Storm Clodagh - 29 November 2015

Storm 10 · 28-11-2015 1:47pm #1

I see an Orange warning posted for tomorrow for Storm Force 10 winds, do we need a new Orange Advisory for these winds

squarecircles · 28-11-2015 2:08pm

Thats out at sea,for now anyways.

Padster90s · 28-11-2015 2:10pm

Yeah, orange marine warning is all I see too. Fairly standard out at sea this time of year.

eastmayo · 28-11-2015 2:28pm

Yellow warning took down from met eirann. I wonder are they updating there warning. Time will tell.

Padster90s · 28-11-2015 2:30pm

Just heard on the radio it will be an orange warning tomorrow.

eastmayo · 28-11-2015 2:41pm

Padster90s wrote: »

Just heard on the radio it will be an orange warning tomorrow.

Ya upgraded to orange now.gusts up to 130 k

Padster90s · 28-11-2015 2:48pm

eastmayo wrote: »

Ya upgraded to orange now.gusts up to 130 k

Seems to be nationwide, warning just says Ireland.

screamer · 28-11-2015 2:52pm

They're always behind the curve we had gusts here in kilkenny yesterday so strong my trampoline was dancing on half it's legs but no mention of wind nada. I take all their nowcasts with a massive dose of salt these days.

Clonmel1000 · 28-11-2015 3:32pm

screamer wrote: »

They're always behind the curve we had gusts here in kilkenny yesterday so strong my trampoline was dancing on half it's legs but no mention of wind nada. I take all their nowcasts with a massive dose of salt these days.

Localised more than national though in fairness. They cant really be expected to forecast every gust in everyone's back garden. And in fairness despite some unwarranted stick here they called November bang on.

maquiladora · 28-11-2015 3:38pm

Meteorological situation at 0900: Active fronts are crossing Ireland in a cold, strong to gale force southwesterly airflow. This will veer westerly and ease a little this evening. Another wave on the Polar Front will deepen as it tracks just to the northwest of Ireland tonight and in over Scotland tomorrow bringing a very strong and for a time a storm force gradient over Ireland Sunday morning

.

Tactical · 28-11-2015 4:10pm

Looking forward to some more "real" weather.

This one seems to have snuck up on us which makes for an otherwise boring weather weekend more interesting

M.T. Cranium · 28-11-2015 4:32pm

The model gradients which peak around 0900h Sunday are not overly impressive looking and this will probably be more of a level one event for most, maybe borderline level two at exposed west coast locations. That's based on 06z guidance, 12z guidance is not on line yet. Based on the current guidance, it looks like maybe 65 kt peak gusts for Mace Head, 55 kt Shannon and 50 kt Dublin. Will check the guidance from 12z runs and reassess.

Any moderator with superpowers could perhaps tag this thread level one for now and change the title to Strong winds likely on Sunday. We could upgrade to level two if the gradient looks stronger.

Oneiric 3 · 28-11-2015 4:43pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

The model gradients which peak around 0900h Sunday are not overly impressive looking and this will probably be more of a level one event for most, maybe borderline level two at exposed west coast locations. That's based on 06z guidance, 12z guidance is not on line yet. Based on the current guidance, it looks like maybe 65 kt peak gusts for Mace Head, 55 kt Shannon and 50 kt Dublin. Will check the guidance from 12z runs and reassess.

I wonder M.T, if the speed of which these waves features are moving at as they race across the Atlantic are adding a 'momentum' to the possible forecast wind speeds that the isobaric gradient may not in itself indicate?

M.T. Cranium · 28-11-2015 5:19pm

^ Reasonable point although I probably factored that into my numbers, the 12z GFS looks about the same -- as long as readers are aware that the situation is likely to be "level one" for most and perhaps level two in exposed parts of the west, for example Galway city might verify at level two but Limerick might be closer to the margin whereas Dublin more likely to be level one at peak.

Aerohead · 28-11-2015 5:52pm

Surely if ME have an orange warning should it not be orange here as well, it seems nonsense that they have one and the amauters among us seem to think they are wrong by putting a yellow warning up, not having a go as I appreciate every poster here and love this forum

squarecircles · 28-11-2015 6:04pm

I think officially its an orange warning i.e met eireann.on here its officially a yellow warning but unofficially an orange warning for exposed western coasts.confused much?

maquiladora · 28-11-2015 6:50pm

~120 km/h gusts possible in a few coastal counties but for most places max gusts 90-100 km/h. So not strong but still enough to knock down a few branches and cause a few power outages here and there. Will zip by quickly though.

