NIO

I'm sticking with them.

Ultimately, my reasoning is :

* they have actual cars out on the road, and available for sale

* their sales are increasing, quarter on quarter

* their production is increasing, and they've capacity to further increase

* they have significant cash resources, to support their growth

* they've clearly got support in China, which is a massive market

* their battery swap idea offers a far better solution, then the alternative park and recharge for hours (not to mention the fact that it offers an additional income stream)

Hi,

I've read that they can swap a battery in under five minutes, in fact I saw an article where their management said it can be done in under three minutes, so it must be an easy enough process.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nio-strong-footing-tap-chinas-140602919.html

I don't know what protection they've got, to stop others replicating their idea for swapping batteries, but assume they've taken precautions. They've clearly got first mover advantage, but it's clearly a capital intensive project, in its own right.

That said, there's also an arguement in favour of bringing in battery swap as the standard, given the time saving benefits, and cheaper cost of getting EVs into widespread private ownership. From what I gather, renting a battery, rather than buying one, could reduce the cost of buying a car by up to €5k.

NIO hiring in Norway, looks like they will be expanding to Europe soon.

garrettod wrote: »

Didn't they name Norway, as the first European country that they were expanding into, during 2021 - I'm sure they did?

I actually think Denmark gonna be the 1st, but probably both in 2021, both high adaptors of EVs. Dec delivery figures the next NIO event, they will need something like 6300 to hit their q4 delivery expectations, nov was a record at just over 5k delivered, and the only way they will hit the 6300 is if they have got the dual shift up and running in the factory, that will allow them to knock out 7500 or so per month, but will probably take time to iron out any issues. NIO day Jan 9th also, hard to know is that priced in already though. Actually out of interest when do most companies usually product q4 earnings results, or do they just skip straight to the full years earnings?

In any case all this is short term noise, not in my wildest dreams when I bought at like 5.90 and up along in the teens back in June did I think we'd be sitting here at almost 50 end of the year.

Timmaay wrote: »

I actually think Denmark gonna be the 1st, but probably both in 2021, both high adaptors of EVs. Dec delivery figures the next NIO event, they will need something like 6300 to hit their q4 delivery expectations, nov was a record at just over 5k delivered, and the only way they will hit the 6300 is if they have got the dual shift up and running in the factory, that will allow them to knock out 7500 or so per month, but will probably take time to iron out any issues. NIO day Jan 9th also, hard to know is that priced in already though. Actually out of interest when do most companies usually product q4 earnings results, or do they just skip straight to the full years earnings?

In any case all this is short term noise, not in my wildest dreams when I bought at like 5.90 and up along in the teens back in June did I think we'd be sitting here at almost 50 end of the year.

7007 Dec deliveries woohoo.

https://finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/nio-launches-nio-certified-used-154516990.html

Also announced today, this is big.
Gonna buy more first thing.

DutchYurt wrote: »

Reckon it's a good time to get in or should their be more turbulence over the coming weeks? today was a rough day.

Being blunt again with you Dutch haha, no you've probably missed the boat, where were you the last few weeks when it was in the low 40s, well beat down from its peak of 57, but nicely holding support?, That was the time to be dollar averaging into it, waiting for it to build. Personally I'd say you probably need to pick afew companies that you really really like, do plenty of homework on them, and be ready to buy any dips that they clearly seem too beat down, rather than trying to jump in on the likes of NIO on a +10% day, that's what I'd call fomo. Having said that hopefully NIO will still push on across the next week leading up to NIO day on Jan 9th, but there is a strong possibility that NIO day is already priced in, and it will sell off immediately after (or maybe more likely immediately before lol) NIO day.

Standard Toaster wrote: »

Those average 12 month price forecasts are interesting, to say the least...

Here's hoping they are right!

DutchYurt wrote: »

Thanks man, still kicking myself for selling in the single digits - didn't get to pay as much attention over xmas. Bluntness is the only way Fastly had me concerned with its rise and meteoric fall so I missed the boat. Not to worry! Thanks for the input!

