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Snow risk Tuesday night in to Wednesday in the midlands and possibly the east

  • 13-01-2013 6:22pm
    #1
    Oarrack Bama
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 142 ✭✭


    Hi all,

    While the models are very uncertain at a relatively short range there is increasing risk of significant snow fall later Tuesday. Both the UKMO and GFS confirm disruptive potential just 66 hrs out. There is enough confidence for a thread on this potential event.

    Only use this thread specifically for Tuesday. A lot of onlookers are no doubt confused about next week and probably very frustrated as well. Lets not make it any more annoying for them.

    Here we are talking about significant disruptive frontal snow fall for a good portion of the country - something not seen in very many years - so it's not nailed yet but certainly potential is there. It may be only as far as the midlands but the east is also at risk. Basically the Atlantic is going to try and do battle with the continental easterlies (and lose). We are in the middle. It's a good examle of the undercutting of cold air being talked about recently. When warm fronts or occlusions come up against a cold block it can give a lot of snow.

    GFS

    gfs-0-66.png?12

    UK Met Office

    UW60-21.GIF?13-18
    We are aware of further frontal snow potential later in the week. For now it's only safe to go this far. Use the other threads for that to keep things sensible for onlookers and other posters.


«1345

Comments

  • #2
    Tom Cruises Left Nut
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,030 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    Yessssss, missed these threads :pac:


  • #3
    ZX7R
    Registered Users Posts: 3,428 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    Would the last time we had propper battle ground snow have been in the mid 80s when the east was affected.


  • #4
    howlinwolf
    Registered Users Posts: 332 ✭✭howlinwolf


    as you said its very uncertain at the moment,do you not think this thread will cause a bit of mass hysteria with people assuming its nailed on esp as its only a few days away.......as anyone thats been following the let it snow thread knows the models are all over the place at best so i personally think its very uncertain....i hope it comes off cause im sick of the mild air pushing the cold back on all the model runs;)


  • #5
    BEASTERLY
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    Good to see the yellow triangle back i suppose, might be giving the game away all the same...

    Im at a loss to see any potential really. 850hpa temps ranging between 0c in the SW to the -4 line clipping the NE of Ulster. Most of the country under -1 or -2. Nowhere near close enough. This is not a continental flow so you would probably need -7c 850hpa temperatures.

    gfs-1-48_qya7.png

    Of course if continuous precipitation is heavy enough there may be a significant evaporative cooling effect. But I cannot see this being enough to overcome 850hpa temperatures about 5 degrees to high.

    Surfave overview... Temps and dewpoints over zero everywhere.
    ukpaneltemp.png

    You haven't actually said why you think the precip will fall as snow, are you just basing this on GFS precip type charts? :confused:


  • #6
    Bejubby
    Closed Accounts Posts: 270 ✭✭Bejubby


    Maybe the use of the word potential in the heading wouldnt go astray.


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  • #7
    whitebriar
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,745 ✭✭✭whitebriar


    BEASTERLY wrote: »
    you haven't actually said why you think the precip will fall as snow, are you just basing this on GFS precip type charts? :confused:
    Trends and blends


  • #8
    Lucreto
    Registered Users Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭Lucreto


    If I learnt anything over the last few years the mild air ALWAYS wins so I am putting little stock in any snow Wednesday or this week in fact.

    I just hope the SSW will start taking effect soon and it will effect us.

    Saying that I will be watching the streetlights just in case.


  • #9
    BEASTERLY
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    whitebriar wrote: »
    Trends and blends

    A forecast based on what the models might show next? Ah yea, a well known professional forecasting technique. Id love to be wrong but I just cannot see much potential for a widespread noteworthy event. Some potential... yes. Not enough to deserve a thread like this... yellow triangle and all! :rolleyes:


  • #10
    Oarrack Bama
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 142 ✭✭Oarrack Bama


    BEASTERLY wrote: »
    You haven't actually said why you think the precip will fall as snow, are you just basing this on GFS precip type charts? :confused:


    No. And if you are trying to prove something preferably you should use charts for the time period specified.

    Undoubtedly the forecast is risky but a lot of people are confused about next week. It's better to narrow down potential periods of snow and concentrate on them rather then the mish mash of contradiction in the model threads about both the short and longer term.

    In terms of Tuesday definitely a proper chance of snow - it depends how far east or west the undercut is - for now it's definitely on. Anyone who can read this chart knows exactly what I mean

    Rukm601.gif


  • #11
    Oarrack Bama
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 142 ✭✭Oarrack Bama


    ECM 12z has under cut slightly further west. Better for the midlands and some western areas. The east would probably miss out if ECM verified. But it's too close to call specifics like that at this stage.


