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January 2019 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT (average 1981-2010 was 5.1).

2. Predict the MAX

3. Predict the MIN

4. Predict the PRC (% of normal)

5. Predict the SUN (% of normal)

6. BONUS -- predict the first day this winter with measurable snow at any of the 25 daily stations on met.ie website. If your prediction is not in January,and you're right, you'll get a provisional score to be adjusted later. If it happens in January, final scoring will be possible. A valid forecast is "none" but the final date acceptable in the contest is 1 April (all later will be considered equal).

If you need more information, please check the Jan 2018 thread, which was last updated on 2 Feb 2018 (on page 10 of my version of the weather forum archives).

Deadline is 0300h 1st of January, penalties will follow the usual schedule.

Placeholder in case I am delayed (4.0, 13.0, -10.0, 80, 120, 15 Jan)

Normal (5.1, 14.0, -7.0, 100, 100, 15 Feb)

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derekon

dacogawa

Dacogawa 4.8, 14.1, -8.7, 110 , 103, 17 Jan

(provisional in case I can't adjust before New Year)

Happy New Year. Hope you all have a prosperous and wonderful 2019!

200motels

200motels 4.7 13.2 -8.9 111 104 19th Jan

sdanseo

sdanseo _____ 4.0 _ 13.6 _ -9.0 _ 90 _ 121 _ 21/01 Casement

Bsal

Bsal___4.8__12.8__-8.5__97__115__25 Jan

derekon

OK, instead of just pestering MT about his winter forecast, I will put my own neck on the line, for once!

Here goes!!

derekon_ 3.2_14_-11_67_120_19th Jan

Good luck to all!!

D

Tae laidir

Tae laidir _____ 5.3 _ 13.3 _ -6.8 _ 95 _ 95 _ 2nd Feb

DOCARCH

DOCARCH _____ 5.4 _ 13.8 _ -7.2 _ 80 _ 110 _ 15 Jan Knock

Jpmarn

Jpmarn ________ 6.1, 14.2, -6.5, 75, 110, 25 Jan.

sryanbruen

sryanbruen ____________ 4.9 _ 15.3 _ -7.2 _ 085 _ 120 ___ 17 Jan

YanSno

YanSno ___________ 6 _ 14.3 _ -6.6 _ 95 _ 110 ___ 16 Jan
Swords

pauldry

pauldry ____________ 5.5 _ 14.3 _ -7.7 _ 084 _ 100 ___ 28 Jan

adam240610

Adam240610_______4.8_13.1_-7.1_75_123_Jan 19th

Feeling less confident with this one compared with December, could realistically go anywhere near the end of the month

sunflower3

Sunflower3.......5.0, 13.5, -5.5, 85, 90, 28 Jan

(off topic :eek:...Happy New Year everyone....thanks very much to all who contribute so brilliantly to the forum....looking forward to (any) change in weather soon!

)

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ___ 5.4 ___ 13.9 ___ -6.8 ___ 120 ___ 90 ___ 4th of February.

Rikand

Rikand ___ 5.0____ 14.0 ____ -6.0 ____ 90 ____ 120 ____ 31st jan

John mac

john mac 4.9, 13.5, -6.3, 97, 103, 12 Jan knock

Artane2002

Artane2002 ____________ 4.1 _ 13.2 _ -8.0 _ 086 _ 117 ___ 15 Jan

mrskinner

Skinner----> 5_____13.6______-6.5______81______111_______Jan23

Joe Public

Joe Public _____ 4.3 _ 13.4 _ -6.9 _ 79 _ 109 _ 17th Jan

waterways

waterways ___ 5.3 ___ 13.7 ___ -5.9 ___ 101 ___ 92 ___ 16th January

dasa29

dasa29 ____________ 5.0 _ 14.5 _ -5.0 _ 110 _ 110 ___ 15 Jan

JCX BXC

JCXBXC____________ 4.8 _ 13.3 _ -6.8 _ 085 _ 120 ___ 23 Jan

mickger844posts

mickger844posts ____________ 4.4 _ 14.0 _ -5.5 _ 85 _ 90 ___ 18 Jan

rameire

Rameire ________ 5.2, 13.7, -6.7, 95, 90, 14 Feb.

Apologies, Merry New Year to you all especially M.T. Cranium for your continued participation in our happiness.