Weatherproof79 · 28-11-2015 7:13pm

Curious to know why M.E have gusts up to 130km when the models and posters here think it will be less. Surely they have access to better more in depth info than we have so may be it is warranted to have an Orange warning? Thoughts?

Aerohead · 28-11-2015 7:16pm

On radio for the shipping forecast today Evelyn said the winds could cause structural damage so in my mind it should be orange but who am I to dictate a change of color

Aerohead · 28-11-2015 7:19pm

maquiladora wrote: »

~120 km/h gusts possible in a few coastal counties but for most places max gusts 90-100 km/h. So not strong but still enough to knock down a few branches and cause a few power outages here and there. Will zip by quickly though.

Might zip by quickly but it only takes one violent gust to cause significant damage, remember the roof of the boathouse in Limerick

Duvetdays · 28-11-2015 7:30pm

It's now updated to orange for all of Ireland starting at 6am in the morning. It's quite calm here in Bray but maybe the calm before the storm, love when it's really stormy

maquiladora · 28-11-2015 7:32pm

Aerohead wrote: »

On radio for the shipping forecast today Evelyn said the winds could cause structural damage so in my mind it should be orange but who am I to dictate a change of color

Well the official warning is orange and that is the only one that actually matters in terms of safety issues etc. This is really just a place to discuss the weather, I don't think we should be overly concerned with the title of our threads

Storm 10 · 28-11-2015 7:35pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Well the official warning is orange and that is the only one that actually matters in terms of safety issues etc. This is really just a place to discuss the weather, I don't think we should be overly concerned with the title of our threads

Well Maq this is the one thing that always causes posts , the color of the warnings, it's going to last appx 6 hours according to the forecast just now

Padster90s · 28-11-2015 7:41pm

I'm going to go all mystic meg here, I've a feeling this one could cause s few nasty surprises. It came out of nowhere and has a nationwide orange warning. Hope everyone is safe but I'm looking forward to a few hopefully wild hours tomorrow!

Duvetdays · 28-11-2015 7:47pm

Padster90s wrote: »

I'm going to go all mystic meg here, I've a feeling this one could cause s few nasty surprises. It came out of nowhere and has a nationwide orange warning. Hope everyone is safe but I'm looking forward to a few hopefully wild hours tomorrow!

The orange warning we had last Tuesday week I think. The wind in cherrywood Dublin was unreal. Anybody that knows cherrywood knows it's a wind tunnel at the best of time but last week you could barely walk in it. Fair few big branches and lines down in my area.

Storm 10 · 28-11-2015 7:51pm

Just listening to Shannon ATC and Rescue 118 currently on the way to Galway hospital from Letterkenny, requested permission to a lower altitude over Donegal Bay to avoid a thunderstorm

FWVT · 28-11-2015 8:19pm

Strongest winds tomorrow, as per the TAFs:

Shannon: 33 gust 50 kt, Dublin, Cork and Knock: 30 gust 50 kt.

JCX BXC · 28-11-2015 8:31pm

Named storm tommorow: Clodagh.
When are the 18z models out?

DOCARCH · 28-11-2015 8:38pm

Given we now have a storm name, Clodagh, and the potential for widespread strong winds, with possible storm force gusts, I have decided to upgrade warning to orange, in line with ME.

Padster90s · 28-11-2015 8:42pm

I'm off to Sky News and BBC News to hear them get their tounges around Clodagh!

squarecircles · 28-11-2015 8:53pm

from met.ie

Weather Advisory for Ireland
Clodagh, the third named storm of the extended winter season, will pass eastwards to the north of Ireland on Sunday morning, 29th November. The current Status Orange warning for very strong, westerly winds is a direct result of Clodagh’s evolution. Later Sunday, Clodagh will pass through Scotland and the North Sea towards southern Scandinavia where it is expected to deepen further

ninebeanrows · 28-11-2015 8:55pm

Latest guidance.

75knts exposed western Donegal

c. 65knts Valentia

c. 70kn Mace Head/ Belmullet

c. 60kt Dublin region

ninebeanrows · 28-11-2015 8:55pm

central midlands widespread 55-60.... 65 in western domains

Meteorite58 · 28-11-2015 9:14pm

Looks like most areas will get a taste of strong winds tomorow

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FWVT · 28-11-2015 9:39pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

Latest guidance.

