UFC/MMA Gambling. NO AFTER-TIMING

eagle eye · 22-10-2020 6:30pm

Fromvert wrote:

Whittaker vs Cannonier priced as a flip stands out when looking at the prices. Now Cannonier is good but when he's moved up a level he's lost (Jan, Reyes and Glover) albeit that was at LHW. Whittaker is one of the best at MW and I'll be backing him to get the win here.

Very hard time call. Cannonier looks like a beast at welterweight. Whittaker is a class act but he's taken punches in recent fights and he can't do that against Cannonier.
It's a flip between a Whittaker decision win and a Cannonier ko for me. I won't be betting on it.

mailburner · 22-10-2020 10:55pm

I fancy Cannonier by ko

I wasn't impressed with whittaker against Till and I honestly think those
wars with Romero and the quick ko v izzy have left their mark

but1er · 23-10-2020 9:36am

after that weight inn ill be putting more money on Justin Gaethje, Kahbib seemed relived to make weight

mailburner · 23-10-2020 10:20am

took the 11/4 on justin, don't think he drift anymore

going to back cannonier also at 10/11 (ko is only 13/8 so no value for me)

Tuivasa also for me at 10/11 but maybe the ko in round one at 7/2
If it goes past round two I think he'll tire and it's anyone fight but if he
connects he'll put struve away I think

mailburner · 23-10-2020 10:21am

I've seen bookies taking the piss but paddy power shame on you

aspinall 6/1, edwards :eek: sean o malley 4/1

The list goes on and on

but1er · 23-10-2020 10:49am

mailburner wrote: »

I've seen bookies taking the piss but paddy power shame on you

aspinall 6/1, edwards :eek: sean o malley 4/1

The list goes on and on

Leon edwards not even ranked anymore..

AlmightyCushion · 24-10-2020 1:23am

mailburner wrote: »

I've seen bookies taking the piss but paddy power shame on you

aspinall 6/1, edwards :eek: sean o malley 4/1

The list goes on and on

McGregor to be welterweight champ is only 3/1. Tom Aspinall, who the fúck is that guy. How is he only 6/1 to be heavyweight champ. Anyone who takes these bets is mental.

vafankillar · 24-10-2020 2:16am

holy shít! i took the day off work on sunday, and was staying up late tonight in preparation before just realizing now it's actually on normal-ish time for us for a change :O

Mellor · 24-10-2020 7:10am

joeguevara wrote: »

Hopefully the KO bets didn’t make your Ortega win redundant. Thought the head strikes when zombie was on ground would have stopped it.

Does KO include TKO as rarely there is an actual KO in ufc. Different interpretation than boxing.

KO/TKO is treated the same in both boxing and MMA betting.

d00mk1n · 24-10-2020 1:21pm

mailburner wrote: »

I've seen bookies taking the piss but paddy power shame on you

aspinall 6/1, edwards :eek: sean o malley 4/1

The list goes on and on

They took this one down

mailburner · 24-10-2020 1:47pm

d00mk1n wrote: »

They took this one down

no surprise there!
That at least is a bit of value, 5/1 for jones to win 2 fights....maybe even 1
They couldn't have that :mad:

Whelo79 · 24-10-2020 5:02pm

PP giving 3/1 for Khabib to win by sub. That's pretty good odds in my opinion.

mailburner · 24-10-2020 6:49pm

mailburner wrote: »

took the 11/4 on justin, don't think he drift anymore

going to back cannonier also at 10/11 (ko is only 13/8 so no value for me)

Tuivasa also for me at 10/11 but maybe the ko in round one at 7/2
If it goes past round two I think he'll tire and it's anyone fight but if he
connects he'll put struve away I think

With that bit of luck and 2 secs to spare this is going to be my night :pac:
never thought of doing a treble

Have a nice sweat on cannonier ko now too but didn't want to put justin in any multiple bets

mailburner · 24-10-2020 7:37pm

paddy going 6/1 on justin to win and land most significant strikes
it looks likely if he does indeed win surely

small bet on justin pts at 12s

but1er · 24-10-2020 8:28pm

mailburner wrote: »

took the 11/4 on justin, don't think he drift anymore

going to back cannonier also at 10/11 (ko is only 13/8 so no value for me)

