Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

PommieBast · 21-01-2021 10:29pm

LiamaDelta wrote: »

It's not a false negative, it's because the virus may not have been detectable at the time of the test.
If I get a test today (Thursday) ahead of a flight on Sunday, I may pick up the virus tomorrow and not show symptoms (if I do at all) until Wednesday or Thursday next week. So I will correctly have had a clear test, but then have the virus at a later point after arriving to my destination. I will have been missed by the process.

Where the 40% coming from? Show me the equation, as this percentage looks inflated.

LiamaDelta · 22-01-2021 10:41am

PommieBast wrote: »

Where the 40% coming from? Show me the equation, as this percentage looks inflated.

It's from the CMO and statistical modelling group, based on what they see in the information around positive cases and understanding the limitations of the system.

donkey balls · 22-01-2021 11:08am

The government just signed an SI letting pre hospital medics administer the vaccine with 5000 of them registered hopefully the rollout be a lot a quicker.

bk · 22-01-2021 12:54pm

Captain_Crash wrote: »

I’d argue that the virus spreading unchecked actually lessens the likelihood of mutation! There is some opinion that the measures taken in the last year have played a part in expediting the mutation of the virus.

I haven't come across that in any scientific literature, happy to be proven wrong, but it sounds rather bogus.

Viruses mutate all the time, it is basically what they do. Letting it rip wouldn't change that. Look at the flu, we don't really try and stop it's spread and it mutates all the time.

Or look at the Spainish Flu, nothing was done to try and stop it's spread and it mutated into a much more deadly strain during it's second wave.

Storm 10 · 22-01-2021 1:44pm

Spanish Prime minister announced today he wants no tourists into the Country until at least the end of Summer due to the Covid. Big blow to holiday companies and Airlines

faceman · 22-01-2021 3:03pm

Storm 10 wrote: »

Spanish Prime minister announced today he wants no tourists into the Country until at least the end of Summer due to the Covid. Big blow to holiday companies and Airlines

It wasn’t today, it was from a press conference on Tuesday and I believe the media have misrepresented what he was suggesting.

IngazZagni · 22-01-2021 3:58pm

faceman wrote: »

It wasn’t today, it was from a press conference on Tuesday and I believe the media have misrepresented what he was suggesting.

Are you sure? He said Spain won't welcome tourists until 70% of the population is vaccinated. That could be September sometime.

Now that doesn't mean everyone will be banned but will probably mean mandatory testing at the very least which will make travel unviable for most.

MrMusician18 · 22-01-2021 8:45pm

bk wrote: »

I haven't come across that in any scientific literature, happy to be proven wrong, but it sounds rather bogus.

Viruses mutate all the time, it is basically what they do. Letting it rip wouldn't change that. Look at the flu, we don't really try and stop it's spread and it mutates all the time.

Or look at the Spainish Flu, nothing was done to try and stop it's spread and it mutated into a much more deadly strain during it's second wave.

Viruses do indeed mutate all the time, they have the opportunity to mutate in each host they enter. Reducing the number of hosts reduces the opportunity for mutation.

The other problem is that if a vaccine is narrowly targeted then a resistant strain can quickly become to dominate the community

faceman · 22-01-2021 9:10pm

IngazZagni wrote: »

Are you sure? He said Spain won't welcome tourists until 70% of the population is vaccinated. That could be September sometime.

Now that doesn't mean everyone will be banned but will probably mean mandatory testing at the very least which will make travel unviable for most.

Yes I’m sure. I’m in Spain. Spain iwon’t close its borders in a widespread manner to other EU nations. Testing has been required since the rollout of the traffic light system.

In my local city, the hospitality staged a protest at the current restrictions (hospitality had to close yesterday). The protest was civil, covid compliant and supported by the mayor and other local government officials.

The hospitality industry is on the verge of collapse

BZ · 23-01-2021 9:55pm

https://www.newstalk.com/news/big-issue-in-aviation-industry-over-addressing-mental-wellbeing-of-pilots-1139707

Another impact Covid is having on the aviation business.

donkey balls · 24-01-2021 1:11pm

BZ wrote: »

https://www.newstalk.com/news/big-issue-in-aviation-industry-over-addressing-mental-wellbeing-of-pilots-1139707

Another impact Covid is having on the aviation business.