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  • #12
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Oarrack Bama wrote: »

    Undoubtedly the forecast is risky but a lot of people are confused about next week.

    No, they are not, but what I think is confusing is the now ridiculous amount of winter threads that are opened at this point. It is hard to know which one to click. Not going to say you are wrong on calling this, but I really think a thread such as this should not be opened this early, especially considering that this potential is already being discussed in just one of the many other similar threads opened.


  • #13
    Oarrack Bama
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 142 ✭✭Oarrack Bama


    Deep Easterly wrote: »
    Not going to say you are wrong on calling this, but I really think a thread such as this should not be opened this early,


    :D How early do you think is reasonable? We are talking 60 hrs out here. Cross model agreement. GFS/UKMO/ECM all agree at this range.

    All I am doing is trying to make it easy for those who can't read the charts or who just go blank when they read the model thread because they understandably don't understand. What is wrong with that? I think most would appreciate it tbh.

    Can we keep this thread for Tuesday? You needn't help or contribute if you don't want to. I will do it myself.


  • #14
    Mr Bumble
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 489 ✭✭Mr Bumble


    One ramping, one model and one specific would seem like the right mix...bit of mod weeding would fix it...


  • #15
    Larbre34
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,354 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    Deep Easterly wrote: »

    No, they are not, but what I think is confusing is the now ridiculous amount of winter threads that are opened at this point. It is hard to know which one to click. Not going to say you are wrong on calling this, but I really think a thread such as this should not be opened this early, especially considering that this potential is already being discussed in just one of the many other similar threads opened.

    +1. Its become ridiculous, there weren't this many threads for the big events in recent years and for me there is a massive doubt that anywhere but high level areas will see snow in the next 6 days before the atlantic comes in. event thread for a probable non-event


  • #16
    chilipepper
    Registered Users Posts: 78 ✭✭chilipepper


    Fair dues for sticking your neck out and making a forecast oarrack bama.
    Is feidir linn.


  • #17
    BEASTERLY
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    Oarrack Bama wrote: »
    No. And if you are trying to prove something preferably you should use charts for the time period specified.

    Undoubtedly the forecast is risky but a lot of people are confused about next week. It's better to narrow down potential periods of snow and concentrate on them rather then the mish mash of contradiction in the model threads about both the short and longer term.

    In terms of Tuesday definitely a proper chance of snow - it depends how far east or west the undercut is - for now it's definitely on. Anyone who can read this chart knows exactly what I mean

    Rukm601.gif

    Sorry my first chart was 12 hours to early. The chart for the time period you speak of gives -5 850hpa for 40% of the country. We will need lower than that given this is not a continental airflow. It would be good for snow lovers as long as you don't mind traveling to you're nearest mountain range.


  • #18
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Oarrack Bama wrote: »
    :D How early do you think is reasonable?

    Too many threads open man, that is all I am sayin'.


  • #19
    Oarrack Bama
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 142 ✭✭Oarrack Bama


    BEASTERLY wrote: »
    Sorry my first chart was 12 hours to early. The chart for the time period you speak of gives -5 850hpa for 40% of the country. We will need lower than that given this is not a continental airflow. It would be good for snow lovers as long as you don't mind traveling to you're nearest mountain range.

    We will have to agree to disagree. If you don't mind me saying you seem to be working off a blind assumption that we need sub -8 850's for snow. We don't. Consider all the other variables as well. Atlantic fronts meeting cold blocks will always have an element of marginality. I respect your opinion but I don't agree with it on this occasion.:)


  • #20
    BEASTERLY
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    Oarrack Bama wrote: »
    We will have to agree to disagree. If you don't mind me saying you seem to be working off a blind assumption that we need sub -8 850's for snow. We don't. Consider all the other variables as well. Atlantic fronts meeting cold blocks will always have an element of marginality. I respect your opinion but I don't agree with it on this occasion.:)

    Well... Ive posted charts showing dew point and temps above zero everywhere. I do think we need -7/-8c @ 850hpa in this case as we have a maritime airmass in the mix, not pure continental. We also have no cold pool to speak of.


  • #21
    Snowaddict
    Registered Users Posts: 490 ✭✭Snowaddict


    The enthusiasm in opening this thread OB is admirable. However, we need to be very careful not to create alarm over an event that may not actually transpire.

    I would caution against any focus on specific details beyond T+48 at the moment. In this scenario, GFS is indicating some energy heading directly southwards through Ireland and being deflected under the block thereafter. However, the 850HPA Profile and associated parameters are not supportive of widespread snowfall for this particular event as currently modelled, in my opinion.