75knts exposed western Donegal

c. 65knts Valentia

c. 70kn Mace Head/ Belmullet

c. 60kt Dublin region

That seems to be way overstating it. I think 60-65 at Mace Head will be the highest around the country. 55-60 at Roche's Point and 50-55 at Dublin at a push.

ninebeanrows · 28-11-2015 9:51pm

FWVT wrote: »

That seems to be way overstating it. I think 60-65 at Mace Head will be the highest around the country. 55-60 at Roche's Point and 50-55 at Dublin at a push.

I am looking at raw 12z ECMWF 10m gust charts.

Now we aren't a million miles away really, but 12z upped thing by 10-15% on the 0z

Storm 10 · 28-11-2015 9:59pm

FWVT wrote: »

That seems to be way overstating it. I think 60-65 at Mace Head will be the highest around the country. 55-60 at Roche's Point and 50-55 at Dublin at a push.

Sure there is only 5knts of a difference in what you are saying that's nothing and it could go any way at this stage

FWVT · 28-11-2015 10:17pm

Storm 10 wrote: »

Sure there is only 5knts of a difference in what you are saying that's nothing and it could go any way at this stage

No, 10 knots on the highest gust. I can't see how we will get 75 knots anywhere apart from mountain tops. The hirlam has 925 hPa winds of around 65-70 kts, but with us in the warm sector and the low in early stages of development there will not be time for any sting jet to form, which is usually when we get our 75-kt+ gusts. The other hi-res models suggest likewise.

I guess we'll all know by this time tomorrow

Padster90s · 28-11-2015 10:25pm

Are all the charts out by now?

Greenmachine · 28-11-2015 10:26pm

Never mind the winds the rain was unbelievable out at THQ today.

ninebeanrows · 28-11-2015 10:31pm

FWVT wrote: »

No, 10 knots on the highest gust. I can't see how we will get 75 knots anywhere apart from mountain tops. The hirlam has 925 hPa winds of around 65-70 kts, but with us in the warm sector and the low in early stages of development there will not be time for any sting jet to form, which is usually when we get our 75-kt+ gusts. The other hi-res models suggest likewise.

I guess we'll all know by this time tomorrow

I'm not saying an Ob station will pick up on a 75.. But i do think an ob station should pick up on a c. 70knot gust.

also.. latest hirlam would not have ingest 12z EC data. 18z should show something more intense

Tactical · 28-11-2015 10:40pm

http://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2015/1128/749875-weather/

JCX BXC · 28-11-2015 10:44pm

Tactical wrote: »

http://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2015/1128/749875-weather/

Hmm, inland areas seem to be expecting a bigger bang than usual.

ninebeanrows · 28-11-2015 10:50pm

Data showing widespread inland gusts from 50-60kts (90-110kph) or 55-65mph

FWVT · 28-11-2015 10:51pm

Here is a comparison of the 00Z and 12Z wind fields at 100 metres for 9 am tomorrow. A slight increase in the 12Z, showing up to 29 m/s (56 kts) off the north coast, a knot or two more than the 00Z.

Yes, it will be interesting to see the 18Z hirlam.

00Z

12Z

maquiladora · 28-11-2015 11:07pm

Peak 10m mean winds on the 18Z HIRLAM are a very brief passage of 85 km/h winds on the exposed northwest coast around 9am.

Oneiric 3 · 28-11-2015 11:13pm

I think it is safe to say that tomorrow morning is going to be windy.

maquiladora · 28-11-2015 11:19pm

Oneiric 3 · 28-11-2015 11:24pm

Met's Hirlam for 06z tomorrow morn.

Wide zone of gales reaching the headlands of the west coast with less organised zones of BF9 contained within the warm sector that will no doubt have an impact later in the morn.

JanuarySnowstor · 28-11-2015 11:33pm

I have to say im not a fan of naming storms this side of the atlantic.
But tomorrow beats all!!

Whoever decided to name tomorrow system should be fired from public service

Xenji · 28-11-2015 11:40pm

Picking up now in Castlebar at the moment, some stray 75 km/hr plus gusts coming in.

Storm Clodagh - 29 November 2015

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