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The Weather Warning Discussion/Debate Thread

DOCARCH

Shiny new thread for discussion/debate on weather warnings!

Discussion/debate on the pros/cons of the current weather warning system, and general praise/criticism of same will be moved from other threads, to this thread, to avoid clutter and taking other threads off topic.

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Amprodude

MJohnston wrote: »

You "thought the way reports were going"? There's your problem. This was an orange level storm for coastal areas and that's what we got.

I don't know why even posters to this forum can't figure out that this means it was never forecast to be as major as some recent storms like Ophelia (which was a nationwide red).

Orange status also existed over counties Cork Kerry Waterford Clare Galway Mayo Donegal feom 10 pm last night to 9am this morning. Orange was orange but it wasn't anywhere close to Ophelia last year and it's the next rate down from that. All it was a bit of wind and loads of rain. Many reporters from what I saw were saying it was the end of the world when it hit. What people will do to sell newspapers or get more people reading their articles/reports. We need not worry about future storms unless they are status red I feel.

Deedsie

Someone else may have suggested this already, but why dont they do the warnings based on Municipal districts or LEA's even. Some counties are very very big. And the weather in Clonmel and Nenagh could be entirely different for example. So all Tipperary getting a warning is a bit silly.

I am 100% in support of Met Eireann and the warning system. I just think the county division is not the ideal

MJohnston

Amprodude wrote: »

The Hype forecast. I thought the way reports were going on, we were going to have roofless houses in the morning. Far from it. They should have known that when it's lashing rain and windy there will never he a dangerous storm then. It be alot different if it wasn't raining. The rain takes the sting out of the storm.

You "thought the way reports were going"? There's your problem. This was an orange level storm for coastal areas and that's what we got.

I don't know why even posters to this forum can't figure out that this means it was never forecast to be as major as some recent storms like Ophelia (which was a nationwide red).

Amprodude

The Hype forecast. I thought the way reports were going on, we were going to have roofless houses in the morning. Far from it. They should have known that when it's lashing rain and windy there will never he a dangerous storm then. It be alot different if it wasn't raining. The rain takes the sting out of the storm.

prunudo

Macy0161 wrote: »

Is it not just that people are just a bit thick? Ignored Ali as it was only orange, went overboard in expectations of Callum, next orange warning they'll ignore it, and rinse and repeat. Rather than actually listen and digest the forecast and have appropriate expectations and reactions*?

*The media have a massive role to play in this. The Journal, for example, has been hyping Callum all week. I expect they'll fill the weekend about how crap our weather forecasters are...

Never a truer word said regarding the media and inparticular social media.
Prime example is facebook and their targeted ads. All week my girlfriend has been telling me about Storm Callum and red warnings even before it was named offically. Her source was the likes of daily mirror, her.ie, journal etc who were all filling her facebook feed with bull**** stories and half truths. Nothing of the sort on my facebook and I followed the weather develop through the likes of Met.ie, met office, bbc weather and of course this forum.
Inform yourself from trusted sources, make up your own opinion and you won't be too far off with what actually transpires.

Macy0161

Is it not just that people are just a bit thick? Ignored Ali as it was only orange, went overboard in expectations of Callum, next orange warning they'll ignore it, and rinse and repeat. Rather than actually listen and digest the forecast and have appropriate expectations and reactions*?

*The media have a massive role to play in this. The Journal, for example, has been hyping Callum all week. I expect they'll fill the weekend about how crap our weather forecasters are...

Pretzill

I think they should do away with the category system of yellow, orange and red and just go back to warning us about the weather. Storm Ali did not have the hype surrounding it, two people died, it was close to a red here. Storm Callum as an orange is just a slightly windy day.

When you draw a large brush stroke over swathes of the country you will never predict the levels on a more regional level. I would prefer regional weather forecasts in more detail and less of the hype, more of the clear forecasting.

Graces7

Sycamore Tree wrote: »

How did we survive in the 70s and 80s without coloured weather warning processes?
I don't ever recall my school being shut due to weather and I don't ever remember feeling in any danger walking/cycling to and from school.

People are shouting Call it Red days before a storm even materialises. We have become awful soft and helpless.

I remember having to walk five miles home in freezing fog and darkening as the buses had stopped running. |Had the forecast been heeded?

