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Flood risk in the South and East, very heavy rain and strong winds, Tues - Fri

  • 21-04-2012 9:02pm
    #1
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭


    Hi all,

    No harm in building up to a possible flooding event for parts of the country from late Tuesday to Friday morning. An area of low pressure looks like approaching the country from the southwest and deepening rapidly as it approaches Ireland throwing up it's associated frontal systems over the country. Tuesday night the action gets underway in the south and note the tightening pressure gradient that means strong southeasterly winds.

    Firstly let's look at rainfall

    Wednesday 6am

    201520.png

    Wednesday 12pm

    201521.png

    The timing there is unfortunate from a disruption point of view. Could be a few problems Wednesday evening for the journey home.

    Wednesday 6pm

    201524.png

    Wednesday night

    201527.png

    Thursday now and, well, it does not look great does it? Very heavy rain continuing.

    201529.png



    That is very nasty looking. Very uncomfortable if you will be out and about going to or from work or just on a ramble or whatever. I'd imagine people are going to really feel that strong easterly wind.

    But that's not the end because the rain goes on well into Friday often heavy. The whole country is at risk of flooding with the South and East really in the firing line. I'd expect disruption from this and i'd be interested in the thoughts of other resident weather nuts on the prospects. We're looking at at least 2 inches of rain here in some parts and possibly more on current projections.

    I can only post 5 attachments on this post so back in a tick with the next post.:)


«13456

Comments

  • #2
    gbee
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,388 ✭✭✭gbee


    Heard it on some forecast yesterday. Better clean and service my rain collector tomorrow then.


  • #3
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Tonight's ECM has over 60mm falling along parts of the east coast between Wednesday and Friday next.


  • #4
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Thursday evening

    201536.png



    Synoptic chart for Wednesday afternoon (ECM)

    201538.gif


    We are still a few days out so things could still change but broadly speaking most models are in good agreement. The potential strength of the winds is where most of the uncertainty is I think.


  • #5
    Birdnuts
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,760 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    C**K!!- Looking bad for Punchestown on Thursday:(


  • #6
    delw
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,655 ✭✭✭delw


    That looks like alot of rain,just as well water/river levels are low


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  • #7
    Calibos
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,810 ✭✭✭Calibos


    Might help with the eastern half of the countries soil water deficit. I'm sure the resevoirs need a good top up before the Summer anyway. Bring it on!!


  • #8
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Yes this is an interesting one and needs to be watched. Some drought areas could see water run off the surface in stead of soak for a time.

    Flooding looks to be main threat with driving rain in strong winds.

    Current Met Eireann forecast,
    On Tuesday night, however, a spell of very heavy and persistent rain will extend in to southern areas, bringing a risk of flooding.
    Wednesday will see that rain extend northwards over the country, although it will stay relatively dry in Ulster. Flooding is likely, especially in the east and south with up to 25 mm of rainfall likely to fall in the 24 hour period.

    Now even though water table is low, the continuous CURRENTLY forecast rain over the few days could indeed drive it up fairly quickly and cause problems.
    Now that's a long way off and downgrades are as we all know all too common.
    So yes at the moment the risk is there for disruption.

    I would be inclined to let the horse run for a bit and see what presents in a more reliable time frame as ECM could be overdoing this and track could change widely between now and then but a very valid threat all the same.:)


  • #9
    Birdnuts
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,760 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    Some disagreement this morning between ECM and GFS - the former saying yes while the latter moves things south of Ireland:confused:


  • #10
    Tindie
    Registered Users Posts: 1,259 ✭✭✭Tindie


    Yeah, at last some good windy weather lol


  • #11
    blackius
    Closed Accounts Posts: 469 ✭✭blackius


    Birdnuts wrote: »
    Some disagreement this morning between ECM and GFS - the former saying yes while the latter moves things south of Ireland:confused:
    Country file and just now the latest BBC forecast has all the rain missing us with just a dry day Wednesday albeit with a stiff northeast breeze...


