Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

Marengo · 17-01-2019 11:31pm

Now we’re looking at 2 bad runs out of 8. In anyone’s book that’s a trend

YanSno · 17-01-2019 11:32pm

kittyn wrote: »

What a run from the GFS ðŸ˜±ðŸ¥¶ðŸ¥¶

Yeah for sure very cold uppers South East UK

SleetAndSnow · 17-01-2019 11:36pm

-12 uppers just tipping the wexford coast at 222?

Vxlkss · 17-01-2019 11:37pm

18Z is great! I think the only problem is the lack of the E wind that comes in around the 25th, however it could paste Leinster, I do think small adjustments are needed but what a run!

Marengo · 17-01-2019 11:38pm

Vxlkss wrote: »

18Z is great! I think the only problem is the lack of the E wind that comes in around the 25th, however it could paste Leinster, I do think small adjustments are needed but what a run!

Borderline epic;)

sryanbruen · 17-01-2019 11:39pm

YanSno wrote: »

Yeah for sure very cold uppers South East UK

Definitely not getting the hype on this 18z run, looks very marginal for the east of Ireland with the UK in the firing line.

sdanseo · 17-01-2019 11:42pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

Definitely not getting the hype on this 18z run, looks very marginal for the east of Ireland with the UK in the firing line.

Completely agree, upper temps are not low enough for any sort of snow over Ireland up to +200hrs, which is so far out of range as to be pointless to look at.

Run to run differences aside though, the overall trend continues to be cold across all models. In another week I think it will be very clear that we are headed into the freezer for an extended stay.

pad199207 · 17-01-2019 11:46pm

All the glossy goodies are too far out I’m afraid. Still nothing in the reliable. The trend is cold for next week but wether it’s colder or just the same nuisance cold we have now, remains to be seen.

I’d toast the 18z if I was in England yeah..

Vxlkss · 17-01-2019 11:50pm

tbh, i was happy with the 18z because it's still showing Monday night/Tuesdays event lol

YanSno · 17-01-2019 11:51pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

Definitely not getting the hype on this 18z run, looks very marginal for the east of Ireland with the UK in the firing line.

Exactly what i expected that HP south west of Ireland is not going anywhere it will topple over and build back up.

sryanbruen · 18-01-2019 12:08am

GFS 18z in fact reminded me of February 2012 a lot....

archives-2012-2-3-12-1.png?

Marengo · 18-01-2019 12:13am

sryanbruen wrote: »

GFS 18z in fact reminded me of February 2012 a lot....

For me the low uppers seem that bit closer, in over Leinster. Could be borderline Sryan

It’s amazing how there is very different opinion among the most respected posters:)

Marengo · 18-01-2019 12:16am

There’s extra hype/excitement as we’ve been bored by the winter weather so far and there’s bound to be huge speculation at any hinted change.

Meteorite58 · 18-01-2019 12:16am

Wintry cold night out there with a rain, sleet and snow mix

nacho libre · 18-01-2019 12:16am

Go on Sryan keep being negative;)

Until that piece of vortex over Canada shifts favourably, we seem to be stuck with a high that will hover too close or topple over us because it can't retrogress sufficently northwards to allow proper sustained cold to take hold over all of Ireland. There was an outside chance of it getting to Scandanavia, but i don't think that will happen

However on the 27th parts of the east make get some snowfall,-9- to -11 upper temps are more than enough. There is no sign of a 1991 or 1987 type event for Ireland just yet. Maybe it will happen in February, but then the talk will be of February being too late for snow:pac:

mickger844posts · 18-01-2019 12:19am

I wouldn't be reading much into that GFS 18z run. Frankly some of its output since the SSW event has been laughable. As always the trend is your friend and always better to have the ECM on board. Hopefully the ECM 0Z will continue the trend. Still all to play for.

