Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

Farmer Ed · 18-05-2016 03:38PM

alps wrote: »

And we're back to 80p a gallon again now....and we can produce all we want...flying it....

Just a small bit of a health a warning and I'm no economist. But when inflation is taken in to account. 80 pence per gallon in 1987 is the equivalent of roughly 53 c per litre in today's money. These figures really should bring home to us the steady decline in dairy prices over the last 30 years. If I'm right milk hit £1 a gallon in 1989. That's something like 63c/L in today's money.

I'm not trying to be pessimistic here. There is always a better way. But those are the hard facts..

browned · 18-05-2016 03:45PM

kowtow wrote: »

Interesting article in the journal about US milk / butter demand including the thesis that the world market floor price is set by the high cost producers, with the implication that the US is among them (although no cost of production data). The issue being that the margin protection insurance in the US (not really, as suggested in the article, a direct government support but anyway) will put downward pressure on the floor price.

I calculate US cost of production to be between EUR 28c/kg milk sold and EUR 38/c kg depending on farm size and excluding the margin protection program. Those costs include all land, and labour (paid & unpaid) - some of the data set is from 2015 so it's possible that the low end is even a bit lower now due to grain / oil which I suspect would weigh heavily on the super dairy sized operation.

Hmmm.

was talking to a guy who went on a few farm tours in the States last year. They visited a grazing farm which was producing milk for either 12 or 15c/litre all included and an indoor super dairy producing for either 22c/l or 18c/l. It was last year so that's why I'm not fully certain of the costs but they were scarily low when I heard them.

Buford T. Justice XIX · 18-05-2016 06:53PM

alps wrote: »

And we're back to 80p a gallon again now....and we can produce all we want...flying it....

Like I said, it's a matter of perception.

You can concentrate on the negatives or focus on the positives.

Me getting depressed about milk price isn't going to help me one iota so I'm going to concentrate on what's within my control.

Each to his own, I suppose.

Anyways, Kerry drop milk price 1.5c to 23.5c but pay 0.6c 13th payment on last years supply. If I was a cynic, I'd say they were paying last years topup with this years milk price....:pac:

Dawggone · 18-05-2016 07:00PM

kowtow wrote: »

Interesting article in the journal about US milk / butter demand including the thesis that the world market floor price is set by the high cost producers, with the implication that the US is among them (although no cost of production data). The issue being that the margin protection insurance in the US (not really, as suggested in the article, a direct government support but anyway) will put downward pressure on the floor price.

I calculate US cost of production to be between EUR 28c/kg milk sold and EUR 38/c kg depending on farm size and excluding the margin protection program. Those costs include all land, and labour (paid & unpaid) - some of the data set is from 2015 so it's possible that the low end is even a bit lower now due to grain / oil which I suspect would weigh heavily on the super dairy sized operation.

Hmmm.

Would you be able to post those CoP figures Kowtow? I wouldn't mind a butchers.

browned · 18-05-2016 07:49PM

Farmer Ed wrote: »

You are totally correct in 99% of what you are saying. The problem is we are constantly told not to concern ourselves about what happens outside the farm gate. You even have people on hear suggesting the only reason we are not getting a good price for milk is because our solids are not good enough. The levies you have correctly identified are only the tip of the iceberg. How much more from the greater agricultural budget that is not itemised in your milk statement is all this costing farmers. The sting in the tail is that a lot of the boards of these quangos are made up of our fellow farmers. In effect we are being sold down the river by our own. Amazing what a position on a board can do to change someone's prospective. But you are dead right. It's about time we collectively woke up and shouted stop.

I seem to recall that I was the one who posted that improving solids would help farmers out financially. I added up all the levies I paid last month and they amounted to 0.371 Cent/litre for me while my solids gave me a 7.91 cents bonus above the average coop supplier. Are you saying i would have been better off focussing on a levy savings of 0.371cent/litre instead of the added value of 7.91cent/litre I got?

you've highlight plenty of ways in which coops are inefficient over the last couple of months. can you put them all together and show the total savings that can be got from implementing them. 7.91 cent/litre is roughly 435 million so if we subtract 21million for levies we'll get 414 million. realistically it should be easy to make up 414 million in savings in one year but how do you make the savings in the following years?

just to clarify im not opposed to increased efficiency across our coops but it would be nice to see someone put a value on it

Waffletraktor · 18-05-2016 07:53PM

Dawggone wrote: »

.

