Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

Saturday, 24 November, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cloudy with sunny breaks developing especially in north and west, some further outbreaks of light rain in south (2-5 mm), rather cold in the breeze (east 30-50 km/hr), highs 8 to 11 C.

TONIGHT ... Some further clearing, cold. Ice and fog patches in central to north inland counties, lows 1 to 4 C south and coastal, -3 to +2 C central and north.

SUNDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sun, rather cold, east winds 40 to 60 km/hr. Highs 7 to 10 C.

MONDAY ... Sunny at first, then increasing cloud, some rain by late in day in southwest. Lows -2 to +3 C and highs 8 to 11 C. Moderate to strong southeast winds developing by afternoon west, evening further east.

TUESDAY ... Windy and milder with rain, heavy at times. 20-40 mm of rain is expected, winds southeast to south 50-80 km/hr rising to about 80 to 110 km/hr overnight into Wednesday morning. Temperatures slowly rising to about 10 or 11 C. Extensive fog likely on higher ground.

WEDNESDAY ... Very windy at times, rain tapering to showers then some variable cloud including sunny breaks, passing squally showers. South to southwest winds peaking at around 90-120 km/hr then may pick up again later in some coastal areas, but with a decreasing trend elsewhere. Temperatures peaking 12 to 14 C fairly early in the day, then steady around 10 C later.

OUTLOOK ... A brief dry interval will follow then another wind and rain event will sweep in near the end of the day Friday 30th into early Saturday 1st of December. The trend beyond that looks quite mild for several days (9 to 13 C), eventually giving way to considerably colder air masses from north and then east towards second week of December (4 to 7 C). No strong indications of snow in this scenario, a dry cold situation by the looks of current guidance.

My local weather on Friday was overcast with drizzle that was coating nearby hills with wet snow. Highs reached about 4 C. This rather weak weather system will drop southeast and begin to develop into a much stronger storm for the Midwest U.S. by Monday 26th. Chicago may see about 30 cms of snow from this storm. It has turned a bit milder after the recent cold wave, temperatures in the eastern states have risen to near 7 C. Light rain is falling across parts of the northeast, and it will stay somewhat milder until this Monday storm hits (Tuesday further east) with another surge of cold air following it.

Astronomy note: Full moon was on Friday at 0540h, "king tides" will continue for several more days towards the lunar perigee and its northern declination maximum mid-week. This means that any onshore strong winds Tuesday-Wednesday could produce at least minor storm surge conditions.

Monday, 26 November, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Partly cloudy, moderate southeast winds developing, rain by evening in parts of the southwest. Highs 8 to 11 C.

TONIGHT ... Windy and mild in the south and west with rain, winds southeast 50 to 70 km/hr, rainfalls 5 to 15 mm. Lows 7 to 9 C. Further north and east, increasing cloud, moderate southeast winds developing, lows 2 to 5 C.

TUESDAY ... Intervals of rain (10-20 mm with local amounts near 30 mm in south central counties), slight risk of thunderstorms embedded in the rainfall band for south Connacht and midlands, southeast winds shifting to southwesterly, and easing somewhat for a time as a brief dry slot moves through. Highs 9 to 12 C. Winds gusting to 80 km/hr around mid-day.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY are looking very unsettled with strong winds and squally showers or outbreaks of rain. As guidance stubbornly refuses to give much clarity on details, the situation is currently a watch rather than a specific alert. Some guidance shows strong southwest winds in many areas on Wednesday followed by a renewed bout of strong westerly winds Thursday night into early Friday. Another model advertises that the Wednesday event will be only moderate. Another source suggests that Thursday could bring very strong winds to the southeast. So we have a lot to monitor and very little certainty -- this is likely because the main actor in the disturbed period of weather is heading out from the subtropical Atlantic southeast of Bermuda and data sampling has been less than the amount that the models usually have to work on. We can be fairly confident that it will be unsettled if not downright stormy, and that it will turn very mild as the air will be streaming in from near the Azores on southwest winds, so temperatures could hit 14 C at some point, and will be generally above 10 C.

FRIDAY will continue quite breezy at least, with a brief interval of clearing possible before another front arrives late at night or on Saturday. Highs will be about 10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Unsettled for several days, but also some mild, dry spells likely in early December, in a pattern that does not look like it will turn very cold for at least the first half of December.

Stay tuned on the Wednesday-Thursday situation, I may issue an update if I see better agreement among the main weather models later today.

My local weather stayed quite mild again, and dry, which is a pleasant bonus at this time of year here. The high was about 8 C. Rain is about to sweep in with heavy wet snow in the mountain ranges around us.

The Midwest snowstorm turned quite fierce west of Chicago on Sunday with numerous roads closed and power reported out, the situation in Chicago ranges from heavy wet snow in some inland suburbs to a rain-snow mix on the lakefront. That mix is now heading east into southern Michigan and parts of Indiana and Ohio, but it will turn more to snow later today.

Tuesday, 27 November, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Heavy rainfall alert in place, 20 to 40 mm in many areas this morning, tapering off around mid-day except in north Leinster and east Ulster where it could continue to the afternoon. With this band of heavy rain, some embedded squally thunderstorms are possible and there could be very localized wind damage or hail reported, most likely in central Munster to south Connacht. After the band of rain moves through, some clearing may develop and winds will ease from southerly gales of 50 to 80 km/hr with some local gusts to 110 km/hr, to about 30 to 50 km/hr from the southwest this afternoon and evening. Intermittent light rain will return from the southwest by evening. It will be quite mild with highs near 10 C in north Leinster and east Ulster, to 14 C in parts of west Munster.

TONIGHT into WEDNESDAY ... Storm "Diana" will move quickly past Ireland in two waves, the first one later tonight and Wednesday morning, and a second wave around mid-day. Winds will increase again to southerly 80 to 120 km/hr in exposed locations, veering slowly to southwest and easing slightly by afternoon or evening. Severe and damaging gusts are possible, especially around coastal Connacht, and possibly some other coastal areas. Overnight lows only falling to about 10 C, then highs around 12 or 13 C during the morning, with temperatures falling slowly by late afternoon, winds then steady and moderate southwest 50 to 80 km/hr. About 10 mm of rain on average but potential for 20 mm in some parts of the southeast as a secondary wave forms to the west of Cornwall and moves through in the evening.

THURSDAY ... Windy with passing squally showers, winds southwest to west 60 to 100 km/hr, lows near 6 C and highs near 10 C.

FRIDAY ... Windy at times, further showers, lows near 5 C and highs near 9 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Overcast, mild, rain at times, moderate southwest winds could become strong again on Sunday. Highs near 10 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Unsettled, mild, possible stormy intervals to follow within a week to ten days.

My local weather on Monday was cloudy with occasional rain mixing with melting snowflakes at times, highs near 3 C. Further rain-snow mix is expected here on Tuesday.