Marengo · 18-01-2019 12:29am

nacho libre wrote: »

Go on Sryan keep being negative;)

Until that piece of vortex over Canada shifts favourably, we seem to be stuck with a high that will hover too close or topple over us because it can't retrogress sufficently northwards to allow proper sustained cold to take hold over all of Ireland. There was an outside chance of it getting to Scandanavia, but i don't think that will happen

However on the 27th parts of the east make get some snowfall,-9- to -11 upper temps are more than enough. There is no sign of a 1991 or 1987 type event for Ireland just yet. Maybe it will happen in February, but then the talk will be of February being too late for snow:pac:

Do you think Nacho that the American eastern seaboard storm could resolve this lobe of Canadian vortex?

vid36 · 18-01-2019 12:46am

Watching some white gold fall, the first time this winter.( North East Galway).

nacho libre · 18-01-2019 12:47am

Marengo wrote: »

Do you think Nacho that the American eastern seaboard storm could resolve this lobe of Canadian vortex?

The storm hanging back would increases our chances of the high to the South west not eventually toppling in on us and cutting off the cold air source. Maybe the mjo going into phase 6 or seven along with a weak el nino pattern will lead to northern Blocking in February. I could be wrong, but i don't think the SSW is going to deliver the goods now in terms of proper northern blocking, Gaoth Laidir was right it seems about the reversal only being good enough to produce a mid Atlantic high.

John.Icy · 18-01-2019 1:00am

Great 18Z for parts of the UK. Very snowy.

Agreed with others re: it not being anything great for these shores. Takes till +200 for the cold to really get here and that is not a timeframe to be raving over considering the model output of the last few days and the frequency of things changing. As nice as it is to see an easterly as a strong possibility, we just keep getting modelled too close to the edge. Outside of a frame or to on that 18Z we are sitting under the arm of heights that are feeding the developing Scandi.

As long as there is a mass of high pressure right to our SW we will struggle to lock in a snowy pattern here.

monster1 · 18-01-2019 1:03am

Some snow falling here Midwest roscommon.

Larbre34 · 18-01-2019 1:06am

One thing I noticed out and about in Dublin this evening, that I hadn't noticed in many years, was smog.

At first I thought there might have been a blaze somewhere and it was hanging about in the still dank air but I was in Blackrock, Ranelagh and Lucan and it was the same experience in all places, a light smoke haze with a coal/turf odour. Should we be looking at tougher enforcement of the smokeless fuel laws, or was it just rare conditions that made the worst of it?

Danno · 18-01-2019 1:06am

Light snow flurry in Durrow, Laois County just now. 2.8c but dewpoints are -0.5c.

FrDougalMcguire · 18-01-2019 1:27am

Snowing in Charlestown Co Mayo now. Wet stuff but snowing!

mountainy man · 18-01-2019 1:36am

Snowing here SE Sligo and starting to stick.

FrDougalMcguire · 18-01-2019 1:37am

https://www.dropbox.com/s/c7n037uw1aoqold/20190118_002129.mp4?dl=0

pauldry · 18-01-2019 2:12am

snow and sleet n Sligo town

John.Icy · 18-01-2019 2:51am

Anyone very in tune with wildlife and nature...What on earth is going on in bird land lately??? Mild nights, cold nights...out in force singing every night. Doesn't start till around 1am either. So strange. Can't ever recall a prolonged period like this. Even during summers if I was up all night you wouldn't start hearing them till 4am or later.

igCorcaigh · 18-01-2019 4:10am

Lot of insect and spider life too, bless 'em.

Heavy rain here in Cork. The dry spell has ended.

force eleven · 18-01-2019 7:43am

Even though colder weather does now look on the way this time next week, it may be a glancing blow for us from the east, with coldest weather diving Southwest wards across England and Wales, missing us. I'm taking a break from the models for two days and will hope to see a correction westward.

Pangea · 18-01-2019 8:02am

Wet snow/ Sleet falling here in SW Donegal. From photos I seen online nearby higher roads have snow/wet snow on them and looks quite dangerous.

SleetAndSnow · 18-01-2019 8:33am

Warner in cork city today then yesterday, temps seems to have risen a bit over nice. 4/5 degrees from the 2 degrees last night. Wet aswell!

Wine Goddess · 18-01-2019 8:37am

MajesticDonkey wrote: »

I'm heading to Malaga on Thursday for a long weekend, anyone have any idea what it'll be like there?

