Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

rangler1 · 23-05-2016 03:08PM

orm0nd wrote: »

and more than 1

http://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/what-average-price-can-dairy-farmers-expect-over-the-next-five-years/

I got lacerated on here last year for preaching "doom and gloom" :rolleyes:

there are none so blind as those who will not see.

Very true, you'd want to be blind to think the present scenario is the same as the last price slump, even the fact that farmers didn't increase supply the last time would've helped to steady the price on it's own

Farmer Ed · 23-05-2016 03:33PM

How on earth could harvest 2020 have been presented to us as something that was going to make us all rich. All the talk of white gold and all the over investment in over priced stainless steel. All the contracts to get farmers to secure the loans for the stainless steel.
A lot of you may not like ming
But as every day goes by, increasingly his prediction of this being Coveneys property bubble looks like pretty fair comment.

Sam Kade · 23-05-2016 03:38PM

All this nonsense about overpopulation and not being able to feed them is some baloney. Amazing how they must always have some imminent danger.

Sam Kade · 23-05-2016 03:42PM

Farmer Ed wrote: »

How on earth could harvest 2020 have been presented to us as something that was going to make us all rich. All the talk of white gold and all the over investment in over priced stainless steel. All the contracts to get farmers to secure the loans for the stainless steel.
A lot of you may not like ming
But as every day goes by, increasingly his prediction of this being Coveneys property bubble looks like pretty fair comment.

White gold is right and a bottle of water selling for more than a bottle of milk.

Waffletraktor · 23-05-2016 03:54PM

Sam Kade wrote: »

All this nonsense about overpopulation and not being able to feed them is some baloney. Amazing how they must always have some imminent danger.

Whenever some supposedly educated person with a few letters before their name mentions food shortage etc, my mind tends to wander to Up or the Simpsons when homer goes to college and see's a squirrel outside. There is few shortages just terrible food waste and distribution.

Dawggone · 23-05-2016 04:25PM

Waffletraktor wrote: »

There's your lowest cost and there's what I term your sustainable lowest cost. 5-10 years time all the niggly neglected things like shed painting/fencing needing more than sticky plaster patching/replacing gates does catch up. Same with renting out land really, all theses things will come full circle.

+1.
Surviving and persevering for long prolonged periods is not really sustainable because constant investment is needed or the land and facilities will run down.
Someone posted here lately about having to invest and build during quota years, and I'll pretty much guarantee that the Xbox generation won't slave like that. Why should they?

jaymla627 · 23-05-2016 04:43PM

Dawggone wrote: »

+1.
Surviving and persevering for long prolonged periods is not really sustainable because constant investment is needed or the land and facilities will run down.
Someone posted here lately about having to invest and build during quota years, and I'll pretty much guarantee that the Xbox generation won't slave like that. Why should they?

It's a scary prospect at the minute that if a farmer is being 100% honest with his children he'll tell them to forget about this farming lark get yourself a 9-5 job and please don't look back....
If as predicted we have a long cycle of low commodity prices throughout farming for the next couple of years with all confidence and hope drained from farmers where is the next generation to take the reins going to come from all well and good saying technology/increased productivity will make up for the labour shortfall but all this costs money and who in their right mind will invest/borrow big to plough it into a loss making enterprise

pedigree 6 · 23-05-2016 04:44PM

Sam Kade wrote: »

White gold is right and a bottle of water selling for more than a bottle of milk.

Bottle your water. Problem solved.
Isn't there some company even bottling mains water.
Who knows this time next year the country could be drinking Sam's spring water.

Dawggone · 23-05-2016 04:58PM

jaymla627 wrote: »

It's a scary prospect at the minute that if a farmer is being 100% honest with his children he'll tell them to forget about this farming lark get yourself a 9-5 job and please don't look back....
If as predicted we have a long cycle of low commodity prices throughout farming for the next couple of years with all confidence and hope drained from farmers where is the next generation to take the reins going to come from all well and good saying technology/increased productivity will make up for the labour shortfall but all this costs money and who in their right mind will invest/borrow big to plough it into a loss making enterprise

I wouldn't allow any son or daughter to farm. No way.
They can sell it and divide the spoils...if I don't have it blown on coke and hookers!

pedigree 6 · 23-05-2016 05:44PM

Plenty doom and gloom on here and rightly so but everyone knows their own situation and how they can survive this.
Whether that be what bps their getting, cost cutting, off farm income or additional enterprises on the farm.
This turning of milk into a commodity has happened because of WTO talks and free trade. Maybe the loonies protesting were right all along. How Ireland could manage being an exporting country without who knows. It saddens me of the work/talk that Bord Bia do of our green image and cows at grass and i hasten to add saying of our small farms when at trade expos and of our stringent regulations as best in the world and then when it comes to the price I receive that I should get the base world price or 3 cents more.

