So Michael D IS running again!

hotmail.com · 26-10-2018 10:23pm

Sad night if you're a Traveller.

touts · 26-10-2018 10:29pm

Seismic result. Contrasting this with the poor poll results from the likes of Renua this shows that there is a substantial right wing support out there as long as it isn't hijacked by Catholic fundamentalists.

blanch152 · 26-10-2018 10:30pm

hotmail.com wrote: »

Probably very depressing to hear if you're an ordinary Traveller.

hotmail.com wrote: »

Sad night if you're a Traveller.

Repeating something doesn't make it true.

hotmail.com · 26-10-2018 10:32pm

touts wrote:

Seismic result. Contrasting this with the poor poll results from the likes of Renua this shows that there is a substantial right wing support out there as long as it isn't hijacked by Catholic fundamentalists.

Yeah strangely many on the right won't entertain homophobia or sexism, they aren't religious or against abortion but have a really big issue with non Irish people.

maynooth_rules · 26-10-2018 10:32pm

Think this vote shows that there is room in Irish politics for a decent centre right party. Caseys comments about us becoming a welfare state with so many people pushing for 'entitlements' seems to have struck a cord with the squeezed middle class. While Leo may have talked the talk about helping those who get up early in the morning, he hasn't lived up to it. There is a good chunk of the electorate that want the generous welfare payments for the long term unemployed to be tackled

hotmail.com · 26-10-2018 10:32pm

blanch152 wrote:

Repeating something doesn't make it true.

Well it's probably fair to say that Travellers aren't going to be happy to hear Casey jumped 20 odd points.

I suspect they are feeling pretty bad tonight. Travellers have feelings too you know.

FrancieBrady · 26-10-2018 10:33pm

Ronan|Raven wrote: »

What is astonishing about it? Shout populist ****e and watch people cling onto it?

You can sense the disappointment actually. There was supposed to be a groundswell of feeling behind his 'sentiment's. I would say he tapped into a fairly permanent rump of never satisfied unhappiness of 20% He was a single issue candidate and the issue got 20% of a 40- 50% turnout.

Good luck to anyone or any party that wants to build on that base.

Shelga · 26-10-2018 10:33pm

touts wrote: »

Seismic result. Contrasting this with the poor poll results from the likes of Renua this shows that there is a substantial right wing support out there as long as it isn't hijacked by Catholic fundamentalists.

But it’s nothing to do with right wing/left wing. It’s people absolutely fed up that someone is branded ‘right-wing’ for speaking undeniable truths, and having proper debate completely stifled in favour of echo-chambers.

An Ciarraioch · 26-10-2018 10:34pm

touts wrote: »

Seismic result. Contrasting this with the poor poll results from the likes of Renua this shows that there is a substantial right wing support out there as long as it isn't hijacked by Catholic fundamentalists.

More a PDs Nua than anything comparable with the European right, I'd suggest - parties that have campaigned against immigration and/or Europe here have never gained much support.

Loafing Oaf · 26-10-2018 10:34pm

touts wrote: »

Seismic result. Contrasting this with the poor poll results from the likes of Renua this shows that there is a substantial right wing support out there as long as it isn't hijacked by Catholic fundamentalists.

All hypothetical until it materialises at a general election.

hotmail.com · 26-10-2018 10:36pm

FrancieBrady wrote:

You can sense the disappointment actually. There was supposed to be a groundswell of feeling behind his 'sentiment's. I would say he tapped into a fairly permanent rump of never satisfied unhappiness of 20% He was a single issue candidate and the issue got 20% of a 40- 50% turnout.

FrancieBrady wrote:

Good luck to anyone or any party that wants to build on that base.

Given the PR system, 20% of the electorate is pretty significant and will tempt the desperate to make similar comments at future elections.

Anti-Muslim comments may also attract support from the same minority.

EdgeCase · 26-10-2018 10:40pm

The only thing I would say is that in an election where you had several well-seasoned high profile candidates backed by parties, and the whole party election machine in full swing, the debates and engagement would have been different.

I don't really think you could translate that 20% of a low turnout in an odd election into much more than what it is.