I was there first week of January and weather was gorgeous, sunny, and 20c! Couldn't believe it! Bring your sunglasses, and a jacket as gets cold at night. Enjoy, it's a wonderful place.

Snowbiee21 · 18-01-2019 8:37am

Assuming the modules went pear shaped last night with no talk

sryanbruen · 18-01-2019 8:40am

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

Assuming the modules went pear shaped last night with no talk

There was talk. There was some unnecessary hype on here. It was all favouring the UK with the east of Ireland very marginal pre-200 hours on the GFS 18z whilst we’d have no chance with the ECM 12z. Would be very disappointing.

This morning’s runs aren’t the greatest either.

icesnowfrost · 18-01-2019 8:49am

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

Assuming the modules went pear shaped last night with no talk

Not pear shaped but a cold weather theme is still on the cards just how cold is the question. It could be that we won’t know for sure how next week will be looking until Sunday but I’d say many parts of Ireland will see snowfall next week at least high parts anyway. Interesting model watching over the next few days.

Pangea · 18-01-2019 9:08am

Road conditions on Barnesmore Gap
https://www.facebook.com/115071508505532/posts/2293360017343326/

Zorya · 18-01-2019 9:14am

Whoa :eek: As the light dawns I'm squinting out the window thinking, why are the hills so bright, what's that on the garden, Is that SNOW!? Why yes, yes it is! I did not expect that. (NW)

irishrover99 · 18-01-2019 9:19am

I can't wait to see all the facebook posts this morning about the half a cm of snow that fell last night.
"have te make a snowman in me pi-jamis"

Villain · 18-01-2019 9:21am

Very finely balanced on overnight charts and really could go either way still.

I think also bear in mind that we do have some banter in here, the more serious chat is in the model thread.

The cold is going to knock on our door but will it be enough to open it??

Pangea · 18-01-2019 9:24am

Posted by Emmet Kennedy on Facebook
Up croagh.. Dunkineely/inver stay well clear!

irishrover99 · 18-01-2019 9:26am

Villain wrote: »

Very finely balanced on overnight charts and really could go either way still.

I think also bear in mind that we do have some banter in here, the more serious chat is in the model thread.

The cold is going to knock on our door but will it be enough to open it??

Exactly, its only banter.
Sure who could take Irish weather that seriously

;)

KingdomRushed · 18-01-2019 9:40am

Villain wrote: »

Very finely balanced on overnight charts and really could go either way still.

I think also bear in mind that we do have some banter in here, the more serious chat is in the model thread.

The cold is going to knock on our door but will it be enough to open it??

Yeah a lot of windy trash in the GFS ensembles this morning suggesting it’s all very knife edge. I think ECM is good and cold but not particularly snowy until the very last frame which shows a slider which could work for us

Gaoth Laidir · 18-01-2019 10:09am

Knock synops reporting 1 cm of patchy wet snow cover this morning.

pauldry · 18-01-2019 10:10am

So was last nights snow all we get? Still some near Boylw but only on mountains in Sligo now

KingdomRushed · 18-01-2019 10:17am

pauldry wrote: »

So was last nights snow all we get? Still some near Boylw but only on mountains in Sligo now

There will deffo be snow chances ongoing for next few weeks

Franz Von Peppercorn · 18-01-2019 10:24am

There are charts that show the U.K. but not ireland in the freezer. Misery. Slight deviation West of a thousand mile cool pool in next chart. Ecstasy. Slight deviations east again. Misery.

So it goes.

An Ri rua · 18-01-2019 10:37am

We cannot depend on the Government. For the love of God, Ireland and all that's decent in this world, if you care about your fellow man....
Organise a van between friends and head to Donegal to help!
A bread van!!

YanSno · 18-01-2019 10:50am

Some people were calling these charts last night the best they've seen and others were getting carried away while i insisted we are not going to have anything out the ordinary. NAO well into positive and chances for a blocking has diminished.

icesnowfrost · 18-01-2019 10:52am

YanSno wrote: »

Some people were calling these charts last night the best they've seen and others were getting carried away while i insisted we are not going to have anything out the ordinary. NAO well into positive and chances for a blocking has diminished.

Saying it’s diminished is like me saying it’s 100% going to snow next week in my garden

Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

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