Graces7

ZX7R wrote: »

Most don't

Their loss then

Rhineshark

Macy0161 wrote: »

There's already complaints from areas that weren't under orange on the chat thread!

As to how we survived in the 70's and 80's, well people did take more personal responsibility, and that included listening to the weather forecast, not just following clickbait facebook headlines from the likes of the journal or joe...

Ikr! God forbid anyone else get a warning when they were only yellow and have not woken up in Oz!

And storms came in with less warning (esp in specific areas) and people occassionally died. Also, there were less cars on the road, travelling in packs at rush hour getting stuck in traffic under tree-lined avenues and less power lines to get downed.

Macy0161

Rhineshark wrote: »

It will absolutely be "wrong" to a certain number of people who won't care or indeed notice that other regions were hit far worse. If they do not personally see trees down, Met Eireann got it wrong. Sure as Christmas.

There's already complaints from areas that weren't under orange on the chat thread!

As to how we survived in the 70's and 80's, well people did take more personal responsibility, and that included listening to the weather forecast, not just following clickbait facebook headlines from the likes of the journal or joe...

Rhineshark

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

I just hope we don’t wake up tomorr realising Met eireann have called it wrong for the second time in a number of weeks

It will absolutely be "wrong" to a certain number of people who won't care or indeed notice that other regions were hit far worse. If they do not personally see trees down, Met Eireann got it wrong. Sure as Christmas.

Beechwoodspark

I just hope we don’t wake up tomorr realising Met eireann have called it wrong for the second time in a number of weeks

MJohnston

smodgley wrote: »

Snowflake society now ( pun intended)

Oh please.

smodgley

Sycamore Tree wrote: »

How did we survive in the 70s and 80s without coloured weather warning processes?
I don't ever recall my school being shut due to weather and I don't ever remember feeling in any danger walking/cycling to and from school.

People are shouting Call it Red days before a storm even materialises. We have become awful soft and helpless.

Snowflake society now ( pun intended)

Sycamore Tree

How did we survive in the 70s and 80s without coloured weather warning processes?
I don't ever recall my school being shut due to weather and I don't ever remember feeling in any danger walking/cycling to and from school.

People are shouting Call it Red days before a storm even materialises. We have become awful soft and helpless.

spookwoman

MJohnston wrote: »

If posters can't be expected to actually read a little bit of the thread they're seeing those warnings on, we're doomed. I seriously don't think anything about that process needs to change, people need to.

Not to mention it is a thread with weather enthusiasts discussing the weather, its not as if its the national weather service.

Harry Palmr

Strangegravy wrote: »

It's the county lines that create the biggest problem really.

The western tips of Galway and Mayo might get winds that warrant a Red warning from Storm Callum, but the eastern sides might only be Yellow.

They should just do a straight or curved linear system, forgetting about county lines, and have red/orange, orange/yellow buffer zones between the warning areas.

I suggested that a while back and got shot down!

edit - something like this

ZX7R

MJohnston wrote: »

If posters can't be expected to actually read a little bit of the thread they're seeing those warnings on, we're doomed. I seriously don't think anything about that process needs to change, people need to.

Most don't

MJohnston

ZX7R wrote: »

Another thing that needs to be addressed is boards weather warnings.
For example the current tread says level 2 weather warning be prepared.
The problem I have is if a person is looking at the heading it looks like it's a country wide warning

If posters can't be expected to actually read a little bit of the thread they're seeing those warnings on, we're doomed. I seriously don't think anything about that process needs to change, people need to.

ZX7R

Another thing that needs to be addressed is boards weather warnings.
For example the current tread says level 2 weather warning be prepared.
The problem I have is if a person is looking at the heading it looks like it's a country wide warning

Rhineshark

Strangegravy wrote: »

It's the county lines that create the biggest problem really.

The western tips of Galway and Mayo might get winds that warrant a Red warning from Storm Callum, but the eastern sides might only be Yellow.

They should just do a straight or curved linear system, forgetting about county lines, and have red/orange, orange/yellow buffer zones between the warning areas.

Yeah, I agree on that. The weather really doesn't care about county borders below it. And it creates daft issues like the north of Leitrim being yellow surrounded by orange, or the very wide county of Galway really not likely to be orange inland but may be red to the west of the city etc.

