Storm Clodagh - 29 November 2015

ninebeanrows

Latest guidance.

75knts exposed western Donegal

c. 65knts Valentia

c. 70kn Mace Head/ Belmullet

c. 60kt Dublin region

ninebeanrows

central midlands widespread 55-60.... 65 in western domains

Meteorite58

Looks like most areas will get a taste of strong winds tomorow

FWVT

Weathercheck wrote: »

Latest guidance.

75knts exposed western Donegal

c. 65knts Valentia

c. 70kn Mace Head/ Belmullet

c. 60kt Dublin region

That seems to be way overstating it. I think 60-65 at Mace Head will be the highest around the country. 55-60 at Roche's Point and 50-55 at Dublin at a push.

ninebeanrows

FWVT wrote: »

That seems to be way overstating it. I think 60-65 at Mace Head will be the highest around the country. 55-60 at Roche's Point and 50-55 at Dublin at a push.

I am looking at raw 12z ECMWF 10m gust charts.

Now we aren't a million miles away really, but 12z upped thing by 10-15% on the 0z

Storm 10

FWVT wrote: »

That seems to be way overstating it. I think 60-65 at Mace Head will be the highest around the country. 55-60 at Roche's Point and 50-55 at Dublin at a push.

Sure there is only 5knts of a difference in what you are saying that's nothing and it could go any way at this stage

FWVT

Storm 10 wrote: »

Sure there is only 5knts of a difference in what you are saying that's nothing and it could go any way at this stage

No, 10 knots on the highest gust. I can't see how we will get 75 knots anywhere apart from mountain tops. The hirlam has 925 hPa winds of around 65-70 kts, but with us in the warm sector and the low in early stages of development there will not be time for any sting jet to form, which is usually when we get our 75-kt+ gusts. The other hi-res models suggest likewise.

I guess we'll all know by this time tomorrow

Padster90s

Are all the charts out by now?

Greenmachine

Never mind the winds the rain was unbelievable out at THQ today.

ninebeanrows

FWVT wrote: »

No, 10 knots on the highest gust. I can't see how we will get 75 knots anywhere apart from mountain tops. The hirlam has 925 hPa winds of around 65-70 kts, but with us in the warm sector and the low in early stages of development there will not be time for any sting jet to form, which is usually when we get our 75-kt+ gusts. The other hi-res models suggest likewise.

I guess we'll all know by this time tomorrow

I'm not saying an Ob station will pick up on a 75.. But i do think an ob station should pick up on a c. 70knot gust.

also.. latest hirlam would not have ingest 12z EC data. 18z should show something more intense

Tactical

http://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2015/1128/749875-weather/

JCX BXC

Tactical wrote: »

http://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2015/1128/749875-weather/

Hmm, inland areas seem to be expecting a bigger bang than usual.

ninebeanrows

Data showing widespread inland gusts from 50-60kts (90-110kph) or 55-65mph

FWVT

Here is a comparison of the 00Z and 12Z wind fields at 100 metres for 9 am tomorrow. A slight increase in the 12Z, showing up to 29 m/s (56 kts) off the north coast, a knot or two more than the 00Z.

Yes, it will be interesting to see the 18Z hirlam.

00Z


12Z

maquiladora

Peak 10m mean winds on the 18Z HIRLAM are a very brief passage of 85 km/h winds on the exposed northwest coast around 9am.

Oneiric 3

I think it is safe to say that tomorrow morning is going to be windy.

maquiladora

Oneiric 3

Met's Hirlam for 06z tomorrow morn.




Wide zone of gales reaching the headlands of the west coast with less organised zones of BF9 contained within the warm sector that will no doubt have an impact later in the morn.

JanuarySnowstor

I have to say im not a fan of naming storms this side of the atlantic.
But tomorrow beats all!!

Whoever decided to name tomorrow system should be fired from public service

Xenji

Picking up now in Castlebar at the moment, some stray 75 km/hr plus gusts coming in.

Tactical

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

I have to say im not a fan of naming storms this side of the atlantic.
But tomorrow beats all!!

Whoever decided to name tomorrow system should be fired from public service

The public got to submit names for storms in a joint venture between Met Eireann and the UK Met Office.

Out of interest, what irks you regarding the name?

Padster90s

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

I have to say im not a fan of naming storms this side of the atlantic.
But tomorrow beats all!!

Whoever decided to name tomorrow system should be fired from public service

I wouldn't agree with you there. The systems are named when they have the potential to cause disruption. Good chance of power outages tomorrow, sailings probably cancelled and trains will probably we running delayed in case of debris on the line. Roads moving slower with surface floods or fallen branches/trees. Fairly decent chance of disruption for people at a very busy time of year.

Oneiric 3

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

I have to say im not a fan of naming storms this side of the atlantic.
But tomorrow beats all!!

Whoever decided to name tomorrow system should be fired from public service

Can't wait until we get to Storm Phil. Likely to pack a punch, and maybe a kick if you get on the wrong side of it.

Tactical

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Can't wait until we get to Storm Phil. Likely to pack a punch, and maybe a kick if you get on the wrong side of it.

At the rate were running through the list this could be sooner rather than later

Padster90s

My bad JanuarySnowster! Took that post up wrong! Apologies! Clodagh is a step up from Barney!

Padster90s

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Can't wait until we get to Storm Phil. Likely to pack a punch, and maybe a kick if you get on the wrong side of it.

Perhaps a Peggy for the next list?!
https://metrouk2.files.wordpress.com/2010/09/article-1284021821719-0b197dd3000005dc-924713_636x391.jpg

pad199207

Cant believe they normed this clump of cloud! We may aswell start naming showers now!

JCX BXC

Afaik Met Eireann and the Met Office have agreed to name any storm on Orange criteria or higher. The storm is to be strong enough over Ireland (Gusts of 130km/h are fairly strong) and even stronger over Scotland.

corsav6

Xenji wrote: »

Picking up now in Castlebar at the moment, some stray 75 km/hr plus gusts coming in.

Went up a few notches here in Newport in the last hour too.

JanuarySnowstor

pad199207 wrote: »

Cant believe they normed this clump of cloud! We may aswell start naming showers now!

Totally agree it's a joke