Property Market 2019

15-03-2019 8:10pm

Pussyhands wrote: »

How much did you buy it for?

A few K over asking but we felt there was value there.

15-03-2019 8:12pm

Sunrise_Sunset wrote: »

I'd love for this to happen in my situation. Losing all hope. Can barely afford to buy a 2 bed house in our area at the current prices.

Well we moved out of our area by 20Km
granted we didnt want a house in an estate so we didnt consider that a sacrifice.

Keep the faith Sunrise!

Runaude · 15-03-2019 8:12pm

Cryptopagan wrote: »

Where are you going to move to? If you’re staying in Dublin and you think we’re at the top of the market you won’t want to buy anything immediately, but renting is very expensive at the moment, so if your hunch is wrong you could end up frittering away a fortune in rent waiting for a bust that doesn’t come.

Personally, I would never pursue that kind of speculative strategy with my own home.

Ha this was something I had thought about but I came to the same conclusions. I would be moving west and downsizing.

Fol20 · 15-03-2019 8:18pm

Sunrise_Sunset wrote: »

I'd love for this to happen in my situation. Losing all hope. Can barely afford to buy a 2 bed house in our area at the current prices.

You do know that once house prices start to fall which will happen at some stage, you will see a major credit crunch and unless your perfect. your not going to get as much credit as you can get now. Its all relative and in some cases, its actually worse as people cant get a mortgage any longer. Take a look at Australia right now, people having been complaining for circa 20years that prices are going up and now their going down and a lot of people arent buying.

Sunrise_Sunset · 15-03-2019 8:21pm

BrownFinger wrote: »

Well we moved out of our area by 20Km
granted we didnt want a house in an estate so we didnt consider that a sacrifice.

Keep the faith Sunrise!

It's good to hear positive stories like this anyway.
We've already moved 20km away from our area too, and out of Dublin. Even with this we are struggling with the current prices.

The_Conductor · 15-03-2019 8:29pm

The Indo must be reading this thread- they have an article (Charlie Weston) looking at the last 3 months in today's issue here: https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/property-prices-fall-for-the-third-month-in-a-row-as-demand-eases-37915787.html

I'm not convinced that demand is easing- its more credit is drying up- people can't access the level of credit needed to support the current level of prices.

Sunrise_Sunset · 15-03-2019 8:34pm

Fol20 wrote: »

You do know that once house prices start to fall which will happen at some stage, you will see a major credit crunch and unless your perfect. your not going to get as much credit as you can get now. Its all relative and in some cases, its actually worse as people cant get a mortgage any longer. Take a look at Australia right now, people having been complaining for circa 20years that prices are going up and now their going down and a lot of people arent buying.

Yes I realise this. And I have a property to sell too so I don't want prices to crash either. But the rate that prices are increasing now, I can't keep up. I am lucky to be mortgage approved so the race is on to find somewhere, as once the approval expires I worry I might not get it again.

thunderdog · 15-03-2019 8:45pm

Is there anyway to compare original asking price with selling price apart from tracking it manually?

antiskeptic · 15-03-2019 8:47pm

The_Conductor wrote: »

I'm not convinced that demand is easing- its more credit is drying up- people can't access the level of credit needed to support the current level of prices.

You mean "can't drive prices upwards anymore"

15-03-2019 9:52pm

thunderdog wrote: »

Is there anyway to compare original asking price with selling price apart from tracking it manually?

Daftdrop has some info,

hmmm · 15-03-2019 11:00pm

The_Conductor wrote: »

I'm not convinced that demand is easing- its more credit is drying up- people can't access the level of credit needed to support the current level of prices.

Just anecdotally I feel the same - lots of people are renting who would like to buy.

I fully support the CBI limits. We can't go back to lending 5, 6, 7, 8 times peoples salaries, because we've proven as a nation we are simply not responsible enough.