DOCARCH

Strangegravy wrote: »

It's the county lines that create the biggest problem really.

The western tips of Galway and Mayo might get winds that warrant a Red warning from Storm Callum, but the eastern sides might only be Yellow.

They should just do a straight or curved linear system, forgetting about county lines, and have red/orange, orange/yellow buffer zones between the warning areas.

Agreed....that's the way UKMO do it. Makes a lot of sense.

Using counties does not make much sense. The weather you might get in Clifden in a storm could be world apart from what might be experienced in Ballinsloe!

Strangegravy

It's the county lines that create the biggest problem really.

The western tips of Galway and Mayo might get winds that warrant a Red warning from Storm Callum, but the eastern sides might only be Yellow.

They should just do a straight or curved linear system, forgetting about county lines, and have red/orange, orange/yellow buffer zones between the warning areas.

spookwoman

The yellow warning is fine its the orange that's a bit of a grey area. Orange wind levels are 1. Wind Mean Speeds between 65 and 80 km/h
Gusts between 110 and 130 km/h and red is gusts over 130.

Maybe there should be a category numbering system for orange and the last one would be into the red. Like the cat 1 to 5 for hurricanes but also take into consideration existing soil moisture levels and if trees have leaves. Using the beaufort scale is another idea for storms because using their scale from 10 which is 88.5 up trees are blown over etc and gives a better idea of the damage that can be done.

Beaufort Wind Scale
8 --- Fresh gale 39 - 46 mph 62.7 - 74kph Twigs broken off trees, walking against wind very difficult

9 --- Strong gale 47 - 54 mph 75.6 - 86.9kph Slight damage to buildings, shingles blown off roof

10 -- Whole gale 55 - 63 mph 88.5 - 101kph Trees uprooted, considerable damage to buildings

11 -- Storm 64 - 73 mph 102.9 - 117kph Widespread damage, very rare occurrence

12 -- Hurricane over 73 mph 117kph + Violent destruction

Rhineshark

Personally, I am fine with the current system *but* I take Orange warnings seriously and I'm also aware that conditions can deteriorate quickly (or not get as bad as expected) based on a small shift in track so I can and will plan accordingly. I also pay attention to tree and other local conditions (heavy leaves, lots of rain etc)

I am worried at people saying "oh sure it's only Orange.." though. Orange is serious. Red is "shut down country" time. I don't like the rather cavalier attitude regarding orange warnings that I'm seeing sprouting up. It's a bit like ignoring a Cat 3 on the grounds that ah sure, it's not a 5, y'know?

I live an isolated rural spot so I don't play around with bad weather conditions and appreciate the colour codes.

ednwireland

What's the point of the orange warning everything is still open you still have to go to work so it's no different to putting out a yellow warning. Except that if you get caught out it allows the authorities to say it was an orange warning.
Warnings are fine but you may get a few people delaying there trip to the shops if there's an orange or you may go out and put a few bits of stuff away outside. No one is going to change their behaviour if your place of work / school/ whatever expects you to be there your going in !
And joanne donnelly should get a reprimand for sensationalist weather forecasting she should stick to the facts.

[Deleted User]

i have no issue with the yellow/orange/red system as they usually also tell you what the colour means. I think they need to amend the warning system by county though as counties like Leitrim or Limerick may find themselves on a downgraded colour even though parts of the county experience weather which warrants a higher level.

Villain

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

The models really all made a botch of handling storm Callum. It's now predicted to stay well off shore and just a tightning of gradient over land.
I can't see how an orange warning should apply here. It looks standard bog fare weather event.

Re Cork and floods query earlier.....
Cork rarely floods unless it's preceded by a strong Easterly which has the knock on of backing up the tide!

Interesting views, you don’t think any areas will reach Orange levels? Several models still showing that they will. I guess that adds the question what models and inputs are used to decide on Warning levels.

JanuarySnowstor

The models really all made a botch of handling storm Callum. It's now predicted to stay well off shore and just a tightning of gradient over land.
I can't see how an orange warning should apply here. It looks standard bog fare weather event.

Re Cork and floods query earlier.....
Cork rarely floods unless it's preceded by a strong Easterly which has the knock on of backing up the tide!