 2014
Time Forecast Temp. Precip. Wind
Saturday 00:00 Fog 16° 0 mm Light breeze, 3 m/s from southLight breeze, 3 m/s from south
Saturday 01:00 Fog 15° 0 mm Light breeze, 2 m/s from south-southeastLight breeze, 2 m/s from south-southeast
Saturday 02:00 Fog 15° 0 mm Light air, 1 m/s from south-southwestLight air, 1 m/s from south-southwest
Saturday 03:00 Fog 14° 0 mm Light breeze, 2 m/s from west-northwestLight breeze, 2 m/s from west-northwest
Saturday 04:00 Fog 14° 0 – 0.1 mm Light air, 2 m/s from north-northwestLight air, 2 m/s from north-northwest
Saturday 05:00 Fog 14° 0 – 0.1 mm Light breeze, 3 m/s from north-northeastLight breeze, 3 m/s from north-northeast
Saturday 06:00 Fog 14° 0 mm Gentle breeze, 4 m/s from northeastGentle breeze, 4 m/s from northeast
Saturday 07:00 Cloudy 14° 0 – 0.1 mm Gentle breeze, 4 m/s from northGentle breeze, 4 m/s from north
Saturday 08:00 Cloudy 15° 0.1 mm Gentle breeze, 4 m/s from northGentle breeze, 4 m/s from north
Saturday 09:00 Rain 16° 0.1 – 0.8 mm Gentle breeze, 4 m/s from north-northeastGentle breeze, 4 m/s from north-northeast
Saturday 10:00 Rain 16° 0.3 – 2.0 mm Gentle breeze, 5 m/s from north-northeastGentle breeze, 5 m/s from north-northeast
Saturday 11:00 Heavy rain 17° 0.7 – 1.5 mm Gentle breeze, 4 m/s from north-northeastGentle breeze, 4 m/s from north-northeast
Saturday 12:00 Heavy rain 17° 0.8 – 1.3 mm Light breeze, 4 m/s from north-northeastLight breeze, 4 m/s from north-northeast
Saturday 13:00 Rain showers 17° 0.2 – 0.8 mm Gentle breeze, 4 m/s from northGentle breeze, 4 m/s from north
Saturday 14:00 Cloudy 18° 0 – 0.1 mm Light breeze, 3 m/s from northLight breeze, 3 m/s from north
Saturday 15:00 Cloudy 18° 0 – 0.1 mm Light breeze, 3 m/s from east-northeastLight breeze, 3 m/s from east-northeast
Saturday 16:00 Cloudy 18° 0 – 0.2 mm Light air, 2 m/s from north-northeastLight air, 2 m/s from north-northeast
Saturday 17:00 Rain 18° 0.1 – 1.4 mm Calm, 0 m/sCalm, 0 m/s
Saturday 18:00 Rain 17° 0.4 – 1.1 mm Light air, 2 m/s from southLight air, 2 m/s from south
Saturday 19:00 Rain 16° 0.2 – 0.8 mm Light breeze, 4 m/s from southLight breeze, 4 m/s from south

see http://www.yr.no/place/Ireland/Leinster/Arklow/hour_by_hour.html

Larbre34 · 17-07-2014 8:07pm

^ Really.

M.T. Cranium · 17-07-2014 8:26pm

keith16 wrote: »

Aren't you supposed to be on holidays? :pac:

I am surprised it will hit Dublin so late in the morning. Would I be right in saying it is a relatively slow moving system compared to other, traditional systems that move across the country from West to East?

Well, I will go into full holiday out of town off the internet mode later this month or for two weeks in August. We haven't quite nailed down the details for that. For July, I feel like I am in holiday mode as the weather here is very hot and sunny day after day, and I haven't been on line very much except for this event. I guess my partial holiday is on hold from now to Sunday, in any case being a golf fan I have that on in the background.

As to the other question, this system is moving at a normal rate for south to north moving systems, until Monday at least the further motion of systems will become slower and almost chaotic as a cyclonic pattern develops over Britain.

Going back to prepare an updated forecast, next move for me will be to update the boards forecast around 9 p.m.

SeaBreezes · 17-07-2014 8:38pm

Can hear the rumbles in the distance from the old head of kinsale..

Kermit.de.frog · 17-07-2014 8:42pm

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Can hear the rumbles in the distance from the old head of kinsale..

sunbabe08 · 17-07-2014 8:49pm

Bring it on!!!!

And seeing all the lovely bright colours on the rain radar!!

Very Warm, Thunderstorms, Flash flooding - Friday through weekend

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