Cold snap Jan 10th onwards: Wintry Showers, Snow Accumulations for some

Kermit.de.frog · 08-01-2015 5:19am #1

Folks,

Snow showers becoming heavy and frequent in the northwest and north early Saturday morning should extend to many other places (but not all) during daylight hours with the potential for significant falls in the northwest particularly later Saturday evening. The far southeast could stay dry.

For Sunday it will be slightly milder with any showers dieing out and a thaw as a ridge of high pressure builds in - though frosty Sunday night. Lowest temperature around -2c away from high ground.

On Monday and Tuesday a new phase of polar maritime air returns with showers increasingly of snow widespread and heavy at times particularly on hills and in the west.

Temperatures generally between 3 or 4c in the east but lower further northwest and struggling above freezing where any snow settles. Ice restricted due to strong wind except Sunday night.

Winds mostly on the strong side, gales at times.

Depending on how things turn out for later next week this could be the beginning of a longer period of colder weather but that remains to be determined in the next couple of days.

More later.

JanuarySnowstor · 08-01-2015 7:59am

Agree fully with above potential

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 08-01-2015 9:28am

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Agree fully with above potential

A rare occurence indeed ! :pac::P

Only joking dude ! Will be interesting to see where showers crop up, there could be a few that make the trip inland !

MoodeRator · 08-01-2015 9:54am

Would love this to come to fruition, but how comes MT never mentioned such an event in today forecast form himself?

pauldry · 08-01-2015 10:19am

still not set in stone

only yesterday there was no talk of this.

if there are a few more good runs today we should be more confident

Harps · 08-01-2015 11:43am

A long sea track will mean significant modification at lower levels so even if 850hPa temps are cold I think sea level temps will be a few degrees above freezing. Pressure is also quite high away from the north so showers will likely be on the lighter side away from NW coasts. Potential is definitely there though and I'd be surprised if some inland northern areas don't see accumulating snow.

Can anyone recall a widespread snow event from a westerly? Probably more likely later in the season when SST's are colder

JanuarySnowstor · 08-01-2015 11:46am

Yes I can recall one which was significant
Early 80's in January but don't know exact year

Birdnuts · 08-01-2015 11:57am

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Yes I can recall one which was significant
Early 80's in January but don't know exact year

Jan and Feb 1984 had some snowy North Westerly outbreaks alright.

Elmer Blooker · 08-01-2015 12:07pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Yes I can recall one which was significant
Early 80's in January but don't know exact year

That would have been 1984. I vaguely remember a Sunday afternoon in the snow covered Phoenix Park and having looked up the 1984 calendar it has to be this day - the 15th. It is the only occasion that I'm aware of that a westerly gave lying snow in eastern areas? Christmas Day 2004 was close but it was wet snow that didn't stick.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840115.gif
edit: only saw Birdnut's post after I posted this.

AnotherYear · 08-01-2015 12:08pm

Snow warning for Northern Ireland from Valid from: 0600 on Sat 10 Jan 2015, Valid to: 1200 on Sun 11 Jan 2015

Heavy showers are likely across the warning area, these falling as snow at low levels across much of Scotland and Northern Ireland, but over high ground further south. Within the area there could be localised small snow accumulations away from immediate coasts at low levels in the north, whilst over high ground 5-15 cm may occur in places. Temperatures will fall significantly during Saturday, this also posing the risk of ice where showers occur.

As temperatures are expected to take a plunge, icy conditions are also likely on some roads. Snow showers will also be accompanied by strong or very strong winds and this will likely give blizzard conditions over higher ground, leading to treacherous driving conditions on higher routes.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1420848000&regionName=ni

ninebeanrows · 08-01-2015 12:37pm

Definite chance of snow with this westerly. Really low thicknesses.

Nonetheless probably be a transient affair, and mainly lie at night but this westerly is pushing east so rapidly that it isn't get modified as quickly as usual.

Areas inland by 20-30miles from the west coast probably stand the best chance, infact the showers that hit eastern areas during the very cold PM incursion will probably fall as snow.

highdef · 08-01-2015 12:49pm

And big changes in the latest GFS-P runs are showing the deep low pressure of the 14th now modelled further south, entering the SW and exiting the east with cold air remaining throughout in a line from about Galway to Dundalk/Belfast. Not in any way set in stone but it shows how volatile the situation is.

Even before this, the GFS-P is showing a fair bit of wintry precip in the strong westerly winds in the preceding days before the 14th with temps barely above freezing in many areas on the 13th.

Yet another fairly deep model is also modelled to pass to our south on the 15th and this is currently giving heavy snow for much of Wales and southern/middle England, away from southern coastal areas. If this low does materialise but passes 100 - 150km further north, it could give a dumping in many areas of Ireland.