Local union rep called to me this morning to tell me to back off a local farm that's for sale...yea right!!

Who told him to do that then.. Bloody foreigners buying up the whole place!
I imagine something going down like, " if you can't take the heat, get out of the kitchen!!" With pyrotechnics and stuff. It's not straight forward to simply buy once you hit x ha's with SAFER, young farmers get 1st choice and so forth..

Dawggone · 18-05-2016 08:03PM

Waffletraktor wrote: »

Who told him to do that then.. Bloody foreigners buying up the whole place!
I imagine something going down like, " if you can't take the heat, get out of the kitchen!!" With pyrotechnics and stuff. It's not straight forward to simply buy once you hit x ha's with SAFER, young farmers get 1st choice and so forth..

Exactly.
Young farmers are the Christ incarnate...

fepper · 18-05-2016 08:11PM

Buford T. Justice V wrote: »

Like I said, it's a matter of perception. 
 
You can concentrate on the negatives or focus on the positives. 
 
Me getting depressed about milk price isn't going to help me one iota so I'm going to concentrate on what's within my control. 
 
Each to his own, I suppose. 
 
Anyways, Kerry drop milk price 1.5c to 23.5c but pay 0.6c 13th payment on last years supply. If I was a cynic, I'd say they were paying last years topup with this years milk price....<a href="{smilies}/pacman.gif" border="0" alt="" title="Pacman" smilieid="12" class="inlineimg" />

Kerry plc are saying its honoured its leading price,the 0.6l is a hardship payment due to continuing low milk prices

jaymla627 · 18-05-2016 08:36PM

browned wrote: »

I seem to recall that I was the one who posted that improving solids would help farmers out financially. I added up all the levies I paid last month and they amounted to 0.371 Cent/litre for me while my solids gave me a 7.91 cents bonus above the average coop supplier. Are you saying i would have been better off focussing on a levy savings of 0.371cent/litre instead of the added value of 7.91cent/litre I got?

you've highlight plenty of ways in which coops are inefficient over the last couple of months. can you put them all together and show the total savings that can be got from implementing them. 7.91 cent/litre is roughly 435 million so if we subtract 21million for levies we'll get 414 million. realistically it should be easy to make up 414 million in savings in one year but how do you make the savings in the following years?

just to clarify im not opposed to increased efficiency across our coops but it would be nice to see someone put a value on it

What was your bf/pr for April to get that 7.91 cent on top of base price

browned · 18-05-2016 08:46PM

jaymla627 wrote: »

What was your bf/pr for April to get that 7.91 cent on top of base price

Sorry that was for March milk. April isn't out yet but won't be as high as fat dropped by .4%
4.67 and 3.71 for March.

mf240 · 18-05-2016 09:05PM

browned wrote: »

Sorry that was for March milk. April isn't out yet but won't be as high as fat dropped by .4%
4.67 and 3.71 for March.

What kind of litres per cow if you dont mind the question.

browned · 18-05-2016 09:19PM

mf240 wrote: »

What kind of litres per cow if you dont mind the question.

Back to 16 now

Dawggone · 18-05-2016 09:24PM

browned wrote: »

Back to 16 now

Every little helps...:)

browned · 18-05-2016 09:46PM

Dawggone wrote: »

Every little helps...:)

1st calvers really killing the averages.

kevthegaff · 18-05-2016 09:54PM

browned wrote: »

1st calvers really killing the averages.

Scc? How many had u to cull first 2 years? Interesting prospect

Dawggone · 18-05-2016 09:54PM

browned wrote: »

1st calvers really killing the averages.

Will they continue to produce?
Early days.

kevthegaff · 18-05-2016 10:01PM

I think if the preverbial s""t hits the fan OAD and job may be a possibility that's if one still wants to milk!

browned · 18-05-2016 10:02PM

kevthegaff wrote: »

Scc? How many had u to cull first 2 years? Interesting prospect

1st year doing it. Scc bouncing between 150-200. Prob cull 15% this year.