Watch for updates if storm "Diana" makes any more threatening moves than what you see in this forecast -- there is still some spread in the guidance on this storm which is currently just northwest of the Azores around 42N 36W.

Wednesday, 28 November, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Very windy along the south coast this morning, with some severe gusts possible, southerly winds 80 to 120 km/hr. Strong gusts will spread inland where terrain permits, but east coast may remain more moderate until mid-day. West coast likely to see moderate south to southwest winds veering to westerly and increasing to 70 to 100 km/hr. Galway Bay may experience higher gusts and some coastal flooding, but coastal flooding more widespread on south coast especially around times of high tides. Rain will increase gradually becoming more persistent mid-day and afternoon. About 10 to 15 mm rain for most places. Strong westerly winds will then sweep through central counties to reach the east coast (westerly 60 to 90 km/hr with some higher gusts). Very mild especially before the wind shifts to westerly, 13 to 15 C.

TONIGHT ... Some further rain likely, moderate southwest winds continuing and a spell of heavier rain likely in the southeast towards Thursday morning. Lows 5 to 8 C.

THURSDAY ... Windy and not quite as mild, scattered showers with some hail and thunder, winds southwest to west 60 to 100 km/hr. Highs about 10 C.

FRIDAY ... Rather windy especially in northern counties, passing showers, lows 3 to 6 C and highs 8 to 10 C.

SATURDAY ... Intervals of rain, mild in south (10 to 12 C), foggy and damp further north, 7 to 9 C. Moderate southwest winds near south coast, light east winds more likely further north.

SUNDAY ... Rain at times, mild, highs near 11 C.

OUTLOOK ... Several more days of mild temperatures and moderate winds with occasional rain as frontal systems continue to parade in from the Atlantic. The pattern looks set to change somewhat to colder near the middle of December.

My local weather on Tuesday was mild with rain (also) and the high was 6 C.

Friday, 30 November, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, passing showers, some rather heavy with hail and thunder, breezy to windy at times (WSW 40 to 70 km/hr, and gusts to near 100 km/hr in exposed coastal areas of west and north). Highs 8 to 10 C. Somewhat less windy by afternoon and evening.

TONIGHT ... Clearing in parts of inland north may allow a slight frost to develop, lows -1 to +3 C, overcast further south with rain developing by morning, lows 3 to 6 C.

SATURDAY ... Outbreaks of rain from early morning to mid-day, more persistent in south, then brief clearing, followed by more rain by the evening hours, this time heavier in central counties. Overall about 10-15 mm rainfalls are expected. with highs 7 to 11 C. Winds near the south coast may become moderate southwesterly as low pressure passes, 50 to 80 km/hr, veering westerly and easing. Further north, winds will be light to moderate easterly for a time, then variable.

SUNDAY ... Rain at times, lows near 5 C and highs near 10 C. Moderate southwest winds 50 to 80 km/hr. About 10 to 20 mm of rain possible.

MONDAY ... Showers, highs near 8 C. About 5 to 10 mm rain likely.

TUESDAY ... Heavy rain is possible across the south, 20 to 40 mm amounts may occur, and this on top of about 50 mm over the previous few days may lead to some flooding. This low may track far enough south to leave some parts of Ulster and north Connacht dry, but with some risk of wet snow on hills near the northern fringes of the rainfall in central Connacht. Highs near 10 C on the south coast, but only 3 to 6 C further north.

WEDNESDAY ... Some sunshine briefly as a weak ridge of high pressure drifts east between low pressure systems, highs 5 to 8 C.

THURSDAY to SUNDAY appears very unsettled with strong westerly winds at times, more outbreaks of rain with 30 to 50 mm potential, and highs 8 to 11 C (but prone to turning much colder at times in Ulster). Some intervals of colder northwest winds during this period may bring local snow on hills in the north.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Somewhat colder by mid-month, likely to remain windy and unsettled with more chances for wintry mixtures of precipitation as the middle of December approaches.

My local weather on Thursday was overcast with a little rain at times and mild, highs near 7 C.

Sunday, 2 December, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... A few brighter intervals at first, very mild in the south, turning milder in the north rather gradually, with rain becoming more persistent by afternoon, 10 to 20 mm possible. Highs near 10 or 11 C except 12 to 14 C inland south. Moderate southwest winds 50 to 80 km/hr at least near some coasts.

TONIGHT ... Another interval of rain likely with some heavy falls possible in the south (20 mm). Mild, lows 6 to 8 C.

MONDAY ... Rain ending with showers becoming widely scattered then clearing, highs 8 to 10 C. Clearing and cold by evening.

MONDAY NIGHT ... Clear and cold with widespread sharp frost likely, lows -4 to +2 C.

TUESDAY ... After frost slowly clears from some northeastern counties, cloud will spread in then heavy rain will be likely across the south by afternoon and evening, 20 to 40 mm amounts may occur, and this combined with some earlier rainfalls may lead to some flooding. This low may track far enough south to leave some parts of Ulster and north Connacht dry until mid-day, but with some risk of wet snow on hills near the northern fringes of the rainfall in central and northern Connacht then later into Ulster. Rain will eventually spread to most northern areas later in the day and overnight into Wednesday morning, and 10 to 20 mm can be expected there. Morning lows -4 to +2 C, then highs near 10 C on the south coast, but only 3 to 6 C further north, and about 8 C from Galway across to Dublin.

WEDNESDAY ... Some sunshine briefly as a weak ridge of high pressure drifts east between low pressure systems, lows 1 to 3 C and highs 5 to 8 C. A sharp frost may once again develop by evening in advance of the next system's cloud spreading in after midnight.

THURSDAY ... Early frost clearing rapidly in early morning hours, becoming windy with rain at times, highs 9 to 12 C, winds southwest 60 to 100 km/hr. About 20 to 30 mm rain possible.

FRIDAY ... Windy with passing showers, some sunny intervals, feeling cold in strong west to northwest winds 70 to 110 km/hr (possibly stronger in Ulster). Lows near 4 C and highs near 8 C.

SATURDAY ... Winds easing gradually, some sunny intervals, cold. Lows -1 to +2 C and highs 6 to 9 C.

SUNDAY ... Breezy and milder again with some rain likely, highs near 10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Eventually a dry spell with near normal temperatures for mid-December can be expected in the second week of the month, and it could turn colder during that time.

My local weather was dry with some glimpses of sunshine through extensive higher cloud layers, and highs near 5 C.

Tuesday, 4 December, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Sunny intervals, then increasing cloud. The chilly start will linger in east and north most of the day, while it gets more rapidly milder in the south and west. After thicker cloud arrives, rain will start by mid-afternoon in the south and parts of the west, however it will only become moderately heavy tonight. Winds will increase in the south to south-southwest 40 to 60 km/hr, while remaining fairly light in most other places until after dark. Highs by late afternoon 8 to 10 C south and west, 6 C east and north.