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for January 2019

FORECASTER ____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN _____ First snow

Jpmarn _________________6.1 _ 14.2 _ --6.5 _ 075 _ 110 _____ 25 Jan

YanSno _________________6.0 _ 14.3 _ --6.6 _ 095 _ 110 _____ 16 Jan

pauldry _________________5.5 _ 14.3 _ --7.7 _ 084 _ 100 _____ 28 Jan

Kindred Spirit ____________5.4 _ 13.9 _ --6.8 _ 120 _ 090 ______ 4 Feb

DOCARCH _______________5.4 _ 13.8 _ --7.2 _ 080 _ 110 _____ 15 Jan

waterways ______________ 5.3 _ 13.7 _ --5.9 _ 101 _ 092 _____ 16 Jan

Tae laidir _______________ 5.3 _ 13.3 _ --6.8 _ 095 _ 095 ______ 2 Feb

Rameire ____ (-6) ________5.2 _ 13.7 _ --6.7 _ 095 _ 090 _____ 14 Feb

NormaL _________________5.1 _ 14.0 _ --7.0 _ 100 _ 100 _____ 15 Feb

dasa29 _________________ 5.0 _ 14.5 _ --5.0 _ 110 _ 110 _____ 15 Jan

Rikand _________________ 5.0 _ 14.0 _ --6.0 _ 090 _ 120 _____ 31 Jan

MrSkinner _______________5.0 _ 13.6 _ --6.5 _ 081 _ 111 _____ 23 Jan

Sunflower3 ______________5.0 _ 13.5 _ --5.5 _ 085 _ 090 _____ 28 Jan

sryanbruen ______________4.9 _ 15.3 _ --7.2 _ 085 _ 120 _____ 17 Jan

john mac _______________ 4.9 _ 13.5 _ --6.3 _ 097 _ 103 _____ 12 Jan

Dacogawa _______________4.8 _ 14.1 _ --8.7 _ 110 _ 103 _____ 17 Jan

JCX BXC ________________ 4.8 _ 13.3 _ --6.8 _ 085 _ 120 _____ 23 Jan

___ Con Sensus __________ 4.8 _ 13.7 _ --6.8 _ 086 _ 110 _____ 19 Jan

Adam240610 ____________ 4.8 _ 13.1 _ --7.1 _ 075 _ 123 _____ 19 Jan

Bsal ____________________4.8 _ 12.8 _ --8.5 _ 097 _ 115 _____ 25 Jan

200motels _______________4.7 _ 13.2 _ --8.9 _ 111 _ 104 _____ 19 Jan

mickger844posts __ (-4) ___ 4.4 _ 14.0 _ --5.5 _ 085 _ 090 _____ 18 Jan

Joe Public _______________ 4.3 _ 13.4 _ --6.9 _ 079 _ 109 _____ 17 Jan

Artane2002 ______________4.1 _ 13.2 _ --8.0 _ 086 _ 117 _____ 15 Jan

sdanseo ________________ 4.0 _ 13.6 _ --9.0 _ 090 _ 121 _____ 21 Jan

M.T. Cranium ____________ 4.0 _ 13.0 _-10.0 _ 080 _ 120 _____ 15 Jan

derekon _________________3.2 _ 14.0 _-11.0 _ 067 _ 120 _____ 19 Jan

BLIZZARD7 ___ (-10) ______1.7 _ 11.8 _-17.0 _ 075 _ 120 _____ 15 Jan

__________________________________________________________

Con Sensus now posted, for 26 entrants that is the average of 13th and 14th ranked forecasts (from top to bottom of range) as we use median rather than average for Con. We think of Con as our inevitable nemesis but it's tough to beat consensus in any forecast contest, last year only one (Pauldry) managed to do that, other years I have seen as many as four or five perhaps. Mathematically it is tough to have the number beating consensus much higher than 1 in 4. As for Normal, a poor showing in December dropped its ranking but it still managed to beat two thirds of the field, other years almost the entire field has beaten Normal who has one hand tied behind his or her back having to go with, well, average (another name for Normal) even in a month like July 2018 with heat and drought staring us in the face. Normal did well in 2018 generally because months had a nasty habit of changing regimes past the end of the 16-day model run and ending up closer to average than many thought. In fact Normal even won one month which is a sign of generally unanticipated changes.

Welcome to two new entrants, derekon and YanSno, we're familiar with them posting on the forum and so they are having a go with us now, good luck to them and all of you.

Looks as though we are all expecting snow sooner or later, so many chose January that I can finalize scoring this month (if it doesn't snow by 31st, the remaining three or so will get the max points). Most of us seem to think it will turn quite cold but a few are skeptical. This has worked out rather like the average ensemble set of maps you see on the GFS. No help to anyone trying to make a forecast, but interesting all the same.

Final results (pending check against Monthly Summary for December on 3rd) posted over in the Dec 2018 thread. Congrats to Pauldry, He Who Slayed Con Sensus.

BLIZZARD7

Ah I'm very late to the party, apologies-

1.7 _ 11.8 _-17.0 _ 075 _ 120 _____ 15 Jan

M.T. Cranium

If those numbers verify you'll be able to afford the 10 points ... going over to add you to the table and calculate Con Sensus (and what does he know about weather? ... quite a bit apparently).

M.T. Cranium

We have opened the account with a MAX of 12.2 C on 1st at Newport.

John mac

-3 in Mullingar; according to the 08:00 report 05 Jan 2019