What should change however is the deposit requirements in my view. It's simply not possible to pay current rents, and save a substantial deposit. I'd like to see people being allowed access their pensions to put towards a house purchase - this would have the benefit of encouraging people to start a pension early, and allow them (once off) access for a deposit if they require it.

thunderdog · 15-03-2019 11:13pm

BrownFinger wrote: »

Daftdrop has some info,

Cheers, does it just give initial asking price and selling price?

kippy · 15-03-2019 11:14pm

hmmm wrote: »

Just anecdotally I feel the same - lots of people are renting who would like to buy.

I fully support the CBI limits. We can't go back to lending 5, 6, 7, 8 times peoples salaries, because we've proven as a nation we are simply not responsible enough.

What should change however is the deposit requirements in my view. It's simply not possible to pay current rents, and save a substantial deposit. I'd like to see people being allowed access their pensions to put towards a house purchase - this would have the benefit of encouraging people to start a pension early, and allow them (once off) access for a deposit if they require it.

I don't think allowing people access to their pensions is the answer. Not many people have a pension worth accessing!
Again - as far as I can see there are two broad issues, linked together.
1. The cost of building. Way too prohibitive. Granted there are only certain things the state can do here but there are things the state can do.
2. Linked to 1 - the amount of properties for sale - ie the supply side. More properties for sale, meets demand. Not even close to this at the minute. No where near enough new properties getting built in areas where they are required.

I do agree with you - saving for a deposit is very difficult in certain areas and in certain circumstances - perhaps something could be done in this area that wouldn't have an direct impact on the cost of a house.

Bob24 · 16-03-2019 12:45am

antiskeptic wrote: »

You mean "can't drive prices upwards anymore"

I’ve been skeptical about saying there is a drop in the past few months, but the fact is Dublin prices have been dropping for 3 months in a row which hadn’t happened in a very long time.

The chart there is starting to show it clearly, so I think it’s fair to say that at least for the past few months prices couldn’t be sustained in Dublin:

https://cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexjanuary2019/

kippy · 16-03-2019 2:50am

Bob24 wrote: »

I’ve been skeptical about saying there is a drop in the past few months, but the fact is Dublin prices have been dropping for 3 months in a row which hadn’t happened in a very long time.

The chart there is starting to show it clearly, so I think it’s fair to say that at least for the past few months prices couldn’t be sustained in Dublin:

https://cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexjanuary2019/

The absolute quietest months of the year for sales though?
And still rising year on year......

There's probably a slowdown in certain areas. TBH nowhere near enough.

Runaude · 16-03-2019 2:54am

I'm not seeing this slow down. I've seen various properties being sold in Dublin now within one/two weeks and when I've inquired about properties in Galway/Cork they are going sale agreed within the same time frame after being placed on daft. Once it's priced right they seem to be going quick.

theboringfox · 16-03-2019 8:46am

Casual observation but market seems soft in Cork City. I bought in early 2016 and houses selling in similar price range. I kept an eye and Cork market was very strong into end of 2017 but definitely softened last year. This was 300k plus area. I think market has hit a ceiling of affordability. I think it is a good thing. I remember the crazy bidding back in Summer 2015. People biding up because afraid if they did not the house might be 10% dearer in 12 month's time. A stable market just has buyers acting more logically.

Zenify · 16-03-2019 8:54am

Runaude wrote: »

I'm not seeing this slow down. I've seen various properties being sold in Dublin now within one/two weeks and when I've inquired about properties in Galway/Cork they are going sale agreed within the same time frame after being placed on daft. Once it's priced right they seem to be going quick.

It depends on the price bracket. Everyone here has repeated this point. Anything livable under 360k is selling well. Anything over has started coming down. Slight differences to that bracket based on areas. Ive seen a good few properties which went sale agreed last summer come back on the market this year at reduced prices.

kippy · 16-03-2019 9:04am

Zenify wrote: »

It depends on the price bracket. Everyone here has repeated this point. Anything livable under 360k is selling well. Anything over has started coming down. Slight differences to that bracket based on areas. Ive seen a good few properties which went sale agreed last summer come back on the market this year at reduced prices.

