Weds 13th / Thurs 14th Nov 2019: Rainfall warning with Snow and spot flood risk

Kermit.de.frog · 11-11-2019 8:30am #1

Been pondering whether or not it's worth a dedicated thread. I think it might be although a little bit of evolution to go yet.

Snow may reach low levels through Wednesday afternoon and evening leading to minor accumulations particularly inland. Typically a cm or two can be expected. Dublin is also at risk temporarily on Wednesday evening due to an off shore wind (though likely to be the sleet/very wet snow variety).

Snowfall could lead to commuter disruption. Accumulations should be temporary in most places.

Some more significant temporary snowfall is possible in both the mid west and southwest through Wednesday night as the occlusion slips away south. And, of course, high ground is to be avoided.

There is also a risk of spot flooding from heavy rain due to the pivoting front.

Raw. Temperatures between 0 and 4c generally on your way home (colder as afternoon progresses).

DOCARCH · 11-11-2019 8:38am

Was watching Country File forecast on BBC yesterday evening and it was showing quite a bit of 'white' over Ireland for Wednesday!

kittyn · 11-11-2019 8:40am

DOCARCH wrote: »

Was watching Country File forecast on BBC yesterday evening and it was showing quite a bit of 'white' over Ireland for Wednesday!

Think we may see our first flakes on the ground Doc 😉

DOCARCH · 11-11-2019 8:58am

kittyn wrote: »

Think we may see our first flakes on the ground Doc 😉

I am always skeptical!

Maybe some sleetiness.

Lucreto · 11-11-2019 9:28am

After last year I will take sleet.

Billcarson · 11-11-2019 10:26am

The hills should get snow ,that's usually the best we can hope for at this time of yr. Next weekend I hope to drive up to the dublin and Wicklow hills to hopefully see snow up there.

uck51js9zml2yt · 11-11-2019 10:29am

Can we hold the snow off for 2 weeks please? It will be 35C for me then

KingdomRushed · 11-11-2019 10:30am

It's an interesting set up for sure, and would surely bring much more interest were it now January. However, the longer we remain on the northern fringe of the jet-stream going into winter the more the odds of snow increase as we progress forward. The GFS is very interesting this morning, with quite cold conditions eventually developing later in the operational run, some northern blocking feeding in cold northerlies and north easterlies to Ireland. The ECM not so much, which shows a very large low pressure system once again established over Ireland at Day 10. All models are showing the potential for further 'yellow warning' rain events. Again if this pattern continues, river banks will soon be tested. If I recall right November 2009 was not dissimilar with exceptionally wet conditions prevailing, with very cold rain, systems diving north west to sout east. Then eventually the cold flooded in after christmas. The taster for the epic banquet of 2010, which still sits as king of all cold spells in my lifetime.

pauldry · 11-11-2019 10:35am

Out of all Novembers runs on GFS theres only been a handful of mild ones. Cold is the overriding theme.

Certainly a few snow episodes this Winter

Captain Snow · 11-11-2019 1:25pm

Interesting drive home Wednesday afternoon evening for those on the east, south east coast. Higher ground will get hammered.

Into Thursday we have an easterly. Possible Snow train on to higher ground, Sleet lower levels.

Rock Lesnar · 11-11-2019 1:25pm

You're bound to get 1 right at some stage Kermit

Gonzo · 11-11-2019 2:00pm

I'm not expecting much if anything here in Meath, we're probably a bit too far north and most likely light rain or sleet if it falls here.

highdef · 11-11-2019 2:16pm

I'm watching this like a hawk. I'm in North Kildare near the Meath border @ just under 90m ASL with a hill (Grange Hill) just under 150m to my immediate NE, another hill about 130m to my immediate south. Land is over 100m in all directions around me except for west and southwest.

Going by the above charts, I would realistically expect wet snow at my house, sticking to grass, cars, etc but a slushy mess on the roads and a good covering of wet snow on the top of Grange Hill.......usually happens a few times in any given winter.

I'll be keeping an eye on the CCTV from work so can abandon ship if things take a turn for the worse.

Having said that, by typing out the above, I've probably jinxed it!

Larbre34 · 11-11-2019 2:33pm

There is nothing in this to warrant a thread, seasonal accumulations of snow above 300m and spells of cold rain with the same spot flooding at all levels seen in recent weeks thanks to continuing leaf fall and a decent windchill requiring tights and gloves for anyone sports training midweek. Might warrant a yellow rainfall warning from Met É but hardly worth talking about.

pauldry · 11-11-2019 2:45pm

I disagree. I tend to think that threads are interesting for these events. They let us evaluate overall forecasting models and accuracy. Roads in rural spots n hills could be dodge on Thursday morning with slush so best to be informed.

