Windy & Heavy Rain Watch With Possible Local Flooding (Thurs/Fri June 14/15)

Redsunset

While no official warning has been issued , the outlook for part of Thursday into Friday looks fairly miserable with what looks like some prolonged rain and the possibility of embedded thundery downpours. So based on current models a heavy rain watch with some brisk winds is worth keeping an eye on as some localised flooding may become an issue once again. It does not look particularly serious at the moment but deserving of a thread just in case.


Met Éireann
http://www.met.ie/forecasts/

Thursday
Heavier more persistent rain in the southwest will gradually extend countrywide. Becoming windy too, with strengthening easterly winds. Highest temperatures will range 13 to 17 degrees Celsius, best values across the northern half of the country.

Thursday night will be wet and windy with gale force easterly winds and persistent and heavy, driving rain especially in the East and Southeast.

Friday will continue wet in many areas with some very heavy downpours giving spot flooding. The rain will turn more showery in Southern parts with some brighter spells but the showers here are likely to be very heavy and thundery with the continued risk of flooding locally.
Highest temperatures will range 12 to 15 degrees but the strong East to Southeast winds will make it feel cool.

DOCARCH

Groundhog Day! :pac: Here we go again.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Some interesting weather ! Excellent !

Redsunset

Below are model comparison charts from the main models showing location of system at +48hrs in first image of 4 and +72hrs in second image of 4.
They also include the precip totals for said time period. So if we take the GFS as an example, first set of charts we can see that much of the south of the country is looking at between 20mm-30mm of rain up to friday 00.00 and then another 10mm-15mm up to Saturday 00.00.
Just a thought of what we could be experiencing.

+48


+72

Redsunset

Also of some note is that the UKMO have issued a Be Aware for eastern parts of Northern Ireland. Valid from: 0005 on Fri 15 Jun 2012, Valid to: 2359 on Fri 15 Jun 2012

Rain will become persistent and at times heavy during Friday, with the heaviest rain over more eastern parts of Northern Ireland. The rain will be accompanied by strong easterly winds. The public should be aware of the risk of localised flooding.


And I forgot to mention our resident forecaster M.T Cranium also issued this alert this morning.

ADVANCE ALERT continued for heavy rain and strong winds developing Thursday and persisting through Friday into early Saturday. Heaviest rains south-central counties, 50-75 mms total, otherwise 25-50 mms.

Green Diesel

I expect a deluge to make up for last weeks dissappointment

I've relocated to Kildare for this week, looking at the maps should be a bit wetter here than Mayo.

scargill

Green Diesel wrote: »

I expect a deluge to make up for last weeks dissappointment

I've relocated to Kildare for this week, looking at the maps should be a bit wetter here than Mayo.

If you are in Newbridge now you are getting your wish!

Green Diesel

scargill wrote: »

If you are in Newbridge now you are getting your wish!

Has to be persistent to be of any use

Anyway, working out in Ballymun at the moment, but based in Leixlip for the week. Bring on the rain.

Birdnuts

This is the wettest first half of June I can ever remember - its been p***ing rain here most of today and those charts from Tommorrow to Saturday are frankly scary:(

PS: Anyone see the Beeb forecast this lunchtime - mentioned snow in the Scottish highlands from this system!!:eek:

pauldry

Yes Summer seems to get worse every year. For the past 6 anyways. I was sure that this one would be warm. Maybe July will be. The weather hasnt been all that bad in Sligo really apart from the monsoon days of June 7th and 8th.

Next week there will be a slight improvement in weather conditions as the week goes on but we will never reach the warm day that 9 day forecasts are predicting ...in 9 days..every day!

Deep Easterly

This type of pattern (lows moving close to the south of Ireland) really has been a dominant feature since the start of April last. Looking back at the synoptic analysis charts, it seems the shift towards this pattern occurred just after the fine spell in late March when the anticyclone responsible moved to our NW which coincided with a shift southward of the mean position of the Jet Stream.

