Heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms & flash flood risk - South, East - Aug 1-3

Kermit.de.frog · 01-08-2014 10:26am #1

Folks, some intense pulses of rain are possible in the south this evening extending to Leinster over night. Anything up to 80mm between tonight and Sunday morning (edit). Smaller chance it could miss us in to the Irish sea but Met Eireann have already issued a warning and some of the higher resolution models indicate the possibility of significant amounts of rain in torrential pulses. Some embedded thunderstorms are also likely.

On Saturday morning/early afternoon the risk extends northwards and covers Ulster and North Connaught.

More anon.

leahyl · 01-08-2014 10:30am

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Folks, some intense pulses of rain are possible in the south this evening extending to Leinster over night. Anything up to 80mm is possible. Smaller chance it could miss us in to the Irish sea but Met Eireann have already issued a warning and some of the higher resolution models indicate the possibility of significant amounts of rain in torrential pulses. Some embedded thunderstorms are also likely.

More anon.

:eek::eek: Are you serious??

Kermit.de.frog · 01-08-2014 10:38am

leahyl wrote: »

:eek::eek: Are you serious??

Sorry I meant 8 mm:P

Nah over an extended period of time. I wouldn't expect that tonight but by tomorrow afternoon/evening some areas could get there. ME going for 40 - 70 mm. Depends on the rain rate in the early hours of tomorrow morning. Something to watch.

Personally I wouldn't see it as an "orange" warning but that's what Met Eireann have put out. Lets run with it.

cherryghost · 01-08-2014 11:37am

It's hitting SE and then swirling in the area before heading north, so it may not be exceptionally heavy but it looks to be consistent.

Larbre34 · 01-08-2014 12:54pm

Yeah I think the slow moving nature of this will be the key aspect. On the other hand the ground must be well drained at the moment so perhaps surface flooding in natural basins and blocked shores will be the worst of it.

RobertKK · 01-08-2014 1:37pm

Land is very dry in the south east, where I live it was back around the 18th of July we got any real rain when less than 5mm fell and before that it was the 7th July when about 4mm fell.

Last night we had another 4mm..
Ground can take a lot of rain but ground is hard still so run off could be a problem.

Aerohead · 01-08-2014 2:50pm

I don't know how we have this heavy rain in the West because according to Met E this morning we were in for a fine day with the odd shower which is still on their website, this has moved North East instead of East in my books, no expert here anyone comment

Storm 10 · 01-08-2014 3:22pm

Hmmm I see they have now changed their forecast to heavy rain in the West etc. wonder why

cherryghost · 01-08-2014 4:34pm

Storm 10 wrote: »

Hmmm I see they have now changed their forecast to heavy rain in the West etc. wonder why

Mets update from 10 minutes ago states otherwise

Super-Rush · 01-08-2014 5:06pm

Carlow coco just sent a text out to check Met Eireann's warning.

hairybelly · 01-08-2014 5:18pm

Power just cut here. Not stormy or evening looking like its going to be. Wonder if its related.

illumin · 01-08-2014 5:33pm

hairybelly wrote: »

Power just cut here. Not stormy or evening looking like its going to be. Wonder if its related.

Where is "here"?

Red Nissan · 01-08-2014 6:20pm

Nice little shower now.
21mm/hr rate and 2.4mm in just a few minutes, so it was nice, but brief.

Video · 01-08-2014 7:11pm

Some heavy rain here for the past 30 minutes

whitebriar · 01-08-2014 7:24pm

Hmmmmm...latest bbc news 24 forecast graphics has most of the rain out in the Irish sea..

Video · 01-08-2014 8:07pm

Looks like the warning has disappeared from met website, still the southeast will probably get some action

pad199207 · 01-08-2014 8:11pm

Video wrote: »

Looks like the warning has disappeared from met website, still the southeast will probably get some action

update

DOCARCH · 01-08-2014 8:14pm

pad199207 wrote: »

update

Yeah...it's back again. Orange warning for heavy rain.

Supercell · 01-08-2014 8:34pm

Strange , http://www.meteoalarm.eu/en_UK/0/0/IE-Ireland.html has no warnings currently for Leinster, Level 2 here seems a little over egged.

Aerohead · 01-08-2014 8:41pm

This rain is moving more North than the original forecast, is this the rain ME has the warnings for

AndyP · 01-08-2014 8:48pm

Supercell wrote: »

Strange , http://www.meteoalarm.eu/en_UK/0/0/IE-Ireland.html has no warnings currently for Leinster, Level 2 here seems a little over egged.

Meteoalarm has an orange warning for us tomorrow.

