The Weather Warning Discussion/Debate Thread

DOCARCH · 10-10-2018 3:10pm #1

Shiny new thread for discussion/debate on weather warnings!

Discussion/debate on the pros/cons of the current weather warning system, and general praise/criticism of same will be moved from other threads, to this thread, to avoid clutter and taking other threads off topic.

cherryghost · 10-10-2018 3:22pm

It's swings and roundabouts always. You have a group of people saying the warning wasn't enough, or ME overreacted. Can never please anyone.

I wonder if they would be happy with a 1-5 alert system instead of a 3 tiered colour system?

MJohnston · 10-10-2018 4:33pm

cherryghost wrote: »

It's swings and roundabouts always. You have a group of people saying the warning wasn't enough, or ME overreacted. Can never please anyone.

I wonder if they would be happy with a 1-5 alert system instead of a 3 tiered colour system?

I think the UKMO system is a good improvement on ours:

I think it could be improved though - instead of the above matrix, do something like this:

Harry Palmr · 10-10-2018 5:00pm

MJohnston wrote: »

I think the UKMO system is a good improvement on ours:

I think it could be improved though - instead of the above matrix, do something like this:

Ah jasus the more options the greater the confusion. Weather warnings should be as simple and clear as possible. Words actually work best in this regard - the problem with Yellow/Orange/Red is not the words it's how and when they are used. It's best to assume the worst and then change to a lesser level if appropriate.

MJohnston · 10-10-2018 5:06pm

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Ah jasus the more options the greater the confusion. Weather warnings should be as simple and clear as possible. Words actually work best in this regard - the problem with Yellow/Orange/Red is not the words it's how and when they are used. It's best to assume the worst and then change to a lesser level if appropriate.

With respect, I don't think it helps to redefine a problem we've all discussed for years. It'd be good if people proposed some alternatives.

By the way, this kind of matrix chart would be very easily translated into words:

"Very high chance of orange level impacts, with a medium chance of lower yellow level impacts."

ZX7R · 10-10-2018 7:39pm

Sometimes I think it was more fun when there was no warnings.
Waking up to a foot of snow,
A storm out of nowhere frightening the begiesus out of you ect ect.
As far as the current weather warning goes I think it's quite adequate.
But they should drop the colour for weather advisories
That is where confusion comes in .
The way yellow advisories are completely egnored or mistakingly though to be a yellow warning.
Keep advisories colour less,
Keep colour coding to warnings

JanuarySnowstor · 10-10-2018 11:10pm

The models really all made a botch of handling storm Callum. It's now predicted to stay well off shore and just a tightning of gradient over land.
I can't see how an orange warning should apply here. It looks standard bog fare weather event.

Re Cork and floods query earlier.....
Cork rarely floods unless it's preceded by a strong Easterly which has the knock on of backing up the tide!

Villain · 10-10-2018 11:42pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

The models really all made a botch of handling storm Callum. It's now predicted to stay well off shore and just a tightning of gradient over land.
I can't see how an orange warning should apply here. It looks standard bog fare weather event.

Re Cork and floods query earlier.....
Cork rarely floods unless it's preceded by a strong Easterly which has the knock on of backing up the tide!

Interesting views, you don’t think any areas will reach Orange levels? Several models still showing that they will. I guess that adds the question what models and inputs are used to decide on Warning levels.

10-10-2018 11:54pm

i have no issue with the yellow/orange/red system as they usually also tell you what the colour means. I think they need to amend the warning system by county though as counties like Leitrim or Limerick may find themselves on a downgraded colour even though parts of the county experience weather which warrants a higher level.

ednwireland · 11-10-2018 11:08am

What's the point of the orange warning everything is still open you still have to go to work so it's no different to putting out a yellow warning. Except that if you get caught out it allows the authorities to say it was an orange warning.
Warnings are fine but you may get a few people delaying there trip to the shops if there's an orange or you may go out and put a few bits of stuff away outside. No one is going to change their behaviour if your place of work / school/ whatever expects you to be there your going in !
And joanne donnelly should get a reprimand for sensationalist weather forecasting she should stick to the facts.