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  • #12
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    That's from this mornings UKMO. There is a split in the models. The ECM ensembles though are solid that it won't pass to the South and has support from the other Euro models too.


  • #13
    Jim_Kiy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 482 ✭✭Jim_Kiy


    Netweather are going for a rather dry week in Dublin as well..much prefer the v heavy rain scenorio obviously.
    Just have to wait and see where it heads for I guess..
    Netweather also have forecasts for 'Cork Hole ..is that a :) or a place? that forecast shows some heavy rain on Thursday.


  • #14
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,963 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    best to get all this crappy weather now rather than having these charts all the way through July and August.


  • #15
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Tuesdays rain will run off but the soaking ability of the ground will improve by the day. Signs of near AVERAGE seasonal warmth from Sat/Sun onwards but not enough to deserve a thread.


  • #16
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    ECM 12z has the rainfall a bit further South and not as extensive as before.The 12z GFS puts it further north than previous runs but it still largely misses us. A few of the higher res euro models have it much more extensive. A good deal of uncertainty about this yet.


  • #17
    k.p.h
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,645 ✭✭✭k.p.h


    WEB_radar2_201204222045.png

    I look at the rainfall radar pretty much everyday and I can't remember ever seeing such a solid area of rainfall as the one that is coming in over Kerry as we speak. Is that a common sight on the radar ?


    http://www.met.ie/latest/rainfall_radar.asp


  • #18
    Oscar Bravo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,207 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    The rain in the SW is fairly light,probably Drizzle in some parts.Nice circle of Showers still active!


  • #19
    blackius
    Closed Accounts Posts: 469 ✭✭blackius


    darkman2 wrote: »
    ECM 12z has the rainfall a bit further South and not as extensive as before.The 12z GFS puts it further north than previous runs but it still largely misses us. A few of the higher res euro models have it much more extensive. A good deal of uncertainty about this yet.
    Siobhan was still going full belt on the 00z on the Rte forecast... full on wind and rain with the low on top of us-do they pre record the Sunday one earlier in the day or what ? Looks like it.


  • #20
    elduggo
    Closed Accounts Posts: 546 ✭✭✭elduggo


    blackius wrote: »
    Siobhan was still going full belt on the 00z on the Rte forecast... full on wind and rain with the low on top of us-do they pre record the Sunday one earlier in the day or what ? Looks like it.

    I'm pretty sure the weather reports are all live (goes some way to explaining the appalling spelling from time to time).

    I saw it after the 6 and 9 news yesterday and the 'outlook' report had changed in that 3 hours. After the 6 news they were predicting a dry friday, saturday and sunday. By 9pm this had changed to 'there is some uncertainty as to what is in store for next weekend'.


  • #21
    blackius
    Closed Accounts Posts: 469 ✭✭blackius


    Met eireann on the radio this morning are still forecasting a monsoon Wednesday but are using the words'
    looks like'


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  • #22
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    The GFS is more toward the flood risk scenario today especially in the East. The fronts are thrown further north than on previous runs. I think Met Eireann are spot on myself to add a little sprinkle of caution.


    201775.png

    201776.png



    ECM also upgrade longevity of persistent rain in the East by a good 12hrs as against the previous run.


    Incidentally my garden is actually flooded today on the grass so either alot of runoff with little soakage or the water table is not quite as low as thought.


  • #23
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    By far the worst case scenario in terms of flooding is the UKMO this morning. Very nasty in the east if this comes off

    201778.GIF


  • #24
    delw
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,655 ✭✭✭delw


    Just seen one of the lads selling the Evening Herald at the traffic lights with a head line on his jacket saying "Monster rain to hit city"
    It's not on their site yet but media must be jumping on the bandwagon


  • #25
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    I do wonder sometimes are people in the media lurking around here. Say hello if you are:D:pac:


    I highly doubt there will be so called "monster rain" (who came up with that term anyway?) in any case. Heavy persistent rain is almost nailed on. And there will be spot flooding here and there. Unlikely to be anything dramatic as far as current projections are concerned. I mean we have seen worse forecast.


