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Windy & Heavy Rain Watch With Possible Local Flooding (Thurs/Fri June 14/15)
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13-06-2012 11:57am#1While no official warning has been issued , the outlook for part of Thursday into Friday looks fairly miserable with what looks like some prolonged rain and the possibility of embedded thundery downpours. So based on current models a heavy rain watch with some brisk winds is worth keeping an eye on as some localised flooding may become an issue once again. It does not look particularly serious at the moment but deserving of a thread just in case.
Met Éireann
http://www.met.ie/forecasts/
Thursday
Heavier more persistent rain in the southwest will gradually extend countrywide. Becoming windy too, with strengthening easterly winds. Highest temperatures will range 13 to 17 degrees Celsius, best values across the northern half of the country.
Thursday night will be wet and windy with gale force easterly winds and persistent and heavy, driving rain especially in the East and Southeast.
Friday will continue wet in many areas with some very heavy downpours giving spot flooding. The rain will turn more showery in Southern parts with some brighter spells but the showers here are likely to be very heavy and thundery with the continued risk of flooding locally.
Highest temperatures will range 12 to 15 degrees but the strong East to Southeast winds will make it feel cool.
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Below are model comparison charts from the main models showing location of system at +48hrs in first image of 4 and +72hrs in second image of 4.
They also include the precip totals for said time period. So if we take the GFS as an example, first set of charts we can see that much of the south of the country is looking at between 20mm-30mm of rain up to friday 00.00 and then another 10mm-15mm up to Saturday 00.00.
Just a thought of what we could be experiencing.
+48
+72
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Green Diesel wrote: »I expect a deluge to make up for last weeks dissappointment
I've relocated to Kildare for this week, looking at the maps should be a bit wetter here than Mayo.
If you are in Newbridge now you are getting your wish!0 -
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Yes Summer seems to get worse every year. For the past 6 anyways. I was sure that this one would be warm. Maybe July will be. The weather hasnt been all that bad in Sligo really apart from the monsoon days of June 7th and 8th.
Next week there will be a slight improvement in weather conditions as the week goes on but we will never reach the warm day that 9 day forecasts are predicting ...in 9 days..every day!
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This type of pattern (lows moving close to the south of Ireland) really has been a dominant feature since the start of April last. Looking back at the synoptic analysis charts, it seems the shift towards this pattern occurred just after the fine spell in late March when the anticyclone responsible moved to our NW which coincided with a shift southward of the mean position of the Jet Stream.
Stats wise, this really is reflected in the rainfall total distribution across the country over the last couple of months. For the period 1st April up to midnight yesterday (12th June) the wettest station in the country is Johnstown Castle in Co. Wexford which has seen a grand total of 254.5mm so far. Casement's period total not far behind at 246.0mm. On the other end of the spectrum, Malin Head, yes, Malin! is the driest of all the reporting stations since the start of April with Belfast Aldergrove's period total of 142mm not far behind.
Table showing rainfall totals at selected synoptic stations for the period 1st April to 12th June 2012, shows just how abnormal distribution has been across the country over the period in question. (data from met.ie & Ogimet)
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Regardless of what the rainfall totals say below in chart till Saturday midday. I think it gives a good indication of where highest rainfall locations will be. All along the south, south east and eastern coastal counties could experience some flooding when you also take into account the strong onshore wind that may heap up water. South midlands should also experience a good soaking.
Still no official rainfall warning on Met Éireann website
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Aron Powerful Turkey wrote: »
It is, believe me! The rain is really heavy. Looked at aa roadwatch website there and not even a mention of any surface water.0 -
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Metoalarm have 2 yellow warnings issued for south and east
Between 30 and 40 mm of rain is expected.
"Southeast to east winds will gust to between 80 and 100 km/hr today."
http://www.meteoalarm.eu/index3.php?area=IE001&day=0&lang=0 -
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Yes there are some notable rain shadows showing up on the radar, with a particularly obvious one in eastern Kildare and southwestern Dublin. There was one to the northwest of the Magillacuddy Reeks too earlier, and another around the Burren.
I'm literally a few kilometres away from the rain shadow. Driving past Leixlip and Maynooth on the M4 and it was bone dry and I had wipers fully off. Only as I approached my exit at Kilcock did I see the first few drops of rain. Less than a km up the Enfield Road and it regular rain. By the time I turned onto the back road to home, the rain was moderate to heavy and there were streams of water rolling down the sides of the road. From the point of no rain to persistent moderate to fairly heavy rain is less than 5km distance as the crow flies. My hubby was driving back to Maynooth a little while ago and it was dry there still about a half hour ago. Meanwhile I can clearly hear the rain on the roof here!0 -
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PKHD1uTCeQI
spot flooding everywhere. 
This discussion has been closed.
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