And another low is showing up on the 17th which does have a more northerly track however the charts are still updating so not sure what this is currently forecast to deliver.....very much into FI at that point but what we need is a reoccurrence of these types of charts to keep hope that a trend may be appearing......straw clutching????

arctictree · 08-01-2015 12:49pm

I have to drive over the Wicklow gap on Saturday, hopefully it wont be too bad at that stage....

Squatter · 08-01-2015 1:10pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Yes I can recall one which was significant
Early 80's in January but don't know exact year

January 1982 - three short, intense snowstorms painted Ireland white for the best part of three weeks. The heaviest fall was a 36-hour blizzard which began on January 7th. I was in UCD that day and and had to leave my Honda 70 there for a week as the roads were impassible! No buses were runing and schools and colleges were closed for a week or more.

The east was the worst affected area, with Dublin City notching up some 2.5-ft in some parts, while the drifts rose to five and six feet in the suburbs. Hundreds of motorists were rescued from their cars on the Naas dual carriageway. There were a further two weighty falls over a ten day period which, combined with snow showers drifting in from the Irish Sea, added to the snow that had already frozen and compacted on the ground.

Michael O’Leary TD was appointed as ‘Minister for Snow’, to coordinate emergency services. Power cuts and bread and milk shortages were widespread for a while and thousands of sheep died in the Wicklow mountains.

Tabnabs · 08-01-2015 1:16pm

Squatter wrote: »

January 1982 - three short, intense snowstorms painted Ireland white for the best part of three weeks. The heaviest fall was a 36-hour blizzard which began on January 7th. I was in UCD that day and and had to leave my Honda 70 there for a week as the roads were impassible! No buses were runing and schools and colleges were closed for a week or more.

The east was the worst affected area, with Dublin City notching up some 2.5-ft in some parts, while the drifts rose to five and six feet in the suburbs. Hundreds of motorists were rescued from their cars on the Naas dual carriageway. There were a further two weighty falls over a ten day period which, combined with snow showers drifting in from the Irish Sea, added to the snow that had already frozen and compacted on the ground.

Michael O’Leary TD was appointed as ‘Minister for Snow’, to coordinate emergency services. Power cuts and bread and milk shortages were widespread for a while and thousands of sheep died in the Wicklow mountains.

And my old man made the front cover of the Irish Press, skiing in a field near Tibradden Cross (now the M50). Skiing in Ireland in the early 80s was considered exotic and even newsworthy :pac:

JanuarySnowstor · 08-01-2015 1:23pm

Not sure whether it was 82 or 84.
All I do remember was that the wind was westerly.
I also remember it turning southwesterly at times and that it lasted at least a week.

So a westerly can deliver if everything falls into place

Hooter23 · 08-01-2015 1:24pm

Weather on tv just said wintry showers on high ground...

delw · 08-01-2015 2:33pm

Evelyn just on there saying "perhaps some wintry showers" in NW on Sat,time will tell i suppose

Iancar29 · 08-01-2015 2:38pm

Yep , still looks like some light snow showers for the N and NW Saturday above 150m or so.

Tuesday is looking a bit more favorable for more widespread snow risk in the W and mindlands again . The odd shower making it to the Wicklow mountains .Still time for that setup to go either way though.

Redsunset · 08-01-2015 2:45pm

Yes some Wintriness around the weekend and even better fun and games perhaps for Tuesday

Some lovely Polar air racing across the Atlantic. Could be good.

Kermit.de.frog · 08-01-2015 4:00pm

I wouldn't be as pessimistic as Iancar29 regarding snowfall at low levels on Saturday nor how widespread precipitation may be given most of the variables are on the right side of favourable but I agree with Redsunset to a certain extent that the bigger "prize" potentially is from Monday night. Lots of interesting outcomes available for the following few days. It's not a question of whether we will get snow but rather how much and in what form because there is a hint around midweek that a secondary low from the southwest might interact with this air mass bringing potentially a longer period of sleet and snow to some places for a while. But it's too early for specifics.

12z's out soon. We can start going in to more detail at this stage for the weekend anyway.

But I know some get frustrated with the language we have to use here at times and how it can seem unclear, indecisive and confusing.

It will turn much colder this weekend with snow showers on Saturday and Saturday night. Most of these in the northwest and down along the west coast so places like Derry, Sligo, Galway, Limerick etc have a real chance of snow but some getting through to other areas as well. Temperatures during Saturday in low single figures. Slightly milder for Sunday and part of Monday before potentially even colder weather returns again bringing more snow showers and low temperatures.