    Let us see how this develops over the coming 24 Hours.

    Regards,

    SA


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  • #22
    Oarrack Bama
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 142 ✭✭Oarrack Bama


    I am happy with the forecast in the OP. I think it's appropriate. At this stage the only risk is how far east or west the precipitation is over Ireland and thus the snow risk. :)

    @ Beasterly we do have a cold pool of air and it is cold enough.


  • #23
    H2UMrsRobinson
    Registered Users Posts: 777 ✭✭✭H2UMrsRobinson


    I would have to argue that threads are usually self sustaining , if there's a need for a thread it will become apparent by its lifespan and refresh rate. As for confusion, I would also argue that if you can't manage more than 3 threads then how do you function in the real world. IMHO winter threads are like sex - the more the merrier !!!


  • #24
    barney 20v
    Registered Users Posts: 980 ✭✭✭barney 20v


    H2UMrsRobinson wrote: »
    I would have to argue that threads are usually self sustaining , if there's a need for a thread it will become apparent by its lifespan and refresh rate. As for confusion, I would also argue that if you can't manage more than 3 threads then how do you function in the real world. IMHO winter threads are like sex - the more the merrier !!!
    Quality not quantity


  • #25
    H2UMrsRobinson
    Registered Users Posts: 777 ✭✭✭H2UMrsRobinson


    barney 20v wrote: »
    Quality not quantity

    In my experience these are not mutually exclusive - get it where you can and ride the wave my friend!


  • #26
    sumo12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 590 ✭✭✭sumo12


    chilipepper wrote: »
    Fair dues for sticking your neck out and making a forecast oarrack bama.
    Is feidir linn.

    +1

    Big call. I have no technical knowledge but just by forecast watching and listening to you guys on here (mood swings worse than my wife) and other discussions there seems to be a lot of uncertainty. OP there's a pint of plain from me if you're right!


  • #27
    omicron
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 837 ✭✭✭omicron


    Oarrack Bama wrote: »
    We will have to agree to disagree. If you don't mind me saying you seem to be working off a blind assumption that we need sub -8 850's for snow. We don't. Consider all the other variables as well. Atlantic fronts meeting cold blocks will always have an element of marginality. I respect your opinion but I don't agree with it on this occasion.:)

    I'm inclined to agree with Beasterly here, the potential isn't really there for snow, no real cold pool here and a maritime airmass.

    I also think it's a bit premature for a thread, the forum becomes 'the boy who called wolf' very quickly if alarmist threads like this are opened.

    Edit: The title is ridiculous, it's phrased as a certain forecast for midlands snow, not a very slight chance of it.
    Also, the 528 dam line doesn't even cross the country for the forecast period, so where is this snow forecast coming from?!!! Needs a big turnaround from the models if this is to verify.


  • #28
    Calibos
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,810 ✭✭✭Calibos


    I feel another Xmas 2009 battle scenario coming on. That was 48 hours of rain unfortunately.

    [ posted from my 3g iPad ;) ]


  • #29
    tylercollins
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 845 ✭✭✭tylercollins


    uksnowrisk.png


  • #30
    downwiththatsor
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 915 ✭✭✭downwiththatsor


    BBC Countryfile forecast going for rain for ireland and delaying it till Thursday


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  • #31
    snaps
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,138 ✭✭✭snaps


    Nothing mentioned or shown on the countryfile weather forecast on BBC just now. Showing the battle between mild and cold air. You can guess where the mild air is!
    Battleground over Wales.


  • #32
    downwiththatsor
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 915 ✭✭✭downwiththatsor


    snaps wrote: »
    Nothing mentioned or shown on the countryfile weather forecast on BBC just now. Showing the battle between mild and cold air. You can guess where the mild air is!
    Battleground over Wales.
    Fingers croosed for Oarrack and others that the battleground moves west


  • #33
    Oarrack Bama
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 142 ✭✭Oarrack Bama


    snaps wrote: »
    Battleground over Wales.

    Very much over Ireland ;) Probably still working off 00z models because the latest suggest it's further west as on the ECM for example.

    130113_1200_66.png

    130113_1200_66.png

    There is a growing risk for Tuesday no doubt about it.


  • #34
    Pangea
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    snaps wrote: »
    Nothing mentioned or shown on the countryfile weather forecast on BBC just now. Showing the battle between mild and cold air. You can guess where the mild air is!
    Battleground over Wales.

