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January 2019 Boards weather forecast contest

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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,449 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    John mac wrote: »
    -3 in Mullingar; according to the 08:00 report 05 Jan 2019

    -2.9c on its synop report.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,804 ✭✭✭pauldry


    So Winter 2019 happened at 8am yesterday..

    Havent seen a temp below 5c in Sligo town yet this year


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,234 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    The MIN is confirmed at --3.0 (yesterday's weather section met.ie).

    First snow looks to be possible 17-19 Jan from today's guidance.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,804 ✭✭✭pauldry


    12.5c Max in Finner Camp yesterday although 11PM temp in Roches Pt is 12c

    Actually its already been beaten by 13.3c yesterday


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,234 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After the first week ...

    IMT on 6.8 which is 1.7 above normal.

    MAX 13.3 and MIN --3.0.

    PRC 16% of normal.

    SUN 17% of normal (102/600). Cork was still at zero (also Knock which is not part of contest grid).


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,234 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After two weeks ...

    IMT on 7.5 C with the second week at 8.1 which was 2.9 above normal.

    MAX 13.3 and MIN --3.0

    PRC still very low at 17%, same as the past week.

    SUN has not improved much, 32% overall, 47% for the past week (283/600).

    First snow cannot come soon enough.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,234 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I hope it snows more definitely later as there was a report at 0200h of snow showers at Dublin A but the temperature was 8 C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,804 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Report must have been taken from an Airplane before it landed MT


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,234 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    First thing to do is to see if the report survives to appear in "yesterday's weather" graphics, then compare with rest of the country. I have not been watching hourlies, did anyone see any reports of snow? Friday looks promising if not.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,234 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I notice a report of snow at Knock at 12 noon on 16th. Thinking that one might be more credible. Thoughts?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,775 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    I notice a report of snow at Knock at 12 noon on 16th. Thinking that one might be more credible. Thoughts?

    I sent a question to Knock Airport's Facebook page asking if they had any snow yesterday and the answer was no, while they could see some on Mt. Errigal in Donegal but that doesn't count.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,234 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Okay but it does say "snow showers" in the 12h report under "yesterday's weather" with a temperature of 3 C and 2.1 mm precipitation, if you click on Knock on the map provided. Maybe there was snow falling but not sticking to the ground at the time (I presume in the daytime hours these are observer generated not automated?). I can certainly believe there was no measurable snow, so perhaps the fair thing to do as the question was not worded with measurable snow as the criterion would be to wait for that and see how far apart the two occasions are, make some sort of scoring adjustment to credit either of the dates.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,804 ✭✭✭pauldry


    its snowing in many places on the leading edge of this front. surely this is it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,471 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    It looks like the rest of the month is likely to be a small bit colder than normal. I am thinking of the range of -0.5 to -1°C of normal in most areas. Maybe a greater risk of snow if you live on high ground and more northerly areas.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,234 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After three weeks ...

    IMT on 6.5 C, with the third week 4.6 which is 0.6 below normal for the period. This will continue to fall gradually and seems likely to end up around 5 deg. (GFS 12z suggests 5.2 end of month with 3 the average for 22nd-31st, ECM comes out closer to 5.5 with 3.8 the average rest of the way -- mild days around Thursday/Friday will prevent a larger collapse as most of the other days including today of course will be rather cold).

    MAX still 13.3 but MIN changed to --3.3 on the 21st (Mullingar). Both of these have some chance of surviving to end of the month.

    PRC was much closer to normal in the third week at 87% but with the dry start that leaves us at 40% of normal. The pattern ahead does not look much different from this past week, possibly drier again at around 50%, so I expect this element to finish up around 50%. Even a large dump of snow on the 31st (let's say) would not change this very much as it would only hit two or three of the eleven stations and snow is reduced to its liquid equivalent which could turn 20 cms snow into 20 mm "precip."

    SUN was very close to average in the third week at 99.3% (596/600) which boosts the monthly average to 54%. Here again, further slight increases seem likely and this could finish up around 75%. We need 166% of normal sunshine to reach a month end of normal (100%) from today to 31st, that is not totally unthinkable as normal amounts are only around 1.5 to 2 hours, so 3 hours a day would be required. I will speculate near normal amounts which will leave the finish at 72%.

    As to the first snow situation, clearly that has now happened but I will be checking all sources to see whether some of the marginal first reports are real or not, but there was a report last evening on 21st (at 22h) from Cork that I could cross-check with forum reports so 21st is the latest date this bonus question answer will fall. I'm hoping the MS will state something like "snow fell at ___ on the ___" and help me clear this up. The later dates in the contest are going to score lowest regardless of the decision on this as the earliest date errors are between 1 and 5 days depending on what the call is. Some guesses went into early February so their errors are over ten days.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,234 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After four weeks ...

    IMT on 6.2, the fourth week averaged 5.5 which is 0.2 above normal. Should finish around 5.7 C.

    MAX and MIN remain 13.3 and --3.3. Some chance of moving MIN.

