Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

Water John wrote: »

The AGM's are out of the way. Price should bottom out for the year.

Just an example of what every cent means.
The 1.7 cent diff between Arrabawn and Dairygold would yield an extra €20M to Dairygold farmers over a year.

Craic, that is very interesting on the levies. Are you saying the total is 0.0016 cent per litre?

yes thats wat on my milk statements anyways . big difference on wat i was paying with wexford milk producers

According to agriland - Ireland's main request at today's EU meeting was an increase in volume limits (not price) for intervention.

Assuming he has some briefing channels from the processors, presumably this suggests that their concern is that intervention (even at the low price) is not big enough for the milk they now need to put into it which is a development of some concern.

Quite apart from extra stocks distorting and weighing on the market, in attempting to cushion the decline of price here all intervention is doing is supporting extra production in NZ etc. - I can see where it has a place in the liquid / mixed production countries but where Ireland & other exporters are concerned I reckon it does more damage than good.

Also no amount of merging of co-operatives or processors, or indeed efficiency at that level, is going to help if their role is simply to make powder for Government storage. All this corporate talk is fiddling while Rome burns.

kowtow wrote: »

According to agriland - Ireland's main request at today's EU meeting was an increase in volume limits (not price) for intervention.

Assuming he has some briefing channels from the processors, presumably this suggests that their concern is that intervention (even at the low price) is not big enough for the milk they now need to put into it which is a development of some concern.

Quite apart from extra stocks distorting and weighing on the market, in attempting to cushion the decline of price here all intervention is doing is supporting extra production in NZ etc. - I can see where it has a place in the liquid / mixed production countries but where Ireland & other exporters are concerned I reckon it does more damage than good.

Also no amount of merging of co-operatives or processors, or indeed efficiency at that level, is going to help if their role is simply to make powder for Government storage. All this corporate talk is fiddling while Rome burns.

Powder is what we're stuck with short term. Reading a not very in depth article over the weekend was a bit scary. Article about the political and social situation in China. I didn't realise it but the guy who came to power in 2012 is a bit of a headbanger to say the least. He seems to have spent the past four years rowing back on a lot of freedoms and shutting down dissent at all levels. I wonder are these actions and uncertainty having much of a drag on the Chinese economy and on this region generally? If so are we looking at poor demand on all commodities until some sort of new normal emerges?

I thought scrapping the one baby rule would help somewhat but I was very wrong. What really pi''ss es me off if we are dealing in mainly powder and exporting beef/ pigs etc why should we uphold high standards and pay for bb inspections, quango boards, 3 or 4 bloody representative bodies and comply with stricter dep officials than other countries, so wonder our cost of processing is so high

freedominacup wrote: »

If so are we looking at poor demand on all commodities until some sort of new normal emerges?

I'm afraid that it's more like the normal normal than the new normal.

The period from 2002-2014 increasingly looks out of the ordinary - a volatile combination of excitement at the "rise" of China as a consuming nation and various shots of very cheap market money, ostensibly introduced to ameliorate the effects of the dot com bust and the subsequent 2007-2008 market adjustment following sub-prime & Lehman.

I know I've been characterised here as unrealistic in calling for a dairy culture of premium products built on firm foundations which actually reflect our terroir (i.e. Irish grass), and (rather than the kneejerk reaction of merging and centralisation) considering processing models which reflect those in more competitive & successful industries... however

..having spent a long time at the sharper end of markets I can say with some certainty that only an exceptional opportunist, or a very short term thinker, would have deliberately set out to build a National business model on the narrow parameters of a period which even at the time was so obviously exceptional.

Volatile peaks in cycles are cathartic, destructive triggers for structural change - they point to every sort of opportunity - but they are absolutely not a simplistic template to sample briefly before setting the course for all future generations.

