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Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

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    #2192
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Not the most positive T144hr chart but let's see what happens and the ENS before passing any serious judgement!

    ECM1-144.GIF


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    #2193
    Marengo
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,544 ✭✭✭Marengo


    Yes high further south than GFS 144


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    #2194
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Marengo wrote: »
    Yes high further south than GFS 144
    Still chilly thought and maybe just a delayed cold evolution? Anyway- the main theme is a trend to colder , from the west or east! Detail very uncertain but nothing too extreme on the cards for the moment.


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    #2195
    Marengo
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,544 ✭✭✭Marengo


    ECM 168hrs has no easterly. A slack low pressure with a northerly flow. Sleety.

    ECM1-168.GIF


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    #2196
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,656 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Marengo wrote: »
    ECM 168hrs has no easterly. A slack low pressure with a northerly flow. Sleety.

    ECM1-168.GIF

    yes, but what happens after that maybe interesting- a slow crawl to an easterly? Also do you notice what's happening in Scandanvia


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    #2197
    SleetAndSnow
    Registered Users Posts: 4,678 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    nacho libre wrote: »
    yes, but what happens after that maybe interesting- a slow crawl to an easterly? Also do you notice what's happening in Scandanvia

    Would you mind explaining what is happening in Scandinavia on that picture? Is it that heights are building (lighter shade) which will push the coldness over to us? Thanks :)


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    #2198
    Snowbiee21
    Registered Users Posts: 788 ✭✭✭Snowbiee21


    Jesus this model watching is painful atm , as gonzo said earlier it’s all up in the air . I think personally give it a day or two


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    #2199
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    The air is cold enough to our northeast :O

    ECM1-216.GIF


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    #2200
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,656 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    SleetAndSnow wrote: »
    Would you mind explaining what is happening in Scandinavia on that picture? Is it that heights are building (lighter shade) which will push the coldness over to us? Thanks :)

    it has a wiff of 1987, if we could just tap into that air to the north east you allude to. It's painful model watching, we are close to getting something good, but it could easily go pear shaped. Contrast it with February last year where there was model consensus, bar one blip about the snowy cold taking hold


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    #2201
    Marengo
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,544 ✭✭✭Marengo


    Sleety_Rain wrote: »
    The air is cold enough to our northeast :O

    That's an interesting chart. As Nacho Libre pointed out at 192H you notice the Scandi heights starting to build. Really evident here.


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    #2202
    SleetAndSnow
    Registered Users Posts: 4,678 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    nacho libre wrote: »
    it has a wiff of 1987, if we could just tap into that air to the north east you allude to. It's painful model watching, we are close to getting something good, but it could easily go pear shaped. Contrast it with February last year where there was model consensus, bar one blip about the snowy cold taking hold

    Thanks for that! :)


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    #2203
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,523 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    nacho libre wrote: »
    it has a wiff of 1987, if we could just tap into that air to the north east you allude to. It's painful model watching, we are close to getting something good, but it could easily go pear shaped. Contrast it with February last year where there was model consensus, bar one blip about the snowy cold taking hold

    There was also a quick tropospheric response with perfect downwelling.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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    #2204
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,656 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    There was also a quick tropospheric response with perfect downwelling.

    Yes, that's what i meant, so it led to model consistency, this has been a drip drip downards event, but not enough to build a Greenland High. Let's just hope the Scandi high develops and can ridge a bit westwards, so we can tap into the very cold uppers. It might be 1987 revisited then.

    I would not bank on it happening, though.


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    #2205
    Marengo
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,544 ✭✭✭Marengo


    nacho libre wrote: »
    Yes, that's what i meant, so it led to model consistency, this has been a drip drip downards event, but not enough to build a Greenland High. Let's just hope the Scandi high develops and can ridge a bit westwards, so we can tap into the very cold uppers. It might be 1987 revisited then.

    I would not bank on it happening, though.

    Mid February 1947 had a seriously strong Scandi high which directed traffic westwards :) Most of the month was like that with low pressure approaching from the south bringing about several 'Emmas' until the 10th, 11th March. Copious amounts of the white stuff :)

    We're due a Scandi high in early/mid Feb.