Rhineshark · 11-10-2018 11:15am

Personally, I am fine with the current system *but* I take Orange warnings seriously and I'm also aware that conditions can deteriorate quickly (or not get as bad as expected) based on a small shift in track so I can and will plan accordingly. I also pay attention to tree and other local conditions (heavy leaves, lots of rain etc)

I am worried at people saying "oh sure it's only Orange.." though. Orange is serious. Red is "shut down country" time. I don't like the rather cavalier attitude regarding orange warnings that I'm seeing sprouting up. It's a bit like ignoring a Cat 3 on the grounds that ah sure, it's not a 5, y'know?

I live an isolated rural spot so I don't play around with bad weather conditions and appreciate the colour codes.

spookwoman · 11-10-2018 1:01pm

The yellow warning is fine its the orange that's a bit of a grey area. Orange wind levels are 1. Wind Mean Speeds between 65 and 80 km/h
Gusts between 110 and 130 km/h and red is gusts over 130.

Maybe there should be a category numbering system for orange and the last one would be into the red. Like the cat 1 to 5 for hurricanes but also take into consideration existing soil moisture levels and if trees have leaves. Using the beaufort scale is another idea for storms because using their scale from 10 which is 88.5 up trees are blown over etc and gives a better idea of the damage that can be done.

Beaufort Wind Scale
8 --- Fresh gale 39 - 46 mph 62.7 - 74kph Twigs broken off trees, walking against wind very difficult

9 --- Strong gale 47 - 54 mph 75.6 - 86.9kph Slight damage to buildings, shingles blown off roof

10 -- Whole gale 55 - 63 mph 88.5 - 101kph Trees uprooted, considerable damage to buildings

11 -- Storm 64 - 73 mph 102.9 - 117kph Widespread damage, very rare occurrence

12 -- Hurricane over 73 mph 117kph + Violent destruction

Strangegravy · 11-10-2018 1:27pm

It's the county lines that create the biggest problem really.

The western tips of Galway and Mayo might get winds that warrant a Red warning from Storm Callum, but the eastern sides might only be Yellow.

They should just do a straight or curved linear system, forgetting about county lines, and have red/orange, orange/yellow buffer zones between the warning areas.

DOCARCH · 11-10-2018 2:13pm

Strangegravy wrote: »

It's the county lines that create the biggest problem really.

The western tips of Galway and Mayo might get winds that warrant a Red warning from Storm Callum, but the eastern sides might only be Yellow.

They should just do a straight or curved linear system, forgetting about county lines, and have red/orange, orange/yellow buffer zones between the warning areas.

Agreed....that's the way UKMO do it. Makes a lot of sense.

Using counties does not make much sense. The weather you might get in Clifden in a storm could be world apart from what might be experienced in Ballinsloe!

Rhineshark · 11-10-2018 2:24pm

Strangegravy wrote: »

It's the county lines that create the biggest problem really.

The western tips of Galway and Mayo might get winds that warrant a Red warning from Storm Callum, but the eastern sides might only be Yellow.

They should just do a straight or curved linear system, forgetting about county lines, and have red/orange, orange/yellow buffer zones between the warning areas.

Yeah, I agree on that. The weather really doesn't care about county borders below it. And it creates daft issues like the north of Leitrim being yellow surrounded by orange, or the very wide county of Galway really not likely to be orange inland but may be red to the west of the city etc.

ZX7R · 11-10-2018 3:04pm

Another thing that needs to be addressed is boards weather warnings.
For example the current tread says level 2 weather warning be prepared.
The problem I have is if a person is looking at the heading it looks like it's a country wide warning

MJohnston · 11-10-2018 3:07pm

ZX7R wrote: »

Another thing that needs to be addressed is boards weather warnings.
For example the current tread says level 2 weather warning be prepared.
The problem I have is if a person is looking at the heading it looks like it's a country wide warning

If posters can't be expected to actually read a little bit of the thread they're seeing those warnings on, we're doomed. I seriously don't think anything about that process needs to change, people need to.

