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January 2019 Boards weather forecast contest

  • 29-12-2018 9:01pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 13,198 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    1. Predict the IMT (average 1981-2010 was 5.1).

    2. Predict the MAX

    3. Predict the MIN

    4. Predict the PRC (% of normal)

    5. Predict the SUN (% of normal)

    6. BONUS -- predict the first day this winter with measurable snow at any of the 25 daily stations on met.ie website. If your prediction is not in January,and you're right, you'll get a provisional score to be adjusted later. If it happens in January, final scoring will be possible. A valid forecast is "none" but the final date acceptable in the contest is 1 April (all later will be considered equal).

    If you need more information, please check the Jan 2018 thread, which was last updated on 2 Feb 2018 (on page 10 of my version of the weather forum archives).

    Deadline is 0300h 1st of January, penalties will follow the usual schedule.

    Placeholder in case I am delayed (4.0, 13.0, -10.0, 80, 120, 15 Jan)

    Normal (5.1, 14.0, -7.0, 100, 100, 15 Feb)


«1

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 836 ✭✭✭ derekon


    .


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,772 ✭✭✭ dacogawa


    Dacogawa 4.8, 14.1, -8.7, 110 , 103, 17 Jan

    (provisional in case I can't adjust before New Year)

    Happy New Year. Hope you all have a prosperous and wonderful 2019!


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,569 ✭✭✭ 200motels


    200motels 4.7 13.2 -8.9 111 104 19th Jan


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,183 ✭✭✭ sdanseo


    sdanseo _____ 4.0 _ 13.6 _ -9.0 _ 90 _ 121 _ 21/01 Casement


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,713 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    Bsal___4.8__12.8__-8.5__97__115__25 Jan


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  • Registered Users Posts: 836 ✭✭✭ derekon


    OK, instead of just pestering MT about his winter forecast, I will put my own neck on the line, for once!

    Here goes!!

    derekon_ 3.2_14_-11_67_120_19th Jan

    Good luck to all!!

    D


  • Registered Users Posts: 622 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Tae laidir _____ 5.3 _ 13.3 _ -6.8 _ 95 _ 95 _ 2nd Feb


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,107 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    DOCARCH _____ 5.4 _ 13.8 _ -7.2 _ 80 _ 110 _ 15 Jan Knock


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Jpmarn ________ 6.1, 14.2, -6.5, 75, 110, 25 Jan.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,555 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    sryanbruen ____________ 4.9 _ 15.3 _ -7.2 _ 085 _ 120 ___ 17 Jan

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



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  • Registered Users Posts: 353 ✭✭ YanSno


    YanSno ___________ 6 _ 14.3 _ -6.6 _ 95 _ 110 ___ 16 Jan
    Swords


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    pauldry ____________ 5.5 _ 14.3 _ -7.7 _ 084 _ 100 ___ 28 Jan


  • Registered Users Posts: 747 ✭✭✭ adam240610


    Adam240610_______4.8_13.1_-7.1_75_123_Jan 19th

    Feeling less confident with this one compared with December, could realistically go anywhere near the end of the month


  • Registered Users Posts: 165 ✭✭ sunflower3


    Sunflower3.......5.0, 13.5, -5.5, 85, 90, 28 Jan

    (off topic :eek:...Happy New Year everyone....thanks very much to all who contribute so brilliantly to the forum....looking forward to (any) change in weather soon! :))


  • Registered Users Posts: 317 ✭✭ kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit ___ 5.4 ___ 13.9 ___ -6.8 ___ 120 ___ 90 ___ 4th of February.


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,563 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand


    Rikand ___ 5.0____ 14.0 ____ -6.0 ____ 90 ____ 120 ____ 31st jan


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,995 ✭✭✭ John mac


    john mac 4.9, 13.5, -6.3, 97, 103, 12 Jan knock


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,859 ✭✭✭ Artane2002


    Artane2002 ____________ 4.1 _ 13.2 _ -8.0 _ 086 _ 117 ___ 15 Jan


  • Registered Users Posts: 359 ✭✭ mrskinner


    Skinner----> 5_____13.6______-6.5______81______111_______Jan23


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,745 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    Joe Public _____ 4.3 _ 13.4 _ -6.9 _ 79 _ 109 _ 17th Jan


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  • Registered Users Posts: 350 ✭✭ waterways


    waterways ___ 5.3 ___ 13.7 ___ -5.9 ___ 101 ___ 92 ___ 16th January


  • Registered Users Posts: 457 ✭✭ dasa29


    dasa29 ____________ 5.0 _ 14.5 _ -5.0 _ 110 _ 110 ___ 15 Jan


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,665 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    JCXBXC____________ 4.8 _ 13.3 _ -6.8 _ 085 _ 120 ___ 23 Jan


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,406 Mod ✭✭✭✭ mickger844posts


    mickger844posts ____________ 4.4 _ 14.0 _ -5.5 _ 85 _ 90 ___ 18 Jan


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,759 ✭✭✭ rameire


    Rameire ________ 5.2, 13.7, -6.7, 95, 90, 14 Feb.

