Property Market 2019

Pussyhands

Bluefoam wrote: »

You should have... Just shows, some people make the right descisions at the right time, others don't. I should have been a millionaire five times over, but I'm not.

Considering I was in college at the time, think it would have been impossible.

Bluefoam

Pussyhands wrote: »

Considering I was in college at the time, think it would have been impossible.

Well then what are you moaning about... ?

If I'd invested my 0 money in Apple stocks I's still be broke, WTF...?

Pussyhands

Bluefoam wrote: »

Well then what are you moaning about... ?

If I'd invested my 0 money in Apple stocks I's still be broke, WTF...?

Can a man not be jealous????

mkdon

Pussyhands wrote: »

Can a man not be jealous????

in Dublin are prices down in the month December from November?

Pussyhands

mkdon wrote: »

in Dublin are prices down in the month December from November?

In Dublin region prices are up 94% from their low...

Zenify

mkdon wrote: »

in Dublin are prices down in the month December from November?

From my reading of it that was a national decline: -.1 and -.3 for November and December.

cruizer101

Slightly down yeah, but the same happened end of 2015 and 2016, end of year is quiet period. I wouldn't read too much into it when it is just one or two months.

Bluefoam

Word on the street is that there are about 3x more properties on the market now, than this time last year. The market may seem slower, but the buyers are spead over more stock... so the frenzy isn't being felt. Asking prices are down, but that doesn't mean selling prices are. Apartments seem to be in demand, but again, prices are more stable due to availability of stock (possibly due to landlords bailing).

If Brexit happens with a deal (as predicted), we could see a much more positive attitute to the economy... if a no deal, there will certainly be short term ramifications, but not necessarily long term.

The last recession proved to us that the market generally corrects itself, there are also more protections in place now, so even if we do experience a downturn of some sort, the expectation would be that prices will continue to increase long term.

On a more somber note; we have ****ed up the planet, mother nature is going to send some crazy apocolypse style weather & natural occurances & we're all ****ed... We'll be using the first time buyer grant to build shack's at the top of the Sugar Loaf to escape rising water levels.

Sheeps

Bluefoam wrote: »

Word on the street is that there are about 3x more properties on the market now, than this time last year. The market may seem slower, but the buyers are spead over more stock... so the frenzy isn't being felt. Asking prices are down, but that doesn't mean selling prices are. Apartments seem to be in demand, but again, prices are more stable due to availability of stock (possibly due to landlords bailing).

If Brexit happens with a deal (as predicted), we could see a much more positive attitute to the economy... if a no deal, there will certainly be short term ramifications, but not necessarily long term.

The last recession proved to us that the market generally corrects itself, there are also more protections in place now, so even if we do experience a downturn of some sort, the expectation would be that prices will continue to increase long term.

On a more somber note; we have ****ed up the planet, mother nature is going to send some crazy apocolypse style weather & natural occurances & we're all ****ed... We'll be using the first time buyer grant to build shack's at the top of the Sugar Loaf to escape rising water levels.

I know you meant that as a joke but I'm literally considering rising sea level when looking for a home.

Bluefoam

Sheeps wrote: »

Bluefoam wrote: »

Word on the street is that there are about 3x more properties on the market now, than this time last year. The market may seem slower, but the buyers are spead over more stock... so the frenzy isn't being felt. Asking prices are down, but that doesn't mean selling prices are. Apartments seem to be in demand, but again, prices are more stable due to availability of stock (possibly due to landlords bailing).

If Brexit happens with a deal (as predicted), we could see a much more positive attitute to the economy... if a no deal, there will certainly be short term ramifications, but not necessarily long term.

The last recession proved to us that the market generally corrects itself, there are also more protections in place now, so even if we do experience a downturn of some sort, the expectation would be that prices will continue to increase long term.

On a more somber note; we have ****ed up the planet, mother nature is going to send some crazy apocolypse style weather & natural occurances & we're all ****ed... We'll be using the first time buyer grant to build shack's at the top of the Sugar Loaf to escape rising water levels.

I know you meant that as a joke but I'm literally considering rising sea level when looking for a home.

I meant it tongue in cheek, but it's a reality.

Mad_maxx

tobsey wrote: »

The main reason proces dropped so much last time was people were over extended, with 100% interest only mortgages on multiple properties, that the banks then closed in on. The owners had no choice but to sell, therefore prices plummeted. The lending rules this time mean that there is much more equity in property so that there is less likely to be a firesale and therefore less likely they will fall dramatically. There might be a small reduction in values, but not at the level seen in the crash. That was the only time in history that houses values dropped at that rate. Even in recessions before then property didn't collapse in the same way. There's no reason to believe it would happen during the next recession.