ZX7R · 11-10-2018 3:19pm

MJohnston wrote: »

If posters can't be expected to actually read a little bit of the thread they're seeing those warnings on, we're doomed. I seriously don't think anything about that process needs to change, people need to.

Most don't

Harry Palmr · 11-10-2018 3:22pm

Strangegravy wrote: »

It's the county lines that create the biggest problem really.

The western tips of Galway and Mayo might get winds that warrant a Red warning from Storm Callum, but the eastern sides might only be Yellow.

They should just do a straight or curved linear system, forgetting about county lines, and have red/orange, orange/yellow buffer zones between the warning areas.

I suggested that a while back and got shot down!

edit - something like this

spookwoman · 11-10-2018 4:05pm

MJohnston wrote: »

If posters can't be expected to actually read a little bit of the thread they're seeing those warnings on, we're doomed. I seriously don't think anything about that process needs to change, people need to.

Not to mention it is a thread with weather enthusiasts discussing the weather, its not as if its the national weather service.

Sycamore Tree · 11-10-2018 4:13pm

How did we survive in the 70s and 80s without coloured weather warning processes?
I don't ever recall my school being shut due to weather and I don't ever remember feeling in any danger walking/cycling to and from school.

People are shouting Call it Red days before a storm even materialises. We have become awful soft and helpless.

smodgley · 11-10-2018 7:30pm

Sycamore Tree wrote: »

How did we survive in the 70s and 80s without coloured weather warning processes?
I don't ever recall my school being shut due to weather and I don't ever remember feeling in any danger walking/cycling to and from school.

People are shouting Call it Red days before a storm even materialises. We have become awful soft and helpless.

Snowflake society now ( pun intended)

MJohnston · 11-10-2018 7:44pm

smodgley wrote: »

Snowflake society now ( pun intended)

Oh please.

Beechwoodspark · 11-10-2018 8:55pm

I just hope we don’t wake up tomorr realising Met eireann have called it wrong for the second time in a number of weeks

Rhineshark · 11-10-2018 9:05pm

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

I just hope we don’t wake up tomorr realising Met eireann have called it wrong for the second time in a number of weeks

It will absolutely be "wrong" to a certain number of people who won't care or indeed notice that other regions were hit far worse. If they do not personally see trees down, Met Eireann got it wrong. Sure as Christmas.

Macy0161 · 12-10-2018 8:11am

Rhineshark wrote: »

It will absolutely be "wrong" to a certain number of people who won't care or indeed notice that other regions were hit far worse. If they do not personally see trees down, Met Eireann got it wrong. Sure as Christmas.

There's already complaints from areas that weren't under orange on the chat thread!

As to how we survived in the 70's and 80's, well people did take more personal responsibility, and that included listening to the weather forecast, not just following clickbait facebook headlines from the likes of the journal or joe...

Rhineshark · 12-10-2018 8:28am

Macy0161 wrote: »

There's already complaints from areas that weren't under orange on the chat thread!

As to how we survived in the 70's and 80's, well people did take more personal responsibility, and that included listening to the weather forecast, not just following clickbait facebook headlines from the likes of the journal or joe...

Ikr! God forbid anyone else get a warning when they were only yellow and have not woken up in Oz!

And storms came in with less warning (esp in specific areas) and people occassionally died. Also, there were less cars on the road, travelling in packs at rush hour getting stuck in traffic under tree-lined avenues and less power lines to get downed.

Graces7 · 12-10-2018 10:12am

ZX7R wrote: »

Most don't

Their loss then

Graces7 · 12-10-2018 10:15am

Sycamore Tree wrote: »

How did we survive in the 70s and 80s without coloured weather warning processes?
I don't ever recall my school being shut due to weather and I don't ever remember feeling in any danger walking/cycling to and from school.

People are shouting Call it Red days before a storm even materialises. We have become awful soft and helpless.