Stats wise, this really is reflected in the rainfall total distribution across the country over the last couple of months. For the period 1st April up to midnight yesterday (12th June) the wettest station in the country is Johnstown Castle in Co. Wexford which has seen a grand total of 254.5mm so far. Casement's period total not far behind at 246.0mm. On the other end of the spectrum, Malin Head, yes, Malin! is the driest of all the reporting stations since the start of April with Belfast Aldergrove's period total of 142mm not far behind.

Table showing rainfall totals at selected synoptic stations for the period 1st April to 12th June 2012, shows just how abnormal distribution has been across the country over the period in question. (data from met.ie & Ogimet)

up for anything

One of mine is off on his school tour to Ardmore Adventure Centre (Co Waterford). What are the chances that it'll be perfect weather for surfing or will it be too windy for beginners?

cruais

Anyone have a proper update for Saturday? Wedding day! I don't fancy swimming to the church!

Nabber

Could change by Saturday. But below is how 2 of the models look for Saturday

GFS


UKMO

Redsunset

Regardless of what the rainfall totals say below in chart till Saturday midday. I think it gives a good indication of where highest rainfall locations will be. All along the south, south east and eastern coastal counties could experience some flooding when you also take into account the strong onshore wind that may heap up water. South midlands should also experience a good soaking.

Still no official rainfall warning on Met Éireann website

Cantona's Collars

The Daily Mail have an article about this system with a warning for the Southwest of UK & Wales,grand until you read the typical nonsense comments such as "time to slap on the sunscreen so".

So far in the past 2 days,every single time I step outside to do some work in my garden it has rained.It stopped about half an hour ago so out I went....made it as far as the shed door & viola-rain.

Babooshka

redsunset wrote: »

Regardless of what the rainfall totals say below in chart till Saturday midday. I think it gives a good indication of where highest rainfall locations will be. All along the south, south east and eastern coastal counties could experience some flooding when you also take into account the strong onshore wind that may heap up water. South midlands should also experience a good soaking.

Still no official rainfall warning on Met Éireann website

EEK! Company "Bar-B-Q" this afternoon - West Dublin, do you reckon it'll be raining going by that at around 2.30 / 3 today?

Redsunset

Babooshka wrote: »

EEK! Company "Bar-B-Q" this afternoon - West Dublin, do you reckon it'll be raining going by that at around 2.30 / 3 today?

Rain Is already creeping up from the south and could be there come 3 pm. The weather will deteriorate as the day goes on anyway. A marquee would be ideal.

sunbabe08

heading back down to youghal today. meh. it'll be grand

gbee

Force 8 to strong galeforce 9 expected on southern coasts overnight with the system becoming cyclonic off the Kerry coast tomorrow.

Calibos

Rain has arrrived in Bray

MrFrisp

Some rain falling by the bucket load in Cork now...It's just relentless.....

I love it..






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MrFrisp

cruais wrote: »

Anyone have a proper update for Saturday? Wedding day! I don't fancy swimming to the church!

This is for Saturday,,according to M.E.


"The rain will begin to move away to the east on Saturday morning, but eastern parts will still have some heavy bursts. In the west of the country it will become drier and brighter. The strong northerly winds will also ease off in the evening. Highs of 12 to 17 degrees, and it will be coolest in northern areas.
As the rain clears on Saturday night it will become chilly with lows of 4 to 8 degrees."




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jjj6894x

there's no real chance of another october 2011-style disaster, is there?

nelly17

A big contribitury factor in Oct 2011 was the time of year a lot of stormdrains etc were clogged up with leaves which didnt help matters.

Redsunset

jjj6894x wrote: »

there's no real chance of another october 2011-style disaster, is there?

This is nothing really. Standard wet and windy weather with a chance of spot flooding.

jjj6894x

redsunset wrote: »

This is nothing really. Standard wet and windy weather with a chance of spot flooding.

thanks.

while i'm at it, what exactly constitutes "spot flooding"? as a meteorological ignoramus, i have googled the term and can find no specific definition of what it is.

leahyl

Rain is worse in Cork today than it was last Thursday! Hasn't stopped since about 8.30/9 this morning

MrFrisp

leahyl wrote: »

Rain is worse in Cork today than it was last Thursday! Hasn't stopped since about 8.30/9 this morning

Yeah,,it's great.....Pity it's not Friday...I'd be settled in by now,,knowing I don't have to go anywhere else,,and would have beer in the fridge.