What we have atm is a race to the bottom now with milk price around the world with the U.S. still insulated and nz/aus waiting for production to drop in Europe can't see it happening and the big hope of Ireland China are producing their own food from abroad using money made with the click of a mouse. (China will/are big players in the world's agri food/business all things agri and rights passing out the U.S. )
What does it mean for us here and our commodity pricing? Who knows we'll tough it out till we get get a few more crumbs.

Maybe kowtow is right. There's a company near me Killowen yoghurt that is expanding and sells for a premium all done in house from milking the cow to making the product and now sells in Dubai. Maybe for some people like myself that's the way forward or maybe I'll get a few thoroughbred horses.

kowtow · 23-05-2016 07:08PM

Sam Kade wrote: »

All this nonsense about overpopulation and not being able to feed them is some baloney. Amazing how they must always have some imminent danger.

It's a bit hypocritical of me to pick holes in the big global free markets thing, but why food? Why can't Ireland take on some some other consequence of global population growth... the increase in worldwide bowel movements, for example, or the expanding need for funerals? Why aren't we getting rich handling the world's ever expanding s**tpile, or growing the wood for coffins?

When we talk about food security, whose security are we talking about? We'd have to knock a fair dent in dairy industry for Cork to run short of emergency milk powder....

The reality is that we have all, ever so gently, allowed ourselves to become small cogs in a massively over-complicated machine which in order to survive and grow - must constantly re-invent, re-distribute, repackage something as basic and fundamental to our own nature as the food we put in our mouths.

The only thing we are really feeding is the food industry, and we're getting poor and losing our self-respect doing it.

Farmer Ed · 23-05-2016 07:12PM

kowtow wrote: »

It's a bit hypocritical of me to pick holes in the big global free markets thing, but why food? Why can't Ireland take on some some other consequence of global population growth... the increase in worldwide bowel movements, for example, or the expanding need for funerals? Why aren't we getting rich handling the world's ever expanding s**tpile, or growing the wood for coffins?

When we talk about food security, whose security are we talking about? We'd have to knock a fair dent in dairy industry for Cork to run short of emergency milk powder....

The reality is that we have all, ever so gently, allowed ourselves to become small cogs in a massively over-complicated machine which in order to survive and grow - must constantly re-invent, re-distribute, repackage something as basic and fundamental to our own nature as the food we put in our mouths.

The only thing we are really feeding is the food industry, and we're getting poor and losing our self-respect doing it.

Well said.

Dawggone · 23-05-2016 07:36PM

kowtow wrote: »

It's a bit hypocritical of me to pick holes in the big global free markets thing, but why food? Why can't Ireland take on some some other consequence of global population growth... the increase in worldwide bowel movements, for example, or the expanding need for funerals? Why aren't we getting rich handling the world's ever expanding s**tpile, or growing the wood for coffins?

When we talk about food security, whose security are we talking about? We'd have to knock a fair dent in dairy industry for Cork to run short of emergency milk powder....

The reality is that we have all, ever so gently, allowed ourselves to become small cogs in a massively over-complicated machine which in order to survive and grow - must constantly re-invent, re-distribute, repackage something as basic and fundamental to our own nature as the food we put in our mouths.

The only thing we are really feeding is the food industry, and we're getting poor and losing our self-respect doing it.

Lol.
Top class!

Timmaay · 23-05-2016 07:39PM

kowtow wrote: »

Sam Kade wrote: »

All this nonsense about overpopulation and not being able to feed them is some baloney. Amazing how they must always have some imminent danger.

It's a bit hypocritical of me to pick holes in the big global free markets thing, but why food? Why can't Ireland take on some some other consequence of global population growth... the increase in worldwide bowel movements, for example, or the expanding need for funerals? Why aren't we getting rich handling the world's ever expanding s**tpile, or growing the wood for coffins?

When we talk about food security, whose security are we talking about? We'd have to knock a fair dent in dairy industry for Cork to run short of emergency milk powder....

The reality is that we have all, ever so gently, allowed ourselves to become small cogs in a massively over-complicated machine which in order to survive and grow - must constantly re-invent, re-distribute, repackage something as basic and fundamental to our own nature as the food we put in our mouths.

The only thing we are really feeding is the food industry, and we're getting poor and losing our self-respect doing it.