TONIGHT ... Breezy with 10-15 mm of rain in many places, some mixing with sleet or wet snow on higher terrain in the north well inland from coasts (mostly above 300 metres elevation). Turning quite mild in the south and about as far north as Galway to Dublin eventually, with temperatures reaching 11 or 12 C overnight before falling back slightly by morning. The trend further north, while similar, will only reach about 7 or 8 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Rain clearing east, then variable cloud, rather mild, moderate westerly winds backing to southwest by afternoon, highs about 10 C.

THURSDAY ... Mild with occasional rain, mostly rather light and drizzly, and moderate southwest winds 50 to 70 km/hr, morning lows 6 to 8 C and afternoon highs 11 to 13 C. Becoming very windy overnight, winds west-southwest 80 to 120 km/hr, squally showers, temperatures slowly falling to about 7 C.

FRIDAY ... During the early morning hours, very windy with squally showers, winds west-southwest 80 to 120 km/hr. During the day, partly to mostly cloudy, passing squally showers with hail, longer dry intervals near east and south coast, frequent rain likely in west and north, and very windy all day (veering to west-northwest 80 to 120 km/hr). Northwest coastal regions will get the strongest gusts. Temperatures on Friday will fall slowly to about 6 C then remain steady.

SATURDAY ... Continued rather windy, variable cloud for most of the day with another interval of rain developing by late afternoon and evening, winds westerly 50 to 80 km/hr, lows near 3 C and highs near 8 C.

SUNDAY ... Windy, clearing slowly, although some residual showers near north coast, cold. Winds north-northwest 50 to 80 km/hr. Lows near 4 C and highs near 7 C.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... High pressure will build over Ireland and transfer most of its central pressure into Scotland linking to high pressure in Sweden. This will gradually set up an easterly spell of winds and it will become quite cold, daytime highs 4 to 7 C and overnight lows about -3 to -1 C. There should be some sunshine at least with this early part of the cold spell.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Easterly winds will continue, sleety light precipitation will appear near east coast at times by mid-week, and this could turn to snow inland over higher ground and possibly even over most elevations, although amounts appear likely to be small. Highs will remain quite cold in the 3 to 6 C range, lows -4 to +1 C (the milder nights due to east winds off the still rather warm Irish Sea).

This spell may moderate to something more average although still rather dry, and the research that I've done indicates that any settled periods lasting to about the 20th would likely be followed by stormy intervals 21st to 23rd, details on that a long way off but could involve a brief return to mild, wet weather and another round of strong northwest winds similar to this coming Friday, so that would be my best guess for the sort of weather pattern that might greet a certain S. Claus of the North Pole on the 24th. We shall see about that.

My local weather on Monday was overcast and cold, high pressure is building up over the interior valleys of B.C. and this often promotes an inversion and low cloud ceilings. It might be sunny in the alpine regions but you have to get there to find out. There was the odd snowflake drifting around in the breeze (local lakes are all open, ice does not form on them except in very cold winters), and it was about 2 or 3 degrees for a high.

Thursday, 6 December, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Misty and mild with occasional rain, rather foggy in higher elevations, about 10 to 20 mm rain expected. Highs 11 to 14 C. Moderate southwest winds 50 to 80 km/hr near exposed coasts, 40 to 60 km/hr inland.

TONIGHT ... Becoming very windy towards midnight, especially near west coast and extending into Ulster and north midlands overnight. Winds southwest 80 to 120 km/hr, veering more westerly towards morning. Some severe and damaging gusts are likely near Donegal Bay. Squally showers will continue, and temperatures will be falling slowly from near 12 C at first to 7 C by morning.

FRIDAY ... Very windy in northern counties, westerly 80 to 120 km/hr, continued risk of damaging gusts. Squally showers with hail and thunder possible. Somewhat less extreme further south but certainly a windy day with passing showers, winds westerly 60 to 100 km/hr. Temperatures steady in the 8 to 10 C range.

SATURDAY ... Windy with occasional rain, temperatures steady near 9 C. Winds westerly 50 to 80 km/hr, some higher gusts in north, and about 10 mm of rain likely. Turning colder overnight into Sunday morning, winds northwest 60 to 100 km/hr, lows near 4 C.

SUNDAY ... Windy and cold with passing showers, some sunny intervals, and highs only 5 to 7 C. Winds north-northwest 50 to 80 km/hr.

MONDAY ... After a slight frost, some sunshine and cold, lows -2 to +2 C and highs near 6 C.

OUTLOOK ... Guidance has recently changed rather abruptly -- the high that was supposed to hang around to the north and produce east winds is being shown under various degrees of attack from the Atlantic which spins off a number of strong disturbances next week, according to most of the models. There could be some strong westerly winds again if this new solution holds, but I suspect it may be an episode of what we call "model chaos" or the classic flip-flop where the former solution comes back into view if you wait a day or two. It may be a result of a difficult to forecast low crossing the southern U.S. this weekend and reaching the western Atlantic on Monday, now looking more energetic than previously thought. So in other words, we can't be too sure what to trust in these model offerings, but it is no longer all that likely to stay dry or settled. As to the cold part of the previous outlook, that may generally hold, because while the Atlantic seems capable of pushing back in, it may not be bringing very mild air along, but working instead with the cold air that is left behind by Sunday's cold outbreak and more cold air flooding south from Greenland into the north central Atlantic. What all this means is that there could be some very nasty weather systems developing mid to late week (around Thursday 13th) and from then to about the 21st frequent wind, sometimes gale force, and rain with some risk of snow in the mix. So don't be lulled into a false sense of security by today's rather benign mild conditions.

My local weather on Wednesday was sunny with some cloud returning by late afternoon, and cold, highs near 2 C. The storm I mentioned crossing the southern U.S. is slowly moving into southern California and Arizona tonight, and will be in Texas by the weekend, bringing a risk of freezing rain and heavy snow to parts of the interior southeastern states by Sunday night and Monday. Washington D.C. seems to be near the northern edge of the likely snowfall zone, so it should largely miss the northeast U.S., and move out into the western Atlantic. We'll be keeping a close eye on this storm which might arrive in Ireland around Thursday of next week.

Saturday, 8 December, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Continued windy with outbreaks of rain becoming heavier again towards late afternoon. Winds southwest 50 to 80 km/hr with some local gusts to 100 km/hr near coasts. Highs of 9 to 12 C, mildest in south and southeast. About 5-10 mm of rain for most.

SATURDAY NIGHT ... Windy, rain becoming showery, winds veering to northwest 50 to 80 km/hr, some stronger gusts in west and north. Lows about 3 C. A further 5 mm of rain in most places.

SUNDAY ... Continued rather windy and colder again with northwest winds 40 to 70 km/hr, passing showers and some sunny breaks, highs about 7 C. Winds easing towards late afternoon and backing to west then southwest overnight.

MONDAY ... Some clear intervals in the early morning, slight frosts but clouding over from west by morning, then cloudy with brief sunny breaks (more likely in east), drizzle or light rain developing from west, lows 1 to 4 C and highs 7 to 10 C.