Were those sale agreed properties actually sold and if so do you know the price?
Theres no reason in the current market that someone who bought a house last year for a verified figure would advertise it for less than that figure this year unless they had been advised to set the amv relatively low to garner interest and set off a bidding war.

honeybear · 16-03-2019 9:10am

Tipp here and houses flying atm. Local house sold recently for just under half a million...to be honest, I was stunned. Feel it’s a sign that slow down may come

The_Conductor · 16-03-2019 9:53am

kippy wrote: »

The absolute quietest months of the year for sales though?
And still rising year on year......

There's probably a slowdown in certain areas. TBH nowhere near enough.

The slowdown is beginning to radiate outwards from Dublin- and is evidenced in new developments in Wicklow, North Kildare and Meath (to say nothing of West Dublin).

There is still the year on year increase- which is down to construction inflation levels (understood to be 5%)- however, those year-on-year increases, are also falling- albeit not as starkly as the current month-on-month falls that we're seeing.

No matter what way you look at it- prices- both to purchase and also rental prices- cannot be justified given the meager increases in wages/salaries that people have managed to procure over the last few years- quite simply, accommodation has, for most people, never been less affordable than it is now. I include the 2007 peak prices in this- for the simple reason- most people were on better wages back then- some sectors (such as the public sector)- are still netting around 15% less than peak- and that accounts for over a fifth of the workforce. If you're lucky and in IT or Finance- may you make hay while the sun shines, its not going to last forever..........

Our people have been bled dry- and whatever about shortages- affordability has never been worse than it now is.

Bob24 · 16-03-2019 10:24am

kippy wrote: »

The absolute quietest months of the year for sales though?
And still rising year on year......

There's probably a slowdown in certain areas. TBH nowhere near enough.

The are the quietest months indeed, but again if you look at the chart the same drop pattern can’t be observed during same months for any of the previous years.

And by nature the YOY indicator is dampening short term movements, which makes it good to give a long term smothered view of the market but slow to acknowledge trend reversals.

I’m not saying things can’t pick up, they certainly can. But factually what we can see on the chart for Dublin is the strongest drop sequence we have seen since the beginning of the recovery, so I think it is worth paying attention.

Zenify · 16-03-2019 10:27am

kippy wrote: »

Were those sale agreed properties actually sold and if so do you know the price?
Theres no reason in the current market that someone who bought a house last year for a verified figure would advertise it for less than that figure this year unless they had been advised to set the amv relatively low to garner interest and set off a bidding war.

No they weren't actually sold just sale agreed. They had massive bidding wars and went way above asking price and are now back on the market with no current offers. It's so strange and you would have to ask where are all the other bidders that were interested? Surely they would have just gone to the next bidder if it fell though.

Sunrise_Sunset · 16-03-2019 10:53am

Zenify wrote: »

No they weren't actually sold just sale agreed. They had massive bidding wars and went way above asking price and are now back on the market with no current offers. It's so strange and you would have to ask where are all the other bidders that were interested? Surely they would have just gone to the next bidder if it fell though.

I find that interesting. I didn't start bidding until January of this year. Bid on 2 houses (3 beds, 3 baths) that went above asking price after bidding wars. I asked the EA to keep me on the underbidder's list, but I haven't heard anything back yet. We have now decided we can only pursue 2 bed, 2 bath houses as they are still getting bids over their asking prices and edging up into our price range.

Zenify · 16-03-2019 10:59am

Sunrise_Sunset wrote: »

I find that interesting. I didn't start bidding until January of this year. Bid on 2 houses (3 beds, 3 baths) that went above asking price after bidding wars. I asked the EA to keep me on the underbidder's list, but I haven't heard anything back yet. We have now decided we can only pursue 2 bed, 2 bath houses as they are still getting bids over their asking prices and edging up into our price range.

What area and price range?

Sunrise_Sunset · 16-03-2019 11:10am

Zenify wrote: »

What area and price range?