Rock Lesnar · 11-11-2019 3:12pm

Im around 120asl here in meath, and surrounded by higher hills, we can get snow no matter how little so will be interesting to see if we get any, i think we might be a little north but sure we'll see

highdef · 11-11-2019 3:15pm

I'm with Pauldry on this. If the weather pans out as is being currently modeled by some of the computer models, there is a reasonable chance that this could affect a good number of people. There has been nothing to suggest anything severe but threads like this are good to follow the evolution of a forecast over time.

I normally take the high road over the top of Grange Hill when driving home from work but based on this forecast it might be a better idea for me to take the low road to avoid any snow that may be sticking on the hill.........Of course, in reality I will obviously venture over the hill to try get a white gold fix :P

JanuarySnowstor · 11-11-2019 3:32pm

Upper 850 temperatures are not low enough I think. I would think it's more mountains than even high ground. Welcome the thread though as it's certainly an event worth watching

The South most at risk as this is where the coldest air comes across!

Lucreto · 11-11-2019 3:38pm

The Run in the Dark on Wednesday in Dublin will be fun.

torres9kop · 11-11-2019 3:44pm

Will it snow on Wednesday night in Dublin 4 on the coast please?

JanuarySnowstor · 11-11-2019 3:46pm

torres9kop wrote: »

Will it snow on Wednesday night in Dublin 4 on the coast please?

Not likely, it's mainly a highground risk.
But then you never know in heavier ppn

ytpe2r5bxkn0c1 · 11-11-2019 4:01pm

Other than the Wicklow mountains, I think this will be a non event. A slight risk of wintery showers early but quickly followed by rain elsewhere.

RobertKK · 11-11-2019 4:12pm

The Castlecomer plateau probably gets some snow. Which rises in parts to over 300m asl.
The Met Eireann definition of high ground is greater than 200m asl.

The weather in Europe is very split, a cold north western half of Europe, and an exceptionally warm south eastern half of Europe.
Friends in Romania and Hungary talk about how unusual the weather is there compared to normal and they are still wearing t-shirts, rather than being wrapped up from the cold they should have.

So we are stuck in the cold and it looks like it will be this way for a while yet.

Storm 10 · 11-11-2019 4:37pm

Look at the snow they had in Donegal last night was that forecast, no harm in having something to chat about especially if it does sleet/snow

Mortelaro · 11-11-2019 4:38pm

Latest BBC news 24 graphics has that snow developing in West ulster, increasing as it heads down west leinster/East connaught and into North and west munster eventually, fed by a long land sweep northerly feed of already cold air that might just be enough to drag most of the parameters the right side of marginal for snow before it clears away
Their graphics grew the blob of snow as it moved south which would be in keeping with the long feed of land passage dropping those dew points

hoody · 11-11-2019 4:39pm

Ignacio Early Fleece wrote: »

Other than the Wicklow mountains, I think this will be a non event. A slight risk of winery showers early but quickly followed by rain elsewhere.

I hate the grammar pedants as much as anyone, but I am definitely on for a few downpours of vino!

ytpe2r5bxkn0c1 · 11-11-2019 4:53pm

hoody wrote: »

I hate the grammar pedants as much as anyone, but I am definitely on for a few downpours of vino!

Don't you just love autocorrect at times. :rolleyes:

I'll settle for a decent glass of red over a coating of white any day.

Working class heroes · 11-11-2019 4:57pm

Went for a run yesterday up to the summit of Djouce mountain. Almost blizzard like conditions when I hit about 600m. When I got to the summit I was met be a snowman. Fantastic!!

arctictree · 11-11-2019 5:18pm

15z GFS for Wednesday. Laois/Kilkenny look like they'll be getting a pasting!

Captain Snow · 11-11-2019 5:35pm

POUNDED with Snow

:D

blackwave · 11-11-2019 5:54pm

Meant to be driving from South Kilkenny to Dublin on Wednesday late afternoon /evening looks like I will be taking the M11 instead of the M9 just to be safe

Gonzo · 11-11-2019 6:57pm

arctictree wrote: »

15z GFS for Wednesday. Laois/Kilkenny look like they'll be getting a pasting!

This is looking more like a high ground and midlands event. I'd say anywhere within 40 miles of the Irish sea and under 200 meters will mostly see rain. Looks interesting alright for Kilkenny, Laois, Offally.

pad199207 · 11-11-2019 6:59pm

Very akin to what happened in December 2017

If there is any chance of lower level snow well I think danno in Durrow will be the sweet spot.

kod87 · 11-11-2019 7:03pm

looks good for some wet snow on the mountain tops alright, might see some white tops on higher hills in the midlands. Always nice to look at

Kermit.de.frog · 11-11-2019 7:10pm

Kinda nit picking even at this stage but Icon more north midlands area to lower levels and high ground further south.