    PRC now at 49% of normal with this past week 75%. Expect this to finish near 60%.

    SUN now at 58% of normal with the past week 69% (412/600). This won't change much now.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,775 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    -5C showing up in Mullingar on the 21:00 report, could go lower


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,831 ✭✭✭dacogawa


    Also -5 at Dublin Airport now.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,234 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    According to GL on another thread, --5.8 is our new MIN (Dublin A).

    The IMT is probably at 6.05 right now, could finish 5.9 or 6.0.

    PRC will come up a bit with this event today, but likely not enough to get much past 60%.

    Given that the weekend intrudes on the MS publication (to Monday 4th), will post provisional scoring on Friday with most elements known within a small tolerance. Still keeping an open mind on first snowfall date, but inclined to say 21st given the verified report. It wasn't much compared to recent snow but that wasn't the question so ... 21st is the likely choice unless the MS says something definite and points to a different first snow date.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,449 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    According to GL on another thread, --5.8 is our new MIN (Dublin A).

    The IMT is probably at 6.05 right now, could finish 5.9 or 6.0.

    PRC will come up a bit with this event today, but likely not enough to get much past 60%.

    Given that the weekend intrudes on the MS publication (to Monday 4th), will post provisional scoring on Friday with most elements known within a small tolerance. Still keeping an open mind on first snowfall date, but inclined to say 21st given the verified report. It wasn't much compared to recent snow but that wasn't the question so ... 21st is the likely choice unless the MS says something definite and points to a different first snow date.

    https://twitter.com/meteireann/status/1090863268980314117?s=21


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,234 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Good morning, I mean afternoon, no it's morning. Well, a bit less confusion on these matters ...

    IMT finished on 5.8 (tried to slide down to 5.7, not quite).

    MAX 13.3, MIN --5.8 C (subject to verification)

    PRC finished at 57%.

    SUN was fairly generous in the last three days, looks to be close to 180% of normal, but that short a boost leaves us at 70% for the month.

    Will score the bonus from 21st for now, subject to further investigation once the MS is published.

    Table of provisional scoring will be posted in about an hour.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,234 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Provisional scoring for January, 2019


    FORECASTER ____________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN___First snow ___ Totals

    Sunflower3 ______________17 _ 18 _ 17 _ 10*_ 09*_____ 06 _______ 77

    waterways ______________ 20 _ 16 _ 19 _ 05*_ 07*_____ 08 _______ 75

    Tae laidir _______________ 20 _ 20 _ 10 _ 07*_ 09*_____ 04 _______ 70

    MrSkinner _______________17 _ 17 _ 13 _ 12*_ 02*_____ 09 _______ 70

    Jpmarn _________________21 _ 11 _ 13 _ 14*_ 02*_____ 08 _______ 69

    JCX BXC ________________15 _ 20 _ 10 _ 10*_ 01*_____ 09 _______ 65

    mickger844posts __ (-4) ___11 _ 13 _ 17 _ 10*_ 09*_____ 09 __69-4 = 65

    DOCARCH _______________21 _ 15 _ 06 _ 12*_ 02*_____ 07 _______ 63

    Adam240610 ____________ 15 _ 18 _ 07 _ 14*_ 00*_____ 09 _______ 63

    YanSno _________________23 _ 10 _ 12 _ 07*_ 02*_____ 08 _______ 62

    Rikand _________________ 17 _ 13 _ 18 _ 08*_ 01*_____ 05 _______ 62

    Joe Public _______________10 _ 19 _ 09 _ 13*_ 03*_____ 08 _______ 62



    ___ Con Sensus __________ 15 _ 16 _ 10 _ 09*_ 02*_____ 09 _______ 61


    Kindred Spirit ____________21 _ 14 _ 10 _ 01*_ 09*_____ 03 _______ 58

    Rameire ____ (-6) ________19 _ 16 _ 11 _ 07*_ 09*_____ 00 __62-6= 56

    pauldry _________________22 _ 10 _ 02*_ 10*_ 05*_____06 _______ 55

    john mac _______________ 16 _ 02 _ 15 _ 06*_ 04*_____ 06 _______ 49


    NormaL _________________18 _ 13 _ 08 _ 05*_ 05*_____ 00 _______ 49


    dasa29 _________________ 17 _ 08 _ 12 _ 02*_ 02*_____ 07 _______ 48

    200motels _______________14 _ 19 _ 01*_ 02*_ 03*_____09 _______ 48

    Bsal ____________________15 _ 15 _ 01*_ 06*_ 02*_____08 _______ 47

    Artane2002 ______________08 _ 19 _ 01*_ 09*_ 02*_____07 _______ 46

    sdanseo ________________ 07 _ 17 _ 01*_ 08*_ 02*_____10 _______ 45

    M.T. Cranium ____________ 07 _ 17 _ 00 _ 12*_ 02*_____ 07 _______ 45

    Dacogawa _______________15 _ 12 _ 01*_ 02*_ 03*_____08 _______ 41

    sryanbruen ______________16 _ 00 _ 06 _ 10*_ 01*_____ 08 _______ 41

    derekon ________________ 00 _ 13 _ 00 _ 15*_ 02*_____ 09 _______ 39

    BLIZZARD7 ___ (-10) _____ 00 _ 05 _ 00 _ 14*_ 02*_____ 07 __28-10=18
    ____________________________________________________________________

    * minimum progression boosted scores for PRC, SUN and low end of MIN (one point given to less extreme out of range and to lowest raw score, rest of the field within normal scoring progression there).

