€25k invested in prize bonds

Another €50 for me today from the Big Bunch.

Prize Value Winning Prize Bond Location

€50 MC933124 Louth

5084 €50 prizes every week in March, up from 5050 in February.

A fair sprinkling of two letter prefixes today in the €1,000 and €500 winners. And the €50K went to a DJ bond in Galway from before the Euro.

But three letter winners now well outweigh the two and one letters. Even though they only started in July 2015 with the first AAA. It shows how much money has flowed into the fund in the last few years. The newest winner today is AQW567858.

2899 three letter winners today out of 5105, which is close on 57%. The other 43% are bonds dating back from mid 2015 to 1957.

carrickbawn wrote: »

When I had totally given up hope and not even bothering to check some weeks,up pops a winner today. €50 euro from a small batch bought in October.
Better than nothing.

Hopefully it's the start of a good run for you carrickbawn - you have waited long enough!

Winnings on 6th March €50
Last win: 28th February €100 (2x€50)
Weeks since last win: 1

2017 (Jul-Dec) - €100k – 7x€50 = €350
2018 (Jan-Dec) - €200k – 12x€50 = €600
2019 (Jan-Dec) - €250k – 20x€50 = €1,000
2020 (Jan-Mar) - €252k - 7x€50 = €350

STILL nothing for me.

Will be withdrawing the 20K by the end of the year.
Haven't won a cent since 2018.

€3.5B total with 560,000,000 worth of bonds.

Dont know if i seen a day this bad even in 2007

tuisginideach wrote: »

I'd love to see the general run of bonds which are winning for you - could you screenshot your 'Find Winners' list and show us - just to see the age of the various bonds?

As promised (twelve months later) I finally did some work on this, looking at winnings vs holdings

Batch Name|Purchased|Bonds in Batch|2017 Wins|2018 Wins|2019 Wins|2020 Wins|Total Wins
|||||||
Large||||||||
KK861|2009/Apr|800|2||1||3
AIC95|2017/Aug|8,000|2|3|3|2|10
AID61|2017/Aug|3,200||2|2||4
AID82|2017/Aug|1,600|1||||1
AIV76|2017/Oct|8,000|1|4|6|1|12
AIW28|2017/Oct|8,000||1|4|2|7
AJI32|2017/Dec|960||1|||1
AMT48|2018/Dec|8,000||1|3|2|6
Sub Total||38,560|6|12|19|7|44
|||||||
Small|||||||
AHO89|2017|40|1||||1
AMM42|2018|8|||1||1
Other*95|Various|1,728|||||
Sub Total||1,776|1||1||2
|||||||
Total||40,336|7|12|20|7|46

Overall Conclusion
My winning experience (total portfolio) in 2018 was .30% (€600/€200,000) and in 2019 it was .40% (€1,000/€250,000) which is broadly in line with the .34% return postulated by dxhound2005. This return starts to become reasonably reliable once the batch size reaches 8,000 bonds (€50K) but 16,000 bonds (€100k) would be better again. (I'm beyond doing the standard deviation calculations necessary to work out the actual probability and margin of error). The smaller batches, 3,200 bonds (€20k) and below, are very unreliable when it comes to a return, falling firmly into the "all duck or no dinner" bucket

Notes/Comments
[*]All prizes were €50
[*]The "Other*95" line represents an additional 95 batches (certificates) dated between 2000 and 2019, each being for between 4 and 40 bonds. These are the result of recurring DD purchases and reinvestment of winnings. None of these had winnings during the period 2017-2020
[*]Prizes prior to 2017 excluded
[*]All winnings reinvested
[*]No single bond number won on two or more occasions
[*]One reinvested winning went on to win (Win reinvested in Oct 2014 won in Apr 2015) so outside the time period I am analysing but worth mentioning
[*]I hold another block of approx 900 bonds which are exclude from the above. This batch contains a mix of very old bonds and some newer ones. These won €50 in the period 2017-2020

And for the conspiracy theorists among us:
[*]The win rate in the 97 small batches (in total) appears to be in line with the win rate in the large batches
[*]Older bonds appear to be as likely to win as newer ones


I'd be interested in any feedback.

It took a bit of manual editing to make the auto-generated table legible, so apologies if I introduced any errors in the figures while doing this

2019 is the first year on their chart with the full €252K. 20 wins is not much above what I would expect with average luck. What is less likely is that they will continue the average for 2020, 7 wins in the first 10 draws. That would give 35 wins in the year.

Then again pbwinner got 6 wins with €25K in 2019, so 60 wins for Hibernicis could be possible this year.

dxhound2005 wrote: »

......so 60 wins for Hibernicis could be possible this year.

I wouldn't want that, it would be far too greedy and I'd be denying my friends here their fair share of prizes. Based on 20 wins in 2019 I'd settle for 21 this year, that is 20x€50 and the 1x€1m in December (or June, I'm not the fussy type)


My win pattern this year to date has been very odd:

10-Jan-20 - 3x€50
17-Jan-20 - 1x€50
28-Feb-20 - 2x€50
06-Mar-20 - 1x€50 (not included in the above calcs)

I'd agree that that is not sustainable.

tuisginideach wrote: »

and again and again :(:(:(

and again and again and again:(:(:(:(

No Joy.

2020
Jan: :mad::mad::mad::mad::mad:
Feb: :mad::mad::mad:
Mar: :mad::mad:

tobdom wrote: »

30k in bonds purchased mid to late Jan, so in for about the last 4 or 5 draws..... €50 won today!
Long may it continue!! (I'm aware it won't, based on this thread)

Nothing more since this, but also haven't received this payout yet.... would that be unusual? How long typically between the draw and payout to bank accounts?

tobdom wrote: »

Nothing more since this, but also haven't received this payout yet.... would that be unusual? How long typically between the draw and payout to bank accounts?

In my one win this year, the money was in on the Friday afternoon I think - or certainly before Monday. Did you get the letter notifying you re the win?

Back to the usual “Sorry “ message.