Advertisement
If you have a new account but can't post, please email Niamh on [email protected] for help to verify your email address. Thanks :)
New AMA with a US police officer (he's back!). You can ask your questions here

The Weather Warning Discussion/Debate Thread

  • 10-10-2018 3:10pm
    #1
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,102 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    Shiny new thread for discussion/debate on weather warnings!

    Discussion/debate on the pros/cons of the current weather warning system, and general praise/criticism of same will be moved from other threads, to this thread, to avoid clutter and taking other threads off topic.


«1345

Comments

  • Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,097 Mod ✭✭✭✭ cherryghost


    It's swings and roundabouts always. You have a group of people saying the warning wasn't enough, or ME overreacted. Can never please anyone.

    I wonder if they would be happy with a 1-5 alert system instead of a 3 tiered colour system?


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,347 ✭✭✭✭ MJohnston


    It's swings and roundabouts always. You have a group of people saying the warning wasn't enough, or ME overreacted. Can never please anyone.

    I wonder if they would be happy with a 1-5 alert system instead of a 3 tiered colour system?

    I think the UKMO system is a good improvement on ours:

    QGpqayK.png

    I think it could be improved though - instead of the above matrix, do something like this:

    nomjyth.png


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 40,086 ✭✭✭✭ Harry Palmr


    MJohnston wrote: »
    I think the UKMO system is a good improvement on ours:

    QGpqayK.png

    I think it could be improved though - instead of the above matrix, do something like this:

    nomjyth.png


    Ah jasus the more options the greater the confusion. Weather warnings should be as simple and clear as possible. Words actually work best in this regard - the problem with Yellow/Orange/Red is not the words it's how and when they are used. It's best to assume the worst and then change to a lesser level if appropriate.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,347 ✭✭✭✭ MJohnston


    Ah jasus the more options the greater the confusion. Weather warnings should be as simple and clear as possible. Words actually work best in this regard - the problem with Yellow/Orange/Red is not the words it's how and when they are used. It's best to assume the worst and then change to a lesser level if appropriate.

    With respect, I don't think it helps to redefine a problem we've all discussed for years. It'd be good if people proposed some alternatives.

    By the way, this kind of matrix chart would be very easily translated into words:

    "Very high chance of orange level impacts, with a medium chance of lower yellow level impacts."


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,316 ✭✭✭ ZX7R


    Sometimes I think it was more fun when there was no warnings.
    Waking up to a foot of snow,
    A storm out of nowhere frightening the begiesus out of you ect ect.
    As far as the current weather warning goes I think it's quite adequate.
    But they should drop the colour for weather advisories
    That is where confusion comes in .
    The way yellow advisories are completely egnored or mistakingly though to be a yellow warning.
    Keep advisories colour less,
    Keep colour coding to warnings


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 2,384 ✭✭✭ JanuarySnowstor


    The models really all made a botch of handling storm Callum. It's now predicted to stay well off shore and just a tightning of gradient over land.
    I can't see how an orange warning should apply here. It looks standard bog fare weather event.

    Re Cork and floods query earlier.....
    Cork rarely floods unless it's preceded by a strong Easterly which has the knock on of backing up the tide!


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,847 ✭✭✭✭ Villain


    The models really all made a botch of handling storm Callum. It's now predicted to stay well off shore and just a tightning of gradient over land.
    I can't see how an orange warning should apply here. It looks standard bog fare weather event.

    Re Cork and floods query earlier.....
    Cork rarely floods unless it's preceded by a strong Easterly which has the knock on of backing up the tide!

    Interesting views, you don’t think any areas will reach Orange levels? Several models still showing that they will. I guess that adds the question what models and inputs are used to decide on Warning levels.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    i have no issue with the yellow/orange/red system as they usually also tell you what the colour means. I think they need to amend the warning system by county though as counties like Leitrim or Limerick may find themselves on a downgraded colour even though parts of the county experience weather which warrants a higher level.


  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 13,456 Mod ✭✭✭✭ ednwireland


    What's the point of the orange warning everything is still open you still have to go to work so it's no different to putting out a yellow warning. Except that if you get caught out it allows the authorities to say it was an orange warning.
    Warnings are fine but you may get a few people delaying there trip to the shops if there's an orange or you may go out and put a few bits of stuff away outside. No one is going to change their behaviour if your place of work / school/ whatever expects you to be there your going in !
    And joanne donnelly should get a reprimand for sensationalist weather forecasting she should stick to the facts.