TUESDAY ... Light rain or drizzle, moderate southwest winds, a little milder, lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY will bring strong southwest to west winds at times, rain and temperatures in the 6 to 10 C range. Although that may sound mild, in these strong winds it may feel quite cold generally. There could be one glancing blow from a stronger Atlantic storm in this period, affecting mostly the northwestern counties with gusts to 120 km/hr. It appears somewhat more moderate for the south and east. Some slight frosts could develop at night in any breaks in overcast, as the jet stream will be dropping a bit further south and taking the milder air masses down towards the Biscay region.

OUTLOOK ... There are very interesting maps to ponder by next weekend and into the following week. At that time scale, we can't be too confident any of them will materialize, but in one case I am actually hoping the map is wrong because it would produce a storm to rival "Darwin" in Feb 2014 and we remember how much damage and disruption that brought. The map in question is the current day 9 output from the leading European model (meaning Sunday into early Monday of next weekend). Much less threatening lows are shown on other guidance but in roughly the same place (off the west coast of Ireland). Another set of maps that catches your attention shows up near the end of the 16-day GFS model run, where we find strong northwest winds followed by a very cold arctic outbreak just in time for Christmas. This is actually just about what my long-range forecast was suggesting might happen, so in this case I hope it does happen but at the same time if it doesn't, there's the compensation that travel in Ireland and the U.K. won't be disrupted by snow in some places (which would be likely if the maps are accurate). So be aware, maps at this time scale are speculative at best and their main usefulness is to alert us to potential weather types that could occur around then, I tend to use this rule -- a four day forecast map is likely to verify somewhere close to its target within 12 hours, an eight day forecast map could verify somewhere within a few hundred miles within a day or two of its intended timing, and a sixteen day map could verify once or twice a season somewhere on earth. Well it's not quite that bad, but a fairly good rule to keep in mind.

My local weather remains very cold, it cleared up again during the day to reveal stunning views of snow-covered mountains (snow up there is a rather thin 5-10 cm covering) and the high was only -3 C. It is currently clear and -10 C. Heavy rain is spreading east from Texas and turning to sleet in parts of Arkansas now, the first stage of what may turn out to be an unusual heavy snowfall event for places like Richmond VA and Raleigh-Durham NC. This still appears likely to cut off just south of the Washington D.C. region and miss NYC and Boston. Remnants of this low may bring the strong winds to Ireland around next Thursday or so (not the storm for the following weekend, that won't even be born until a week from now, if it happens that way).

Monday, 10 December, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, spotty light rain near west coast later in the day, not as windy and while rather cold at first, milder again by afternoon and evening. Highs 8 to 11 C.

TONIGHT ... Overcast, occasional light rain, mostly confined to west, lows 6 to 8 C.

TUESDAY ... Overcast, rather foggy in higher elevations, drizzle or light rain becoming sleety on some higher slopes, highs 7 to 9 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy with occasional rain, stronger southeast winds developing to 50-80 km/hr, lows 3 to 6 C and highs 7 to 9 C, except about 11 C in west Munster. About 10-15 mm rainfalls expected.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, colder especially in Leinster and Ulster as east winds briefly push into those regions, highs only 5 to 8 C. Partly to mostly cloudy, some outbreaks of rain in south and west, staying milder near 10 C.

FRIDAY ... Windy and rather mild with rain at times, highs near 11 C. South to southwest winds 70-110 km/hr possible.

OUTLOOK ... Very windy next weekend, details may change closer to the time but winds could gust to 120 km/hr during Saturday and then Sunday would likely remain windy, temperatures near 10 C. Following that, another very strong Atlantic storm is expected to develop in the central regions of the ocean and make some progress east, while engaging with the colder air lurking to the north. This sets up various outcomes on different guidance in the days leading up to Christmas, but the theme is generally one of strong winds, slowly falling temperatures and increasing chances for snow in the mix. We can deal with the details when the models are in better agreement. The coldest period appears to be well-timed for 24th-26th of December, but while that may set a festive mood, it may also be a problem for people with travel plans. Eastern England could be harder hit by any wintry weather in this scenario so if you're travelling through London that might become an issue too.

My local weather remained dry although a lot of low cloud formed on Sunday and it turned just a bit milder, reaching +1 C. Snow is likely to start falling here later today but heavier amounts are due mid-week (the ground is still bare although slightly frozen in our valley here, the snow line remains stuck at 200 metres above us -- it's a fifteen minute drive to get into 10-15 cm snow depths and ski trails that are up about 1,000 metres above sea level). The east coast storm delivered what was promised and more, Richmond VA had 29 cms of snow, and the two Washington airports had nothing. The snow apparently cut off a few miles south of DCA, and now most of this storm is over the Atlantic. Two more will form in a chain along its frontal boundary and those will each come a bit closer to Ireland later in the week, this first one is headed more towards western Iceland.

Wednesday, 12 December, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Overcast most of the day in both eastern and southwestern counties, as one outbreak of drizzly light rain drifts away from the east coast, another heavier band of rain will slowly move into the southwest by afternoon and evening. Most other locations will start out foggy or misty and quite cold with isolated frost clearing followed by partly to mostly cloudy skies. Highs 7 to 10 C. Winds light to moderate southeast will pick up steadily this afternoon reaching 40-60 km/hr in parts of west Munster.

TONIGHT ... Rain will continue to edge further east, 10-15 mm likely by morning, with brisk southeast winds spreading further east as well, picking up to 50-70 km/hr. Lows 5 to 7 C.

THURSDAY ... Outbreaks of rain continuing, a further 10-20 mm possible in parts of south central counties and Connacht. Strong southeast winds easing gradually, peaking at about 60-80 km/hr mid-day. Highs 8 to 11 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud followed by overcast skies with rain, strong southerly winds by the overnight hours. Lows 2 to 5 C and highs near 10 C.

SATURDAY ... Rather windy with outbreaks of heavy rain, highs near 10 C. Winds south to southwest 50 to 80 km/hr, higher gusts possible.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, passing showers, some with hail, moderate southwest winds. Highs near 8 C.

OUTLOOK ... Most of next week will be breezy to windy at times, overcast with a few breaks, and showery with some intervals of steady rain. It may become very windy by about Thursday or Friday (21st). Highs throughout will be 8 to 10 C. It may turn somewhat colder in northerly winds around the weekend of 22nd-23rd and the Christmas holiday weather at this point looks rather cold too with intervals of rain or sleet, some risk of snow, and winds between westerly and northwesterly in passing frontal systems. During this colder turn, parts of eastern England may pick up some heavier snowfalls but Ireland may be subject to a few isolated light falls. Highs around 4 to 7 C in the holiday period, with some chance of a colder outcome.

My local weather on Tuesday was windy and overcast with fog, wet snow and some rain at times, temperatures steady near 1 degree C.

