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Property Market 2019

The_Conductor

As is now becoming a custom- we'll start a new thread to discuss all topics as they pertain to the property market in general, alongside people's predictions and experiences- for the year 2019.

Its going to be an interesting year- with Brexit, if it comes to pass, at the end of March- and to misquote Donald Rumsfeld - the unknown unknowns that are likely to jump out at us, when we least expect them to.

2018 thread is now closed.

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[Deleted User]

The_Conductor wrote: »

We may be at the peak- however, the supplyside issues in particular (in an Irish context) will cushion falls to a far greater extent than happened back in 2007-2008 (when the overhang on the market sunk us). We are not satisfying demand- we're getting better- but pentup demand in particular areas (look at Dublin (in general) and Cork and Galway (Galway seems to be staggeringly undersupplied)- means prices are not going to fall off a cliff.

We already have moderation in a national context to construction inflation levels (in or around 5%)- and small but sustained falls in some areas (North Kildare, West Dublin, parts of D4/D6 etc). Nothing of significance is happening- its all slow, glacial paced, movements.

And yet there are houses in Dublin laying in the market since last summer, now starting to drop their asking prices.
So clearly there is not an under supply in Dublin anyway.

[Deleted User]

There's no way they'd allow access to pensions. They'd be cleared out and the burden would fall on the State in 30/40/however many years.

Fol20

hmmm wrote: »

Just anecdotally I feel the same - lots of people are renting who would like to buy.

I fully support the CBI limits. We can't go back to lending 5, 6, 7, 8 times peoples salaries, because we've proven as a nation we are simply not responsible enough.

What should change however is the deposit requirements in my view. It's simply not possible to pay current rents, and save a substantial deposit. I'd like to see people being allowed access their pensions to put towards a house purchase - this would have the benefit of encouraging people to start a pension early, and allow them (once off) access for a deposit if they require it.

Whats the point of a pension if you want to take money out of it. Thats called a savings account

Mad_maxx

Amirani wrote: »

Yeah, it's down 1.5% today, back to where it was last Friday after which it grew all week...

It's easy to frame things in a certain way if you look at a very narrow subset of data.

Europe is a complete mess, America is carrying the global economy on its own right now

Sunrise_Sunset

If I were a first time buyer and were ready to buy, I'd be inclined to wait and see what happens. However, as a second time buyer if prices drop it'll do me no favours really. The property I own in West Dublin will again depreciate lower and faster than the property I want to buy in North Wicklow. So, I'm inclined to go ahead now.

The_Conductor

We may be at the peak- however, the supplyside issues in particular (in an Irish context) will cushion falls to a far greater extent than happened back in 2007-2008 (when the overhang on the market sunk us). We are not satisfying demand- we're getting better- but pentup demand in particular areas (look at Dublin (in general) and Cork and Galway (Galway seems to be staggeringly undersupplied)- means prices are not going to fall off a cliff.

We already have moderation in a national context to construction inflation levels (in or around 5%)- and small but sustained falls in some areas (North Kildare, West Dublin, parts of D4/D6 etc). Nothing of significance is happening- its all slow, glacial paced, movements.

Pussyhands

Amirani wrote: »

Yeah, it's down 1.5% today, back to where it was last Friday after which it grew all week...

It's easy to frame things in a certain way if you look at a very narrow subset of data.

1.5% drops are not normal business. Something spooks it like it did in December when we were getting 2% drops a day.

Did you even read my link?

Amirani

Pussyhands wrote: »

Global market slump as fears of a slowdown grow

Rumblings again today. S&P down 1.5% so far.

Yeah, it's down 1.5% today, back to where it was last Friday after which it grew all week...

It's easy to frame things in a certain way if you look at a very narrow subset of data.

Pussyhands

Global market slump as fears of a slowdown grow

Rumblings again today. S&P down 1.5% so far. I think we may well go into recession in the next year. Those of us patiently waiting may get rewarded. I think we've hit the peak in house prices for the time being. Time to drop! I may get stung by waiting but I think the risk of buying at these prices and seeing prices drop is greater than the risk of not buying now and house prices keep going up.

The 10 year - 3 month yield curve inverted today...it has predicted almost all recessions...

Zenify

Sunrise_Sunset wrote: »

North Wicklow area, 300-350k price range

Zenify wrote: »

It depends on the price bracket. Everyone here has repeated this point. Anything livable under 360k is selling well. Anything over has started coming down. Slight differences to that bracket based on areas. Ive seen a good few properties which went sale agreed last summer come back on the market this year at reduced prices.