  • #26
    gbee
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,388 ✭✭✭gbee


    darkman2 wrote: »
    I do wonder sometimes are people in the media lurking around here. Say hello if you are:D

    They have in the past, especially since Hurricane Can't remember it's name from last autumn ~ that was never going to be a hurricane but was billed as one that was going to smash into us in the morning while it was still 3.000 miles away off Florida.

    And I can confirm, our local area press, not only watch but have become weather addicts too. :) because of this forum.


  • #27
    DominoDub
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,572 ✭✭✭DominoDub


    I know that some of the INSURANCE companies do follow this forum .. as I have heard the name "M.T. Cranium" being mentioned by them.


  • #28
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Well the next model runs will be out shortly. That should give you more solid projections at this stage. As it happens I once again won't be here for the next few days due to other commitments. Always seems to happen when something interesting is about to occur:rolleyes:

    Anyway hopefully nothing too dramatic or disruptive. Enjoy the build up folks! CIAO. :cool:


  • #29
    DominoDub
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,572 ✭✭✭DominoDub


    MET Eireann issued a rain advisory at 11:14 23 April 2012

    This has been assessed by our Emergency Management team and following discussions with MET Eireann Forecast Division the latest forecasts for Dublin is for 12-15mm of rainfall over the period midnight Tuesday 24/04/2012 to 12 noon Thursday 26/04/2012. Other international forecasts are suggesting 15-20mm in this period.

    Tides on Wednesday and Thursday should reach levels of 1.6m, 1.5m, 1.3m and 1.0m respectively, which are well below monitoring level of 2.3m. 30-60km/hr East South East, East North East, North East and North North East winds are also forecast.The risk of Pluvial flooding from thunderstorm activity is possible but it is not possible to predict in advance the time, location or severity of any such thunderstorm activity.

    Areas at potential risk are: Areas previously affected by flooding, basements and local low lying areas. For useful tips on what do do in the event of a flood, please see the OPW website www.flooding.ie

    FloodAlert.jpg

    http://www.dublincity.ie/Pages/Welcome/MainPage.htm#Tab0


  • #30
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    What a horrid looking day :(

    Driving rain and showers.

    Winds gusting to 60MPH along the coast.

    Temperatures around 7c

    Bleurghhhh

    Rtavn481.png


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  • #31
    Iancar29
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    398839_10150838745966718_1297415677_n.jpg



    ANyone have a chart from October 24th handy to compare?


  • #32
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Iancar see my post in the A beginners guide thread below

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=78209614&postcount=30


  • #33
    elainesnuffles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 67 ✭✭elainesnuffles


    darkman2 wrote: »
    The GFS is more toward the flood risk scenario today especially in the East. The fronts are thrown further north than on previous runs. I think Met Eireann are spot on myself to add a little sprinkle of caution.


    201775.png

    201776.png



    ECM also upgrade longevity of persistent rain in the East by a good 12hrs as against the previous run.


    Incidentally my garden is actually flooded today on the grass so either alot of runoff with little soakage or the water table is not quite as low as thought.
    Oh god i have confirmation wednesday! Just my luck


  • #34
    Jim_Kiy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 482 ✭✭Jim_Kiy


    delw wrote: »
    Just seen one of the lads selling the Evening Herald at the traffic lights with a head line on his jacket saying "Monster rain to hit city"
    It's not on their site yet but media must be jumping on the bandwagon

    Its online now..

    http://www.herald.ie/news/watch-out-monster-rain-is-on-its-way-here-3088827.html


  • #35
    APMom
    Registered Users Posts: 41 ✭APMom


    Can I ask a question, compared to last October are we getting more or less rain? We had a major flood in our gymnastics club that night in October and want to be as prepared as possible this week. Thanks.


  • #36
    Iancar29
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    APMom wrote: »
    Can I ask a question, compared to last October are we getting more or less rain? We had a major flood in our gymnastics club that night in October and want to be as prepared as possible this week. Thanks.

    At the moment it doesnt look as severe , but is bad enough to be prepared just incase. All could change overnight. Best to be safe than sorry.