Friday, 14 December, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, generally dry but with a few patchy outbreaks of drizzle, rain developing later in south and west, as winds begin to pick up to southeast 40-70 km/hr. Rather mild with highs 10 to 13 C.

TONIGHT ... Heavy rain and strong southeast winds will spread into south coast counties, overcast with light to moderate rain further north, lows 7 to 9 C. Winds southeast 50 to 80 km/hr in exposed south coastal areas, less windy elsewhere. 20-30 mm rainfalls by morning in parts of the south and southeast.

SATURDAY ... Heavy rain will spread north from south central counties into midlands, parts of Connacht and Ulster, as well as most of Leinster. Amounts 20-30 mm. Some western counties will receive about 10-20 mm. Strong south winds 60 to 100 km/hr will continue east of the track of low pressure in parts of the southeast and east. Eventually a strong west to northwest wind will develop near the west coast by afternoon and this will sweep through central counties to the east coast by evening, with gusts to 90 km/hr. A few exposed coastal areas of the northwest may see gusts to 110 km/hr. Temperatures will be steady around 8 to 10 C for most places, 10 to 13 C in the southeast.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, isolated showers, some with hail or thunder, but also some sunny breaks, cooler with moderate southwest winds at 40 to 70 km/hr. Lows 2 to 5 C and highs 8 to 10 C.

MONDAY ... Overcast, becoming very windy with heavy rain developing by afternoon and evening. Winds southerly 70-110 km/hr and rainfalls of 20-30 mm. Temperatures steady 10 or 11 C.

TUESDAY ... Rain continuing heavy at times in the east for part of the morning, with gradual clearing further west, not as windy, and slightly cooler, temperatures near 7 C.

OUTLOOK ... Rather bland weather is expected later in the week for several days which may be welcome as people begin to travel and shop more frequently in advance of the holidays. Temperatures about 8 C in that period. By the weekend (of 22nd-23rd) it may begin to turn somewhat colder in stages, with some guidance suggesting quite cold weather arriving just in time for Christmas Eve. The most likely temperatures for the 24th and 25th from a blend of all guidance would be 4 to 7 C but it could be colder than that and there is some risk of snow or sleet in some of the forecast model guidance.

My local weather on Thursday was windy and mild, as southerly winds broke into our valley with some fairly strong gusts at times. There was intermittent rain at lower elevations and snow higher up. The high was about 5 C. We are expecting more windy and unsettled weather today and into the weekend with falling temperatures by Friday night.

Saturday, 15 December, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Alerts are issued for strong winds and heavy rainfalls (storm Deirdre) ... most locations will see 30-50 mm rainfalls with some thunderstorm potential, most likely for the inland south. Local flooding is likely to develop, poor driving conditions may be encountered due to surface water on some major routes and hydroplaning and road spray hazards. Strong winds will first affect mostly the eastern counties as strong southeast winds 70-110 km/hr continue, with some strong gusts near east coast. These winds will slowly abate for a time after mid-day as the low pressure trough approaches. Rather variable and sometimes light winds at first in western counties will rapidly increase this afternoon to west-northwest 80-120 km/hr for several hours. These very strong winds will move along the south coast from Cork (around 3 p.m.) to Wexford (by 5 p.m.) and will then rapidly overspread all other counties further north once the low reaches the Irish Sea by evening. Highs will reach 13 C in parts of the south and southeast, 8 to 10 C most other places.

(added 0800h) _ Stay close to forecast sources if you live in the south or southeast, as some guidance is now showing a more intense outcome that might bring severely damaging gusts of 140 km/hr to coastal counties and some parts of inland southeast, in particular from Cork to Wexford. As this storm is just beginning to develop, it may be 1100h before we can nail down these details; just a heads up that "code red" wind warnings are possible if certain guidance is correct. These winds might develop around 1 to 5 p.m. (in any case it will almost certainly be a code orange wind situation which is severe enough).

TONIGHT ... Very windy at first, then moderating westerly winds later, with further rain or drizzle but some clear intervals developing. Lows will reach 5 to 7 C.

SUNDAY ... Breezy, variable cloud with passing showers, some producing hail and thunder. Winds southwest 40 to 70 km/hr. Rather cold with highs 7 to 9 C.

MONDAY ... Cloudy but dry at first, then becoming very windy with outbreaks of heavy rain, winds southerly 70-110 km/hr, highs near 11 C. About 20-30 mm rainfalls are expected by early Tuesday.

TUESDAY ... Rain continuing in the overnight early morning hours and for part of the daytime hours in eastern counties, then tapering to showers with partial clearing spreading from west, lows near 7 C and highs near 10 C. Moderate southwest winds 40-70 km/hr.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, breezy, rain developing later. Highs near 9 C.

THURSDAY ... Rain at times, high near 10 C.

FRIDAY ... Rain likely, highs near 8 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Showers at times next weekend (22nd-23rd), slowly turning colder, followed by some dry but frosty intervals around Christmas Eve into Christmas Day with isolated snow or hail showers possible. Temperatures will slide down during this period to -2 C overnight and 5 C daytime. Beyond that, some indications of rapid changes with some rain in the mix but another colder interval to follow.

My local weather on Friday was partly cloudy and mild with gusty winds at times, highs near 6 C. We are expecting some wet snow or sleet overnight and somewhat colder again for the weekend. It is rather chilly in most eastern regions trending to quite mild in the southeast, with a cold rain falling and changing to sleet over some hills, but this system will not produce much snow anywhere before heading out into the Atlantic and then north towards Greenland.

Monday, 17 December, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Mostly cloudy after a few brighter intervals this morning in eastern counties. Southerly winds will begin to increase around mid-day and rain will gradually spread into western counties, becoming heavier by evening. Highs 8 to 11 C.

TONIGHT ... Windy with intervals of heavy rain. Southerly winds 80 to 110 km/hr likely, some higher gusts possible near southwest coasts. Rainfalls 20-30 mm will create some spot flooding by morning. Lows 7 to 9 C.

TUESDAY ... Rain ending by late morning in east, as partial clearing spreads in from western counties, to be followed by further outbreaks of showery rain, some with hail and thunder, in moderate westerly winds. Somewhat colder with temperatures steady 7 to 9 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Rain or showers, moderate to strong southwest winds redeveloping, 50 to 80 km/hr. Lows 2 to 5 C and highs 8 to 10 C.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, lows 1 to 4 C and highs 7 to 9 C.

FRIDAY ... Intervals of rain, gusty southwest to west winds mainly near south coast, lows near 5 C and highs near 10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Some further rain on the weekend with near normal temperatures 8 to 10 C, then turning somewhat colder with perhaps a few dry days with some sunshine and isolated wintry showers possible for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, gradually turning milder again by the 26th with rain likely by the 27th. The colder spell is not looking very extreme at this point but nights may be somewhat frosty with highs reaching about 7 C.

My local weather on Sunday produced a sleety mix of wet snow and rain, no accumulations of snow and probably less than 10 mm of rain. The high was about 3 C.