This video sums up where the global food industry is heading.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=enwU5jIXSlU

Buford T. Justice XIX · 23-05-2016 07:45PM

kowtow wrote: »

It's a bit hypocritical of me to pick holes in the big global free markets thing, but why food? Why can't Ireland take on some some other consequence of global population growth... the increase in worldwide bowel movements, for example, or the expanding need for funerals? Why aren't we getting rich handling the world's ever expanding s**tpile, or growing the wood for coffins?

When we talk about food security, whose security are we talking about? We'd have to knock a fair dent in dairy industry for Cork to run short of emergency milk powder....

The reality is that we have all, ever so gently, allowed ourselves to become small cogs in a massively over-complicated machine which in order to survive and grow - must constantly re-invent, re-distribute, repackage something as basic and fundamental to our own nature as the food we put in our mouths.

The only thing we are really feeding is the food industry, and we're getting poor and losing our self-respect doing it.

It's job security that we are protecting but not ours.

I was at a seminar last year and one of the speakers said that each farmer was keeping close to two other people employed, between lorry drivers, mart employees, meat and milk factory employees, quality control, vets, dept officials, delivery drivers etc, etc, etc.

If meat and milk supplies dropped tomorrow morning, what would happen all those underemployed people in the system?

Paddy and Mary Farmer will have to pay their severence packages before they themselves get a rise in what they're selling.

It's the system that's fcuked and there's nobody going to fix it.

kowtow · 23-05-2016 08:07PM

Buford T. Justice V wrote: »

It's the system that's fcuked and there's nobody going to fix it.

I don't think it's all bad though. The reconnection with real food, and in particular with local food, is not a mirage. Most trends swing like a pendulum - and maybe we've reached peak processed food.

My Mother makes bread daily, and cakes - but I didn't expect my teenage daughter to be more interested in baking than she is in boys (this won't last)... and which one of us expected them to dust off Mary Berry for another trip round the lighthouse? It might be a small move to begin with, but I reckon the customer is beginning to care again about what they put in their mouths.

Will farmers be agile enough to respond or will we be caught behind the times and taken advantage of? - look at the news channels this week.

Sky News is running a loop about nutritionists & newly engaged consumers crying out for full fat, real food produced on real farms.

While every farming news outlet is copying and pasting press releases from quangos to persuade us to merge all the processors into one and make cheaper "value added" powder.

Farmer Ed · 23-05-2016 08:21PM

Timmaay wrote: »

This video sums up where the global food industry is heading.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=enwU5jIXSlU

It has become a race to the bottom

Buford T. Justice XIX · 23-05-2016 09:00PM

kowtow wrote: »

I don't think it's all bad though. The reconnection with real food, and in particular with local food, is not a mirage. Most trends swing like a pendulum - and maybe we've reached peak processed food.

My Mother makes bread daily, and cakes - but I didn't expect my teenage daughter to be more interested in baking than she is in boys (this won't last)... and which one of us expected them to dust off Mary Berry for another trip round the lighthouse? It might be a small move to begin with, but I reckon the customer is beginning to care again about what they put in their mouths.

Will farmers be agile enough to respond or will we be caught behind the times and taken advantage of? - look at the news channels this week.

Sky News is running a loop about nutritionists & newly engaged consumers crying out for full fat, real food produced on real farms.

While every farming news outlet is copying and pasting press releases from quangos to persuade us to merge all the processors into one and make cheaper "value added" powder.

I hope you're right, kowtow, but from my experience, the vast majority of consumers only care if something is on the news because of a scare and, as soon as the scare is gone, revert to their usual pattern of consumption.

The funny thing is that the vast majority of food scares are caused outside the farm gate but the only one to take a long term hit on price is the farmer.

Ah, look, I'm pretty pi$$ed off with the whole sector atm so ignore my ranting:(

atlantic mist · 23-05-2016 09:57PM

research in australia is after coming up with something to preserve liquid milk for 100 days

australian consumers now boycotting supermarket branded milk to support local farmers, would be a start for our coops to refuse to supply supermarket branded product

arla encouraging suppliers to go gmo free, french encouraging to go organic, were being encouraged to consolidate and milk more...lets keep things the same and do them bigger

uth out on continent is now seen as another commodity, it was value added a few years ago

can we not process the milk out of our milk and bottle it as the most filtered water one can buy??

these nutritionists these days seem to have completely different views, funny how we have the nutrition of animals to a tee across the world but we cant figure out how to get it right in us humans

considereing were over producing everything its probable a good thing gmo isnt widespread across eu

Dawggone · 23-05-2016 10:19PM

atlantic mist wrote: »

research in australia is after coming up with something to preserve liquid milk for 100 days

australian consumers now boycotting supermarket branded milk to support local farmers, would be a start for our coops to refuse to supply supermarket branded product

arla encouraging suppliers to go gmo free, french encouraging to go organic, were being encouraged to consolidate and milk more...lets keep things the same and do them bigger

uth out on continent is now seen as another commodity, it was value added a few years ago

can we not process the milk out of our milk and bottle it as the most filtered water one can buy??

these nutritionists these days seem to have completely different views, funny how we have the nutrition of animals to a tee across the world but we cant figure out how to get it right in us humans

considereing were over producing everything its probable a good thing gmo isnt widespread across eu

+1...
"...can we not process the milk out of our milk..."

