January 2019 Boards weather forecast contest

Table of forecasts for January 2019


FORECASTER ____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN _____ First snow


Jpmarn _________________6.1 _ 14.2 _ --6.5 _ 075 _ 110 _____ 25 Jan

YanSno _________________6.0 _ 14.3 _ --6.6 _ 095 _ 110 _____ 16 Jan

pauldry _________________5.5 _ 14.3 _ --7.7 _ 084 _ 100 _____ 28 Jan

Kindred Spirit ____________5.4 _ 13.9 _ --6.8 _ 120 _ 090 ______ 4 Feb

DOCARCH _______________5.4 _ 13.8 _ --7.2 _ 080 _ 110 _____ 15 Jan

waterways ______________ 5.3 _ 13.7 _ --5.9 _ 101 _ 092 _____ 16 Jan

Tae laidir _______________ 5.3 _ 13.3 _ --6.8 _ 095 _ 095 ______ 2 Feb

Rameire ____ (-6) ________5.2 _ 13.7 _ --6.7 _ 095 _ 090 _____ 14 Feb


NormaL _________________5.1 _ 14.0 _ --7.0 _ 100 _ 100 _____ 15 Feb


dasa29 _________________ 5.0 _ 14.5 _ --5.0 _ 110 _ 110 _____ 15 Jan

Rikand _________________ 5.0 _ 14.0 _ --6.0 _ 090 _ 120 _____ 31 Jan

MrSkinner _______________5.0 _ 13.6 _ --6.5 _ 081 _ 111 _____ 23 Jan

Sunflower3 ______________5.0 _ 13.5 _ --5.5 _ 085 _ 090 _____ 28 Jan

sryanbruen ______________4.9 _ 15.3 _ --7.2 _ 085 _ 120 _____ 17 Jan

john mac _______________ 4.9 _ 13.5 _ --6.3 _ 097 _ 103 _____ 12 Jan

Dacogawa _______________4.8 _ 14.1 _ --8.7 _ 110 _ 103 _____ 17 Jan

JCX BXC ________________ 4.8 _ 13.3 _ --6.8 _ 085 _ 120 _____ 23 Jan


___ Con Sensus __________ 4.8 _ 13.7 _ --6.8 _ 086 _ 110 _____ 19 Jan


Adam240610 ____________ 4.8 _ 13.1 _ --7.1 _ 075 _ 123 _____ 19 Jan

Bsal ____________________4.8 _ 12.8 _ --8.5 _ 097 _ 115 _____ 25 Jan

200motels _______________4.7 _ 13.2 _ --8.9 _ 111 _ 104 _____ 19 Jan

mickger844posts __ (-4) ___ 4.4 _ 14.0 _ --5.5 _ 085 _ 090 _____ 18 Jan

Joe Public _______________ 4.3 _ 13.4 _ --6.9 _ 079 _ 109 _____ 17 Jan

Artane2002 ______________4.1 _ 13.2 _ --8.0 _ 086 _ 117 _____ 15 Jan

sdanseo ________________ 4.0 _ 13.6 _ --9.0 _ 090 _ 121 _____ 21 Jan

M.T. Cranium ____________ 4.0 _ 13.0 _-10.0 _ 080 _ 120 _____ 15 Jan

derekon _________________3.2 _ 14.0 _-11.0 _ 067 _ 120 _____ 19 Jan

BLIZZARD7 ___ (-10) ______1.7 _ 11.8 _-17.0 _ 075 _ 120 _____ 15 Jan

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Con Sensus now posted, for 26 entrants that is the average of 13th and 14th ranked forecasts (from top to bottom of range) as we use median rather than average for Con. We think of Con as our inevitable nemesis but it's tough to beat consensus in any forecast contest, last year only one (Pauldry) managed to do that, other years I have seen as many as four or five perhaps. Mathematically it is tough to have the number beating consensus much higher than 1 in 4. As for Normal, a poor showing in December dropped its ranking but it still managed to beat two thirds of the field, other years almost the entire field has beaten Normal who has one hand tied behind his or her back having to go with, well, average (another name for Normal) even in a month like July 2018 with heat and drought staring us in the face. Normal did well in 2018 generally because months had a nasty habit of changing regimes past the end of the 16-day model run and ending up closer to average than many thought. In fact Normal even won one month which is a sign of generally unanticipated changes.

Welcome to two new entrants, derekon and YanSno, we're familiar with them posting on the forum and so they are having a go with us now, good luck to them and all of you.

Looks as though we are all expecting snow sooner or later, so many chose January that I can finalize scoring this month (if it doesn't snow by 31st, the remaining three or so will get the max points). Most of us seem to think it will turn quite cold but a few are skeptical. This has worked out rather like the average ensemble set of maps you see on the GFS. No help to anyone trying to make a forecast, but interesting all the same.

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Final results (pending check against Monthly Summary for December on 3rd) posted over in the Dec 2018 thread. Congrats to Pauldry, He Who Slayed Con Sensus.

If those numbers verify you'll be able to afford the 10 points ... going over to add you to the table and calculate Con Sensus (and what does he know about weather? ... quite a bit apparently).

After two weeks ...

IMT on 7.5 C with the second week at 8.1 which was 2.9 above normal.

MAX 13.3 and MIN --3.0

PRC still very low at 17%, same as the past week.

SUN has not improved much, 32% overall, 47% for the past week (283/600).

First snow cannot come soon enough.

I notice a report of snow at Knock at 12 noon on 16th. Thinking that one might be more credible. Thoughts?

Okay but it does say "snow showers" in the 12h report under "yesterday's weather" with a temperature of 3 C and 2.1 mm precipitation, if you click on Knock on the map provided. Maybe there was snow falling but not sticking to the ground at the time (I presume in the daytime hours these are observer generated not automated?). I can certainly believe there was no measurable snow, so perhaps the fair thing to do as the question was not worded with measurable snow as the criterion would be to wait for that and see how far apart the two occasions are, make some sort of scoring adjustment to credit either of the dates.

After four weeks ...

IMT on 6.2, the fourth week averaged 5.5 which is 0.2 above normal. Should finish around 5.7 C.

MAX and MIN remain 13.3 and --3.3. Some chance of moving MIN.

PRC now at 49% of normal with this past week 75%. Expect this to finish near 60%.

SUN now at 58% of normal with the past week 69% (412/600). This won't change much now.