Corona Virus & cycling impact (see mode note post 1322)

at1withmyself · 27-02-2020 09:40PM #1

Just seen that the UAE tour has been finished up today due to the virus. That's shortened by 2 stages.

Also talk now of races in northern Italy being scoped for cancellation. I imagine more will follow in neighbouring countries. Even the big 3 tours must be reviewing the situation now.

Its a tough one, as much as I enjoy watching cycling I think it's the right decision for the riders & teams.

https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/final-uae-tour-stages-called-off-over-coronavirus-fears/

27-02-2020 09:58PM

Yeah right call I think and the GC was over. Bizarre changes to the route in that race though, they had to do the same climb two days this week.

In Italy we could be at risk of losing Strada Bianche which is next week and Milan San Remo, as well as some of the womens races and the Giro due to start in Hungary on May 9th.

I think some riders have already changed their programs in case the Italian races are called off, Wout Van Aert is one of them.

I want to see bike racing but not at the cost of anyone's health.

The other thing I saw mentioned briefly somewhere was the effect on manufacturing of bikes and components in China.

triggermortis · 27-02-2020 10:03PM

Deleted User wrote: »

The other thing I saw mentioned briefly somewhere was the effect on manufacturing of bikes and components in China.

I was in a shop today and the staff there were mentioning the same. Might be a good time to stock up on parts before prices rise

Steve SilverMint · 27-02-2020 10:56PM

Reports two participants from Italian team have tested positive.

Kaisr Sose · 27-02-2020 11:08PM

When I heard of the outbreak in Northern Italy Immediately thought that's going to impact on Milan San Remo. Long time away but it may be cancelled due to the gathering of people to watch it along the route

Steve SilverMint · 27-02-2020 11:16PM

Kaisr Sose wrote: »

When I heard of the outbreak in Northern Italy Immediately thought that's going to impact on Milan San Remo. Long time away but it may be cancelled due to the gathering of people to watch it along the route

Strade Bianche is 7th March they’ll have to call on that soon. I expect to see Italian races cancelled.

kenmc · 27-02-2020 11:30PM

Steve SilverMint wrote: »

Reports two participants from Italian team have tested positive.

Bennet and Dunbar being tested, among others https://www.rte.ie/amp/1118069/

28-02-2020 12:11AM

Milan San Remo had some doubts earlier this year due to the state of the Poggio.

https://www.cyclingweekly.com/news/racing/milan-san-remo-doubt-e10-million-poggio-repair-hangs-balance-445781

Ouch for RCS if they footed the bill for repairs and the race was called off.

Daroxtar · 28-02-2020 06:24AM

On a more local level, if the virus arrives here then club spins and all the associated spluttering and snotting will have to be reassessed

harringtonp · 28-02-2020 07:24AM

Yes. Cycling news had just mentioned covid 19 fears but then saw on BBC last night that 2 Italian riders tested positive

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cycling/51667939

Makes me think that the number of reported cases is only the tip of the iceberg, especially in less developed countries.

I'd also presumed that cycling being outdoors and moving may not be too contagious an environment. But thinking more about it , compact bunches with guys riding and breathing hard, spitting and snotting could potentially be lethal.

Guess if you are under the weather you won't be cycling but if it's contagious before symptoms emerge and can be transmitted in an apparently healthy state that's another story.

1bryan · 28-02-2020 08:28AM

I would suggest that if, and when, covid-19 arrives in Ireland in earnest, cyclists won't be among the most at-risk groups.

cdaly_ · 28-02-2020 08:58AM

harringtonp wrote: »

Yes. Cycling news had just mentioned covid 19 fears but then saw on BBC last night that 2 Italian riders tested positive

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cycling/51667939

Makes me think that the number of reported cases is only the tip of the iceberg, especially in less developed countries.

I'd also presumed that cycling being outdoors and moving may not be too contagious an environment. But thinking more about it , compact bunches with guys riding and breathing hard, spitting and snotting could potentially be lethal.

Guess if you are under the weather you won't be cycling but if it's contagious before symptoms emerge and can be transmitted in an apparently healthy state that's another story.

Ride Audax. Hundreds of km pretty much on your own...

fat bloke · 28-02-2020 09:09AM

UAE tour cancelled. Declan Quigley has tweeted that they're on lockdown in the Crowne Plaza, Abu Dhabi.

It's easy to be blasé and think "not so bad!" but fcuk it, a hotel room is a hotel room, and I wouldn't fancy being restricted to the confines of one for a fortnight!

RobertFoster · 28-02-2020 09:35AM

cdaly_ wrote: »

Ride Audax. Hundreds of km pretty much on your own...

Good practice for the post apocalypse too.

dakar · 28-02-2020 10:14AM

1bryan wrote: »

I would suggest that if, and when, covid-19 arrives in Ireland in earnest, cyclists won't be among the most at-risk groups.

To a certain extent, you are correct, reasonably fit healthy individuals with robust immune systems are less likely to suffer catastrophic effects from catching coronavirus. I’ve seen this a good bit online, ‘Ah sure it’s just like a bad flu, I’ll be grand...’

But they are no less likely to catch it and, as pointed out, on a spin with mates who are coughing and clearing phlegm, maybe even a bit more likely in some circumstances.

The issue is that, if you do pick it up, someone you pass it to, even in the days before you realise you have it, might have much more serious consequences. Or someone they pass it on to. From the data so far, the mortality rates in the elderly (70+, and even more so from 80+) are exponentially higher than the young fit population.

