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The Weather Warning Discussion/Debate Thread

DOCARCH

Shiny new thread for discussion/debate on weather warnings!

Discussion/debate on the pros/cons of the current weather warning system, and general praise/criticism of same will be moved from other threads, to this thread, to avoid clutter and taking other threads off topic.

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prunudo

Macy0161 wrote: »

Is it not just that people are just a bit thick? Ignored Ali as it was only orange, went overboard in expectations of Callum, next orange warning they'll ignore it, and rinse and repeat. Rather than actually listen and digest the forecast and have appropriate expectations and reactions*?

*The media have a massive role to play in this. The Journal, for example, has been hyping Callum all week. I expect they'll fill the weekend about how crap our weather forecasters are...

Never a truer word said regarding the media and inparticular social media.
Prime example is facebook and their targeted ads. All week my girlfriend has been telling me about Storm Callum and red warnings even before it was named offically. Her source was the likes of daily mirror, her.ie, journal etc who were all filling her facebook feed with bull**** stories and half truths. Nothing of the sort on my facebook and I followed the weather develop through the likes of Met.ie, met office, bbc weather and of course this forum.
Inform yourself from trusted sources, make up your own opinion and you won't be too far off with what actually transpires.

Amprodude

The Hype forecast. I thought the way reports were going on, we were going to have roofless houses in the morning. Far from it. They should have known that when it's lashing rain and windy there will never he a dangerous storm then. It be alot different if it wasn't raining. The rain takes the sting out of the storm.

MJohnston

Amprodude wrote: »

The Hype forecast. I thought the way reports were going on, we were going to have roofless houses in the morning. Far from it. They should have known that when it's lashing rain and windy there will never he a dangerous storm then. It be alot different if it wasn't raining. The rain takes the sting out of the storm.

You "thought the way reports were going"? There's your problem. This was an orange level storm for coastal areas and that's what we got.

I don't know why even posters to this forum can't figure out that this means it was never forecast to be as major as some recent storms like Ophelia (which was a nationwide red).

Deedsie

Someone else may have suggested this already, but why dont they do the warnings based on Municipal districts or LEA's even. Some counties are very very big. And the weather in Clonmel and Nenagh could be entirely different for example. So all Tipperary getting a warning is a bit silly.

I am 100% in support of Met Eireann and the warning system. I just think the county division is not the ideal

Amprodude

MJohnston wrote: »

You "thought the way reports were going"? There's your problem. This was an orange level storm for coastal areas and that's what we got.

I don't know why even posters to this forum can't figure out that this means it was never forecast to be as major as some recent storms like Ophelia (which was a nationwide red).

Orange status also existed over counties Cork Kerry Waterford Clare Galway Mayo Donegal feom 10 pm last night to 9am this morning. Orange was orange but it wasn't anywhere close to Ophelia last year and it's the next rate down from that. All it was a bit of wind and loads of rain. Many reporters from what I saw were saying it was the end of the world when it hit. What people will do to sell newspapers or get more people reading their articles/reports. We need not worry about future storms unless they are status red I feel.

MJohnston

Of course it wasn't anywhere close to Ophelia, it wasn't forecast to be! How is this not getting through? Orange is less than red. And when there's only 3 categories, orange can be significantly less than red.

If a storm is pegged as orange level, it means "be prepared". If it is red it means "take action". Theres a huge difference between those two things.

The problem generally right now isn't "political correctness" or "softness" or some other made up nonsense, it's increasing ignorance. If people don't make themselves aware of what these warning levels mean (and they are very clearly explained on the Met Eireann website), then the blame is theirs, not the system. It doesn't take much effort to understand.

Could the system be more impact based, rather than based on strict weather criteria? Absolutely, but it wouldn't cut out the amount of people being completely ignorant.

Amprodude

MJohnston wrote: »

Of course it wasn't anywhere close to Ophelia, it wasn't forecast to be! How is this not getting through? Orange is less than red. And when there's only 3 categories, orange can be significantly less than red.

If a storm is pegged as orange level, it means "be prepared". If it is red it means "take action". Theres a huge difference between those two things.

The problem generally right now isn't "political correctness" or "softness" or some other made up nonsense, it's increasing ignorance. If people don't make themselves aware of what these warning levels mean (and they are very clearly explained on the Met Eireann website), then the blame is theirs, not the system. It doesn't take much effort to understand.

Could the system be more impact based, rather than based on strict weather criteria? Absolutely, but it wouldn't cut out the amount of people being completely ignorant.

I was prepared alright. I had my rainjacket on so that I would not get wet when I went to my car after work last night. This was at most a status yellow storm.

MJohnston

Amprodude wrote: »

This was at most a status yellow storm.

Nope, it wasn't. The criteria are very clear. Go read them.