I remember having to walk five miles home in freezing fog and darkening as the buses had stopped running. |Had the forecast been heeded?

Pretzill · 12-10-2018 11:21am

I think they should do away with the category system of yellow, orange and red and just go back to warning us about the weather. Storm Ali did not have the hype surrounding it, two people died, it was close to a red here. Storm Callum as an orange is just a slightly windy day.

When you draw a large brush stroke over swathes of the country you will never predict the levels on a more regional level. I would prefer regional weather forecasts in more detail and less of the hype, more of the clear forecasting.

Macy0161 · 12-10-2018 12:19pm

Is it not just that people are just a bit thick? Ignored Ali as it was only orange, went overboard in expectations of Callum, next orange warning they'll ignore it, and rinse and repeat. Rather than actually listen and digest the forecast and have appropriate expectations and reactions*?

*The media have a massive role to play in this. The Journal, for example, has been hyping Callum all week. I expect they'll fill the weekend about how crap our weather forecasters are...

prunudo · 12-10-2018 12:45pm

Macy0161 wrote: »

Is it not just that people are just a bit thick? Ignored Ali as it was only orange, went overboard in expectations of Callum, next orange warning they'll ignore it, and rinse and repeat. Rather than actually listen and digest the forecast and have appropriate expectations and reactions*?

*The media have a massive role to play in this. The Journal, for example, has been hyping Callum all week. I expect they'll fill the weekend about how crap our weather forecasters are...

Never a truer word said regarding the media and inparticular social media.
Prime example is facebook and their targeted ads. All week my girlfriend has been telling me about Storm Callum and red warnings even before it was named offically. Her source was the likes of daily mirror, her.ie, journal etc who were all filling her facebook feed with bull**** stories and half truths. Nothing of the sort on my facebook and I followed the weather develop through the likes of Met.ie, met office, bbc weather and of course this forum.
Inform yourself from trusted sources, make up your own opinion and you won't be too far off with what actually transpires.

Amprodude · 12-10-2018 12:51pm

The Hype forecast. I thought the way reports were going on, we were going to have roofless houses in the morning. Far from it. They should have known that when it's lashing rain and windy there will never he a dangerous storm then. It be alot different if it wasn't raining. The rain takes the sting out of the storm.

MJohnston · 12-10-2018 1:01pm

Amprodude wrote: »

The Hype forecast. I thought the way reports were going on, we were going to have roofless houses in the morning. Far from it. They should have known that when it's lashing rain and windy there will never he a dangerous storm then. It be alot different if it wasn't raining. The rain takes the sting out of the storm.

You "thought the way reports were going"? There's your problem. This was an orange level storm for coastal areas and that's what we got.

I don't know why even posters to this forum can't figure out that this means it was never forecast to be as major as some recent storms like Ophelia (which was a nationwide red).

Deedsie · 12-10-2018 1:05pm

Someone else may have suggested this already, but why dont they do the warnings based on Municipal districts or LEA's even. Some counties are very very big. And the weather in Clonmel and Nenagh could be entirely different for example. So all Tipperary getting a warning is a bit silly.

I am 100% in support of Met Eireann and the warning system. I just think the county division is not the ideal

Amprodude · 12-10-2018 1:06pm

MJohnston wrote: »

You "thought the way reports were going"? There's your problem. This was an orange level storm for coastal areas and that's what we got.

I don't know why even posters to this forum can't figure out that this means it was never forecast to be as major as some recent storms like Ophelia (which was a nationwide red).

Orange status also existed over counties Cork Kerry Waterford Clare Galway Mayo Donegal feom 10 pm last night to 9am this morning. Orange was orange but it wasn't anywhere close to Ophelia last year and it's the next rate down from that. All it was a bit of wind and loads of rain. Many reporters from what I saw were saying it was the end of the world when it hit. What people will do to sell newspapers or get more people reading their articles/reports. We need not worry about future storms unless they are status red I feel.