The drops from 2007 to 2012 were not replicated anywhere else at any time this past several decades, resort locations in Spain may have dropped 60% but Madrid and Barcelona didn't

Mad_maxx

Nobodysrobots wrote: »

Big, fast drops are very rare in the property market even in the worst recession in the State's history, the biggest single year drop was 13.6% in 2012 (open to correction on this).

You're assuming these canny investors can call the bottom of the market accurately. What happened during the recession from 2008-2013 was, nobody was buying because if they waited a year they could get a double-digit % discount on the current price.
The people who can call the top/bottom of markets accurately are most likely already rich and have information the wider public aren't aware of yet. As an example, I find the behaviour and recent activity by international REITs, pouring billions into the Irish property market at a time of (generally perceived) uncertainty a little suspicious.

2012 was not the biggest drop, in fact houses rose in value in parts of Dublin in 2012 ( even sale registration wasn't officially recorded until 2013) and dropped nowhere in Dublin that year, spring 2012 was the bottom in Dublin, it took until mid 2013 for Cork and Galway city to bottom

2008 saw the largest fall ( 20%)from spring 2007 ( peak) to mid 2009 was a near 40 % drop with the remaining 18% fall spread over 2010 and 2011

Mad_maxx

Bob24 wrote: »

I can definitly confirm that it was no problem to get mortgage approval during the recession if you had decent savings and a full time permanent position with decent salary.

Plenty of mid level IT/finance workers in my circle did get approvals and as a matter of fact banks would welcome safe enough borrowers with open arms as they were desperate for more business at higher rates than tracker mortgages.

Reduced lending wasn’t really due to banks having more drastic lending criteria compared to nowadays (they didn’t), it was more than less people did meet those criteria. But there was no issue for those who did.

Getting mortgage approval was extremely hard unless you had at least 30% of a deposit until about 2014

Calltocall

I’ve been doing a bit of research into the difference between property prices in Dublin at the height of boom to what they are now, roughly what percentage of a difference are we talking?

Mad_maxx

Rex Disgusting Tariff wrote: »

Completely agree, I remember friends buying at the depths in 2012.

A big problem too waa estate agents hated selling cheap houses to people they didn't know, the real dirt cheap stuff in good locations was kept for those with friends in property

Mad_maxx

JohnCleary wrote: »

There were better returns than that.

I'm aware of one Galway City example - purchased in 2011, sold in 2018 for 3 times the purchase price.... that's the market, I guess!

Apartments in ****ty parts of Limerick city could be bought for 30 k several years ago if you bought four or five of them, they are worth about 90k today, not remotely typical, bar back of beyond rural locations or crime ridden urban ones, tripping of prices does not happen

Mad_maxx

Pussyhands wrote: »

In Dublin region prices are up 94% from their low...

Two bed terraced houses in oxmantown Road stoneybatter were circa 220 k in summer 2012, your talking 390 k today, they were renting for 1100 per month the same summer

Mad_maxx

Calltocall wrote: »

I’ve been doing a bit of research into the difference between property prices in Dublin at the height of boom to what they are now, roughly what percentage of a difference are we talking?

South Dublin is max 10% off

Mad_maxx

Mad_maxx wrote: »

Getting mortgage approval was extremely hard unless you had at least 30% of a deposit until about 2014

I had no issues getting 320,000 Euro mortgage in 2009, & I was approved for more.
There's not a chance of me getting the same now & I have four times the deposit I had then!

JohnCleary

Mad_maxx wrote: »

Apartments in ****ty parts of Limerick city could be bought for 30 k several years ago if you bought four or five of them, they are worth about 90k today, not remotely typical, bar back of beyond rural locations or crime ridden urban ones, tripping of prices does not happen

I'm not talking about Limerick, as mentioned above i'm talking about Galway City Centre.

Solid build, excellent location (city centre), solid management company in place.... issue was that it was 2011 and damn all cash around. Every apartment in the complex (for sale), sold on the day. They were genuine bargains. In the few years alone from purchase to sale, the rent almost paid the purchase price (gross), and then sold for triple (purchase) price a few years later.

Each of these units were for sale individually, no bulk purchase necessary. No inside info needed, this was a (very) public auction.

Mad_maxx

JohnCleary wrote: »

I'm not talking about Limerick, as mentioned above i'm talking about Galway City Centre.