North Wicklow area, 300-350k price range

Zenify · 16-03-2019 1:49pm

Sunrise_Sunset wrote: »

North Wicklow area, 300-350k price range

Zenify wrote: »

It depends on the price bracket. Everyone here has repeated this point. Anything livable under 360k is selling well. Anything over has started coming down. Slight differences to that bracket based on areas. Ive seen a good few properties which went sale agreed last summer come back on the market this year at reduced prices.

It's the price range. I'm talking a little higher than that.

Pussyhands · 22-03-2019 7:29pm

Global market slump as fears of a slowdown grow

Rumblings again today. S&P down 1.5% so far. I think we may well go into recession in the next year. Those of us patiently waiting may get rewarded. I think we've hit the peak in house prices for the time being. Time to drop! I may get stung by waiting but I think the risk of buying at these prices and seeing prices drop is greater than the risk of not buying now and house prices keep going up.

The 10 year - 3 month yield curve inverted today...it has predicted almost all recessions...

Amirani · 22-03-2019 7:40pm

Pussyhands wrote: »

Global market slump as fears of a slowdown grow

Rumblings again today. S&P down 1.5% so far.

Yeah, it's down 1.5% today, back to where it was last Friday after which it grew all week...

It's easy to frame things in a certain way if you look at a very narrow subset of data.

Pussyhands · 22-03-2019 7:45pm

Amirani wrote: »

Yeah, it's down 1.5% today, back to where it was last Friday after which it grew all week...

It's easy to frame things in a certain way if you look at a very narrow subset of data.

1.5% drops are not normal business. Something spooks it like it did in December when we were getting 2% drops a day.

Did you even read my link?

The_Conductor · 22-03-2019 9:27pm

We may be at the peak- however, the supplyside issues in particular (in an Irish context) will cushion falls to a far greater extent than happened back in 2007-2008 (when the overhang on the market sunk us). We are not satisfying demand- we're getting better- but pentup demand in particular areas (look at Dublin (in general) and Cork and Galway (Galway seems to be staggeringly undersupplied)- means prices are not going to fall off a cliff.

We already have moderation in a national context to construction inflation levels (in or around 5%)- and small but sustained falls in some areas (North Kildare, West Dublin, parts of D4/D6 etc). Nothing of significance is happening- its all slow, glacial paced, movements.

Sunrise_Sunset · 22-03-2019 9:33pm

If I were a first time buyer and were ready to buy, I'd be inclined to wait and see what happens. However, as a second time buyer if prices drop it'll do me no favours really. The property I own in West Dublin will again depreciate lower and faster than the property I want to buy in North Wicklow. So, I'm inclined to go ahead now.

Mad_maxx · 22-03-2019 10:38pm

Amirani wrote: »

Yeah, it's down 1.5% today, back to where it was last Friday after which it grew all week...

It's easy to frame things in a certain way if you look at a very narrow subset of data.

Europe is a complete mess, America is carrying the global economy on its own right now

Fol20 · 22-03-2019 10:46pm

hmmm wrote: »

Just anecdotally I feel the same - lots of people are renting who would like to buy.

I fully support the CBI limits. We can't go back to lending 5, 6, 7, 8 times peoples salaries, because we've proven as a nation we are simply not responsible enough.

What should change however is the deposit requirements in my view. It's simply not possible to pay current rents, and save a substantial deposit. I'd like to see people being allowed access their pensions to put towards a house purchase - this would have the benefit of encouraging people to start a pension early, and allow them (once off) access for a deposit if they require it.

Whats the point of a pension if you want to take money out of it. Thats called a savings account

22-03-2019 11:30pm

There's no way they'd allow access to pensions. They'd be cleared out and the burden would fall on the State in 30/40/however many years.

23-03-2019 12:10am

The_Conductor wrote: »

We may be at the peak- however, the supplyside issues in particular (in an Irish context) will cushion falls to a far greater extent than happened back in 2007-2008 (when the overhang on the market sunk us). We are not satisfying demand- we're getting better- but pentup demand in particular areas (look at Dublin (in general) and Cork and Galway (Galway seems to be staggeringly undersupplied)- means prices are not going to fall off a cliff.