MJohnston · 12-10-2018 1:16pm

Of course it wasn't anywhere close to Ophelia, it wasn't forecast to be! How is this not getting through? Orange is less than red. And when there's only 3 categories, orange can be significantly less than red.

If a storm is pegged as orange level, it means "be prepared". If it is red it means "take action". Theres a huge difference between those two things.

The problem generally right now isn't "political correctness" or "softness" or some other made up nonsense, it's increasing ignorance. If people don't make themselves aware of what these warning levels mean (and they are very clearly explained on the Met Eireann website), then the blame is theirs, not the system. It doesn't take much effort to understand.

Could the system be more impact based, rather than based on strict weather criteria? Absolutely, but it wouldn't cut out the amount of people being completely ignorant.

Amprodude · 12-10-2018 1:31pm

MJohnston wrote: »

Of course it wasn't anywhere close to Ophelia, it wasn't forecast to be! How is this not getting through? Orange is less than red. And when there's only 3 categories, orange can be significantly less than red.

If a storm is pegged as orange level, it means "be prepared". If it is red it means "take action". Theres a huge difference between those two things.

The problem generally right now isn't "political correctness" or "softness" or some other made up nonsense, it's increasing ignorance. If people don't make themselves aware of what these warning levels mean (and they are very clearly explained on the Met Eireann website), then the blame is theirs, not the system. It doesn't take much effort to understand.

Could the system be more impact based, rather than based on strict weather criteria? Absolutely, but it wouldn't cut out the amount of people being completely ignorant.

I was prepared alright. I had my rainjacket on so that I would not get wet when I went to my car after work last night. This was at most a status yellow storm.

MJohnston · 12-10-2018 2:14pm

Amprodude wrote: »

This was at most a status yellow storm.

Nope, it wasn't. The criteria are very clear. Go read them.

Harry Palmr · 12-10-2018 2:19pm

MJohnston wrote: »

Of course it wasn't anywhere close to Ophelia, it wasn't forecast to be! How is this not getting through? Orange is less than red. And when there's only 3 categories, orange can be significantly less than red.

Ah but maybe it was 66.5% orange!

green123 · 12-10-2018 4:41pm

MJohnston wrote: »

Nope, it wasn't. The criteria are very clear. Go read them.

Then the criteria are wrong.

"storm" callum was a complete non event.

Yet another embarrassment for our so called weather "experts".

Pretzill · 12-10-2018 5:28pm

MJohnston wrote: »

Could the system be more impact based, rather than based on strict weather criteria? Absolutely, but it wouldn't cut out the amount of people being completely ignorant.

No. But I think the system is making the general public more complacent. The hype is dangerous too. But if 15 counties are called out as Orange that says be prepared winds could reach up to x

Call it orange and that's what people see - be more thorough and detailed about regional systems instead of this wide brush stroke. The general public can understand a forecast - What perhaps they don't understand is Storm Ali and Storm Callum both being an Orange warning - I don't think storms should be named either - it all plays into the hype.

Edited to add one of the weather people said it would be a weaker orange for Dublin?? What's that Miwadi now -

DOCARCH · 12-10-2018 5:36pm

Pretzill wrote: »

I don't think storms should be named either - it all plays into the hype.

You may have hit the nail on the head there. People are very familiar with hurricanes being named. Naming our storms just adds to the hype and people expect hurricane effects!

As a result, you get comments like this....

green123 wrote: »

"storm" callum was a complete non event.

prunudo · 12-10-2018 5:44pm

DOCARCH wrote: »

You may have hit the nail on the head there. People are very familiar with hurricanes being named. Naming our storms just adds to the hype and people expect hurricane effects!

As a result, you get comments like this....

The fact the list is released at the start of the season also feeds into the hype. The media know the name of the next storm before its even officially named and are calling it out as major event with red warnings 4 or 5 days before it is even due to possibly hit.
You also have slack reporting mixing up weather systems and referring to ex hurricanes that are neither strong enough to cause damage or connected to the system effecting us.

spookwoman · 12-10-2018 7:33pm

jvan wrote: »

The fact the list is released at the start of the season also feeds into the hype. The media know the name of the next storm before its even officially named and are calling it out as major event with red warnings 4 or 5 days before it is even due to possibly hit.
You also have slack reporting mixing up weather systems and referring to ex hurricanes that are neither strong enough to cause damage or connected to the system effecting us.