Solid build, excellent location (city centre), solid management company in place.... issue was that it was 2011 and damn all cash around. Every apartment in the complex (for sale), sold on the day. They were genuine bargains. In the few years alone from purchase to sale, the rent almost paid the purchase price (gross), and then sold for triple (purchase) price a few years later.

Each of these units were for sale individually, no bulk purchase necessary. No inside info needed, this was a (very) public auction.

Fair enough but those examples were quite rare and 2011 was not close to the bottom in Galway so it sounds like a quirky day

Calltocall

Mad_maxx wrote: »

South Dublin is max 10% off

Cheers & what you put the difference in North Dublin roughly at between peak boom and now?

JohnCleary

Mad_maxx wrote: »

Fair enough but those examples were quite rare and 2011 was not close to the bottom in Galway so it sounds like a quirky day

In the example I give, it certainly was the bottom (city centre apartments, with no strings attached).

If it weren't the bottom, show me an example of something that has more than tripled it's price since 2011.

Quirky day... possibly. But this was an auction that was advertised nationally, certainly took balls (imho) to bid on the day... but those who dared came out winners.

kippy

JohnCleary wrote: »

In the example I give, it certainly was the bottom (city centre apartments, with no strings attached).

If it weren't the bottom, show me an example of something that has more than tripled it's price since 2011.

Quirky day... possibly. But this was an auction that was advertised nationally, certainly took balls (imho) to bid on the day... but those who dared came out winners.

TBH,
I am not sure if something like that took balls, or access to cash. Not many people had access to cash, hence the prices!

Mad_maxx

JohnCleary wrote: »

In the example I give, it certainly was the bottom (city centre apartments, with no strings attached).

If it weren't the bottom, show me an example of something that has more than tripled it's price since 2011.

Quirky day... possibly. But this was an auction that was advertised nationally, certainly took balls (imho) to bid on the day... but those who dared came out winners.

1. 2011 wasn't the bottom in Galway or anywhere else

2.trebbling of prices is an anomaly

Mad_maxx

Calltocall wrote: »

Cheers & what you put the difference in North Dublin roughly at between peak boom and now?

Clontarf is closer to peak than santry, I'd say 15% in the desirable areas, West Dublin is furthest off, so many apartments in citywest and apartments further off

Glenbhoy

Mad_maxx wrote: »

Clontarf is closer to peak than santry, I'd say 15% in the desirable areas, West Dublin is furthest off, so many apartments in citywest and apartments further off

Rathfarnham, Terenure appear to be circa 65% of peak, anecdotal prices from way back v ppr, so more of a guestimate than anything else.

Again property specific, but prices haven't rocketed like elsewhere from the trough, specific estates in my area are about 50-60% up, but transactions at the bottom were minimal. More transactions circa 2014 and prices up by about 30-40% from then.

Bob24

Mad_maxx wrote: »

Getting mortgage approval was extremely hard unless you had at least 30% of a deposit until about 2014

I guess noone has hard figures to argue either way, but i disagree with that. Maybe people thought they were rejected because of an imaginary 30% deposit requirement, while in fact it is their LTI ratio, employment status, or savings history which were the issue. I certainly know of several people (including myself) who had mortgages approved during that time and I don’t remember ever reading about such requirement anywhere (do you are a source where a 30% deposit requirement is clearly mentioned?)

Plus what started this discussion is the fact that a poster mentioned that people who have been saving up for the bad times and hoping to buy then will find it nearly impossible to get funding. So in the group we are talking about, a lot will have those 30% deposits anyway.

Cuddlesworth

Glenbhoy wrote: »

Rathfarnham, Terenure appear to be circa 65% of peak, anecdotal prices from way back v ppr, so more of a guestimate than anything else.

Its worth pointing out that towards the end, when sales were cooling off and builders were bailing left and right, some wealthy people were still throwing money at houses. A house behind my parents house went for 1.2 mil in late 2007, the same house 4 doors down is currently looking for 725k, eg 60% of "peak" price. Except when the crash came, he was the only person in the row because nobody else bought them at those crazy prices.

Mad_maxx

Glenbhoy wrote: »

Rathfarnham, Terenure appear to be circa 65% of peak, anecdotal prices from way back v ppr, so more of a guestimate than anything else.

Again property specific, but prices haven't rocketed like elsewhere from the trough, specific estates in my area are about 50-60% up, but transactions at the bottom were minimal. More transactions circa 2014 and prices up by about 30-40% from then.

Not even the bogs of Leitrim are 65% off peak.

If you think rathfarnham is that far off peak, your calendar must read February 2012