It would be stupid to think that Ireland's immune to populism though. We've destroyed the country on several occasions with it. Crazy low tax high spend FF governments in the past, hysterical right wing referenda that placed dogmatic, absolute bans on abortion etc etc.

hotmail.com · 26-10-2018 10:41pm

Shelga wrote:

But itâ€™s nothing to do with right wing/left wing. Itâ€™s people absolutely fed up that someone is branded â€˜right-wingâ€™ for speaking undeniable truths, and having proper debate completely stifled in favour of echo-chambers.

But it's people like you that aren't open to debate and open to changing your mind.

You've probably had the same beliefs for years.

Tell me how · 26-10-2018 10:46pm

The analysis and effect of this is going to be interesting.

AAA, PBP must be nervous tonight as the emergence of right wing candidates/party could strangely eat their lunch as opposed to affecting the bigger parties.

Would be bizarre if votes moved from outer left to the right but if the sense is that a right leaning candidate is anti-establishment, it might be the above who suffer.

nuac · 26-10-2018 10:46pm

hotmail.com wrote: »

That president was unhappy in the office and wanted a way out. He didn't need to resign.

But we would be in uncharted territory if Casey was an outspoken president!

Liadh vowed to be a confrontational president as well, with a promise to address the Dail 3 times a year!

A drunken cabinet minister called the President a thundering disgrace at a function for and attended by Army officers. Taoiseach refused to do anything about that public insult to their Commander in Chief.

Imho Ó'Dálaigh had no other option but to resign.

btw there are rumours that Donegan used a stronger adjective than "thundering"

Tell me how · 26-10-2018 10:48pm

Shelga wrote:

But itâ€™s nothing to do with right wing/left wing. Itâ€™s people absolutely fed up that someone is branded â€˜right-wingâ€™ for speaking undeniable truths, and having proper debate completely stifled in favour of echo-chambers.

Let me guess, the 'undeniable truths' are the views you hold, 'branding' is carried out by the left who also are the ones who listen to 'echo chambers'.

Can you see how this might be interpreted as pot calling kettle black?

Alan_P · 26-10-2018 10:49pm

I doubt Casey's visit proves anything very much really. I suspect he essentially concentrated the votes of those who hated MDH. As a random example, my mother-in-law was adamant from the start she hated MDH and wasn't voting for him :- she voted for Casey,so far as I can gather because he was the only other name she recognized.

Disastrous, humiliating result for SF :- the first major decision of McDonald's leadership, and she got it catastrophically wrong.

Silentcorner · 26-10-2018 10:49pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

You can sense the disappointment actually. There was supposed to be a groundswell of feeling behind his 'sentiment's. I would say he tapped into a fairly permanent rump of never satisfied unhappiness of 20% He was a single issue candidate and the issue got 20% of a 40- 50% turnout.

Good luck to anyone or any party that wants to build on that base.

He achieved 20% or thereabouts in a National Election, by spending circa €70,000 despite all the efforts of the Irish Establishment, he achieved this not because he is an articulate slick salesman, he identified an issue that has been ignored for too long...

SF, a party of massive resources and has a national infrastructure and has ambitions of government in the Republic failed miserably in this election, everyone, including Irish Media, the other candidates, FG/FF/Lab, bar Casey has come out of this more damaged than they the state they were in at the beginning of this race!

FrancieBrady · 26-10-2018 10:50pm

hotmail.com wrote: »

Given the PR system, 20% of the electorate is pretty significant and will tempt the desperate to make similar comments at future elections.

Anti-Muslim comments may also attract support from the same minority.

20% of 40-50% at best, of the the electorate on a single issue. Seriously, it is premature to say there is any mandate or party foundation here.

Shelga · 26-10-2018 10:52pm

Tell me how wrote: »

Let me guess, the 'undeniable truths' are the views you hold, 'branding' is carried out by the left who also are the ones who listen to 'echo chambers'.

Can you see how this might be interpreted as pot calling kettle black?

I think calling someone racist repeatedly, when they clearly aren’t, is unacceptable. Of course I welcome the other candidates to say whatever they like. Shame all five of them lied about being only delighted to have travellers move in next door to them.

Tell me how · 26-10-2018 10:52pm

Silentcorner wrote:

SF leadership went for a female specifically, that's where they went wrong, their candidate did not connect with voters at all, they should have gone with a much warmer personality regardless of gender, this missed an opportunity they created for themselves, it can't inspire confidence in leadership!