Mortelaro · 11-11-2019 7:23pm

pad199207 wrote: »

Very akin to what happened in December 2017

If there is any chance of lower level snow well I think danno in Durrow will be the sweet spot.

If it's like Dec 17,then the beer garden at scraggs Alley in carlow is the spot

Meteorite58 · 11-11-2019 8:40pm

ECM very consistent in showing snow . Has shifted about a bit where it will fall but has shown it on every run for a few days now. Will it accumulate as showing on the chart , dont know but I suspect some could, thinking some places could get a few cm's , although it would be wet underneath and probably not cold enough to last on lower levels into daylight hours, but could accumulate on higher ground for a time . Looks like heavy wet snow if it does fall. I would imagine places over short distances will be reporting sleet and a few km's away snow and possibly following again with sleet or even following with rain. Noticed that as the band goes through temperatures rise again so plenty of melt happening more or less straight away. All down to the wire with this as regards location and how much will fall and accumulate... as ever!

pad199207 · 11-11-2019 8:52pm

All in all a Gaoth Laidir Nightmare type of Snow

Danno · 11-11-2019 9:08pm

pad199207 wrote: »

Very akin to what happened in December 2017

If there is any chance of lower level snow well I think danno in Durrow will be the sweet spot.

Lovely.

pad199207 · 11-11-2019 9:10pm

Danno wrote: »

Lovely.

I wonder will those good old ice pellets make a show

Meteorite58 · 11-11-2019 9:20pm

pad199207 wrote: »

All in all a Gaoth Laidir Nightmare type of Snow

Well if it does snow it certainly wont be the white fluffy sort.

JanuarySnowstor · 11-11-2019 9:47pm

Of course to the naked eye snow that is just about to melt looks far more dramatic than the fluffy snow that might come from the East...

What Username Guidelines · 11-11-2019 9:54pm

Working class heroes wrote: »

Went for a run yesterday up to the summit of Djouce mountain. Almost blizzard like conditions when I hit about 600m. When I got to the summit I was met be a snowman. Fantastic!!

Same, well I walked, not ran. Lovely and clear, then a cloud moved in and dumped more snow and moved off again. Two kids about 10 and 12 working on a snowman.

Danno · 11-11-2019 10:14pm

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

Same, well I walked, not ran. Lovely and clear, then a cloud moved in and dumped more snow and moved off again. Two kids about 10 and 12 working on a snowman.

STUNNING Photograph!

JanuarySnowstor · 11-11-2019 10:52pm

The 18z gfs is a slight upgrade with upper temperatures a fraction lower. All only 48hrs away now. The South and Southeast most at risk

Rougies · 11-11-2019 11:17pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Of course to the naked eye snow that is just about to melt looks far more dramatic than the fluffy snow that might come from the East...

That can often be the case alright. Snowflakes that are partially melting stick together easier and can form those amazing looking "dinner plate" flakes we often see in marginal situations.

In contrast, the first night of Storm Emma was very underwhelming visually and looking outside you could barely tell it was snowing yet the accumulation rate of pure powder snow was insane.

Naggdefy · 11-11-2019 11:52pm

RobertKK wrote: »

The Castlecomer plateau probably gets some snow. Which rises in parts to over 300m asl.
The Met Eireann definition of high ground is greater than 200m asl.

The weather in Europe is very split, a cold north western half of Europe, and an exceptionally warm south eastern half of Europe.
Friends in Romania and Hungary talk about how unusual the weather is there compared to normal and they are still wearing t-shirts, rather than being wrapped up from the cold they should have.

So we are stuck in the cold and it looks like it will be this way for a while yet.

325m asl at home. The plateau max is half a mile away at 336m asl. Would expect snow and a fair bit with these synoptics.

Graces7 · 12-11-2019 6:43am

Those pesky drummers been hard at it all night again.. Apparently, or so the story goes, they gate crashed the ferry...Punch drunk with lack of sleep. All stocked up anyways whatever the weather brings.
Stay warm, please.

JanuarySnowstor · 12-11-2019 7:47am

It's looking a bit more marginal again this morning. Primarily rain and moving through quite quickly apart from some Eastern areas where it pivots for a while. Any snow looks to be confined to the very highest hills and mountains imo

highdef · 12-11-2019 8:30am

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

It's looking a bit more marginal again this morning. Primarily rain and moving through quite quickly apart from some Eastern areas where it pivots for a while. Any snow looks to be confined to the very highest hills and mountains imo

I had a feeling this would be the case as we drew closer to the actual "event" - History tells us that further downgrades of snow potential are more likely than upgrades.

pauldry · 12-11-2019 9:05am

This was never going to be much bar mountains but there are more opportunities this month

Weds 13th / Thurs 14th Nov 2019: Rainfall warning with Snow and spot flood risk

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