Wednesday, 19 December, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Some morning sunny intervals in east, as showers develop in west, then longer intervals of rain or heavier showers, moderate to strong southwest winds redeveloping, 50 to 80 km/hr. Lows 2 to 5 C and highs 8 to 10 C. An interval of stronger winds may develop by evening, westerly 70 to 110 km/hr, at least in exposed west and north coastal areas, probably also near the south coast. This likely won't reach the intensity of either of the recent events, but could produce some alerts. High tides will be prone to minor coastal flooding (full moon approaching, 22nd). Expect about 10 mm of rain in most places, 5 mm in drier parts of the southeast sheltered by higher terrain.

TONIGHT ... Rather windy, occasional showers, partial clearing later, lows 1 to 4 C. Winds westerly 50 to 80 km/hr in exposed coastal areas at least up to midnight or a little later, then gradually easing.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, lows 1 to 4 C and highs 7 to 9 C. Occasionally breezy, westerly 50 to 80 km/hr, in some exposed coastal areas.

FRIDAY ... Intervals of rain, gusty southwest to west winds mainly near south coast, lows near 5 C and highs near 10 C. Some localized heavier rainfalls with complex frontal wave pattern, most likely near south coast in morning, then redeveloping further north by evening.

SATURDAY ... Breezy to windy, showers or occasional light rain, lows near 5 C and highs near 10 C. Some strong gusts possible near south coast, and possibility of a sharp frontal boundary developing east-west through central Ireland, highs only 4 to 7 C north of that. Likely not quite cold enough for snow or sleet to develop except possibly on a few high summits in the north.

SUNDAY ... Showers, highs near 9 C. Moderate southwest to west winds. Turning somewhat colder by evening.

MONDAY (Christmas Eve) ... Breezy (northwest 40 to 60 km/hr) and a little colder with sunny intervals, only isolated showers expected and some places enjoying a dry day, highs near 7 C.

TUESDAY (Christmas Day) ... Some spread in the guidance continues, but in general, a dry day expected, could remain rather cold for the morning hours with frosts likely, then may start to turn a little milder through the afternoon, highs somewhere in the 7 to 10 C range.

OUTLOOK ... There are now signs that high pressure will build up over the region after Christmas Day and remain close to Ireland although with a tendency to reform further west. This is going to lead to some dry, perhaps mild at least near coasts, but nearly calm weather in contrast to what has become frequent this month. In that scenario, some places can develop fog or low cloud and stay rather cold for the entire day, and there can be some frosts. This may be how the colder weather expected in January begins to develop, from this "inversion" cold (if that develops under a cap of milder air aloft).

My local weather on Tuesday was damp and cool but not cold enough at 3 deg C for snow, just light rain mixing with sleet at times. There was a freak and damaging tornado reported down near Seattle WA in Port Orchard, and it appeared to be at least an EF-2. I have to say that probably nobody in the weather "business" was remotely expecting it, the dynamics were a bit on the sedate side of what is usually associated with a tornado, and that's not really a very likely location either. It could have been a waterspout transforming into a brief tornado, not sure if the cell was over water before unleashing. It was also a very low cloud base and cloud top situation for a tornado, but video and damage left behind pretty much remove any doubt. Houses were deroofed and if not demolished then certainly left in a state of considerable disrepair and large trees were brought down. No trace of that activity moved inland, if anything it has been calm here for most of the evening. But it goes to show that any remotely conducive weather situation can create a freak damaging wind, this disturbance was only about half as intense on the charts as any one of the past four storms to hit Ireland.

Friday, 21 December, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Rather windy near the south coast, winds southwest 50 to 80 km/hr, but these winds should ease later. Some scattered outbreaks of light rain but fairly dry overall this morning, then somewhat more widespread light rain in central regions by afternoon, only 3 to 7 mm further rainfall expected at most. Highs 8 to 12 C.

TONIGHT ... Foggy with some light rain, lows 3 to 6 C.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, some isolated showers or patchy light rain, highs 8 to 10 C, except 6 to 8 C in some parts of the north. Breezy at times, southwest to west 40 to 70 km/hr.

SUNDAY ... Rain becoming widespread and rather heavy at times, 10 to 15 mm likely in some southern and central counties, not as much further north. Lows near 7 C and highs near 10 C. Moderate southwest to west winds turning more northwesterly during the afternoon.

MONDAY ... Some partial clearing, turning a bit colder in north, also a few leftover showers will drift slowly north while dying out entirely by about early afternoon, hazy sunshine in some places by afternoon. Lows 2 to 5 C and highs 8 to 10 C.

TUESDAY (Christmas Day) ... Hazy or foggy during the morning, rather cold inland, lows -1 to +4 C. Increasing cloud during the day, some lingering fog or mist, but also some sunny breaks in east. Rain will approach the west coast, but it may not move very far inland, as winds remain moderate southerly during the afternoon near west coast. Highs 7 to 11 C (mildest near south and west coasts).

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY 26th-27th will remain similar with high pressure to the east having some influence in Leinster and east Munster, keeping rain largely out in the western counties (or near the west coast at times), so a chance of it staying relatively dry in a good portion of the country, with light rain in the west about 70% likely, but amounts not very large. Winds southerly for most of this interval, 40 to 60 km/hr at times. Lows 2 to 6 C and highs 8 to 12 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The models keep churning out similar looking days with weak frontal systems, and no real return to the vigorous stormy pattern of last week, but some signs would suggest caution in going too far down the road as a pattern change could begin to develop in early January. Eventually it seems likely to turn significantly colder, but timing is uncertain, will say 10-15 January perhaps the most likely time for this change to set in (could be earlier or later by equal chances).

My local weather on Thursday was very windy from the south at times with rain that ended by mid-afternoon. We are expecting a return blast from the north later tonight as a cold front is moving through now, after highs near 4 C. This proved to be an intense winter storm system which produced wind damage around the Vancouver region with some gusts over 120 km/hr. It is rapidly weakening as it moves inland, meanwhile, lots of rain in eastern portions of the U.S. from a strong low moving north out of Georgia. This will continue all day Friday in most of the large cities on the eastern seaboard and up into the eastern Great Lakes region also.

Notes: The winter solstice occurs today at 22:24 hours (10:24 p.m.) and the full moon is timed for Saturday at 17:50 hours (5:50 p.m.).

Saturday, 22 December, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Partly cloudy this morning, a few brief showers widely separated, then more overcast by afternoon, highs 7 to 11 C, coolest in north central counties. Moderate southwest breezes at times near south and west coasts.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, becoming foggy after midnight, some light to moderate rain moving into western counties. Lows 5 to 8 C.

SUNDAY ... Overcast, foggy or misty, 10 to 20 mm rainfalls likely, some moderate southwest winds in the morning veering more to northwest by afternoon and evening. Highs 8 to 11 C.