Dawggone · 18-05-2016 10:07PM

kevthegaff wrote: »

I think if the preverbial s""t hits the fan OAD and job may be a possibility that's if one still wants to survive!

FYP.

browned · 18-05-2016 10:07PM

Dawggone wrote: »

Will they continue to produce?
Early days.

Maybe 1or 2 will dry up but Id say the rest will hold.

kevthegaff · 18-05-2016 10:07PM

browned wrote: »

1st year doing it. Scc bouncing between 150-200. Prob cull 15% this year.

You prob have higher conceptions?

Dawggone · 18-05-2016 10:12PM

browned wrote: »

Maybe 1or 2 will dry up but Id say the rest will hold.

Fair dues for posting.
Keep it up.

At least someone is being proactive rather than bit*hing and moaning about Cooperatives.

Thanks.

browned · 18-05-2016 10:15PM

kevthegaff wrote: »

You prob have higher conceptions?

Hopefully. Only 9 days breeding and 50% served, that'd be similar to tad levels so too early to say

atlantic mist · 18-05-2016 10:24PM

lorry driver was saying first week he had to put an extra tanker on the road, only one extra load and he cover a large area, any word on country supply to date?

lakelands offers fixed price scheme at 31c per liter, able to select 5-10% of supply not a lottery, our is a lottery any mechanism to audit how they select suppliers and quantities?

jaymla627 · 18-05-2016 10:41PM

kevthegaff wrote: »

I think if the preverbial s""t hits the fan OAD and job may be a possibility that's if one still wants to milk!

I reckon it will go the other direction, a good solid herd doing 7500-8000 litres at around 7.5% solids of grass and say around 1.3 ton of nuts would be hard beat I reckon, simply put if I was only sending in 16 litres a cow at the minute even with exceptional solids I simply would have to pack it in as cash coming in simply wouldn't be enough to cover loan payments and all the rest

mahoney_j · 18-05-2016 10:48PM

jaymla627 wrote: »

I reckon it will go the other direction, a good solid herd doing 7500-8000 litres at around 7.5% solids of grass and say around 1.3 ton of nuts would be hard beat I reckon, simply put if I was only sending in 16 litres a cow at the minute even with exceptional solids I simply would have to pack it in as cash coming in simply wouldn't be enough to cover loan payments and all the rest

Fully agree ,that's where I'd see it going too .fair play to browned though for giving it a go and posting it up here

kevthegaff · 18-05-2016 10:51PM

I see labour as the only one we can control, larger numbers per labour unit. Very interested in browneds set up too, as I say if things hit the fan or in later life OAD sounds feasible

mahoney_j · 18-05-2016 11:01PM

kevthegaff wrote: »

I see labour as the only one we can control, larger numbers per labour unit. Very interested in browneds set up too, as I say if things hit the fan or in later life OAD sounds feasible

Personally when I hit say 50 and no successor showing interest ,no mortgage no/little debt I'd def go oad .great lifestyle

Timmaay · 18-05-2016 11:03PM

kevthegaff wrote: »

I see labour as the only one we can control, larger numbers per labour unit. Very interested in browneds set up too, as I say if things hit the fan or in later life OAD sounds feasible

Now that I've finally ditched the autumn calvers, I'll serious consider OAD during the winter, especially if I'm anything like the last few years and over suppling my liquid quota. I'd rather piss the litres away than give it to Glanbia for well less than it costs me, while giving them a stick to beat down people who are properly in liquid milk ha

. But in all seriousness it definitely makes sense over Xmas any during January etc when I'd be often on holidays etc, saves on milk relief etc, could well make sense during November also when I'll probably have to start splitting the milking herd if housed as not enough cubicles in the yard with the parlour.

blackdog1 · 18-05-2016 11:03PM

mahoney_j wrote:

Fully agree ,that's where I'd see it going too .fair play to browned though for giving it a go and posting it up here

Farm with my father and I think if I had to get a job I would put the herd on Oad so he could cope. Scc is 74-120 so it might work but I think it would be better if they were on Oad from calving rather than switching them mid season.

Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

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