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Hurricane Dorian
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Strange, because I would have thought that 'pedantic accuracy' was hallmark of science. NOAA is there to collect data and inform the public and relevant authorities, not 'safegaurd them'. That is not their responsibility.
NOAA’s primary mission is to save lives. It’s actually the first line of their mission statement.
NOAA have shown to err on the side of caution when it comes to weather updates which is In keeping with that mission.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutintro.shtml0 -
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star gazer wrote: »Still a serious threat with strengthening possible over the next 24 hours though not much actually expected.
NHCLatest GFS deepens the storm from c. 970mb to mid 950s as it accelerates towards Newfoundland. Likely to be a Category 3 strength extratropical cyclone if this came off.
SST values south of Virginia up to 29C then take a nosedive further North.
Alarming for Canada (and much later, us, in terms of remnants).
If min pressure is 961mb then it is actually strengthening again significantly faster than the GFS run I posted suggested.
ECM shows it hitting Nova Scotia at 937mb - borderline Cat 4 again. But it also thinks current pressure is closer to 940mb so probably not a great idea to pay the ECM any heed at the moment.0 -
NOAA’s primary mission is to save lives. It’s actually the first line of their mission statement.
NOAA have shown to err on the side of caution when it comes to weather updates which is In keeping with that mission.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutintro.shtml
I don't care what they say in their 'mission statement'. It is not their obligation or duty to 'save lives', but to inform the public and relevant authorities with proper scientific data - i.e, what they are paid to collect. They are a tool, that is all. We have enough self-appointed nannies in the world as it is.New Moon
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I don't care what they say in their 'mission statement'. It is not their obligation or duty to 'save lives', but to inform the public and relevant authorities with proper scientific data - i.e, what they are paid to collect. They are a tool, that is all. We have enough self-appointed nannies in the world as it is.
Equally, people don't really have to care if you don't care what they state as their mission
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Eye becoming better defined again, convection building with cold cloud tops becoming more symmetric.
Pressure down to 960.3hPa
Last pass through recorded 110kt flight level winds and surface winds of 95kt , slight possibly brief intensification expected but not a significant intensification.
Hurricane force winds 50 - 60 n mi offshore North East coast of Florida.
Expected to remain in an environment of light wind shear and warm sea temps over the next 36 hrs.
Expected to move nearer the S Carolina coast in about 20 hrs and near or over the N Carolina coast in 36 to 48 hr. NHC saying Dorian should accelerate Northeastwards after that as it weakens due to Shear and dry air entertainment ( new one for me , see below ) .
NHC are pointing out as it travels so close to the SE coast any slight deviation to the left could see the center move onshore.
Wikipedia: Entrainment is a phenomenon of the atmosphere which occurs when a turbulent flow captures a non-turbulent flow. It is typically used to refer to the capture of a wind flow of high moisture content, or in the case of tropical cyclones, the capture of drier air.
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Equally, people don't really have to care if you don't care what they state as their mission
Of course not, (and I really couldn't care less if they care or not) but bollox excuses such as 'erring on the side of caution' etc to justify sloppy data is just that.. bollox, and clinging on to the sacred words 'mission statements' is just a form of an appeal to authority.
If people offering opinions on the basic mechanics of weather events and all that is behind it on a 'message board' like this are so beneath to you, what exactly are you doing on here?New Moon
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Dorian has passed right over buoy 41004 in the past couple of hours. Here are the Pressure, 1-minute &10-minute windspeeds, direction and gusts. Note how the 1-minute speeds are over 10% higher than the standard 10-minute means. This is the reason why quoted hurricane windspeeds are never as strong as the equivalent typhoon speeds or our regular speeds, which are all 10-minute, i.e. a 100-knot hurricane is about a 90-knot typhoon.
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What will Ireland get?
Nothing. It will have dissipated well before us.
The latest discussion shows that Dorian is not going out without a fight, although since this was published the storm looks a complete mess structure-wise.There has been a significant change to the intensity forecast philosophy. The GFS and ECMWF, which have been forecasting Dorian to transition to a powerful extratropical low, now forecast intensification of the system due to baroclinic processes associated with the aforementioned trough, including very strong upper-level divergence. Given that Dorian is currently a well-organized hurricane and will be south of the Gulf Stream for about the next 18-24 h, it is likely that at least some of this strengthening will occur before Dorian becomes extratropical. The new intensity forecast now calls for Dorian to strengthen as a hurricane during the next 12-24 h, then undergo extratropical transition as it is passing near or over Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. The intensities in the new forecast are increased during the first 24 h to reflect this change. Dorian is likely to be a hurricane at landfall in Nova Scotia, but it will cause significant impacts even if it has completed extratropical transition by that time.
Key Messages:
1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds will continue along portions of the North Carolina coast for the next several hours.
2. Regardless of whether Dorian is a hurricane or a post-tropical cyclone, Dorian is expected to have a significant impact in portions of eastern Canada. Dangerous storm surge impacts are likely in portions of the Gulf of St. Lawrence, southwestern Newfoundland and eastern Nova Scotia this weekend. Hurricane-force winds are also likely in Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and possibly Newfoundland Saturday and Sunday. Refer to information from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for more information on these hazards.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/2100Z 36.9N 72.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 39.1N 69.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 42.9N 65.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 47.1N 61.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 50.6N 57.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 09/1800Z 55.5N 45.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED
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