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  • #37
    Nabber
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    The system in October hit the Wicklow mountains with roughly 100mm plus.
    I think sea level Dublin area got 50-70mm. Can't remember the full details.
    25mm the day before and 50-70mm the next day.

    Some one correct me my figures are probably off the mark.

    If this system has a slight stall. Could we be looking at another October fest?

    Harolds cross was one of the hardest hit places.


  • #38
    Su Campu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    It would appear from observations that that low is generating some strong winds off northwestern France this evening. Ship BATFR54 in northern Biscay reported continuous winds of 45 - 47 knots all afternoon, while the cruiseship Oceana reported 45 knot winds (estimated) and a Squall at 1800 Z, associated with the trailing occlusion.
    Squall: A strong wind that rises suddenly, lasts for a few minutes, then passes away. Squalls are frequently associated with the passage of cold fronts. In such circumstances, they occur in a line and are typically accompanied by a sharp fall in temperature, veering wind, a rise in relative humidity, and a roll-shaped cloud with a horizontal axis (line squall).

    As always I'm a little sceptical of actual ship wind speeds as they can be on the high side, especially those marked as estimated (Oceana above). They are often also measured several times higher than the standard 10 metres, and other reports nearby in the link above don't support such high speeds. Oceana's reported 3 metre waves would also indicate that actual winds are a lot lower than the 45 knots, which from the Beaufort Scale should be generating winds of around 7-10 metres.


  • #39
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,154 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Nabber wrote: »
    The system in October hit the Wicklow mountains with roughly 100mm plus.
    I think sea level Dublin area got 50-70mm. Can't remember the full details.
    25mm the day before and 50-70mm the next day.

    Some one correct me my figures are probably off the mark.

    If this system has a slight stall. Could we be looking at another October fest?

    Harolds cross was one of the hardest hit places.

    They recorded 90mm at Dublin City Council offices/rain guage.

    Hard to believe, but over a 48 hour period I recorded 125.3mm here (:eek:) so I'd imagine higher elevations got even more!

    I don't think were looking at the same sort of beast this week - last October really was phenominal.


  • #40
    only one
    Registered Users Posts: 130 ✭✭only one


    Wonder will cork/Waterford get hit with floods


  • #41
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    only one wrote: »
    Wonder will cork/Waterford get hit with floods

    I wouldn't rule out some spot flooding for the south as heavy rain looks to get going from early wednesday morning.

    120423_1200_45.png

    And then eastern areas feel the horrible prolonged conditions as the low seems to stall for a while.

    120423_1200_48.png

    Also don't forget the strong onshore wind.


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  • #42
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,586 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    The mid-week storm is currently forming up around 50N 30W (EC has it at 1008 mbs around 52N 32W) as illustrated in this satellite image that you can animate as desired (later readers can probably see a more current image).

    http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/satellite/animateweb_e.html?imagetype=satellite&imagename=goes_sigwx_1070_m_..................jpg&nbimages=1&clf=1

    The winds mentioned in Biscay are associated with the previous system which moved past Ireland last night and basically brought rain only to the far south followed by bands of showers spiralling around it.

    So far the mid-week system is relatively weak and winds reported from nearby ships are 25-30 knots. The models show it deepening steadily on Tuesday as it approaches 20W and then reaching 975 mbs between Wexford and Cornwall on Wednesday, moving northeast while gradually weakening to a point somewhere over north central England on Thursday.

    Expect winds to gust to 55 or 60 kts on Wednesday in some marine areas east and south of Ireland and this may bring some very strong gusts inland, will just leave it at that so early in the proceedings and update as we get closer, but right now would not be too surprised to see gusts above 50 kts for a time in Dublin and all around the southeast in exposed locations.

    Rainfall potential is about 30-60 mms with this system. I don't expect flooding to be particularly serious because of a relatively dry spring (the past week has seen above normal rain but long term ground soil moisture is not excessive, I would assume the storm will start with rivers and streams running relatively low, so they can absorb this amount of rain without severe flooding as they fill to near flood stages). However, it's probably within the realm of possibility that some places could see enough rain to have flooding issues. Certainly the ground will become saturated and some fields will have standing water by end of the two-day period of the event.