Yeah. I think them and SG are hurting most tonight.

Tell me how · 26-10-2018 10:52pm

Silentcorner wrote:

SF, a party of massive resources and has a national infrastructure and has ambitions of government in the Republic failed miserably in this election, everyone, including Irish Media, the other candidates, FG/FF/Lab, bar Casey has come out of this more damaged than everyone else!

The candidate backed by FG/FF/LAB is looking like they came out with pretty much the same vote that they were polling a month ago.

Think those parties will be OK with that.

Let the 20% 'majority' fight it out with the others.

Silentcorner · 26-10-2018 10:53pm

Alan_P wrote: »

I doubt Casey's visit proves anything very much really. I suspect he essentially concentrated the votes of those who hated MDH. As a random example, my mother-in-law was adamant from the start she hated MDH and wasn't voting for him :- she voted for Casey,so far as I can gather because he was the only other name she recognized.

Disastrous, humiliating result for SF :- the first major decision of McDonald's leadership, and she got it catastrophically wrong.

SF leadership went for a female specifically, that's where they went wrong, their candidate did not connect with voters at all, they should have gone with a much warmer personality regardless of gender, this missed an opportunity they created for themselves, it can't inspire confidence in leadership!

nuac · 26-10-2018 10:54pm

richiepurgas wrote: »

There was only one reporter in the room when the remarks were made and he has consistently said, even as late as about 3 years ago, that the words reported were entirely accurate.

Donegan was a loose cannon, later tried for shooting into the air over a travelers' encampment. The Casey of his time ?

That remark is grossly unfair to Casey

Silentcorner · 26-10-2018 10:54pm

Tell me how wrote: »

The candidate backed by FG/FF/LAB is looking like they came out with pretty much the same vote that they were polling a month ago.

Think those parties will be OK with that.

Let the 20% 'majority' fight it out with the others.

Wasn't Higgins on 68% at the last poll?

Tell me how · 26-10-2018 10:54pm

Silentcorner wrote:

Wasn't Higgins on 68% at the last poll?

Yes. But he was on 60% a month ago before the weakness of the rest was evident and before Peters comments.

FrancieBrady · 26-10-2018 10:56pm

Silentcorner wrote: »

He achieved 20% or thereabouts in a National Election, by spending circa €70,000 despite all the efforts of the Irish Establishment, he achieved this not because he is an articulate slick salesman, he identified an issue that has been ignored for too long...

SF, a party of massive resources and has a national infrastructure and has ambitions of government in the Republic failed miserably in this election, everyone, including Irish Media, the other candidates, FG/FF/Lab, bar Casey has come out of this more damaged than everyone else!

The polls had the incumbent at 70% the week before the election. All candidates were not going to do well in that scenario. One candidate found an issue (by accident apparently) that was always going to be a touchstone for a certain cohort or percentile of the electorate and he had no scruples broaching that subject, generalising the issues and targeting one community.
To my dying day I will have respect for Freeman, Ni Riada, Higgins, Duffy and even Gallagher, for not plumbing the depths with him.
As decent human beings they are head and shoulders above the man from Derry IMO.

EdgeCase · 26-10-2018 10:58pm

What I see in this is a group of political parties who opted to back the popular incumbent and try to avoid an election instead of giving people a choice.

The result was a candidate vacuum and that's pretty much what you're looking at in terms of the 20%.

It'll be interesting to see how the actual result compares tomorrow.

It's very straight forward if Michael D. gets more than 50% of the vote in the first count, as it's not actually proportional representation in a presidential election, rather it's using the mechanism of PR-STV voting to produce an 'instant runoff' (IRV) election

FrancieBrady · 26-10-2018 11:07pm

mikemac2 wrote: »

My god, so dramatic

Sure gwan, release your inner Michael D and give us a poem

Nothing dramatic intended. Just needs to be said that the rest of them stayed within the bounds of decency. One candidate lied, indulged in mis-truths, fell apart trying to defend his rabble rousing, manipulated the gullible voter (the weekend break) and his name was Peter Casey. And he got the vote which tallies with what I reckon the support for that carry on is, in the country.

Rhineshark · 26-10-2018 11:08pm

So Higgins started around 69% and ends up with 58% with the nearest contender at 20%. About expected bar Gallagher not being that second.