Birdnuts · 08-01-2015 5:20pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Not sure whether it was 82 or 84.
All I do remember was that the wind was westerly.
I also remember it turning southwesterly at times and that it lasted at least a week.

So a westerly can deliver if everything falls into place

82 was an Easterly event, not a Westerly as progged next week.

Baggy Trousers · 08-01-2015 5:23pm

I don't know about you folks but I am getting real excited.
Good timing too, January can be a dreary month.
Even to see decent snow on the hills will make me happy.
Thanks!

JanuarySnowstor · 08-01-2015 9:58pm

Massive week coming up for weather fans.
At least one significant storm looks like making a direct hit mid next week.

Also and more importantly snow chances quite widespread from Saturday and esp next Tuesday.
I would think by Tuesday night most will have seen at least some white stuff.
Whether it will stick is uncertain though...

M.T. Cranium · 09-01-2015 1:54am

MoodeRator wrote: »

Would love this to come to fruition, but how comes MT never mentioned such an event in today forecast form himself?

Actually the forecast mentions wintry showers or mixed showers over the period but I do suspect it will be somewhat elevation-limited most of the time, meaning snow could fall above 150m or so. Should have been in to clarify this earlier but I have not been on line much since posting last night.

AnotherYear · 09-01-2015 2:04am

The Met office fc snow to low levels in NI, they have a warning out at present for it. Further South it will be more elevation based. I suppose will find out on Saturday one way or another.

Baggy Trousers · 09-01-2015 11:22am

So is it looking like snow on higher ground mainly for the next few days?

This is MT's update;

SATURDAY ... Windy and cold with passing wintry showers, some accumulations of snow possible on hills in Connacht, Ulster. Hail at lower elevations, but some sunny intervals also. Winds westerly 60-90 km/hr, highs 3-6 C.

SUNDAY ... Not as windy but continuing cold with passing wintry showers, morning lows -1 to +2 C and afternoon highs 5 to 7 C.

MONDAY ... Morning rain with milder temperatures for a few hours (7-9 C) then back into colder and blustery conditions with mixed wintry showers redeveloping, winds westerly 70-100 km/hr.

TUESDAY ... Breezy or windy at times, cold, passing wintry showers with some snow accumulations north and west on higher ground. Lows near -2 C and highs near 4 or 5 C.

Graces7 · 09-01-2015 11:53am

Watching this closely as I have a day away planned for Mizen Head tomorrow..I know we are not in direct line but small car does not like snow and ice and I cannot walk far!. Grateful for updates etc... South Kerry with so many mountains.

Larbre34 · 09-01-2015 12:17pm

I think the thread title should be Wintry showers, the current implies snow occuring widely and the evidence isn't there for it. Elevations in the north and west only.

pauldry · 09-01-2015 12:29pm

yes maybe snow tues morning but only hail and sleet tomorrow

Trogdor · 09-01-2015 12:40pm

I may be wrong but looking at the charts myself I would have thought that showers will be mostly snow tomorrow especially in the afternoon/evening (with the exception of windward coasts maybe).

AnotherYear · 09-01-2015 1:17pm

Larbre34 wrote: »

I think the thread title should be Wintry showers, the current implies snow occuring widely and the evidence isn't there for it. Elevations in the north and west only.

Snow widely down to lower levels in the North and with elevation further South.

Met office updated their snow warning for NI.
2015-1-10

Heavy showers are expected across the area, these falling as snow at low levels across much of Scotland and Northern Ireland, confined more to hills over Northern England. Occasional accumulations of 2-4 cm are likely, with more than 8 cm on high ground

Kermit.de.frog · 09-01-2015 1:21pm

There is little or no difference tomorrow north or south. All the variables are met for showers to be of snow well in to the early hours of Sunday morning. Don't worry

Baggy Trousers · 09-01-2015 1:22pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

There is little or no difference tomorrow north or south. All the variables are met for showers to be of snow well in to the early hours of Sunday morning. Don't worry

Good stuff, I am not sure I can handle another false alarm.

munsterlegend · 09-01-2015 1:33pm

Baggy Trousers wrote: »

Good stuff, I am not sure I can handle another false alarm.

Don't expect too much and youn won't be disappointed. snow in ireland is always a borderline event and down to the wire especially down here.

Kermit.de.frog · 09-01-2015 1:42pm

munsterlegend wrote: »

Don't expect too much and youn won't be disappointed. snow in ireland is always a borderline event and down to the wire especially down here.

As long as you are away from an immediate windward coast in the west your chances of seeing snow (even in Cork

) are quite high. Obviously showers by their nature are hit and miss but even allowing for this they should be plentiful and heavy and dragged to most places on a pretty strong wind. I think most will at least see snowfall tomorrow. As to whether it settles the northwest is the best hope there. But later tomorrow night there should be settling snow elsewhere as well.