I bought it originally at 3.30 but didn't do enough research on it and sold at 6.60, bought back in at 27 and 46. My favourite stock at the moment because I have done the research now, lesson learned.

Trump won't get out lol. Definitely hold tight and do not panic sell due to an overreaction like this.

Ok

cronos wrote: »

I think the risk is you don't have enough shares.

Nio is going to be worth far more than $50 dollars in a few years, read up on what they are doing, the ties with the Chinese government, in the biggest EV market in the world, Incentives that other companies don't have. You can buy the car without the battery and save a crazy amount and also be under the incentive limit that the others like tesla and xpeng cannot do, they then make 150 a month on doing the battery swap service which 30-40% of customers sign up to and the Chinese government are helping them roll these out. They are likely to showcase their new 150wt battery on Nio day and all there batteries can be used in the swap stations. You could use a small one then switch to a bigger one if you wanted to drive longer.

Standard Toaster wrote: »

NIO Day live stream, on now

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lzB-3q_e5Cw

Is this for the new iPhone or a car? Very slick

I think they are jumping the gun with solid state batteries. I don’t think the tech availability matches their time line

Also wouldn’t solid state batteries render battery swapping stations unnecessary. As the charge time is minimal

Atlas_IRL wrote: »

So, i was still very bullish when i watched Nio Day this morning but just watched a youtuber i follow whos a big tesla/nio bull and his fundamental analysis is always very good. Have a look as it paints a different light.

Maybe some of this will be cleared up by Nio soon and some was lost in translation but well worth a watch. I haven't seen anyone else question what he brings up.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yyU9lSXcbVs

Hmm interesting watch. Makes me think Nio should buy CATL and cut off the competition. Probably not an actual option but would be an interesting maneuver.

Actually looking at market cap it would be the other way around haha

ted1 wrote: »

I can’t see the demand for that justifying the battery Swapping. It adds needless costs and complexities, so much that I’d be reluctant to invest. ( I don’t think they’ll lose sleep overthat)

Well that and the option to upgrade the car as new tech becomes available or as old batteries die. But yes how much demand is open to question, but are they don't have loads of these stations versus the population anyway. It's not like they were going to have the same frequency as petrol stations do currently. Would be more of an issue if they had built all the stations already.

garrettod wrote: »

150kw battery pack tops Tesla, I believe.

... That's a big selling point, for the months ahead..

The video mentioned earlier suggests Nio don't themselves make batteries. I'm confused if in fact they will be making batteries themselves now or if they are getting it from a third party (mentioned in the video).

Timmaay wrote: »

NIO's still have a normal plug charger also, so you can buy the battery and work away as normal, which would work well in countries or locations that don't have NIO battery swap locations. My question would be how much extra does it cost to have a removable battery in the car, against say a Tesla where its fully integrated and actually a stressed member of the chassis? And how much extra will the battery as a service revenues generate above this cost, we are hopefully talking about like 10x the cost of a more complex battery setup ha.

Tesla had a battery swap and ditched it
https://www.tesla.com/en_IE/videos/battery-swap-event


https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/teslas-battery-swapping-plan-isnt-working-out-2015-6%3famp

The cars can still do it. However moving foreword their design of integrating the larger batteries wouldn’t allow them.

CATL do the batteries for Nio and loads of Companies, they do some of Teslas as well, not sure if all of teslas. So what he was pointing out was that everyone can get the 150kw tech unless Nio have some sort of deal with CATL that only they will get it. I'm sure we'll know at some stage.

SpacialNeeds wrote: »

What platform is good to buy this on?

I joined Plus500 and I'm just waiting for my account to be verified but eToro did all that and then wouldn't let me buy as I'm in Ireland

Degiro, trading 212 (make sure the invest, not CFDs), or Revolut all good

Bawa wrote: »

The company may be fine but the stock is ridiculous. Look at the P/Sales ratio. It's insane!

People have been screaming that for years about Tesla too. I'm not saying this won't all pop but it could equally still keep going up for a long time yet