Harry Palmr

MJohnston wrote: »

Of course it wasn't anywhere close to Ophelia, it wasn't forecast to be! How is this not getting through? Orange is less than red. And when there's only 3 categories, orange can be significantly less than red.

Ah but maybe it was 66.5% orange!

green123

MJohnston wrote: »

Nope, it wasn't. The criteria are very clear. Go read them.

Then the criteria are wrong.

"storm" callum was a complete non event.

Yet another embarrassment for our so called weather "experts".

Pretzill

MJohnston wrote: »

Could the system be more impact based, rather than based on strict weather criteria? Absolutely, but it wouldn't cut out the amount of people being completely ignorant.

No. But I think the system is making the general public more complacent. The hype is dangerous too. But if 15 counties are called out as Orange that says be prepared winds could reach up to x

Call it orange and that's what people see - be more thorough and detailed about regional systems instead of this wide brush stroke. The general public can understand a forecast - What perhaps they don't understand is Storm Ali and Storm Callum both being an Orange warning - I don't think storms should be named either - it all plays into the hype.

Edited to add one of the weather people said it would be a weaker orange for Dublin?? What's that Miwadi now -

DOCARCH

Pretzill wrote: »

I don't think storms should be named either - it all plays into the hype.

You may have hit the nail on the head there. People are very familiar with hurricanes being named. Naming our storms just adds to the hype and people expect hurricane effects!

As a result, you get comments like this....

green123 wrote: »

"storm" callum was a complete non event.

prunudo

DOCARCH wrote: »

You may have hit the nail on the head there. People are very familiar with hurricanes being named. Naming our storms just adds to the hype and people expect hurricane effects!

As a result, you get comments like this....

The fact the list is released at the start of the season also feeds into the hype. The media know the name of the next storm before its even officially named and are calling it out as major event with red warnings 4 or 5 days before it is even due to possibly hit.
You also have slack reporting mixing up weather systems and referring to ex hurricanes that are neither strong enough to cause damage or connected to the system effecting us.

spookwoman

jvan wrote: »

The fact the list is released at the start of the season also feeds into the hype. The media know the name of the next storm before its even officially named and are calling it out as major event with red warnings 4 or 5 days before it is even due to possibly hit.
You also have slack reporting mixing up weather systems and referring to ex hurricanes that are neither strong enough to cause damage or connected to the system effecting us.

I don't think the names are the issue I think it's how the forecast is read is the big problem. At least with a warning of a few days it gives people a chance to prepare, might mean rescheduling work or getting the job done quicker. It also gives parents a chance to organize that the kids may be off school. Same with jobs. Would be a hell of a lot more giving out if people where only told that morning oh a storm is due to hit in the next few hours and the schools are closed etc. It's not a perfect science so not everywhere is going to get orange level weather even if they are in an orange listed area. Better to be safe than sorry.
But there is a responsibility with the weather presenters to not hype it. Out of the presenters I think Jean Byrne and Gerry Murphy are the best, they are not into the drama and speak with level tones and sound like meteorologists. Donnelly is the worst for over hyping the storms.

prunudo

spookwoman wrote: »

I don't think the names are the issue I think it's how the forecast is read is the big problem. At least with a warning of a few days it gives people a chance to prepare, might mean rescheduling work or getting the job done quicker. It also gives parents a chance to organize that the kids may be off school. Same with jobs. Would be a hell of a lot more giving out if people where only told that morning oh a storm is due to hit in the next few hours and the schools are closed etc. It's not a perfect science so not everywhere is going to get orange level weather even if they are in an orange listed area. Better to be safe than sorry.
But there is a responsibility with the weather presenters to not hype it. Out of the presenters I think Jean Byrne and Gerry Murphy are the best, they are not into the drama and speak with level tones and sound like meteorologists. Donnelly is the worst for over hyping the storms.

I agree, the modern way of presenters/dj's reading the weather is part of the problem. 5 word weathers or forecasts with a very general countrywide description of what is due are all part of the problem.

piuswal

Pretzill wrote: »

I think they should do away with the category system of yellow, orange and red and just go back to warning us about the weather. Storm Ali did not have the hype surrounding it, two people died, it was close to a red here. Storm Callum as an orange is just a slightly windy day.

When you draw a large brush stroke over swathes of the country you will never predict the levels on a more regional level. I would prefer regional weather forecasts in more detail and less of the hype, more of the clear forecasting.

The colouring system arose out of the need to have a standardised European widesystem that could be understood by all for any particular country - the Meteoalarm system -by anyone , natives or visitors; particularly so in the age of frequent and widespread international travel.

Amprodude

MJohnston wrote: »

Nope, it wasn't. The criteria are very clear. Go read them.

Criteria was clear. They said Orange status but it was barely Yellow.As it was only was a bit of wet wind.

gozunda

Amprodude wrote: »

Criteria was clear. They said Orange status but it was barely Yellow.As it was only was a bit of wet wind.