We already have moderation in a national context to construction inflation levels (in or around 5%)- and small but sustained falls in some areas (North Kildare, West Dublin, parts of D4/D6 etc). Nothing of significance is happening- its all slow, glacial paced, movements.

And yet there are houses in Dublin laying in the market since last summer, now starting to drop their asking prices.
So clearly there is not an under supply in Dublin anyway.

Sunrise_Sunset · 23-03-2019 12:16am

bubblypop wrote: »

And yet there are houses in Dublin laying in the market since last summer, now starting to drop their asking prices.
So clearly there is not an under supply in Dublin anyway.

Same in North Wicklow. Excluding the 3 or 4 bed, 3 bath houses that are the most desirable. Apartments, duplexes, bungalows are the harder sell and seem to be lingering for a while for dropping their prices.

Subutai · 23-03-2019 12:20am

bubblypop wrote: »

And yet there are houses in Dublin laying in the market since last summer, now starting to drop their asking prices.
So clearly there is not an under supply in Dublin anyway.

The housing market isn't straightforward supply - demand. Demand is mediated by access to credit. That is now the pressure point as for the higher end of the market prices can no longer rise sustainably at a rate higher than wage increases.

Bluefoam · 23-03-2019 9:08am

Some houses are just undesirable because they aren't what people are looking for or because the vendor believes their value is higher than it actually is... Not all houses will sell immediately, that is not a reflection on the market, more to do with individual circumstances... Plus, people want the best house for them, particularly in an expensive market...

Bob24 · 23-03-2019 9:17am

bubblypop wrote: »

And yet there are houses in Dublin laying in the market since last summer, now starting to drop their asking prices.
So clearly there is not an under supply in Dublin anyway.

It is not contradictory to have items which take a while to sell while supply is constrained.

For exemple I could have a very rare edition of a Beatles record for which only 10 copies exist in the world, and leave it on sale at a very high price for months because I know no one else is currently selling the same and rather than selling quickly I prefer to wait for a wealthy collector to give in as they have no other option. Extremely constrained supply but selling takes a while because I am not in a rush to sell and I believe that since the market is constrained I’d better not rush things to get the most benefit.

23-03-2019 10:24am

bubblypop wrote: »

And yet there are houses in Dublin laying in the market since last summer, now starting to drop their asking prices.
So clearly there is not an under supply in Dublin anyway.

You must be the only person in the country who has concluded there's an under-supply in Dublin.

kippy · 23-03-2019 10:46am

bubblypop wrote: »

And yet there are houses in Dublin laying in the market since last summer, now starting to drop their asking prices.
So clearly there is not an under supply in Dublin anyway.

There's not an undersupply in Dublin?
Really?

Bluefoam · 23-03-2019 11:08am

I had a look at a 2 bed house in kilmainham a few weeks ago... It was uninhabitable. He had extended through the full back yard. If you looked out the window your neighbours wall was 2 feet in front of you. There was zero light. There was mould and damp. The layout was bizarre. There was building work going on and no floorboards, missing patches of wall and ceiling. Rooms were tiny front door was rotten away... He told me that the estate agent had advertised it for 325, but he wouldn't take less that 500k as another house in the area had sold for 525k a couple of years ago.

This house will stay on the market indefinitely...

Sheeps · 23-03-2019 2:32pm

Bluefoam wrote: »

I had a look at a 2 bed house in kilmainham a few weeks ago... It was uninhabitable. He had extended through the full back yard. If you looked out the window your neighbours wall was 2 feet in front of you. There was zero light. There was mould and damp. The layout was bizarre. There was building work going on and no floorboards, missing patches of wall and ceiling. Rooms were tiny front door was rotten away... He told me that the estate agent had advertised it for 325, but he wouldn't take less that 500k as another house in the area had sold for 525k a couple of years ago.

This house will stay on the market indefinitely...