The idea is to minimise the spread in the general population to protect the more vulnerable members. So a group spin is pretty minor in the great scheme of things, but a lot of minor changes might help curtail the spread.

[preach/]

daragh_ · 28-02-2020 10:37AM

Good advice - especially for those of us with elderly parents.

1bryan · 28-02-2020 11:06AM

dakar wrote: »

The issue is that, if you do pick it up, someone you pass it to, even in the days before you realise you have it, might have much more serious consequences. Or someone they pass it on to. From the data so far, the mortality rates in the elderly (70+, and even more so from 80+) are exponentially higher than the young fit population.

[preach/]

scaremongering much?

your statement needs to be qualified. Exponentially higher, but exponentially higher than very small numbers. And, the vast majority with pre-existing, underlying conditions (respiratory, diabetes, and particularly dangerous for smokers).

Its right to take precautions, and your comment about needing to be careful about passing it on to older folks, is spot on. But lets not get carried away. This isn't going to wipe out everyone over 70.

dakar · 28-02-2020 11:25AM

1bryan wrote: »

scaremongering much?

your statement needs to be qualified. Exponentially higher, but exponentially higher than very small numbers. And, the vast majority with pre-existing, underlying conditions (respiratory, diabetes, and particularly dangerous for smokers).

Its right to take precautions, and your comment about needing to be careful about passing it on to older folks, is spot on. But lets not get carried away. This isn't going to wipe out everyone over 70.

CCDC figures, the most reliable ones I’ve seen so far, as they have the biggest sample size.

No, not everyone over 70, or 80, but 8% and 14.8% are pretty high figures. And ok, the sample size is relatively small (for now) but 1:500 mortality rate for the 20-49 age group vs 1:7 for the 80+ group is an exponential difference.

You’re correct about co-morbidity too, the figures are there for those.

Being careful about passing it on to older folks means being careful about passing it on full stop. You might not be worried about an individual in your life, but can you say that about everyone you come in contact with?

I have no interest in scaremongering, but a series of small changes can make a big difference.

1bryan · 28-02-2020 12:19PM

dakar wrote: »

CCDC figures, the most reliable ones I’ve seen so far, as they have the biggest sample size.

No, not everyone over 70, or 80, but 8% and 14.8% are pretty high figures. And ok, the sample size is relatively small (for now) but 1:500 mortality rate for the 20-49 age group vs 1:7 for the 80+ group is an exponential difference.

You’re correct about co-morbidity too, the figures are there for those.

Being careful about passing it on to older folks means being careful about passing it on full stop. You might not be worried about an individual in your life, but can you say that about everyone you come in contact with?

I have no interest in scaremongering, but a series of small changes can make a big difference.

Where do you draw the line? Based on the figures above, it's far less impactful across different age demographics than the common flu (albeit incorporating more than 1 strain - again, sourcing info from the CDC), yet we don't cancel club rides for that?

dakar · 28-02-2020 12:48PM

1bryan wrote: »

Where do you draw the line? Based on the figures above, it's far less impactful across different age demographics than the common flu (albeit incorporating more than 1 strain - again, sourcing info from the CDC), yet we don't cancel club rides for that?

And btw, your snide, personal attack on me didn't go unnoticed.

Apologies, that genuinely wasn’t intended to be personal. I’ll depersonalise it, one may not be worried about the direct impact on one’s immediate circle.

And I draw the line at minor changes that I can make to my life that have minimal impact on my life, but might have a huge impact on someone else’s. As I would if I had the flu.

And with that, I’ll withdraw gracefully. Have a good day.

ednwireland · 28-02-2020 03:37PM

if theres a lot of cases appearing over the next few weeks i can see a lot of events beemn cancelled until the summer.

CramCycle · 28-02-2020 04:15PM

I am more concerned about the affect on local races. Selfish as I am.

harringtonp · 28-02-2020 04:20PM

Could end up with an end of season top heavy program. Which may not necessarily be a bad thing...

Mugser · 28-02-2020 07:26PM

harringtonp wrote: »

Could end up with an end of season top heavy program. Which may not necessarily be a bad thing...

Definitely a glass half-full view :rolleyes::rolleyes:

28-02-2020 08:26PM

I must confess to having doubts about the 312.

CramCycle · 28-02-2020 10:48PM

harringtonp wrote: »

Could end up with an end of season top heavy program. Which may not necessarily be a bad thing...

I don't see it, people are on holidays, back to school, or kids are starting back. I imagine that cancelled races will struggle to get back on the calendar. I mean I'd love it but I don't see it.

a148pro · 29-02-2020 12:13AM

I foolishly thought this would be a thread about how much cycling we could do when the country shut down!

CramCycle · 29-02-2020 12:57AM

a148pro wrote: »

I foolishly thought this would be a thread about how much cycling we could do when the country shut down!

It could be, if your single. If work closes down I would plan to just f off up the hills every day but now that there are mini people.in my house I wouldn't be let. Not sure why though.

a148pro · 29-02-2020 08:53AM

CramCycle wrote: »

It could be, if your single. If work closes down I would plan to just f off up the hills every day but now that there are mini people.in my house I wouldn't be let. Not sure why though.

I find the presence of the mini people makes the need to hit the hills all the stronger

dahat · 29-02-2020 10:32AM

As I work for a company that supplies various PPE items to factories there is real panic & short supply of essential items starting to happen. If workplaces don't shut due to the virus the lack of various PPE will cause them to shut temporarily.

magicbastarder · 29-02-2020 10:44AM

i could probably take a rough guess as to where a hell of a lot of that PPE is made.

Corona Virus & cycling impact (see mode note post 1322)

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