There was a strong element of piss-taking to the Casey ("for the craic") vote, Higgins was expected to have it in the bag, and the turnout was pretty low with only two candidates that anyone could muster a toss for. And Gallagher discovered that no-one much likes him even seven years later apparently.

Tell me how · 26-10-2018 11:12pm

Rhineshark wrote:

And Gallagher discovered that no-one much likes him even seven years later apparently.

Likes him wayyyyyy less than 7 years ago.

OwlsZat · 26-10-2018 11:12pm

The government jet is being readied for a boozy celebration weekend in Belfast!

FrancieBrady · 26-10-2018 11:12pm

Rhineshark wrote: »

So Higgins started around 69% and ends up with 58% with the nearest contender at 20%. About expected bar Gallagher not being that second.

There was a strong element of piss-taking to the Casey ("for the craic") vote, Higgins was expected to have it in the bag, and the turnout was pretty low with only two candidates that anyone could muster a toss for. And Gallagher discovered that no-one much likes him even seven years later apparently.

More surprised at the Gallagher vote than the Casey one tbh.

Dia1988 · 26-10-2018 11:16pm

Silentcorner wrote: »

SF leadership went for a female specifically, that's where they went wrong, their candidate did not connect with voters at all, they should have gone with a much warmer personality regardless of gender, this missed an opportunity they created for themselves, it can't inspire confidence in leadership!

I'm actually really surprised Ni Riada isn't in double figures, she does great work in the EU for drawing down funds for Ireland and here No Bearla strike in the EU, that eventually had the Irish language recognised.

Her campaign seemed to focus on Northern Ireland even in the days up to the polling day which is a bit pointless as they can't vote. Look at her videos where mostly all of them include people from the North saying they'll vote for her BUT they can't! Bit pointless really canvassing up there, unless it's a Sinn Fein strategy.

Hurrache · 26-10-2018 11:18pm

Ronan|Raven wrote: »

What is astonishing about it? Shout populist ****e and watch people cling onto it?

I genuinely believe, and I've said this since he made those comments, is that what gave him the bounce (which I said would happen) wasn't the comments themselves, but the reaction to those comments in the media, print, TV, radio and social. People were being told they can't in any way agree with those sentiments, we as a country don't need someone like Casey coming here and saying this stuff.

It was a tone deaf knee jerk reaction, and I'm certain that the cack handed reaction will help someone hardcore right wing to now step into that void.

pixelburp · 26-10-2018 11:30pm

I'd agree with some of that; it also became incredibly tiresome how the narrative of debates got derailed by Caseys comments, and effectively got a pass on any questioning over his Irexit, NATO, IrishFacebook positions - alongside his tax status (while legal, was still disatisfying for a President to not pay any Irish tax). He managed to accidentally avoid scutiny, albeit by incurring questionably sincere wrath from the other candidates, which triggered those intent on projecting their own biases onto an ostensible spoofer.

Hopefully the next election will have a greater field of legitimate candidates, and not these stunt personas. Oh and maybe Gallagher again - he's now the New Dana

Hurrache · 26-10-2018 11:36pm

Jesus, if Gallagher ran again, especially if he does get well beaten by Casey, the bitterness would turn your milk sour through the TV right into your fridge.

Cork Boy 53 · 27-10-2018 12:08am

Hurrache wrote: »

Jesus, if Gallagher ran again, especially if he does get well beaten by Casey, the bitterness would turn your milk sour through the TV right into your fridge.

I imagine that Gallagher will now disappear into the same obscurity that he was in between 2011 and the start of this campaign.

seamus · 27-10-2018 12:13am

Even with the low turnout it looks like MDH is going to take the largest number of first preference votes for any politician in the history of the state.

A resounding endorsement of his presidency.

splashuum · 27-10-2018 12:15am

Is there a possibility MDH goes below 50% first preference votes tommorow ?

Cork Boy 53 · 27-10-2018 12:20am

splashuum wrote: »

Is there a possibility MDH goes below 50% first preference votes tommorow ?

Not if the exit poll is anywhere close to being accurate.

Rhineshark · 27-10-2018 12:22am

splashuum wrote: »

Is there a possibility MDH goes below 50% first preference votes tommorow ?

If the exit poll was 51-52%, maybe but it has him at 58% with a 3% margin of error, it's very unlikely it'd be out by that much.