    Apologies, Merry New Year to you all especially M.T. Cranium for your continued participation in our happiness.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,198 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Table of forecasts for January 2019


    FORECASTER ____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN _____ First snow


    Jpmarn _________________6.1 _ 14.2 _ --6.5 _ 075 _ 110 _____ 25 Jan

    YanSno _________________6.0 _ 14.3 _ --6.6 _ 095 _ 110 _____ 16 Jan

    pauldry _________________5.5 _ 14.3 _ --7.7 _ 084 _ 100 _____ 28 Jan

    Kindred Spirit ____________5.4 _ 13.9 _ --6.8 _ 120 _ 090 ______ 4 Feb

    DOCARCH _______________5.4 _ 13.8 _ --7.2 _ 080 _ 110 _____ 15 Jan

    waterways ______________ 5.3 _ 13.7 _ --5.9 _ 101 _ 092 _____ 16 Jan

    Tae laidir _______________ 5.3 _ 13.3 _ --6.8 _ 095 _ 095 ______ 2 Feb

    Rameire ____ (-6) ________5.2 _ 13.7 _ --6.7 _ 095 _ 090 _____ 14 Feb


    NormaL _________________5.1 _ 14.0 _ --7.0 _ 100 _ 100 _____ 15 Feb


    dasa29 _________________ 5.0 _ 14.5 _ --5.0 _ 110 _ 110 _____ 15 Jan

    Rikand _________________ 5.0 _ 14.0 _ --6.0 _ 090 _ 120 _____ 31 Jan

    MrSkinner _______________5.0 _ 13.6 _ --6.5 _ 081 _ 111 _____ 23 Jan

    Sunflower3 ______________5.0 _ 13.5 _ --5.5 _ 085 _ 090 _____ 28 Jan

    sryanbruen ______________4.9 _ 15.3 _ --7.2 _ 085 _ 120 _____ 17 Jan

    john mac _______________ 4.9 _ 13.5 _ --6.3 _ 097 _ 103 _____ 12 Jan

    Dacogawa _______________4.8 _ 14.1 _ --8.7 _ 110 _ 103 _____ 17 Jan

    JCX BXC ________________ 4.8 _ 13.3 _ --6.8 _ 085 _ 120 _____ 23 Jan


    ___ Con Sensus __________ 4.8 _ 13.7 _ --6.8 _ 086 _ 110 _____ 19 Jan


    Adam240610 ____________ 4.8 _ 13.1 _ --7.1 _ 075 _ 123 _____ 19 Jan

    Bsal ____________________4.8 _ 12.8 _ --8.5 _ 097 _ 115 _____ 25 Jan

    200motels _______________4.7 _ 13.2 _ --8.9 _ 111 _ 104 _____ 19 Jan

    mickger844posts __ (-4) ___ 4.4 _ 14.0 _ --5.5 _ 085 _ 090 _____ 18 Jan

    Joe Public _______________ 4.3 _ 13.4 _ --6.9 _ 079 _ 109 _____ 17 Jan

    Artane2002 ______________4.1 _ 13.2 _ --8.0 _ 086 _ 117 _____ 15 Jan

    sdanseo ________________ 4.0 _ 13.6 _ --9.0 _ 090 _ 121 _____ 21 Jan

    M.T. Cranium ____________ 4.0 _ 13.0 _-10.0 _ 080 _ 120 _____ 15 Jan

    derekon _________________3.2 _ 14.0 _-11.0 _ 067 _ 120 _____ 19 Jan

    BLIZZARD7 ___ (-10) ______1.7 _ 11.8 _-17.0 _ 075 _ 120 _____ 15 Jan

    __________________________________________________________

    Con Sensus now posted, for 26 entrants that is the average of 13th and 14th ranked forecasts (from top to bottom of range) as we use median rather than average for Con. We think of Con as our inevitable nemesis but it's tough to beat consensus in any forecast contest, last year only one (Pauldry) managed to do that, other years I have seen as many as four or five perhaps. Mathematically it is tough to have the number beating consensus much higher than 1 in 4. As for Normal, a poor showing in December dropped its ranking but it still managed to beat two thirds of the field, other years almost the entire field has beaten Normal who has one hand tied behind his or her back having to go with, well, average (another name for Normal) even in a month like July 2018 with heat and drought staring us in the face. Normal did well in 2018 generally because months had a nasty habit of changing regimes past the end of the 16-day model run and ending up closer to average than many thought. In fact Normal even won one month which is a sign of generally unanticipated changes.

    Welcome to two new entrants, derekon and YanSno, we're familiar with them posting on the forum and so they are having a go with us now, good luck to them and all of you.

    Looks as though we are all expecting snow sooner or later, so many chose January that I can finalize scoring this month (if it doesn't snow by 31st, the remaining three or so will get the max points). Most of us seem to think it will turn quite cold but a few are skeptical. This has worked out rather like the average ensemble set of maps you see on the GFS. No help to anyone trying to make a forecast, but interesting all the same.


    Final results (pending check against Monthly Summary for December on 3rd) posted over in the Dec 2018 thread. Congrats to Pauldry, He Who Slayed Con Sensus.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,894 ✭✭✭ BLIZZARD7


    Ah I'm very late to the party, apologies-

    1.7 _ 11.8 _-17.0 _ 075 _ 120 _____ 15 Jan


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,198 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    If those numbers verify you'll be able to afford the 10 points ... going over to add you to the table and calculate Con Sensus (and what does he know about weather? ... quite a bit apparently).


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,198 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    We have opened the account with a MAX of 12.2 C on 1st at Newport.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,995 ✭✭✭ John mac


    -3 in Mullingar; according to the 08:00 report 05 Jan 2019


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