Its not only flight crew but CC check in staff ground crews the likes of Servisair and that other ground handling company name escapes me, No doubt people are going through a tough time at present but the current situation people find themselves in will eventually pass.

Marcusm · 24-01-2021 1:27pm

faceman wrote: »

It wasn’t today, it was from a press conference on Tuesday and I believe the media have misrepresented what he was suggesting.

This is correct, the Spanish tourism minister subsequently clarified that they wanted to start opening up by Spring to have as good a tousim sector during the summer as possble.

https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/covid-travel-spain-holiday-vaccine-b1791382.html

basill · 24-01-2021 2:46pm

donkey balls wrote: »

Its not only flight crew but CC check in staff ground crews the likes of Servisair and that other ground handling company name escapes me, No doubt people are going through a tough time at present but the current situation people find themselves in will eventually pass.

Not disagreeing with some of their sentiments at all....However, I have never ever heard of the two organisations that these two so called experts are from. It would have more weight if Newstalk was to get someone from EASA on and back it up with some scientific research.

kona · 25-01-2021 12:07am

basill wrote: »

Not disagreeing with some of their sentiments at all....However, I have never ever heard of the two organisations that these two so called experts are from. It would have more weight if Newstalk was to get someone from EASA on and back it up with some scientific research.

"Working " in the airline industry is a pile of ****e at the moment. Between that the tax bills and dealing with social "welfare" its incredible how resiliant some people are.
Anybody still hanging in there and doing their best in the circumstances deserves a hell of a lot more respect than they have been afforded.

gral6 · 25-01-2021 2:26pm

It looks like irish gov are going to nail the last nail into coffin of irish aviation tomorrow with their new regulations. Fair play to them, good job in burying this vital industry!

IngazZagni · 25-01-2021 2:39pm

gral6 wrote: »

It looks like irish gov are going to nail the last nail into coffin of irish aviation tomorrow with their new regulations. Fair play to them, good job in burying this vital industry!

Rubbish. What’s the alternative? Other Countries are or already have done the same.

gral6 · 25-01-2021 3:06pm

IngazZagni wrote: »

Rubbish. What’s the alternative? Other Countries are or already have done the same.

Rubbish is this stupid approach which killed a whole aviation industry.
I could not wait to see requirement of having PCR if you are travelling from the North.

PommieBast · 25-01-2021 3:10pm

IngazZagni wrote: »

Rubbish. What’s the alternative? Other Countries are or already have done the same.

If the government wants me to have a PCT plus 14-days quarantine AND expect me to pay for all of it myself, I'll be flying to Belfast rather than Dublin.

IngazZagni · 25-01-2021 3:55pm

PommieBast wrote: »

If the government wants me to have a PCT plus 14-days quarantine AND expect me to pay for all of it myself, I'll be flying to Belfast rather than Dublin.

I assume you are traveling as an essential worker? In which case you should be exempt from these new restrictions.

The UK look set to introduce similar measures. Of course there is always the Britain-Belfast-Republic route. Sadly selfish people will use this loophole and it’s a big chink in our covid defence armour. It’ll most likely prolong the pandemic on this island and delay when those of us who work in the industry, including myself can get back to work.

gral6 · 25-01-2021 4:18pm

IngazZagni wrote: »

The UK look set to introduce similar measures. Of course there is always the Britain-Belfast-Republic route. Sadly selfish people will use this loophole and it’s a big chink in our covid defence armour. It’ll most likely prolong the pandemic on this island and delay when those of us who work in the industry, including myself can get back to work.

With regulations like that in place, it is hard to expect that people who work in the industry will get back to work at all.

IngazZagni · 25-01-2021 4:23pm

gral6 wrote: »

With regulations like that in place, it is hard to expect that people who work in the industry will get back to work at all.

Not in the immediate short term but let’s not bury our head in the sand though. This is reality. Shut it down pretty much completely so we can reopen later this year.

I shared your opinion last year but now I feel we have no other choice. Allowing new variants to spread could be much, much worse for the industry going towards 2022.