  • Registered Users Posts: 632 Rhineshark


    Personally, I am fine with the current system *but* I take Orange warnings seriously and I'm also aware that conditions can deteriorate quickly (or not get as bad as expected) based on a small shift in track so I can and will plan accordingly. I also pay attention to tree and other local conditions (heavy leaves, lots of rain etc)

    I am worried at people saying "oh sure it's only Orange.." though. Orange is serious. Red is "shut down country" time. I don't like the rather cavalier attitude regarding orange warnings that I'm seeing sprouting up. It's a bit like ignoring a Cat 3 on the grounds that ah sure, it's not a 5, y'know?

    I live an isolated rural spot so I don't play around with bad weather conditions and appreciate the colour codes.


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 9,452 ✭✭✭ spookwoman


    The yellow warning is fine its the orange that's a bit of a grey area. Orange wind levels are 1. Wind Mean Speeds between 65 and 80 km/h
    Gusts between 110 and 130 km/h and red is gusts over 130.

    Maybe there should be a category numbering system for orange and the last one would be into the red. Like the cat 1 to 5 for hurricanes but also take into consideration existing soil moisture levels and if trees have leaves. Using the beaufort scale is another idea for storms because using their scale from 10 which is 88.5 up trees are blown over etc and gives a better idea of the damage that can be done.

    Beaufort Wind Scale
    8 --- Fresh gale 39 - 46 mph 62.7 - 74kph Twigs broken off trees, walking against wind very difficult

    9 --- Strong gale 47 - 54 mph 75.6 - 86.9kph Slight damage to buildings, shingles blown off roof

    10 -- Whole gale 55 - 63 mph 88.5 - 101kph Trees uprooted, considerable damage to buildings

    11 -- Storm 64 - 73 mph 102.9 - 117kph Widespread damage, very rare occurrence

    12 -- Hurricane over 73 mph 117kph + Violent destruction


  • Registered Users Posts: 356 ✭✭ Strangegravy


    It's the county lines that create the biggest problem really.

    The western tips of Galway and Mayo might get winds that warrant a Red warning from Storm Callum, but the eastern sides might only be Yellow.

    They should just do a straight or curved linear system, forgetting about county lines, and have red/orange, orange/yellow buffer zones between the warning areas.


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,102 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    It's the county lines that create the biggest problem really.

    The western tips of Galway and Mayo might get winds that warrant a Red warning from Storm Callum, but the eastern sides might only be Yellow.

    They should just do a straight or curved linear system, forgetting about county lines, and have red/orange, orange/yellow buffer zones between the warning areas.

    Agreed....that's the way UKMO do it. Makes a lot of sense.

    Using counties does not make much sense. The weather you might get in Clifden in a storm could be world apart from what might be experienced in Ballinsloe!


  • Registered Users Posts: 632 Rhineshark


    It's the county lines that create the biggest problem really.

    The western tips of Galway and Mayo might get winds that warrant a Red warning from Storm Callum, but the eastern sides might only be Yellow.

    They should just do a straight or curved linear system, forgetting about county lines, and have red/orange, orange/yellow buffer zones between the warning areas.

    Yeah, I agree on that. The weather really doesn't care about county borders below it. And it creates daft issues like the north of Leitrim being yellow surrounded by orange, or the very wide county of Galway really not likely to be orange inland but may be red to the west of the city etc.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,316 ✭✭✭ ZX7R


    Another thing that needs to be addressed is boards weather warnings.
    For example the current tread says level 2 weather warning be prepared.
    The problem I have is if a person is looking at the heading it looks like it's a country wide warning


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,347 ✭✭✭✭ MJohnston


    ZX7R wrote: »
    Another thing that needs to be addressed is boards weather warnings.
    For example the current tread says level 2 weather warning be prepared.
    The problem I have is if a person is looking at the heading it looks like it's a country wide warning


    If posters can't be expected to actually read a little bit of the thread they're seeing those warnings on, we're doomed. I seriously don't think anything about that process needs to change, people need to.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,316 ✭✭✭ ZX7R


    MJohnston wrote: »
    If posters can't be expected to actually read a little bit of the thread they're seeing those warnings on, we're doomed. I seriously don't think anything about that process needs to change, people need to.

    Most don't


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 40,086 ✭✭✭✭ Harry Palmr


    It's the county lines that create the biggest problem really.

    The western tips of Galway and Mayo might get winds that warrant a Red warning from Storm Callum, but the eastern sides might only be Yellow.