Gone by daylight Sunday - next Tuesday and Wednesday looking ever more interesting though.

numilus cimbus · 09-01-2015 1:43pm

The thread title is misleading
A lot of people in populated urban coastal low ground locations which in all fairness is the majority, will only see sleety rain,bursts of wet snow at times in heavier showers and no accumulation except in the usual less populous favoured areas

The poster mountainyman way up in the hills in Sligo or is it donegal should do well

#nottooexcited

Iancar29 · 09-01-2015 1:46pm

numilus cimbus wrote: »

The thread title is misleading
A lot of people in populated urban coastal low ground locations which in all fairness is the majority, will only see sleety rain,bursts of wet snow at times in heavier showers and no accumulation except in the usual less populous favoured areas

The poster mountainyman way up in the hills in Sligo or is it donegal should do well

#nottooexcited

I agree, it should be, Snow showers with some accumulations for the N and NW. Wintry showers elsewhere away from hills.

Captain Snow · 09-01-2015 1:49pm

Hopefully there will be a lot of snow on higher ground. A good pasting for some.

mickmackey1 · 09-01-2015 1:52pm

Must be in a time warp, its 15.2 here at the mo

AnotherYear · 09-01-2015 4:18pm

The latest from met.ie mentions snow possibly down to low levels in Ulster/Connaught. And the met office warning for Northern Ireland gives 2-4cm of snow for low ground and up to 8cm over the hills. I live in Donegal (40m asl)away from the coast so I think I will see a dusting of snow maybe a little more but if I lived in Dublin I wouldn't be too excited about a dusting.

numilus cimbus · 09-01-2015 4:22pm

Ah yeah fully on board as regards Ulster inland north connaught
Though it won't be disruptive up there
Tuesday looks better

Oneiric 3 · 09-01-2015 4:27pm

That is one huge image Numilus

Same chart but at a more manageable size

Iancar29 · 09-01-2015 6:38pm

Thundersnow for Tuesday anyone? :cool:

pistolpetes11 · 09-01-2015 7:05pm

Title says showers not an all out snow event , move on please

Baggy Trousers · 10-01-2015 12:04am

So what time should we expect the snow showers in the west tomorrow?

Kermit.de.frog · 10-01-2015 1:22am

As Pistolpete says this is not an "event" and should not be treated as such. Any disruption should be limited to the north west.

From around 9 am on wards away from direct windward coasts that is when the cold air digs in and the showers turn to snow although they will be snow at higher levels before that and that is where the bulk of any accumulation of snow will be.

Through the day the showers will keep coming though the far southeast could stay dry throughout. Favored locations for any significant falls are the north west and just inland of the west coast in Connaught. Showers further east always more scattered and not as heavy.

Progressively colder through the day. To give some idea of the pace of the fall later on it's progged to be around 12c in the east circa 4am and down to 4 or 5c a couple of hours later. It's a fast steep transition. Temperatures gradually rising from the west during the early hours of Sunday morning with showers dieing out and the snow level rising again.

FWVT · 10-01-2015 1:33am

Sat image shows some low-topped open-cell convection extending from Greenland, with some Cbs in the area of -40 °C 500 temps. The ECMWF CAPE picks this up nicely, but is showing zero CAPE everywhere but the NW coast tomorrow, so showers will die out very quickly as the steering flow rotates. (Click Keyra for animation).

http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/spakort/ecm0125_millikort_msl_cape_gh1000-500_t850.html#

Gonzo · 10-01-2015 2:02am

basically the chance of seeing snow on the ground tomorrow in eastern locations is running at about 0%. Western and northern areas could see some slight dustings for a time before the mild arrives quickly afterwards.

Tuesday onwards sees a higher risk of snow across some western and northern areas, risk across the east still very low.

With 6 weeks to go still waiting very patiently for something to arrive from the east!

pistolpetes11 · 10-01-2015 2:33am

Gonzo wrote: »

basically the chance of seeing snow on the ground tomorrow in eastern locations is running at about 0%. Western and northern areas could see some slight dustings for a time before the mild arrives quickly afterwards.

Tuesday onwards sees a higher risk of snow across some western and northern areas, risk across the east still very low.

With 6 weeks to go still waiting very patiently for something to arrive from the east!

😛 6 weeks !

I'm waiting about 2 years

Pwindedd · 10-01-2015 2:35am

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

😛 6 weeks !

I'm waiting about 2 years

4 years here!

Cold snap Jan 10th onwards: Wintry Showers, Snow Accumulations for some

Comments