Exit polls in person don't tend to have the same issues that opinion polling has had, bar maybe undersampling some regions. I reckon tomorrow's results will be pretty close if not bang on.

Sorry, there were two, I'd forgotten the IT one. Pretty close agreement.

splinter65 · 27-10-2018 12:29am

seamus wrote: »

Even with the low turnout it looks like MDH is going to take the largest number of first preference votes for any politician in the history of the state.

A resounding endorsement of his presidency.

Less then 2/3 of the 1/4 of possible voters who actually hauled their arses to the ballot box voted for an almost doting champagne socialist of the most stereotypical kind simply because the other 5 were too awful to even consider.
A resounding endorsement? Sure! I’ll have 2 of whatever your having !

L1011 · 27-10-2018 12:30am

splashuum wrote: »

Is there a possibility MDH goes below 50% first preference votes tommorow ?

Both polling firms would have to have ballsed up to a credibility damaging level for that to happen.

Realistically anything above 40% and he'd be uncatchable anyway; Casey probably won't get many transfers.

Sycamore Tree · 27-10-2018 12:30am

Sycamore Tree wrote: »

Peter Casey has started the inevitable transition to right wing government. I can see him gaining in the polls now and giving more confidence to those who want to set up a right wing party in Ireland.

You were dead right!

Dia1988 · 27-10-2018 12:31am

I'm actually really surprised Ni Riada isn't in double figures, she does great work in the EU for drawing down funds for Ireland and here No Bearla strike in the EU, that eventually had the Irish language recognised.

Her campaign seemed to focus on Northern Ireland even in the days up to the polling day which is a bit pointless as they can't vote. Look at her videos where mostly all of them include people from the North saying they'll vote for her BUT they can't! Bit pointless really canvassing up there, unless it's a Sinn Fein strategy.

kazamo · 27-10-2018 12:35am

seamus wrote: »

Even with the low turnout it looks like MDH is going to take the largest number of first preference votes for any politician in the history of the state.

A resounding endorsement of his presidency.

Or perhaps the low turnout reflects an indifference towards all candidates and the role itself.
If MDH gets 58% of a low turnout (less than 50% who actually voted) then less than a third of Irish people actually voted for him.Hardly a resounding endorsement.

An election that never needed to happen.

Rhineshark · 27-10-2018 12:40am

Irish Times (Ipsos/MRBI)/RTE (RedC)
Peter Casey – 21%/20.7%
Gavin Duffy – 2%/2%
Joan Freeman – 6%/6.3%
Sean Gallagher – 7%/5.5%
Michael D Higgins – 56%/58.1%
Liadh Ní Riada – 8%/7.4^

IT: Yes 69-31%, RTE Yes 71-29%

Almost feel bad for Duffy. But he decidedly became Third Dragon Whathisname after Casey had his moment. Gallagher was already known and had "legitimacy"- at least until he decided to miss the debate in protest and turned out no-one missed him. Duffy didn't have a chance in just being generally coherent and not actively dislikable once Casey got his name known.

Same went for Ni Riada. Freeman added her own oddities that might have put people off.

blanch152 · 27-10-2018 12:40am

seamus wrote: »

Even with the low turnout it looks like MDH is going to take the largest number of first preference votes for any politician in the history of the state.

A resounding endorsement of his presidency.

Interestingly, Brian Lenihan with 694,000 odd votes is the highest vote-getter to date, even though he didn't win the election.

Turnout was 64%.

blanch152 · 27-10-2018 12:42am

Dia1988 wrote: »

I'm actually really surprised Ni Riada isn't in double figures, she does great work in the EU for drawing down funds for Ireland and here No Bearla strike in the EU, that eventually had the Irish language recognised.

Her campaign seemed to focus on Northern Ireland even in the days up to the polling day which is a bit pointless as they can't vote. Look at her videos where mostly all of them include people from the North saying they'll vote for her BUT they can't! Bit pointless really canvassing up there, unless it's a Sinn Fein strategy.

She is not in single figures, she is down at 7-8%, which is where Sinn Fein's real core vote is at.

They were deserted by those who wanted to vote for a protest candidate in Casey (apart from one or two on here who bizarrely voted Higgins despite his repeated anti-republican statements).

So Michael D IS running again!

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