MONDAY ... Variable cloud with some sunshine, more likely in north Leinster and Ulster, as leftover light rain tapers to drizzle before ending as mist or fog in some south central counties. Light winds, some northeast breezes at times in Ulster. Rather chilly in north, staying rather mild in the south. Lows -1 to +4 C, highs 6 to 10 C.

TUESDAY (Christmas Day) ... Fog or mist rather widespread in the morning, a few areas may be rather cold where skies remain clear, but lows will vary from near freezing to almost 10 C in some coastal areas, then daytime highs may struggle to reach 8 C inland but could top off around 12 C near west coast.

OUTLOOK ... High pressure looks set to remain in place over Britain and northern France all week until at least New Years, and Ireland will remain in a light southerly flow that will keep temperatures fairly mild for most, although with some risk of frost and fog developing in the east (as is also more likely for Britain under a slack wind gradient). Some rain will graze the west coast around 26th-27th but it may only make it a few miles past a Belmullet to Clifden line before dying out, so most will have extensive dry intervals of weather during the holiday period. Temperatures should be reasonably mild, probably very mild near west coast (12-14 C) but more variable inland and east coast due in part to the slack wind gradient that won't mix the air very efficiently during the day, so if the nights get rather cold that colder air could linger under low cloud or fog especially. You may find in fact that all of these conditions will be encountered within short distances, valleys are more prone to cold and low cloud lingering than coasts or higher terrain in these patterns.

There is also the background trend to consider that eventually, this stagnant high could swell up and start moving northwest in response to changes in the upper levels, and that could bring on a more widespread cold spell early in the new year. However, this may be delayed for a week or two, the widely predicted stratospheric events have not actually happened yet.

My local weather turned rather nice for a change, as Thursday's storm moved away by Friday morning, leaving us under sunny skies and moderate northwest winds, highs near 4 C. A somewhat colder air mass is settling in and some light snow seems likely around here on the weekend, with more rain and gusty winds on the coast. The east coast storm has moved through the inland northeast U.S. and is now passing east of Lake Ontario into western Quebec province on its way to Baffin Island eventually. Record high temperatures were widespread in the eastern U.S. (typically they were around 18-20 C and many of them eclipsed 1957 records). Weather buffs will recognize that 1957-58 was a very strong El Nino winter although also the strongest sunspot producing winter of modern times.

Monday, 24 December, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, a few brighter intervals may develop by afternoon, as rather extensive fog and mist will be slow to clear, and when they do so, higher cloud layers are over top anyway. Rather cold in Ulster and east Connacht, much of Leinster, but warming up gradually to reach about 7 or 8 C. Staying milder in Munster and south, west Connacht, light rain at times, but as this spreads back to the north, it will be dying out gradually too. Highs 10 to 12 C. Generally light winds from an easterly direction.

TONIGHT ... Mist or fog likely, most places should remain quite mild around 7 to 9 C, a few clear spots could drop several degrees below that.

TUESDAY (Christmas Day) ... I hope you're not finding out it's Christmas Day from me, or the weather will be the least of your concerns. Anyway, it should be quite bland, rather mild and in some parts of the west drizzly at times, with highs near 13 C. Further east, mostly cloudy, the odd glimpse of the sun perhaps, and 8 to 11 C.

WEDNESDAY (St Stephen's Day) ... Mostly cloudy, mild, lows near 6 C and highs near 11 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will continue cloudy and mild, with some light rain advancing slowly inland from coastal Connacht, tending to break up once it moves inland. Some parts of the east and south may remain largely dry. Lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.

OUTLOOK ... A very gradual trend towards colder weather appears likely as the high pressure rebuilds after weak fronts pass during the weekend of 29-30 December, with only slight changes in the weather as a result, then mixtures of cloud and sunshine as the high parks almost overhead by New Years, with a high barometric pressure expected near 1045 millibars. This may be a step towards a pattern change where the high drifts even further northwest and begins to interact with oncoming colder air from the northeast, promoting a colder regime after about the 4th of January. This transitional stage may feature some slight frosts returning in early January and highs only 5 to 8 C.

My local weather was very seasonal bringing a light but solid snow cover of 3 cms, which should stick around for the week as temperatures will be dropping below freezing. The high on Sunday was -2 C. The weather pattern has lost all of the bluster that it had last week, with weak systems pushing onto the west coast but running out of milder Pacific air as soon as they try to move inland. This is pushing most of the snow expected this coming week into the western U.S., then further east, it's a dry and seasonably cold pattern with very little happening, at least it makes it easy to travel over this holiday season.

Once again, merry Christmas to those still looking in, I will post some brief updates for the next few days. We aren't doing very much here until a few days after the 25th, when a brief trip to see family on the coast is planned, then should be back home just in time for New Years.

Wednesday, 26 December, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY... Cloudy with a few brighter intervals, mild. Some mist or fog in a few places and also a bit of drizzle or light rain near northwest coast. Highs 11 to 14 C.

TONIGHT ... Fog or mist developing, generally quite mild, lows 7 to 10 C. A few locations inland east could drop a few degrees below that range if skies cleared.

THURSDAY ... Overcast, mild. Some rain moving into north and west by evening. Highs 12 to 14 C.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, as showers move east, somewhat breezy, lows near 7 C and highs near 11 C.

OUTLOOK ... The mild spell will begin to break down around or shortly after New Years, as high pressure rebuilds and repositions itself further north. This could allow for clearing skies which will certainly make the nights a lot colder (as they are presently under the high in France and Germany). Days would also be cooler than this current mild spell. Then there are some mixed signs of colder air still moving south in the first week to ten days of January.

My local weather remained cloudy and rather cold (I think, never went outside, but the snow hasn't melted) ... at around -1 C.

Friday, 28 December, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cloudy with some sunny breaks developing mid-day and afternoon, very mild. Highs 12 to 14 C.

TONIGHT ... Overcast, some light rain in parts of the north, very mild. Lows 8 to 11 C.

SATURDAY ... Breezy, mild, mostly cloudy with some sunny breaks in south, a few more stray showers crossing north later. Highs 11 to 13 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, breezy, mild. Lows near 8 C and highs near 12 C.

MONDAY ... Sunny intervals, colder. Morning lows 2 to 5 C and afternoon highs 7 to 9 C. At midnight (New Years' Eve) it seems likely to be dry, partly cloudy, and rather cold, around 4 or 5 C.

TUESDAY (New Years Day) ... Partly to mostly cloudy, lows near 4 C and highs near 8 C.

OUTLOOK ... We are still seeing some disagreement between the models used for guidance, with some suggestions of the mild spell redeveloping after the two or three day interruption around New Years, others saying that cold might actually hang around and deepen gradually, seems to be "on a knife edge" so to speak and waiting for possible major changes in the upper atmosphere to decide that trend. If it stays mild, it seems also likely to get quite windy at times; if it were to remain cold, then probably not as windy. Also there would definitely be more rain with the mild option, and chances for sleet or snow eventually with the cold, but even in the mild and windy scenario there could be brief colder turns after cold fronts pass.