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Storm 10

Just heard after the 4pm news on RTE that the wind will reach storm force overnight in the South West

leahyl

SexyGuy wrote: »

Yeah,,it's great.....Pity it's not Friday...I'd be settled in by now,,knowing I don't have to go anywhere else,,and would have beer in the fridge.





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Match tonight though so looking forward to that - a lovely night to be plonked in front of the tv:D

h57xiucj2z946q

look at http://www.raintoday.co.uk/ ! looks mad!

leahyl

Aron Powerful Turkey wrote: »

look at http://www.raintoday.co.uk/ ! looks mad!

It is, believe me! The rain is really heavy. Looked at aa roadwatch website there and not even a mention of any surface water.

gbee

We've 20mm of rain to this time, nice.

leahyl

On the way home now - crazy rain and wind!

MrFrisp

gbee wrote: »

We've 20mm of rain to this time, nice.

Yup,,that about sums it up..

It's fantastic..

Great video...The sound of the rain says it all really.





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munsterlegend

leahyl wrote: »

On the way home now - crazy rain and wind!

am surprised there isn't a warning out from Met Eireann - definitely a lot heavier rain than last week so far.

Jpmarn

Rain getting heavy around Limerick city ATM.

vickers209

Metoalarm have 2 yellow warnings issued for south and east


Between 30 and 40 mm of rain is expected.


"Southeast to east winds will gust to between 80 and 100 km/hr today."

http://www.meteoalarm.eu/index3.php?area=IE001&day=0&lang=

John2009

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PKHD1uTCeQI

pad199207

Getting well protected by the Mountains here!

Hardly a drop of rain here in Naas

Su Campu

Yes there are some notable rain shadows showing up on the radar, with a particularly obvious one in eastern Kildare and southwestern Dublin. There was one to the northwest of the Magillacuddy Reeks too earlier, and another around the Burren.

gbee

23mm of rain today so far.

DOCARCH

Su Campu wrote: »

Yes there are some notable rain shadows showing up on the radar, with a particularly obvious one in eastern Kildare and southwestern Dublin.

6.2mm here so far, I saw very little rain recorded at Casement this afternoon.

highdef

Su Campu wrote: »

Yes there are some notable rain shadows showing up on the radar, with a particularly obvious one in eastern Kildare and southwestern Dublin. There was one to the northwest of the Magillacuddy Reeks too earlier, and another around the Burren.

I'm literally a few kilometres away from the rain shadow. Driving past Leixlip and Maynooth on the M4 and it was bone dry and I had wipers fully off. Only as I approached my exit at Kilcock did I see the first few drops of rain. Less than a km up the Enfield Road and it regular rain. By the time I turned onto the back road to home, the rain was moderate to heavy and there were streams of water rolling down the sides of the road. From the point of no rain to persistent moderate to fairly heavy rain is less than 5km distance as the crow flies. My hubby was driving back to Maynooth a little while ago and it was dry there still about a half hour ago. Meanwhile I can clearly hear the rain on the roof here!

Su Campu

And I've only recorded 1.0 mm here in Celbridge.

sunbabe08

was in the passenger seat being driven down youghal at about half 3. scared beyond belief. didn't realize the rain was that bad. spot flooding everywhere.

highdef

Su Campu wrote: »

And I've only recorded 1.0 mm here in Celbridge.

Only about 15km from you. I don't have rainfall readings but I can tell you that is most definitely many multiples of 1mm!

Sierra Oscar

Plenty of spot flooding beginning to emerge across areas of Dublin.

vickers209

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Plenty of spot flooding beginning to emerge across areas of Dublin.

where about? heading up that way nw

Supercell

Moderate rain for the last few hours here, my flower beds are flooding!