PommieBast · 25-01-2021 5:00pm

IngazZagni wrote: »

I assume you are traveling as an essential worker? In which case you should be exempt from these new restrictions.

I have essential worker status but it would be a stretch to regard it as my reason for travel. My working assumption is that the UK authorities would not recognise the authorisation letter.

BigMoose · 25-01-2021 5:33pm

PommieBast wrote: »

I have essential worker status but it would be a stretch to regard it as my reason for travel. My working assumption is that the UK authorities would not recognise the authorisation letter.

If you're coming from the CTA I dont believe the UK authorities care. Their testing requirements don't apply to travel from Ireland. Obviously though coming home again is the issue.

PommieBast · 25-01-2021 6:04pm

BigMoose wrote: »

If you're coming from the CTA I dont believe the UK authorities care. Their testing requirements don't apply to travel from Ireland. Obviously though coming home again is the issue.

I know. Already out there and coming home is what I'm trying to sort out..

TeaPot918 · 25-01-2021 6:31pm

Whats the legality of stopping people traveling to the airport for a holiday? If they have a ticket and the flight is operating from the open airport that's that surely? I'm no anti-establishment type but surely the guards jurisdiction doesn't apply to what you are doing abroad(if its not illegal abroad of course, like sitting on a beach.)

Credit Checker Moose · 25-01-2021 6:57pm

I expect it to be challenged in the courts.

basill · 25-01-2021 7:42pm

TeaPot918 wrote: »

Whats the legality of stopping people traveling to the airport for a holiday? If they have a ticket and the flight is operating from the open airport that's that surely? I'm no anti-establishment type but surely the guards jurisdiction doesn't apply to what you are doing abroad(if its not illegal abroad of course, like sitting on a beach.)

The news tonight was a bit vague but it seemed to be that the Gardai were applying the 5km rule. It would seem to be that you needed to be traveling for essential travel AND live within 5km of the airport.

Time will tell what comes out of cabinet tomorrow and subsequently is brought into law. It may well be that the Gardai were slightly ahead of the game and there is a get out of jail card free for anyone stopped/fined over the past few days.

theguzman · 25-01-2021 7:43pm

Credit Checker Moose wrote: »

I expect it to be challenged in the courts.

Gemma will love this one, I would give it a few more weeks before there is full blown riots like in the Netherlands.

alentejo · 25-01-2021 10:56pm

basill wrote: »

The news tonight was a bit vague but it seemed to be that the Gardai were applying the 5km rule. It would seem to be that you needed to be traveling for essential travel AND live within 5km of the airport.

Time will tell what comes out of cabinet tomorrow and subsequently is brought into law. It may well be that the Gardai were slightly ahead of the game and there is a get out of jail card free for anyone stopped/fined over the past few days.

The whole stopping you travel bit could defo be challenged in the courts. If there is a flight and its flying plus I am leaving the state, cant see how they could legally stop you. Would the state be liable to pay for costs including any hotel bookings....free movement of people etc

EchoIndia · 26-01-2021 12:47am

alentejo wrote: »

The whole stopping you travel bit could defo be challenged in the courts. If there is a flight and its flying plus I am leaving the state, cant see how they could legally stop you. Would the state be liable to pay for costs including any hotel bookings....free movement of people etc

Regulations have been in place for a number of months but not enforced until now. See section 5: http://www.irishstatutebook.ie/eli/2020/si/413/made/en/print

LiamaDelta · 26-01-2021 10:18am

alentejo wrote: »

The whole stopping you travel bit could defo be challenged in the courts. If there is a flight and its flying plus I am leaving the state, cant see how they could legally stop you. Would the state be liable to pay for costs including any hotel bookings....free movement of people etc

Legally they stop you by instructing you to return to your home. If you don't comply then you're breaking that law.

Captain_Crash · 26-01-2021 11:50am

LiamaDelta wrote: »

Legally they stop you by instructing you to return to your home. If you don't comply then you're breaking that law.