Tuivasa also for me at 10/11 but maybe the ko in round one at 7/2
If it goes past round two I think he'll tire and it's anyone fight but if he
connects he'll put struve away I think

Hope you backed it

mailburner · 24-10-2020 8:30pm

but1er wrote: »

Hope you backed it

small bet on it but also part of a treble with cannonier being the 3rd part

mailburner · 31-10-2020 11:42pm

head is wrecked all day about andre fili at 6/5 to beat mitchell

price seems huge and mitchell is a prospect who hasn't beaten anyone yet and only wins if he can keep fili down

fili has fought some of the very best guys out there in comparison and being in the same camp as mendes faber and the likes he ought to be well prepared for a guy like mitchell

also a little tempted by silva pts at 11/2
silva is uriahs idol and I've a feeling he won't go out there trying to
put silva away and let's face it you couldn't back hall at 1/3
He will imo leave the killer instinct at home

I remember a similiar type fight with pat bary v crocop where bary seemed to be in awe of him and was high fiving him at one stage during the fight....lost a fight he should have won.

Hall lost the first two rounds against bevon lewis before gettting a ko, split win then against antonio carlos junior whilst silva even at 45 has only been stopped once since weidman finished him

will definitely have a small bet on silva pts at 11/2

edit, also worth remembering he won a round v izzy last year and that performance alone would easily suffice here
I'm going to back silva at 2/1 also

settled on these in order of stake size
Silva 21/10
Fili pts 13/5
silva pts 11/2
fili to win in round 3 22/1

mailburner · 07-11-2020 11:57pm

Romanov by sub is one I'm finding hard to see past tho only 6/4 pp

Rom is a beast with 7 sub wins, winning 4 of his last 5 by sub and de limas last four losses have been by sub and it's worrying for him that the likes of struve managed to get him down and sub him.
De lima hasn't been stopped by ko in over 8 years also.
This will be easy for romanov I think whatever happens.

it's 11/4 by sub and round one also but if he could somehow get to round two that would be massive at 9/1 so will back both

not sure what to expect from santos but if tex could survive the first couple of rounds then tex by sub in rounds 3/4/5 at 33s and above might be worth a euro or two

edit, price changed to 11/10 so had to go with hills at 13/10

Mellor · 08-11-2020 4:49am

mailburner wrote: »

Romanov by sub is one I'm finding hard to see past tho only 6/4 pp

Great shout. Thank you.
Took the round 1+2 sub like you as there’s rarely 3rd 3 subs anymore

eagle eye · 08-11-2020 6:18am

If Thiago Santos is back to his best after his injury and had a good camp them this finishes early. I'm on him to win in round 1.
These days Glover is the gatekeeper to elite level but Santos is top class.

tinpib · 08-11-2020 11:20am

mailburner wrote: »

not sure what to expect from santos but if tex could survive the first couple of rounds then tex by sub in rounds 3/4/5 at 33s and above might be worth a euro or two

That's a fantastic pick, and not that unusual from you.

mailburner · 14-11-2020 9:40pm

De freitas 5/4
De freitas sub 5/1

De freitas/moreno double 5/2

I don't know enough about these two to be confident but think there's value in de freitas, they may well cancel each other out but I fancy de freitas and think there's value in the sub price

moreno by sub 11/2 solely for value as I think he'll try and take mckee down and pts is a measly 13/8
I'm a bit surrprised moreno is 1/2 for the win considering the level of competition he's fought compared to mckee and has more ways to win this.

Brendan allen pts 13/5 close fight on paper, strickland had a war two weeks ago and allen is in my opinion a better all rounder but two tough guys.

Planned to do felder pts but It was really heart ruling head on this one, rda looks to have a big advantage should he decide to take felder down and I believe he will.

Card starts at 10

Whelo79 · 14-11-2020 11:42pm

I've gone for two small bets hoping Rhys gets the win.

€10 Sub Rd 2 @33/1
€10 Pts @ 6/1

eagle eye · 15-11-2020 2:03am

Yoder decision 12/5
Alhassan round 1 21/20
Felder ko 6/1

Rjd2 · 15-11-2020 6:58am

I'm probably ensuring Edwards gets knocked out in round 1, but tonight was a reminder that Chimaev has beaten absolutely nobody of any standard.