And the 30,000 who lost power due to same "bit of wind" etc ? . Lol ...

Rhineshark

gozunda wrote: »

And the 30,000 who lost power due to same "bit of wind" etc ? . Lol ...

It's the usual approach of "it was only a bit of wet wind for ME and I was ofc the person the forecasts were being aimed at so because I didn't see a major storm, the warnings were incorrect."

There seems to be a significant number of people for whom the concept of other people doesn't exist.

Sycamore Tree

gozunda wrote: »

And the 30,000 who lost power due to same "bit of wind" etc ? . Lol ...

I guess it's all relative. Ali left 186,000 people without power and many were without power for days because so many trees had fallen on the lines. I did not see one tree down yesterday on my 30 min drive to work but during Ali I saw about 12 full trees down on the same route not including heavy branches. It was carnage.

Shower Doctor

gozunda wrote: »

And the 30,000 who lost power due to same "bit of wind" etc ? . Lol ...

Trees should be cut down that are near lines. It’s getting stupid now at this stage.

Drumpot

A warning system does not need to be technically accurate to a scientific methodology, it just needs to be able to communicate the clearest message possible to its audience.

I think of it like the way I discuss life assurance and pensions to clients. They seldom pay attention to technical aspects or important elements that effect them. And that’s with people who have hundreds of thousands invested through my company! The most important thing is ultimately that they are aware of risks and have taken appropriate action.

So if I was involved in changing the warning system I would look at simplicity. What do people understand and is there anything I can piggyback on to make the weather warnings more relevant to the general public.

I have an ok grasp of the weather warnings and follow them. But most people don’t , particularly if it’s not a red warning they don’t know difference between yellow and orange.

So why not do something like 1-10 scale. Everybody understands a 1-10 scale in terms of danger or risk. I think the line across the country is good but I would also have a list of each county (because that’s what most people will look at), with a risk potential (5-7), probability and more spefci information on that county. If there is more technical specific information on my area I am more likely to read it. So even if you have 32 counties with the same information I believe more people will even keep an eye on that.

Of course people should make themselves familiar with these systems but the priority should always be safety and communication. That does not require technical and/or a warning system that’s scientifically accurate. (I don’t mean the information isn’t honest or accurate, I mean its not limited to scientific criteria that determines specific events like hurricanes etc). I am struggling to think of an example to explain the point but I suppose it comes from when people were arguing things like “technically that’s not a red warning” or stuff like that. A warning system that’s more simple and less open to debate.

Meteorite58

At the height RTE quoted ESB saying 60,000 customers had power disruption and was down to 850 today but was hoping to be down below 500 by the end of the day.

Harry Palmr

Maybe that alone tells us something about the nature of the "storm". Fixed in a day.

ednwireland

Shower Doctor wrote: »

Trees should be cut down that are near lines. It’s getting stupid now at this stage.

what all of them ? This country has few enough trees

dexter647

Meteorite58 wrote: »

At the height RTE quoted ESB saying 60,000 customers had power disruption and was down to 850 today but was hoping to be down below 500 by the end of the day.

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Maybe that alone tells us something about the nature of the "storm". Fixed in a day.

Or maybe it tells us what a great service the esb and there repair crews provide..

wench

Sycamore Tree wrote: »

I guess it's all relative. Ali left 186,000 people without power and many were without power for days because so many trees had fallen on the lines. I did not see one tree down yesterday on my 30 min drive to work but during Ali I saw about 12 full trees down on the same route not including heavy branches. It was carnage.

Ali taking down so many trees left far fewer vulnerable trees for Callum to fell, even had they been exactly the same intensity.

Amprodude

the ESB saying thousands of homes are without power etc. If they made some bit of an effort to get off their butts and go around and clear trees that are near powerlines so many people wouldn't be without power anytime there are storms. common sense approach.

Amprodude

Rhineshark wrote: »

It's the usual approach of "it was only a bit of wet wind for ME and I was ofc the person the forecasts were being aimed at so because I didn't see a major storm, the warnings were incorrect."

There seems to be a significant number of people for whom the concept of other people doesn't exist.

Well it was disappointing i must say.

Sycamore Tree

wench wrote: »

Sycamore Tree wrote: »

I guess it's all relative. Ali left 186,000 people without power and many were without power for days because so many trees had fallen on the lines. I did not see one tree down yesterday on my 30 min drive to work but during Ali I saw about 12 full trees down on the same route not including heavy branches. It was carnage.

Ali taking down so many trees left far fewer vulnerable trees for Callum to fell, even had they been exactly the same intensity.

Yes indeed and I knew that would be the case. The fact that the trees had also lost most of their leaves (my Ash trees had no leaves left) was a factor too.