It’ll be up to them to prove your reason for travel is non essential, that’s where it gets messy!

donkey balls · 26-01-2021 12:29pm

Poll: Are you planning a holiday abroad this year? https://jrnl.ie/5335620

Leo mentioning quarantine hotels right up to Xmas of this year for people travelling home, Also saying we may right off the summer for getting away.
This is going be a long f**king year.

BigMoose · 26-01-2021 12:51pm

F*** me, that's depressing! If we're still not allowed back from anywhere once 70+% of the population are vaccinated I give up.

trellheim · 26-01-2021 12:59pm

It’ll be up to them to prove your reason for travel is non essential, that’s where it gets messy!

The other way round, you have to prove it is essential, if I recall. It is not normal times.

Captain_Crash · 26-01-2021 1:12pm

trellheim wrote: »

The other way round, you have to prove it is essential, if I recall. It is not normal times.

I finished studying law several years ago, so would have to refresh my memory as I don’t work in that area... but when I last had a textbook open the burden of proof was always on the person trying to establish fact.

So if a guard alleged x y or z, it’s up to him to prove it, not to me to prove him wrong. I don’t know of any enacted legislation or case law since then that has changed that basic principle!

LiamaDelta · 26-01-2021 1:23pm

Captain_Crash wrote: »

I finished studying law several years ago, so would have to refresh my memory as I don’t work in that area... but when I last had a textbook open the burden of proof was always on the person trying to establish fact.

So if a guard alleged x y or z, it’s up to him to prove it, not to me to prove him wrong. I don’t know of any enacted legislation or case law since then that has changed that basic principle!

The guard can make the judgement that your journey is not essential based on the evidence and testimony you supply and so instruct you to return to your home. This is why, in general, they err on the side of caution and have tended to only issue fines where it is blatantly obvious that the person is breaching the regulations, thus very easy to prove if challenged in court. e.g. people 'exercising' at beauty spots where there is minimal housing in the surrounding area.

Tenger · 26-01-2021 2:28pm

BigMoose wrote: »

F*** me, that's depressing! If we're still not allowed back from anywhere once 70+% of the population are vaccinated I give up.

The current talk is based on the current situation. Once the vaccinations reach over 40% we can start looking at adjusting our restrictions.

I've seen a similar argument from both anti-vaxxers and right wingers. "if taking the vaccine doesn't change the restrictions then why should we take it?"

BigMoose · 26-01-2021 2:40pm

Tenger wrote: »

The current talk is based on the current situation. Once the vaccinations reach over 40% we can start looking at adjusting our restrictions.

I've seen a similar argument from both anti-vaxxers and right wingers. "if taking the vaccine doesn't change the restrictions then why should we take it?"

But that's not what Leo said, from the article posted: "I don’t think we would reverse (it) until everyone is vaccinated and then heading into winter you wouldn’t want to open flights before Christmas."

If he said "we'll assess the situation as more get vaccinated" that would be fine...

Cookiemunster · 26-01-2021 2:48pm

BigMoose wrote: »

But that's not what Leo said, from the article posted: "I don’t think we would reverse (it) until everyone is vaccinated and then heading into winter you wouldn’t want to open flights before Christmas."

If he said "we'll assess the situation as more get vaccinated" that would be fine...

Leo's been well known for flying kites and then doing the opposite of what he's suggested over the last few months. Unless it's stated as national policy I'd take it with a pinch of salt.

zuutroy · 26-01-2021 2:52pm

Leo's statement is 100% politics and nothing else. It would be too hard to undo, so if this is what you want then say goodbye to summer and Christmas....crazy statement.

IngazZagni · 26-01-2021 6:24pm

zuutroy wrote: »

Leo's statement is 100% politics and nothing else. It would be too hard to undo, so if this is what you want then say goodbye to summer and Christmas....crazy statement.

The media are constantly guilty of this. They take a snippet of what he said and present it as a headline. The general public then run with this as fact.
It appears yet again this has been taken out of context. Read or listen to the full statement and the question that went with it on the Claire Byrne show.

Basically he was saying that that’s what would be required if we went for a zero covid strategy and he’s not in favour of that right now, neither is NPHET.

BigMoose · 26-01-2021 6:28pm

IngazZagni wrote: »

The media are constantly guilty of this. They take a snippet of what he said and present it as a headline. The general public then run with this as fact.
It appears yet again this has been taken out of context. Read or listen to the full statement and the question that went with it on the Claire Byrne show.