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    #2206
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,125 ✭✭✭pad199207


    If there ever was an insult 536-BE782-05-F1-4-BC6-8-BB0-9781-E23-E225-B.gif


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    #2207
    Marengo
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,544 ✭✭✭Marengo


    pad199207 wrote: »
    If there ever was an insult 536-BE782-05-F1-4-BC6-8-BB0-9781-E23-E225-B.gif

    Talk about being given the finger:D


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    #2208
    squarecircles
    Registered Users Posts: 1,991 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    thats the ever present finger of doom,funny sometimes to watch the -5 and -10 hpa sink southwards the other side of it making its way almost to the azores,incredible country,the co ordinates of ireland are just unreal.


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    #2209
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,523 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    To think it was this time last year that I had my first snow of the Winter and since March 2016 with huge flakes. It was a very exciting night.

    https://twitter.com/SnowbieWx/status/1078623776278020096

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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    #2210
    MidMan25
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,027 ✭✭✭MidMan25


    -14C today here in Western Canada and light snowfall all day. Even colder weather forecast for tomorrow with a high of -18C and not reaching that until lunch time, low of -21C.


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    #2211
    Cork Boy 53
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,829 ✭✭✭Cork Boy 53


    MidMan25 wrote: »
    -14C today here in Western Canada and light snowfall all day. Even colder weather forecast for tomorrow with a high of -18C and not reaching that until lunch time, low of -21C.

    Would that be at high altitude in the Rockies?


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    #2212
    MidMan25
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,027 ✭✭✭MidMan25


    Cork Boy 53 wrote: »
    Would that be at high altitude in the Rockies?

    The opposite actually. In the prairies east of the Rockies. I'm going to the Rockies tomorrow and it should be a lot warmer, highs of -5/-7 and lows only a few degrees less.


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    #2213
    Manitoban
    Registered Users Posts: 126 ✭✭Manitoban


    MidMan25 wrote: »
    The opposite actually. In the prairies east of the Rockies. I'm going to the Rockies tomorrow and it should be a lot warmer, highs of -5/-7 and lows only a few degrees less.

    I lived in Brandon, Manitoba for a while, I have never experienced anything like it in my life. Wind chill of -54 actually took the breath away from my kids when we got out of the car.


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    #2214
    MidMan25
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,027 ✭✭✭MidMan25


    Manitoban wrote: »
    I lived in Brandon, Manitoba for a while, I have never experienced anything like it in my life. Wind chill of -54 actually took the breath away from my kids when we got out of the car.

    Was just going to ask was that where your name came from :) I think there would be even colder than where I am due to being that bit further east. The Rockies don't seem to get as cold due to being closer to the pacific coast, they seem to act as a barrier against milder air and funnel down the artic air into Alberta / Saskatchewan.


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    #2215
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,656 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    The craziest things i saw over there in Manitoba was a guy with very long hair getting on a bus in t- shirt and shorts!! It was -10 at the time, with a strong and gutsy wind, which made it feel far colder. I had every part of me covered and I was still absolutely freezing.


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    #2216
    Cork Boy 53
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,829 ✭✭✭Cork Boy 53


    Never been there in winter but I have been in the Calgary area of Alberta in mid to late June and remember there being snow showers for a few days. Nothing unusual for them even at that time of year.


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    #2217
    Snowbiee21
    Registered Users Posts: 788 ✭✭✭Snowbiee21


    The freshening southerly winds will become strong southeasterly on Thursday night ahead of rain developing in the west. Temperatures will be below freezing in places and the rain will be preceded for a time by a fall of snow as it spreads eastwards across the country.
    From met Eirrean


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    #2218
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,357 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    nacho libre wrote: »
    The craziest things i saw over there in Manitoba was a guy with very long hair getting on a bus in t- shirt and shorts!! It was -10 at the time, with a strong and gutsy wind, which made it feel far colder. I had every part of me covered and I was still absolutely freezing.

    That is crazy, the mosquitoes can get at you so easily then. :pac::pac:


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    #2219
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,357 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    So I was just thinking, this last two weeks have been somewhat like visiting a fancy new restaurant and after half an hour wondering where the waiters were hanging out.


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    #2220
    kittyn
    Registered Users Posts: 366 ✭✭kittyn


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    So I was just thinking, this last two weeks have been somewhat like visiting a fancy new restaurant and after half an hour wondering where the waiters were hanging out.


    MT what are your thoughts on the current confusion with the various model outputs?


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    #2221
    Marengo
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,544 ✭✭✭Marengo


    GFS (generally feckin sh*te) 18Z starting to role out. Whatever way it will swing..


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