..." nutrition of animals down to a tee...and can't figure it out how to get it right with humans..."

There maybe something in the 'terroir, provenance, and local *food*' that Kowtow speaks of.
I posted somewhere on French white meat. The Italians are also very 'close' to their food also.

The video 'Food Inc' that Tim posted is worth a watch.

Hopefully the pendulum will swing and allow me (as a hamster) to get off the wheel.

Food as nourishment........imagine that.

kowtow · 23-05-2016 10:35PM

Dawggone wrote:

The video 'Food Inc' that Tim posted is worth a watch.

Also worth reading Pollan? "The omnivores dilemma"... part of which is set on Joel salatins farm which I think appears in food Inc... it's the one with the open air chicken slaughterhouse.

Sam Kade · 23-05-2016 11:15PM

pedigree 6 wrote: »

Bottle your water. Problem solved.
Isn't there some company even bottling mains water.
Who knows this time next year the country could be drinking Sam's spring water.

The water from Sam's well tastes way better than that bottled sh1te in the shops

Milked out · 24-05-2016 12:12AM

http://m.newsok.com/article/5499573?utm_source=NewsOK.com&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=ShareBar-Twitter

Sam Kade · 24-05-2016 01:07PM

When white gold turned to fools gold.

kowtow · 24-05-2016 04:01PM

So what do we make of these liquidity loans they are droning on about - from agriland's latest article it seems that:

1. If you are reducing production or freezing it, the €15,000 could be turned into a grant

or

2. If you aren't, it's a loan or more probably a guarantee (most likely in favour of the co-op?). Maybe an interest payment.

The cynic in me observes that if the only thing keeping Irish farms afloat is the relatively low debt level, adding loans (whether milkflex or this one) seems a bit like the RNLI turning up and shooting the liferaft - but leaving that aside isn't option (1) actually just a payment to hold / reduce production? Will the terms be easy to get around? Miss a milking on a Sunday and cash the cheque on Monday?

It's a pity I don't supply a co-op because at this stage if I qualified as an actual dairy farmer I'd be way ahead already.

whelan2 · 24-05-2016 04:06PM

George Lee was on the news at one on rte. The average dairy farmer only has loans of 60k. Can't remember the exact figure but a sizeable amount have no loans. They were talking about the Teagasc Figure for different farming enterprises for 2015. He also kept emphasising that the 2016 dairy figure will be crap

pedigree 6 · 24-05-2016 04:35PM

whelan2 wrote: »

George Lee was on the news at one on rte. The average dairy farmer only has loans of 60k. Can't remember the exact figure but a sizeable amount have no loans. They were talking about the Teagasc Figure for different farming enterprises for 2015. He also kept emphasising that the 2016 dairy figure will be crap

If the average farmer has loans of 60k and others have none.
I wonder what the top amount that some farmers have borrowed.
Averages hide a lot.
Also I wonder does teagasc average dairy income include the total income on a 300 cow herd and say 3 people get a wage from it. But if teagasc do it on a per farm basis thus skewing the figures to an average dairy farmer.

pedigree 6 · 24-05-2016 04:41PM

Since when are pig farmers milking cows.

Maybe they are I don't know.

Truly Irish are a pig farmer co-op set up to sell their own produce.
Truly Irish is now selling Truly Irish butter and cheese.
Where's it coming from?

browned · 24-05-2016 05:06PM

whelan2 wrote: »

George Lee was on the news at one on rte. The average dairy farmer only has loans of 60k. Can't remember the exact figure but a sizeable amount have no loans. They were talking about the Teagasc Figure for different farming enterprises for 2015. He also kept emphasising that the 2016 dairy figure will be crap

Think it was 2/3 have no loans while 1/3 have an average of €60,000

whelan2 · 24-05-2016 05:08PM

browned wrote: »

Think it was 2/3 have no loans while 1/3 have an average of €60,000

Thanks. Will probably be on 6 o clock news again

Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

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