It's the price range. I'm talking a little higher than that.

Sunrise_Sunset

Zenify wrote: »

What area and price range?

North Wicklow area, 300-350k price range

Zenify

Sunrise_Sunset wrote: »

I find that interesting. I didn't start bidding until January of this year. Bid on 2 houses (3 beds, 3 baths) that went above asking price after bidding wars. I asked the EA to keep me on the underbidder's list, but I haven't heard anything back yet. We have now decided we can only pursue 2 bed, 2 bath houses as they are still getting bids over their asking prices and edging up into our price range.

What area and price range?

Sunrise_Sunset

Zenify wrote: »

No they weren't actually sold just sale agreed. They had massive bidding wars and went way above asking price and are now back on the market with no current offers. It's so strange and you would have to ask where are all the other bidders that were interested? Surely they would have just gone to the next bidder if it fell though.

I find that interesting. I didn't start bidding until January of this year. Bid on 2 houses (3 beds, 3 baths) that went above asking price after bidding wars. I asked the EA to keep me on the underbidder's list, but I haven't heard anything back yet. We have now decided we can only pursue 2 bed, 2 bath houses as they are still getting bids over their asking prices and edging up into our price range.

Zenify

kippy wrote: »

Were those sale agreed properties actually sold and if so do you know the price?
Theres no reason in the current market that someone who bought a house last year for a verified figure would advertise it for less than that figure this year unless they had been advised to set the amv relatively low to garner interest and set off a bidding war.

No they weren't actually sold just sale agreed. They had massive bidding wars and went way above asking price and are now back on the market with no current offers. It's so strange and you would have to ask where are all the other bidders that were interested? Surely they would have just gone to the next bidder if it fell though.

Bob24

kippy wrote: »

The absolute quietest months of the year for sales though?
And still rising year on year......

There's probably a slowdown in certain areas. TBH nowhere near enough.

The are the quietest months indeed, but again if you look at the chart the same drop pattern can’t be observed during same months for any of the previous years.

And by nature the YOY indicator is dampening short term movements, which makes it good to give a long term smothered view of the market but slow to acknowledge trend reversals.

I’m not saying things can’t pick up, they certainly can. But factually what we can see on the chart for Dublin is the strongest drop sequence we have seen since the beginning of the recovery, so I think it is worth paying attention.

The_Conductor

kippy wrote: »

The absolute quietest months of the year for sales though?
And still rising year on year......

There's probably a slowdown in certain areas. TBH nowhere near enough.

The slowdown is beginning to radiate outwards from Dublin- and is evidenced in new developments in Wicklow, North Kildare and Meath (to say nothing of West Dublin).

There is still the year on year increase- which is down to construction inflation levels (understood to be 5%)- however, those year-on-year increases, are also falling- albeit not as starkly as the current month-on-month falls that we're seeing.

No matter what way you look at it- prices- both to purchase and also rental prices- cannot be justified given the meager increases in wages/salaries that people have managed to procure over the last few years- quite simply, accommodation has, for most people, never been less affordable than it is now. I include the 2007 peak prices in this- for the simple reason- most people were on better wages back then- some sectors (such as the public sector)- are still netting around 15% less than peak- and that accounts for over a fifth of the workforce. If you're lucky and in IT or Finance- may you make hay while the sun shines, its not going to last forever..........

Our people have been bled dry- and whatever about shortages- affordability has never been worse than it now is.

honeybear

Tipp here and houses flying atm. Local house sold recently for just under half a million...to be honest, I was stunned. Feel it’s a sign that slow down may come

kippy

Zenify wrote: »

It depends on the price bracket. Everyone here has repeated this point. Anything livable under 360k is selling well. Anything over has started coming down. Slight differences to that bracket based on areas. Ive seen a good few properties which went sale agreed last summer come back on the market this year at reduced prices.

Were those sale agreed properties actually sold and if so do you know the price?
Theres no reason in the current market that someone who bought a house last year for a verified figure would advertise it for less than that figure this year unless they had been advised to set the amv relatively low to garner interest and set off a bidding war.

Zenify

Runaude wrote: »

I'm not seeing this slow down. I've seen various properties being sold in Dublin now within one/two weeks and when I've inquired about properties in Galway/Cork they are going sale agreed within the same time frame after being placed on daft. Once it's priced right they seem to be going quick.