You'll be surprised. Looked at something similar in Stoney Batter at 375, and it's sold as a "fixer upper".

Sheeps · 23-03-2019 6:29pm

Doing my daily search of somewhere to live, and let me just say, the absolute state of houses under 325k is ridiculous. It's disgusting. Over the last two years, my expectations have been sliding ever more downhill, and I keep thinking we're at rock bottom, but every day is a new low for me. It's horrifying, demoralising and ultimately depressing.

Pussyhands · 23-03-2019 8:40pm

Sheeps wrote: »

Doing my daily search of somewhere to live, and let me just say, the absolute state of houses under 325k is ridiculous. It's disgusting. Over the last two years, my expectations have been sliding ever more downhill, and I keep thinking we're at rock bottom, but every day is a new low for me. It's horrifying, demoralising and ultimately depressing.

Sit tight. These prices are unsustainable...

theboringfox · 23-03-2019 8:44pm

Think market is soft. Not sure I see anything in next couple years that will cause big fall though. Central bank rules have correctly kept lid on prices. Maybe a removal of exceptions is warranted though and that may hit prices.

Bluefoam · 23-03-2019 9:10pm

Pussyhands wrote: »

Sheeps wrote: »

Doing my daily search of somewhere to live, and let me just say, the absolute state of houses under 325k is ridiculous. It's disgusting. Over the last two years, my expectations have been sliding ever more downhill, and I keep thinking we're at rock bottom, but every day is a new low for me. It's horrifying, demoralising and ultimately depressing.

Sit tight. These prices are unsustainable...

You make a strong argument!

CPTM · 23-03-2019 9:27pm

I would appreciate anyone's insights on my assessment of the market. I have a small 2 bed artisan cottage in south Dublin (bought 2013) that I'm going to sell. We're looking to move up to a family home. I think this is the right time to move up because:
1) If they start building skywards in South Dublin, it will be one/two bed apartments, and any potential buyers of my small house could transfer to these high spec apartments. This will reduce the value of my home.

2) Semi D's are different - you can't really build these on top of each other and so the cost of these will continue to rise overtime, particularly in South Dublin. Sure, they could build out into South County Dublin, but with the state of transport and the time it takes to get to City Centre, the demand for these houses in Dublin 6/Dublin 4 areas will be maintained.

Edit: 3) Wages in Dublin are rising rapidly (particularly in IT) which will increase the buyer's budget dramatically, pushing house prices up

However, my experience in the viewings is that the Semi D prices are falling. Every single house I've viewed is struggling to get asking price.

Would you
A) Sell the small house and buy the Semi D?

Remortgage the small house and buy a Semi D?
C) Something else - Sell the small house at the inflated market price now and sit and wait for 6 months while Semi D house prices fall?

q85dw7osi4lebg · 23-03-2019 9:46pm

CPTM wrote: »

I would appreciate anyone's insights on my assessment of the market. I have a small 2 bed artisan cottage in south Dublin (bought 2013) that I'm going to sell. We're looking to move up to a family home. I think this is the right time to move up because:
1) If they start building skywards in South Dublin, it will be one/two bed apartments, and any potential buyers of my small house could transfer to these high spec apartments. This will reduce the value of my home.

2) Semi D's are different - you can't really build these on top of each other and so the cost of these will continue to rise overtime, particularly in South Dublin. Sure, they could build out into South County Dublin, but with the state of transport and the time it takes to get to City Centre, the demand for these houses in Dublin 6/Dublin 4 areas will be maintained.

Edit: 3) Wages in Dublin are rising rapidly (particularly in IT) which will increase the buyer's budget dramatically, pushing house prices up

However, my experience in the viewings is that the Semi D prices are falling. Every single house I've viewed is struggling to get asking price.

Would you
A) Sell the small house and buy the Semi D?
Remortgage the small house and buy a Semi D?
C) Something else - Sell the small house at the inflated market price now and sit and wait for 6 months while Semi D house prices fall?

Sell house, move further afield, live mortgage free.

Property Market 2019

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