I like Mc Khee but Edwards would murder him just as easily as Chimaev.

That fight for me is 50/50 and Edwards is overpriced .

d00mk1n · 17-11-2020 11:22am

Mike Perry is 4/6 to beat Tim Means, sounds very fair to me.

Perry went a bit off the rails earlier this year but things seem to have calmed down.

Yes his pregnant girlfriend will be in his corner but he should get the decision vs Means imo. (Perry by points 4/1)

Senor Frog · 17-11-2020 6:57pm

Leon Edwards v Khamzat Chimaev (19Dec )

Leon Edwards win 13/8 with PP.
Seems good value to me !

eagle eye · 17-11-2020 7:14pm

Senor Frog wrote:

Leon Edwards v Khamzat Chimaev (19Dec )
Leon Edwards win 13/8 with PP. Seems good value to me !

Are you kidding?
You'd want to be getting 3/1 to make that good value.
Chimaev stopped Meerschaert in the first round in his last fight. He's stopped everybody he has ever fought in two rounds or less.
He's considered by a lot of the experts as a future Champion.
Edwards is smaller, similar reach. There's no place for him to hide, Chimaev has already shown he's awesome on the ground, he's shown massive power, he is fast.
I don't remember Edwards ever being ko'd, backing Chimaev to stop him is likely where the value lies.

Senor Frog · 17-11-2020 7:34pm

There's levels to fighting , I think Edwards is a proven fighter at a level far above anybody Chimaev has faced to date . Edwards is in the top three in the welterweight division. .

mailburner · 17-11-2020 7:41pm

d00mk1n wrote: »

Mike Perry is 4/6 to beat Tim Means, sounds very fair to me.

Perry went a bit off the rails earlier this year but things seem to have calmed down.

Yes his pregnant girlfriend will be in his corner but he should get the decision vs Means imo. (Perry by points 4/1)

Points are nice odds imo
I just can't decide which of them wins on points, means 10/3

Guaranteed cracker of a fight, best on that card for me

mailburner · 17-11-2020 7:54pm

Senor Frog wrote: »

Leon Edwards v Khamzat Chimaev (19Dec )

Leon Edwards win 13/8 with PP.
Seems good value to me !

Hard to say and a hard match to bet on, hate these type matches for betting purposes

Chimaev has beaten nobody worth mentioning yet but could be that good if you believe everything said about him.

I don't believe any of colby, usman or masvidval would put Edwards away and they are the best right now so it's a big ask for a guy who's beaten nobody to do it.

I agree the odds seem big on leon though and I might take him on points if the odds are too big

Rjd2 · 18-11-2020 6:59am

mailburner wrote: »

Hard to say and a hard match to bet on, hate these type matches for betting purposes

Chimaev has beaten nobody worth mentioning yet but could be that good if you believe everything said about him.

I don't believe any of colby, usman or masvidval would put Edwards away and they are the best right now so it's a big ask for a guy who's beaten nobody to do it.

I agree the odds seem big on leon though and I might take him on points if the odds are too big

Could chance your arm and hope all the money comes for Khamzat and maybe you get Leon close to 2/1 before the fight?

Khamzat is the type of fighter the general public are going to smash.

eagle eye · 18-11-2020 12:08pm

If you are going to back somebody then you must have an idea where his strengths lie.
What weakness have you see my n Chimaev to this point?
Where do you see Edwards winning this fight?

mailburner · 18-11-2020 12:44pm

eagle eye wrote: »

If you are going to back somebody then you must have an idea where his strengths lie.
What weakness have you see my n Chimaev to this point?
Where do you see Edwards winning this fight?

best he's fought is meerschaert who has now lost 14 fights

It's easy to look good against very average competion and thus far
based on who he's fought he's shown no weaknesses

Edwards probably only wins this on points shouild he be able to stay on his feet.

Mellor · 18-11-2020 1:51pm

eagle eye wrote: »

If you are going to back somebody then you must have an idea where his strengths lie.
What weakness have you see my n Chimaev to this point?
Where do you see Edwards winning this fight?

The guys Khamzat has fought were of very low standard.
He has faced zero ranked opponents. (Edwards is #3).
He is 9-0 but only one of his opponent was of UFC standard, and barely.
His 3 UFC opponents have a combine record 7 wins, and 13 losses.
None of those 3 have a winning UFC record individually.