    It showed the cold air pushing the mild air well west past Ireland on friday


  • #35
    Villain
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,951 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    Countryfile forecast had us on the mild side all week but it's very marginal and any forecast beyond 24hrs is going to change a lot with each set of models.


  • #36
    oterra
    Registered Users Posts: 230 ✭✭oterra


    I don't think this is a certainty, maybe a 10% chance and probably will happen over the UK.
    I was surprised to see this thread! This subject should really be in the Ramping thread!!!!


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  • #37
    Saganist
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,333 ✭✭✭Saganist


    Anyone got a link to Countryfile forecast ?


  • #38
    Slashermcguirk
    Registered Users Posts: 1,996 ✭✭✭Slashermcguirk


    I wouldn't take much notice of bbc forecasts, they concentrate on UK and tend to be wrong when predicting for republic of Ireland. Even in November / December 2010, they consistently had east of Ireland missing out on snow and we ended up getting more than a lot of the UK, up to 30 -35 cm of snow in parts of the east, not to mention the huge amounts in Wicklow mountains, it was like an alpine ski resort up there! In fact i think there was lying snow for nearly four weeks. Naturally BBC focus is on UK, it is best not to go by their forecasts from what I have seen before.

    Either way, the next 24 hours will tell us a lot. This potential event on Tuesday night / Wednesday is a tough one to call


  • #39
    Kippure
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,186 ✭✭✭Kippure


    Saganist wrote: »
    Anyone got a link to Countryfile forecast ?

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056854189


  • #40
    Busted Flat.
    Registered Users Posts: 4,003 ✭✭✭Busted Flat.


    Try accuweather.com, and put in your area. Quite accurate, for forcaster's.


  • #41
    starskey77
    Registered Users Posts: 143 ✭✭starskey77


    how long cold snap lasting i hate snow


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  • #42
    BEASTERLY
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    UK fax chart for Wednesday at 12 UTC. 528 dam line over Wales. Not looking good!

    PPVK89.png


  • #43
    tomcosgrave
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 327 ✭✭tomcosgrave


    I have to say I don't see the snow myself. Maybe dusting at best.


  • #44
    BEASTERLY
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    starskey77 wrote: »
    how long cold snap lasting i hate snow

    6-8 weeks. Possibly could moderate around 3 weeks time for 4 or 5 days.


  • #45
    Busted Flat.
    Registered Users Posts: 4,003 ✭✭✭Busted Flat.


    BEASTERLY wrote: »
    6-8 weeks. Possibly could moderate around 3 weeks time for 4 or 5 days.

    1947, started last week in January and lasted two months approx.


  • #46
    mickger844posts
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,467 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    Looking at the models and forecasts i can't see this happening unless things change in the next 24 hrs or so. We all hope for some action this week but i won't be holding out much hope.


  • #47
    Iancar29
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Sorry folks , i have to agree with others here , but on CURRENT charts , this event will not happen , only above 350 m...

    yours sincerely ... a fellow Snow lover.


  • #48
    FWVT
    Closed Accounts Posts: 922 ✭✭✭FWVT


    This thread's an obvious darkman thread, complete with yellow warning triangle and all. He's made it back in somehow!

    The charts posted as evidence don't back up the claims. Hard to see how it can be classed as anything more than purely a wishcast that the models will push the cold back westwards, but on the evidence shown it cannot be anything more than that.


  • #49
    whitebriar
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,745 ✭✭✭whitebriar


    I never gave an opinion on tuesday or wenesday,I actually thought I'd added a question mark to my last post.
    I do think somethings up though and there is potential for some areas to see potentially a lot of snow this week whilst others have rain.

    The likes of this thread is meant to be a bit of fun as much as anything.
    The antagonisers posting should really get a life or just relax,there's no need to be aiming fire at the op,making an effort at his hobby :mad:

    cue roll eye smiley's and more antagonism now I s'pose,quit it folks,no ones listening to that only yourselves,the rest of us are here to enjoy the ride :)
    Life and death isn't happening because there's a few threads in the weather forum.


  • #50
    Oarrack Bama
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 142 ✭✭Oarrack Bama


    BEASTERLY wrote: »
    UK fax chart for Wednesday at 12 UTC. 528 dam line over Wales. Not looking good!

    Nothing wrong with that. It's fine. We don't need sub 528 DAM for snow in this situation.


  • #51
    fr wishy washy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 882 ✭✭✭fr wishy washy


    Iancar29 wrote: »
    Sorry folks , i have to agree with others here , but on CURRENTS charts , this event will not happen , only above 350 m...

    yours sincerely ... a fellow Snow lover.

    Great I seem to be at 650m here in West Wicklow


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