He was pretty clear on todays briefing that regardless of how many are vaccinated you wouldn't want to open up at Christmas and let a flood of folk with the virus in. With no explanation of why not if the vaccine stops 90% of vaccinated folk dying or needing hospital care...

IngazZagni · 26-01-2021 6:55pm

BigMoose wrote: »

He was pretty clear on todays briefing that regardless of how many are vaccinated you wouldn't want to open up at Christmas and let a flood of folk with the virus in. With no explanation of why not if the vaccine stops 90% of vaccinated folk dying or needing hospital care...

I’m not sure I heard the same thing as you?
To me he said international travel can’t happen in a normal way in March and April.

He specifically said he hopes international summer travel can happen in the summer but it will be dependent on the vaccines being effective and there’s no guarantee yet on that.
He also said if we wanted a zero covid approach which he’s against, you’d probably be unlikely to have any international travel for the year and on that point, New Zealand has indicated no international travel will happen without mandatory quarantine for all of 2021.

BigMoose · 26-01-2021 7:08pm

IngazZagni wrote: »

I’m not sure I heard the same thing as you?
To me he said international travel can’t happen in a normal way in March and April.

He specifically said he hopes international summer travel can happen in the summer but it will be dependent on the vaccines being effective and there’s no guarantee yet on that.
He also said if we wanted a zero covid approach which he’s against, you’d probably be unlikely to have any international travel for the year and on that point, New Zealand has indicated no international travel will happen without mandatory quarantine for all of 2021.

I was working at the same time as watching so hope you're right as I missed that - will watch again later

IngazZagni · 26-01-2021 7:15pm

BigMoose wrote: »

I was working at the same time as watching so hope you're right as I missed that - will watch again later

The thing is it’s all hypothetical right now. Will the vaccines actually work? Will new variants render them useless? At what stage do we reach herd immunity, if that’s even possible?

We don’t know and we won’t know for a while. Let’s all keep the fingers crossed.

Tenger · 26-01-2021 7:27pm

I wonder what impact these new restrictions will have upon the Irish Airlines.

The airlines were perhaps expecting to see some bookings being made in March/April for later in the year. People aren't going to be making travel plans while we are still under level 5 restrictions.

On a related point will the airlines request that their crew are bumped up in vaccine priority? If the passengers require negative test results and/or quarantine then some monitoring of the currently exempt crew would be needed.
I know that Singapore are already providing their crew with testing after each foreign trip. (as well as full PPE rather than the face mask and sanitisers of the 2 main Irish airlines)

Jack1985 · 26-01-2021 7:38pm

Tenger wrote: »

On a related point will the airlines request that their crew are bumped up in vaccine priority? If the passengers require negative test results and/or quarantine then some monitoring of the currently exempt crew would be needed.
I know that Singapore are already providing their crew with testing after each foreign trip. (as well as full PPE rather than the face mask and sanitisers of the 2 main Irish airlines)

This has been entirely moot. Regards schedules, the forecast 70% schedules at EI and proposed MAN base sound like folklore at this rate, to many variables against the industry and confidence is floored, worse than Summer 20 in my view.

I don't see how EI in particular can stumble on as it has the last few months without signifcant capital boost.

snotboogie · 26-01-2021 10:39pm

BigMoose wrote: »

He was pretty clear on todays briefing that regardless of how many are vaccinated you wouldn't want to open up at Christmas and let a flood of folk with the virus in. With no explanation of why not if the vaccine stops 90% of vaccinated folk dying or needing hospital care...

The vaccine stops 90% of people catching the virus, it stops well in excess of 99% of people needing hospital care. I see this misinterpreted all the time

Noxegon · 26-01-2021 10:54pm

So now arrivals from Brazil and South Africa will be required to quarantine in a hotel....

...but since Ireland has no direct flights from either, these people will be sharing an aircraft with crew and passengers from their connecting points, be they LHR, CDG, AMS, DXB, DOH....

It's a good thing the virus knows that it's not allowed to infect others on board aircraft!

Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

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