    They should just do a straight or curved linear system, forgetting about county lines, and have red/orange, orange/yellow buffer zones between the warning areas.

    I suggested that a while back and got shot down! :)

    edit - something like this

    2K5KA.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,452 ✭✭✭ spookwoman


    MJohnston wrote: »
    If posters can't be expected to actually read a little bit of the thread they're seeing those warnings on, we're doomed. I seriously don't think anything about that process needs to change, people need to.
    Not to mention it is a thread with weather enthusiasts discussing the weather, its not as if its the national weather service.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 796 ✭✭✭ Sycamore Tree


    How did we survive in the 70s and 80s without coloured weather warning processes?
    I don't ever recall my school being shut due to weather and I don't ever remember feeling in any danger walking/cycling to and from school.

    People are shouting Call it Red days before a storm even materialises. We have become awful soft and helpless.


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 733 ✭✭✭ smodgley


    How did we survive in the 70s and 80s without coloured weather warning processes?
    I don't ever recall my school being shut due to weather and I don't ever remember feeling in any danger walking/cycling to and from school.

    People are shouting Call it Red days before a storm even materialises. We have become awful soft and helpless.

    Snowflake society now ( pun intended)


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,347 ✭✭✭✭ MJohnston


    smodgley wrote: »
    Snowflake society now ( pun intended)

    Oh please.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,595 ✭✭✭✭ Beechwoodspark


    I just hope we don’t wake up tomorr realising Met eireann have called it wrong for the second time in a number of weeks


  • Registered Users Posts: 632 Rhineshark


    I just hope we don’t wake up tomorr realising Met eireann have called it wrong for the second time in a number of weeks

    It will absolutely be "wrong" to a certain number of people who won't care or indeed notice that other regions were hit far worse. If they do not personally see trees down, Met Eireann got it wrong. Sure as Christmas.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,386 ✭✭✭ Macy0161


    Rhineshark wrote: »
    It will absolutely be "wrong" to a certain number of people who won't care or indeed notice that other regions were hit far worse. If they do not personally see trees down, Met Eireann got it wrong. Sure as Christmas.
    There's already complaints from areas that weren't under orange on the chat thread!

    As to how we survived in the 70's and 80's, well people did take more personal responsibility, and that included listening to the weather forecast, not just following clickbait facebook headlines from the likes of the journal or joe...


  • Registered Users Posts: 632 Rhineshark


    Macy0161 wrote: »
    There's already complaints from areas that weren't under orange on the chat thread!

    As to how we survived in the 70's and 80's, well people did take more personal responsibility, and that included listening to the weather forecast, not just following clickbait facebook headlines from the likes of the journal or joe...

    Ikr! God forbid anyone else get a warning when they were only yellow and have not woken up in Oz!

    And storms came in with less warning (esp in specific areas) and people occassionally died. Also, there were less cars on the road, travelling in packs at rush hour getting stuck in traffic under tree-lined avenues and less power lines to get downed.


  • Registered Users Posts: 30,422 ✭✭✭✭ Graces7


    ZX7R wrote: »
    Most don't

    Their loss then


  • Registered Users Posts: 30,422 ✭✭✭✭ Graces7


    How did we survive in the 70s and 80s without coloured weather warning processes?
    I don't ever recall my school being shut due to weather and I don't ever remember feeling in any danger walking/cycling to and from school.

    People are shouting Call it Red days before a storm even materialises. We have become awful soft and helpless.

    I remember having to walk five miles home in freezing fog and darkening as the buses had stopped running. |Had the forecast been heeded?


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,673 ✭✭✭ Pretzill


    I think they should do away with the category system of yellow, orange and red and just go back to warning us about the weather. Storm Ali did not have the hype surrounding it, two people died, it was close to a red here. Storm Callum as an orange is just a slightly windy day.

    When you draw a large brush stroke over swathes of the country you will never predict the levels on a more regional level. I would prefer regional weather forecasts in more detail and less of the hype, more of the clear forecasting.


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 8,386 ✭✭✭ Macy0161


    Is it not just that people are just a bit thick? Ignored Ali as it was only orange, went overboard in expectations of Callum, next orange warning they'll ignore it, and rinse and repeat. Rather than actually listen and digest the forecast and have appropriate expectations and reactions*?

    *The media have a massive role to play in this. The Journal, for example, has been hyping Callum all week. I expect they'll fill the weekend about how crap our weather forecasters are...


Advertisement