I don't think the names are the issue I think it's how the forecast is read is the big problem. At least with a warning of a few days it gives people a chance to prepare, might mean rescheduling work or getting the job done quicker. It also gives parents a chance to organize that the kids may be off school. Same with jobs. Would be a hell of a lot more giving out if people where only told that morning oh a storm is due to hit in the next few hours and the schools are closed etc. It's not a perfect science so not everywhere is going to get orange level weather even if they are in an orange listed area. Better to be safe than sorry.
But there is a responsibility with the weather presenters to not hype it. Out of the presenters I think Jean Byrne and Gerry Murphy are the best, they are not into the drama and speak with level tones and sound like meteorologists. Donnelly is the worst for over hyping the storms.

prunudo · 12-10-2018 9:26pm

spookwoman wrote: »

I don't think the names are the issue I think it's how the forecast is read is the big problem. At least with a warning of a few days it gives people a chance to prepare, might mean rescheduling work or getting the job done quicker. It also gives parents a chance to organize that the kids may be off school. Same with jobs. Would be a hell of a lot more giving out if people where only told that morning oh a storm is due to hit in the next few hours and the schools are closed etc. It's not a perfect science so not everywhere is going to get orange level weather even if they are in an orange listed area. Better to be safe than sorry.
But there is a responsibility with the weather presenters to not hype it. Out of the presenters I think Jean Byrne and Gerry Murphy are the best, they are not into the drama and speak with level tones and sound like meteorologists. Donnelly is the worst for over hyping the storms.

I agree, the modern way of presenters/dj's reading the weather is part of the problem. 5 word weathers or forecasts with a very general countrywide description of what is due are all part of the problem.

piuswal · 13-10-2018 12:32am

Pretzill wrote: »

I think they should do away with the category system of yellow, orange and red and just go back to warning us about the weather. Storm Ali did not have the hype surrounding it, two people died, it was close to a red here. Storm Callum as an orange is just a slightly windy day.

When you draw a large brush stroke over swathes of the country you will never predict the levels on a more regional level. I would prefer regional weather forecasts in more detail and less of the hype, more of the clear forecasting.

The colouring system arose out of the need to have a standardised European widesystem that could be understood by all for any particular country - the Meteoalarm system -by anyone , natives or visitors; particularly so in the age of frequent and widespread international travel.

Amprodude · 13-10-2018 3:20am

MJohnston wrote: »

Nope, it wasn't. The criteria are very clear. Go read them.

Criteria was clear. They said Orange status but it was barely Yellow.As it was only was a bit of wet wind.

gozunda · 13-10-2018 3:28am

Amprodude wrote: »

Criteria was clear. They said Orange status but it was barely Yellow.As it was only was a bit of wet wind.

And the 30,000 who lost power due to same "bit of wind" etc ? . Lol ...

Rhineshark · 13-10-2018 11:00am

gozunda wrote: »

And the 30,000 who lost power due to same "bit of wind" etc ? . Lol ...

It's the usual approach of "it was only a bit of wet wind for ME and I was ofc the person the forecasts were being aimed at so because I didn't see a major storm, the warnings were incorrect."

There seems to be a significant number of people for whom the concept of other people doesn't exist.

Sycamore Tree · 13-10-2018 11:09am

gozunda wrote: »

And the 30,000 who lost power due to same "bit of wind" etc ? . Lol ...

I guess it's all relative. Ali left 186,000 people without power and many were without power for days because so many trees had fallen on the lines. I did not see one tree down yesterday on my 30 min drive to work but during Ali I saw about 12 full trees down on the same route not including heavy branches. It was carnage.

The Weather Warning Discussion/Debate Thread

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