RobbingBandit · 01-08-2014 8:53pm

What did sky news forecast say besides that the russians are behind this bad weather?

whitebriar · 01-08-2014 8:56pm

Aerohead wrote: »

This rain is moving more North than the original forecast, is this the rain ME has the warnings for

pulses.
An eastern flank later will take the same trajectory but the question is how Far East or west it will be.
Siobhan Ryans guess earlier was it will be relentless but where is the question.Will it hug the east coast? Will it stay out to sea? Will it move more inland?
Glasnevin expect it to be in over Leinster and eventually Ulster all day.
The UK MO don't or at least reckon in their words that there's some question if it might reach NI.
Their graphics had on and off lightish rain in the East but certainly nothing dramatic.

zetecescort · 01-08-2014 9:01pm

met eireann crying wolf again over abit of rain. this is Ireland, we're well used to it

Meteorite58 · 01-08-2014 9:17pm

I wouldn't ignore this one. Slow moving system literally parked over East Munster and Leinster and later Ulster, heavy persistent rain. To clear Northwards as Sunday goes on.

Nows your chance to head to the SW for some better weather before it's too late,

Jpmarn · 01-08-2014 9:21pm

When describing the weather in your area please mention your approximate location and county. The location under username does not appear under mobile versions of this website. Sorry mods if a bit off topic as I try to remind fellow posters.

mickger844posts · 01-08-2014 10:24pm

I see now Waterford included in the Met warning. I think 40 to 70mm is overstating amounts to some extent. I will take a punt at 15 to 20mm at my station for the 24hr period from midnight.

www.waterfordcityweather.com

Harry Palmr · 01-08-2014 10:47pm

and the first of the heavy rain has just arrived.

March11 · 01-08-2014 11:00pm

Heavy rain here with the last hour. Halfway between Youghal and Dungarvan.

dexter647 · 01-08-2014 11:03pm

A lot of rain for leinster over the next 24hrs which my lawn welcomes..

Harry Palmr · 01-08-2014 11:06pm

My lawns ran away in shock! :pac:

Supercell · 01-08-2014 11:47pm

Looking at the rainfall radar looks like its been very very wet in Fermanagh (does anyone actually live there?) , northwest Cavan and Leitrim so far.

Rock Lesnar · 01-08-2014 11:51pm

We had Rain here in meath earlier, fairly persistant with a couple of heavy bursts for a couple of hours.

Oscar Bravo · 01-08-2014 11:51pm

Meanwhile out west about 10pm

Video · 01-08-2014 11:52pm

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Meanwhile out west about 10pm

Dont worry the cloud is on its way

Rougies · 02-08-2014 12:23am

Supercell wrote: »

Looking at the rainfall radar looks like its been very very wet in Fermanagh (does anyone actually live there?) , northwest Cavan and Leitrim so far.

I'm pretty sure I remember a Fermangdhonian posting here during the ice age of 2009/10.

This slow moving setup has the potential to wreak havoc on the areas in the drainage areas of the eastern slopes of the Wicklow mountains, similar to October 2011.

km79 · 02-08-2014 12:28am

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Meanwhile out west about 10pm

the sun is shining on Mayo this weekend

Oscar Bravo · 02-08-2014 12:32am

it sure is, for once although Monday should be pretty good everywhere.

Supercell · 02-08-2014 12:38am

Heres a quick capture from raintoday.co.uk radar.

The two areas of rain seem to be merging together on the radar with quite heavy rain likely over the eastern fringes from the looks of it. Garden needs it.

RobertKK · 02-08-2014 12:52am

7mm in the last hour.
North Kilkenny.

mirrorwall14 · 02-08-2014 12:55am

Drove Mayo to Dublin between 830-1230 tonight. It rained from Frenchpark the whole way to Dublin. Literally felt like the dead of winter and there was epic amounts of water on the road. Definite potential for flooding.

Trebor176 · 02-08-2014 2:09am

All quiet in Dublin for now.

Super-Rush · 02-08-2014 2:28am

Lots of surface water on the drive home from Wicklow to Carlow. Gonna be bad come morning.

Calibos · 02-08-2014 2:36am

Bucketing down in Bray for last 15 minutes or so. If this intensity is maintained for the forecast duration then be afraid, be very afraid!

At least the loud mouth gob****es on their way home from the pubs on the seafront tonight will be shut up

whiskeyman · 02-08-2014 3:26am

Driving rain in dublin over the past half hour or so.
Queue for taxis would be rotten tonight!

RobbingBandit · 02-08-2014 3:35am

Lashing in Phibsborough/Cabra right now no thunder or lightning though.

Bongalongherb · 02-08-2014 3:35am

Just starting to get going in Swords Co. Dublin... It's edging up nicely... A nice accumulation gathering closer together now for Dublin.

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/