My local weather remained quiet, mostly cloudy with a high of about -1 C. Not sure how my schedule is going to go from now to New Years' Eve, if I don't manage to post updates, perhaps somebody else will take a turn, and in any case, all the best for New Years.

Wednesday, 2 January, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny breaks mostly in north and east, patchy drizzle from low cloud or fog in parts of south and west, some isolated dense fog may reduce visibility near higher terrain in southwest. Light southeast winds or calm. Highs generally 6 to 9 C.

TONIGHT ... Overcast with some clear patches, drizzle or fog in some parts of south and west, lows 2 to 6 C.

THURSDAY to the WEEKEND ... Little change, similar weather conditions expected each day and overnight period. The exact details of where it clears out, who sees some drizzle or fog, may change but almost in a random way from one day to the next. There will be a tendency for the east and north to be colder but there again, if it cleared further west then it could cool down briefly there too. Not much wind or rain is likely in this pattern, but a slight chance of 2 to 5 mm rainfalls by the weekend in the north.

OUTLOOK ... This weather pattern is really stuck with nowhere to go as the circulation has slowed to a crawl over western Europe. Much colder air is moving south into central and eastern Europe. This sets up a difficult forecast situation because the current stagnant air mass could hang in for anywhere from four to ten days (or in my personal nightmare longer), but if it should ever shift west, it would open the door for the colder air to move in from north, northeast or east depending on the details, and then it might turn considerably colder. That could happen by about the 10th or be delayed to 15th or even longer, nobody really knows for sure and so most of the discussion among forecasters concerns what's happening in the stratosphere which could hold the key to what eventually happens at the lower levels.

Various models show little consistency from day to day and they have been taking turns showing colder or milder outcomes. This is the most difficult type of weather to forecast a week or two ahead, when a slight change could mean a large shift in temperatures for some regions. It is quite possible that colder air will move into some parts of Britain while not making it as far as Ireland, at least in some early stages of this eventual colder spell, so we'll be keeping an eye on it throughout the weather forum. I am trying to peer over the shoulders of as many people as I can to get a sense of the overall thinking in the weather community, but I find that everyone is rather confused by this disconnect between upper and lower levels of the atmosphere, waiting for "the other shoe to drop" when the lower levels respond in some way similar to what happened last (late) February. And as we know, when that shoe drops, it can be a boot load of snow. I would hesitate to try to time this but eventually there seems very likely to be an outbreak of very cold air on the sort of trajectory that might bring heavy snow to eastern counties, and perhaps at times to northern counties. This has been the long-range forecast all along, of course, but it does seem like a reasonable bet although certainly not "carved in stone" since some westward motion of the atmosphere is required.

My local weather has been quite cold, while away at the coast, about 10-15 cms of snow fell here (it rained hard during that event where we were), and that has formed a partially frozen crust due to temperatures generally in the -6 to -2 C range day and night. Further east, it's very cold across the Great Lakes region, trending to more average but dry cool conditions on the Atlantic seaboard, and there is very little active weather in North America as well at the present time. A fairly vigorous storm hit the eastern Canadian provinces but that's drifting away into the Labrador Sea today.

Friday, 4 January, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, light winds, highs 7 to 10 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with a few clear intervals, risk of frost or dense fog patches forming (inland southeast most likely), lows -1 to +5 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, spotty drizzle in parts of northwest, highs 7 to 10 C.

SUNDAY ... Breezy, some light rain developing in northwest by afternoon or evening, lows 2 to 5 C and highs 7 to 10 C.

MONDAY ... Breezy, even windy for a change in coastal north (westerly 50 to 80 km/hr), passing showers mostly in north, amounts light, lows near 4 C and highs near 8 C.

TUESDAY ... Breezy to windy, colder, winds northwest to north 50 to 80 km/hr in some parts of north and east, lows near 3 C and highs about 6 or 7 C.

OUTLOOK ... Rather cold, but dry, most of next week, perhaps one day of slightly milder temperatures around Friday then a second cold front will bring in slightly colder air around the weekend of 12th-13th. Some guidance is suggesting a turn towards very cold temperatures but this remains a rather low confidence forecast at this point.

My local weather turned a bit milder after some wet snow and light rain, quite windy at times, and highs near 2 C. Heavy rain is falling in coastal regions of B.C. and Washington state, with heavy mountain snowfalls spreading inland towards us.

Sunday, 6 January, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, some light rain in west and north but generally dry in south and east, highs 7 to 11 C. Moderate southwest winds will develop in northwest coastal counties.

TONIGHT ... Overcast, intervals of light rain, moderate southwest to west winds 50 to 70 km/hr, lows 6 to 9 C.

MONDAY ... Becoming windy with outbreaks of light rain in the north, isolated showers further south, winds west veering to north-northwest about 50 to 80 km/hr. Lows 6 to 9 C and highs 8 to 11 C. Temperatures will likely fall gradually in northern counties after mid-day.

TUESDAY ... Rather windy in east, cold, but generally dry, lows 2 to 5 C and highs 5 to 8 C. Winds northerly 40 to 60 km/hr.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, some outbreaks of light rain in north, but dry in south, rather cold. Lows 1 to 4 C and highs 7 to 9 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will be back to the dull, milder and nearly calm conditions as the high makes its last stand (we hope). Lows around 4 to 6 C and highs 8 to 10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Increasingly unsettled from next weekend on, with colder days at times, with stronger winds developing from west to northwest bringing a risk of wintry showers especially on higher terrain in north. The longer range guidance continues to offer colder patterns with temperatures closer to freezing, but nothing too severe showing up on charts yet, although a few occasions look quite windy and raw.

My local weather remained rather calm and mild as a weak Pacific low edges closer, bringing mixed sleety precipitation along for our Sunday weather. The high on Saturday was close to 5 C, a bit above normal for here.

Tuesday, 8 January, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny breaks developing in north and east, moderate northwest to north winds adding a rather cold feel although temperatures just slightly down from recent days at 7 to 10 C.

TONIGHT ... Some clear intervals north and east, lows -1 to +3 C with patchy frost inland, but staying rather cloudy in south and west, lows about 2 to 5 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny breaks, rather cold in north and east, somewhat milder in south and west with isolated showers or patchy drizzle, light winds. Highs 8 to 11 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will be mostly cloudy and breezy with little if any precipitation and highs near 10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Staying around 10 degrees over the weekend with moderate westerly winds and occasional rain in the north, staying dry in parts of the south. Somewhat colder next week with the risk of a much colder spell developing (guidance continues to be all over the place as models are struggling to handle the stratospheric warming episode that happened a few days ago). We are in a bit of a watch and wait holding pattern and the range of possible outcomes is quite large.

My local weather featured some light snow at mid-day otherwise cloudy but dry and highs near 1 C. We may get a rare sunny day on Tuesday.