    Will get more into this tomorrow, as there is always the chance that the models have all overestimated deepening potential or a new track emerges, there is a lot of development to be seen before we actually have this system fully activated.


  • #43
    To Alcohol
    Registered Users Posts: 526 ✭✭✭To Alcohol


    It'll be a miracle if Punchestown isn't cancelled.


  • #44
    ednwireland
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,452 ✭✭✭✭ednwireland


    To Alcohol wrote: »
    It'll be a miracle if Punchestown isn't cancelled.

    what about the FG tent there ? ;)

    My weather

    https://www.ecowitt.net/home/share?authorize=96CT1F



  • #45
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,586 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Storm now in a rapid development phase, 994 mbs at 50N 24W. Model consensus on track with slight variations, should be close to tip of Cornwall then northeast through south Wales into west Midlands of England and then Yorkshire. All models show a central pressure 970-975 mbs.

    I have checked the weather map archives, and failed to find as deep a low as this in late April especially on this track. That would apply to 131 years from 1871 to 2011.

    Have upgraded the boards forecast alert to a storm watch with 30-60 mms rain and wind gusts to 60 mph (SE backing ENE) in exposed areas.

    Long duration of event suggests potential for very high tides on east coast, for the south coast, water levels will be fairly high also but note that winds back around to become parallel to coast and then slightly offshore, so this would suggest less potential there for overtopping. The west coast may see some unusually low water levels at low tide times as water is pushed away from Ireland by the strong northeast winds.

    Will be very interesting to follow the details of the storm but it seems almost certain now to be a major event. Far north of Donegal could escape the rain for a good part of the event and rainfall amounts may not be excessive in parts of the west, I would say the 30 mm isohyet will run something like north Kerry to Athlone to Louth, with 15 mm from Galway to south Derry to Belfast, but 50 mm pockets east of higher terrain in southeast Ireland. This would include the Thursday portions of the rainfall.

    Sustained winds of 30-40 mph will spread out ahead of the deepening centre with gusts to 55-60 mph, and there is some chance of even stronger winds over the south half of the Irish Sea. In hilly areas of the west, you should factor in the terrain for your local forecast because this wind may be blocked out in a few places and channelled in others. But it will likely concentrate on outflow from Galway Bay and the Shannon-Lough Derg corridors.

    Wind speeds on top of high summits could reach 70-100 mph. It could also be cold enough there for sleet or ice pellets mixing with snow.

    The storm should arrive in the southwest around 8 pm today and by midnight it will have spread across most of Munster. It will arrive in Dublin around 0300 but peak conditions will occur about mid-day to evening.


  • #46
    ghogie91
    Registered Users Posts: 1,121 ✭✭✭ghogie91


    Hi Guys,

    Just wondering with the announcement of the new weather warnings of flooding, Is it due to hit Athlone again?

    Dont know if the town can deal with another mass flooding like last time, things are still being put right?

    Gary :confused:


  • #47
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Not a huge amount expected upriver, it is more like Clonmel or Kilkenny are at risk.


  • #48
    Iancar29
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Well at least the DCC are doing something to prepare... truck going around here clearing all the drains. At least there wont be piles of leaves to block up drains this time round.


  • #49
    Iancar29
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Wicklow looks like its gonna be bad acting as the shadow again.

    RAIN-D2-130.png


  • #50
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    I'd worry a bit about a repeat of the October floods in Dundrum or along the Dodder or indeed a Hurricane Charlie repeat.

    I'll probably start worrying about Wild Bill next. :D


  • #51
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,154 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    @ Iancar29

    Did that chart you posted just upadte? A couple of minutes ago, when I looked, there was a lot of red showing over the Dublin/Wicklow Mountains.

    When I looked again chart seems to have changed (in terms of downgrading ppn).

    I tend to get very wet here in these set ups being located on the foothills of the Dublin/Wicklow Mountains.


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