    Subject to any revisions on the 4th of February, will post either confirmation announcement or revised scoring.



    ========================================================


    (actual forecasts)

    FORECASTER ____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN _____ First snow


    Jpmarn _________________6.1 _ 14.2 _ --6.5 _ 075 _ 110 _____ 25 Jan

    YanSno _________________6.0 _ 14.3 _ --6.6 _ 095 _ 110 _____ 16 Jan

    pauldry _________________5.5 _ 14.3 _ --7.7 _ 084 _ 100 _____ 28 Jan

    Kindred Spirit ____________5.4 _ 13.9 _ --6.8 _ 120 _ 090 ______ 4 Feb

    DOCARCH _______________5.4 _ 13.8 _ --7.2 _ 080 _ 110 _____ 15 Jan

    waterways ______________ 5.3 _ 13.7 _ --5.9 _ 101 _ 092 _____ 16 Jan

    Tae laidir _______________ 5.3 _ 13.3 _ --6.8 _ 095 _ 095 ______ 2 Feb

    Rameire ____ (-6) ________5.2 _ 13.7 _ --6.7 _ 095 _ 090 _____ 14 Feb


    NormaL _________________5.1 _ 14.0 _ --7.0 _ 100 _ 100 _____ 15 Feb


    dasa29 _________________ 5.0 _ 14.5 _ --5.0 _ 110 _ 110 _____ 15 Jan

    Rikand _________________ 5.0 _ 14.0 _ --6.0 _ 090 _ 120 _____ 31 Jan

    MrSkinner _______________5.0 _ 13.6 _ --6.5 _ 081 _ 111 _____ 23 Jan

    Sunflower3 ______________5.0 _ 13.5 _ --5.5 _ 085 _ 090 _____ 28 Jan

    sryanbruen ______________4.9 _ 15.3 _ --7.2 _ 085 _ 120 _____ 17 Jan

    john mac _______________ 4.9 _ 13.5 _ --6.3 _ 097 _ 103 _____ 12 Jan

    Dacogawa _______________4.8 _ 14.1 _ --8.7 _ 110 _ 103 _____ 17 Jan

    JCX BXC ________________ 4.8 _ 13.3 _ --6.8 _ 085 _ 120 _____ 23 Jan


    ___ Con Sensus __________ 4.8 _ 13.7 _ --6.8 _ 086 _ 110 _____ 19 Jan


    Adam240610 ____________ 4.8 _ 13.1 _ --7.1 _ 075 _ 123 _____ 19 Jan

    Bsal ____________________4.8 _ 12.8 _ --8.5 _ 097 _ 115 _____ 25 Jan

    200motels _______________4.7 _ 13.2 _ --8.9 _ 111 _ 104 _____ 19 Jan

    mickger844posts __ (-4) ___ 4.4 _ 14.0 _ --5.5 _ 085 _ 090 _____ 18 Jan

    Joe Public _______________ 4.3 _ 13.4 _ --6.9 _ 079 _ 109 _____ 17 Jan

    Artane2002 ______________4.1 _ 13.2 _ --8.0 _ 086 _ 117 _____ 15 Jan

    sdanseo ________________ 4.0 _ 13.6 _ --9.0 _ 090 _ 121 _____ 21 Jan

    M.T. Cranium ____________ 4.0 _ 13.0 _-10.0 _ 080 _ 120 _____ 15 Jan

    derekon _________________3.2 _ 14.0 _-11.0 _ 067 _ 120 _____ 19 Jan

    BLIZZARD7 ___ (-10) ______1.7 _ 11.8 _-17.0 _ 075 _ 120 _____ 15 Jan

    __________________________________________________________

    __________________________________________________________


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,234 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    A check of the MS reveals no new information about exact dates for snowfall and confirms the other data used in scoring, although SUN calculated out to a slightly higher 75%, that still low enough to trigger the mercy rule.

    Therefore the provisional scoring is declared final version. Well done to sunflower3, waterways, and (tied third) tae laidir and MrSkinner.

    Without the scoring boosts, the highest raw score was 71, so the increases were probably not that big a factor. Because of the uncertainty on snowfall and the narrow range of guesses (compared to what it could have been) I think the scoring range used there (based on multiples of two day errors) is fair, it gives an average of six to seven points.

    On to February (the wonderful thing about January is, when I'm done this table, I'm done period -- no annual table. Yay!)


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