It depends on the price bracket. Everyone here has repeated this point. Anything livable under 360k is selling well. Anything over has started coming down. Slight differences to that bracket based on areas. Ive seen a good few properties which went sale agreed last summer come back on the market this year at reduced prices.

theboringfox

Casual observation but market seems soft in Cork City. I bought in early 2016 and houses selling in similar price range. I kept an eye and Cork market was very strong into end of 2017 but definitely softened last year. This was 300k plus area. I think market has hit a ceiling of affordability. I think it is a good thing. I remember the crazy bidding back in Summer 2015. People biding up because afraid if they did not the house might be 10% dearer in 12 month's time. A stable market just has buyers acting more logically.

Runaude

I'm not seeing this slow down. I've seen various properties being sold in Dublin now within one/two weeks and when I've inquired about properties in Galway/Cork they are going sale agreed within the same time frame after being placed on daft. Once it's priced right they seem to be going quick.

kippy

Bob24 wrote: »

I’ve been skeptical about saying there is a drop in the past few months, but the fact is Dublin prices have been dropping for 3 months in a row which hadn’t happened in a very long time.

The chart there is starting to show it clearly, so I think it’s fair to say that at least for the past few months prices couldn’t be sustained in Dublin:

https://cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexjanuary2019/

The absolute quietest months of the year for sales though?
And still rising year on year......

There's probably a slowdown in certain areas. TBH nowhere near enough.

Bob24

antiskeptic wrote: »

You mean "can't drive prices upwards anymore"

I’ve been skeptical about saying there is a drop in the past few months, but the fact is Dublin prices have been dropping for 3 months in a row which hadn’t happened in a very long time.

The chart there is starting to show it clearly, so I think it’s fair to say that at least for the past few months prices couldn’t be sustained in Dublin:

https://cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexjanuary2019/

kippy

hmmm wrote: »

Just anecdotally I feel the same - lots of people are renting who would like to buy.

I fully support the CBI limits. We can't go back to lending 5, 6, 7, 8 times peoples salaries, because we've proven as a nation we are simply not responsible enough.

What should change however is the deposit requirements in my view. It's simply not possible to pay current rents, and save a substantial deposit. I'd like to see people being allowed access their pensions to put towards a house purchase - this would have the benefit of encouraging people to start a pension early, and allow them (once off) access for a deposit if they require it.

I don't think allowing people access to their pensions is the answer. Not many people have a pension worth accessing!
Again - as far as I can see there are two broad issues, linked together.
1. The cost of building. Way too prohibitive. Granted there are only certain things the state can do here but there are things the state can do.
2. Linked to 1 - the amount of properties for sale - ie the supply side. More properties for sale, meets demand. Not even close to this at the minute. No where near enough new properties getting built in areas where they are required.

I do agree with you - saving for a deposit is very difficult in certain areas and in certain circumstances - perhaps something could be done in this area that wouldn't have an direct impact on the cost of a house.

thunderdog

BrownFinger wrote: »

Daftdrop has some info,

Cheers, does it just give initial asking price and selling price?

hmmm

The_Conductor wrote: »

I'm not convinced that demand is easing- its more credit is drying up- people can't access the level of credit needed to support the current level of prices.

Just anecdotally I feel the same - lots of people are renting who would like to buy.

I fully support the CBI limits. We can't go back to lending 5, 6, 7, 8 times peoples salaries, because we've proven as a nation we are simply not responsible enough.

What should change however is the deposit requirements in my view. It's simply not possible to pay current rents, and save a substantial deposit. I'd like to see people being allowed access their pensions to put towards a house purchase - this would have the benefit of encouraging people to start a pension early, and allow them (once off) access for a deposit if they require it.

[Deleted User]

thunderdog wrote: »

Is there anyway to compare original asking price with selling price apart from tracking it manually?

Daftdrop has some info,

antiskeptic

The_Conductor wrote: »

I'm not convinced that demand is easing- its more credit is drying up- people can't access the level of credit needed to support the current level of prices.

You mean "can't drive prices upwards anymore"

thunderdog

Is there anyway to compare original asking price with selling price apart from tracking it manually?

Sunrise_Sunset

Fol20 wrote: »

You do know that once house prices start to fall which will happen at some stage, you will see a major credit crunch and unless your perfect. your not going to get as much credit as you can get now. Its all relative and in some cases, its actually worse as people cant get a mortgage any longer. Take a look at Australia right now, people having been complaining for circa 20years that prices are going up and now their going down and a lot of people arent buying.

Yes I realise this. And I have a property to sell too so I don't want prices to crash either. But the rate that prices are increasing now, I can't keep up. I am lucky to be mortgage approved so the race is on to find somewhere, as once the approval expires I worry I might not get it again.