Edwards has 18 career wins, twice as many wins in MMA as Khamzat.
Most were top flight UFC wins, more than Khamzat's entire career.
His has an 8 second finish in the UFC.
He has beaten multiple ranked opponents, included a former champion.
He has beaten top grapplers.

Khamzat has shown great potential, He could potentially win. But he has not been tested at this level to justify being a huge favourite.

eagle eye · 18-11-2020 2:19pm

Mellor wrote:

Khamzat has shown great potential, He could potentially win. But he has not been tested at this level to justify being a huge favourite.

That's all well and good but where's the angle to pick a winner?
You have one guy who is clearly miles ahead of anybody he has ever faced. The question isn't if he is good, it's how good.
Then you have a guy whose top level but isn't a finisher.

Gotta fancy Chimaev on the ground, hard to pick a winner standing.

I'm just not seeing where Edwards wins this fight.

I'm asking people to explain how they see Edwards winning, what is it that makes you fancy him? I know he has faced top fighters but you need to see where he can win it to make it a good bet.
I'm not calling it myself but the best bet in my mind is a Chimaev stoppage if it's a good price.
Based on what I've seen of Chimaev, against weaker opponents, I do believe he is going to be the Champion and soon.
It's how dominant he has been that's taken me. There hasn't been one second of doubt in any of his fights as to who was winning.

Mellor · 18-11-2020 2:35pm

eagle eye wrote: »

Gotta fancy Chimaev on the ground,

Do you? Based on what fight?
Out grappling John Phillips is not a major deal.
Leon has wins over Gunni, a better grapplervthan any of Chimaev’s opponents.

I'm just not seeing where Edwards wins this fight.

Potentially by KO, sub or points. All are possible given he’s fought and beat elite guys in those areas.

It's how dominant he has been that's taken me. There hasn't been one second of doubt in any of his fights as to who was winning.

Which of his fights do you think makes a win vrs Edwards most credible?

eagle eye · 18-11-2020 2:51pm

Mellor wrote:

Do you? Based on what fight? Out grappling John Phillips is not a major deal. Leon has wins over Gunni, a better grapplervthan any of Chimaevâ€™s opponents.

Gunni isn't the fighter he once was. A split decision win over him isn't anything special now. And I'm not dismissing Edwards body of work by saying that. He's been impressive.

Mellor wrote:

Potentially by KO, sub or points. All are possible given heâ€™s fought and beat elite guys in those areas.

How many KO and subs has Leon in the UFC?

Mellor wrote:

Which of his fights do you think makes a win vrs Edwards most credible?

I'm saying that he's dominated every second of his fights to this point. How many fighters can you name that have done that?
Also I'm saying that the above is what's taken me. I really believe he will be champion soon.
That's not to say I'm calling this fight though. All I'm saying is that if the price is right the best value bet would be a Chimaev stoppage, next best would be Edwards decision. That's because Edwards doesn't stop many people but we don't know about Chimaev's gas tank so I'd favour the Chimaev win inside the distance over an Edwards decision win.

Mellor · 18-11-2020 11:28pm

eagle eye wrote: »

Gunni isn't the fighter he once was. A split decision win over him isn't anything special now. And I'm not dismissing Edwards body of work by saying that. He's been impressive.

He is still a top grappler. Which is relevant as you seem to be making a big deal of Khabig's grappling.

How many KO and subs has Leon in the UFC?

3 or 4. But I don;t see the relevance. I see his most likely path to wining as a decision.

I'm saying that he's dominated every second of his fights to this point. How many fighters can you name that have done that?

How many of his fights have you seen?

That's not to say I'm calling this fight though. All I'm saying is that if the price is right the best value bet would be a Chimaev stoppage, next best would be Edwards decision. That's because Edwards doesn't stop many people but we don't know about Chimaev's gas tank so I'd favour the Chimaev win inside the distance over an Edwards decision win.

What you think will happen and the best value aren't the same.
I'm not saying Leon will def win. I'm saying Khabig being favourite on such a jump stinks of overhype.

Chimeav win is 1.55
Edwards is 2.65

Which of those bets do you think is better value?

Method of victoy bets are not out. But I assume they will reflect the above.

ASOT · 20-11-2020 8:17pm

All over means now this weekend.

Perry's ridiculous corner, probably done **** all training and now is massively overweight.

eagle eye · 20-11-2020 8:38pm

Mellor wrote:

What you think will happen and the best value aren't the same. I'm not saying Leon will def win. I'm saying Khabig being favourite on such a jump stinks of overhype.

My whole point was about value and not about who wins.

mailburner · 22-11-2020 12:53am

I'm on Means too and pts at 11/4
rodriguez pts 11/4 as Dalby has a concrete head

There's a few I think are value like chookagian at 21/10, no idea why she's such
a big price against calvillo

shogun 13/8 for me is a 50/50 fight

Jordan wright 21/10 all wins by finish, think he may be overpriced and buckley very short now after his highlight reel ko. I think one of these may be getting stopped in the first.
If wright somehow got buckley down the sub would be huge at 14/1 but I've a feeling he'll stand and bang.

Mellor · 22-11-2020 5:20am

eagle eye wrote: »

My whole point was about value and not about who wins.

If you are saying Khabig is value, then you must also be saying you think he wins a large percentage of the time.

eagle eye · 22-11-2020 5:54am

Mellor wrote:

If you are saying Khabig is value, then you must also be saying you think he wins a large percentage of the time.

I'm saying that looking Ng for value means looking at all potential outcomes.
Regardless of the level of opposition that Chimaev has faced he has a 100% inside the distance record. He's never went past round 2.

Leon Edwards is an excellent fighter who normally gets decision wins.

That's the two best options available.

I put Chimaev inside the distance on top because the unknown is his gas tank so we don't know if he can survive a third round if it gets there. So decision win for Edwards is slightly less likely than a win inside the distance for Chimaev.

Mellor · 22-11-2020 6:53am

You have to also consider the odds not just how likely it is. Leon is a pretty big underdog, if the fight is anywhere near a 50/50, then Edwards is value.
Edward by decision seems likely.

mailburner · 28-11-2020 11:18pm

Josh parisian by ko round 1 5/2 Hills

one of these is going to sleep in round one I think and parisian will come out swinging as will porter.
Porter is coming off a round one ko loss back in Aug, parisian won his last 6 by ko in which 5 were in round 1

not sure I can bet on smith again after his last two performances albeit against top guys but the sub at 4s if he was on his game would appeal to me

carlyle rarely goes the distance but I like the the 4s on a spike pts win

mailburner · 30-11-2020 10:10pm

I fancied vettori a little to beat hermansson and was thinking he'd be around 6/4 13/8 or thereabout

8/11 vettori 11/10 hermansson

I'm shocked vettori is the favourite here

MUFC91CS · 30-11-2020 10:24pm

mailburner wrote: »

I fancied vettori a little to beat hermansson and was thinking he'd be around 6/4 13/8 or thereabout

8/11 vettori 11/10 hermansson

I'm shocked vettori is the favourite here

Think Vettori is chronically underrated so fancied him myself but yeah was expecting the price to be much bigger. Still wouldn't be backing Hermansson either however.

mailburner · 11-12-2020 9:12pm

I fancy Oliveira at 6/4 and I can't even tell you why as I'm not sure

Gut feeling is all, big step up but his striking has improved so much and this
is his big shot, loses this and he'll fall back into the pack.
I think he'll be able to handle the pressure Tony brings also.

I might side with Tony over 5 but over 3 I like Oliveira

Not sure how he wins exactly pts or sub

tinpib · 12-12-2020 6:06pm

Back by popular demand my big priced UFC picks :pac:

Couldn't be bothered posting recently, probably just as well as not many have landed.

But I was shocked when I went through the prices today and saw JDS at 16/5 and Gane at 2/9, that is insane to me and screams hype train. I know that JDS has been KO'ed a lot recently and is up against Father Time but he is a huge, huge step up in opponent for Gane.

A few other hail mary big priced bets

Tony on pts at 3/1 as it's only 3 rounds

Virna Jandiroba by sub 17/2, looks like sub vs sub merchant.

UFC/MMA Gambling. **NO AFTER-TIMING**

Comments

UFC/MMA Gambling. NO AFTER-TIMING