Powder is where we are at today, no question. How we got here and how much we spent doing it is worth examining - if only to avoid similar errors in the future - but what I would like to see is just one industry figure, farmers representative, or politician say "Look - we did this wrong, we were totally naive in our assumptions, but maybe along the way we discovered the germ of an industry which more exciting and authentic than leaning over the shoulder of New Zealand and copying their spelling test - so let's dial everything back, get the farmers back on side (or step out of the way and find someone who can) and figure out how to get this right, no matter how many years it takes."

kowtow wrote: »

I'm afraid that it's more like the normal normal than the new normal.

The period from 2002-2014 increasingly looks out of the ordinary - a volatile combination of excitement at the "rise" of China as a consuming nation and various shots of very cheap market money, ostensibly introduced to ameliorate the effects of the dot com bust and the subsequent 2007-2008 market adjustment following sub-prime & Lehman.

I know I've been characterised here as unrealistic in calling for a dairy culture of premium products built on firm foundations which actually reflect our terroir (i.e. Irish grass), and (rather than the kneejerk reaction of merging and centralisation) considering processing models which reflect those in more competitive & successful industries... however

..having spent a long time at the sharper end of markets I can say with some certainty that only an exceptional opportunist, or a very short term thinker, would have deliberately set out to build a National business model on the narrow parameters of a period which even at the time was so obviously exceptional.

Volatile peaks in cycles are cathartic, destructive triggers for structural change - they point to every sort of opportunity - but they are absolutely not a simplistic template to sample briefly before setting the course for all future generations.

Powder is where we are at today, no question. How we got here and how much we spent doing it is worth examining - if only to avoid similar errors in the future - but what I would like to see is just one industry figure, farmers representative, or politician say "Look - we did this wrong, we were totally naive in our assumptions, but maybe along the way we discovered the germ of an industry which more exciting and authentic than leaning over the shoulder of New Zealand and copying their spelling test - so let's dial everything back, get the farmers back on side (or step out of the way and find someone who can) and figure out how to get this right, no matter how many years it takes."

I think it may have been a bit longer than "02-"14 but other than that you're probably fairly right. That said my mate in sales sees trade fairs in this part of the world as a waste of time but can't get enough of east Asia. He thinks the potential is huge still and he's going there since the late nineties. The product he's supplying is fairly commoditized. The merchants at the sharp end only know of his company as a licence number. When they're introduced to the merchants it's always as "kowtow from 123 company". As always there's a disconnect somewhere between the end user and the primary producer.

kowtow wrote: »

I know I've been characterised here as unrealistic in calling for a dairy culture of premium products built on firm foundations which actually reflect our terroir (i.e. Irish grass), and (rather than the kneejerk reaction of merging and centralisation) considering processing models which reflect those in more competitive & successful industries... "

I wouldn't call you unrealistic but dealing with the public is a whole other skillset. I've been in that sort of role and found it bloody hard work. B2B isn't too bad but dealing with consumers who firmly believe their own press is soul destroying unless you're cut out for it. It might ve sticking my head in the sand but for the moment I'm going to do what I'm confident in my abilities to do and let someone else manage from the farm gate on. Hopefully thousands of producers follow your lead and ye all make a killing, it might make a bit more room for those of us not suited to it.

Farmer Ed wrote: »

Farmers are keeping going on the promise things will get better. Most people go to work in the morning knowing they will be paid for their work. Farmers go to work in the morning hoping sometime in the future things will be better and they will get paid for their work again.

I am sure if alot of us had been told this time last year how crap milk price would be now we would have made changes. Wonder what will milk price be this time next year, its the uncertainty thats a killer

rangler1 wrote: »

+1 on that
It wouldn't do farmers any harm to deal directly with the consumer for a while, have had some experience of it, and if the customer wants it you have to provide it. see some questioning the value of QA, weight limits, etc. how do you value something that keeps you out of the market if you don't have it.
On milk price, it's seriously bad news to see farmers still expanding just to pump it into intervention......surely it's an indication that the intervention price is wrong

Are people still expanding or are plans at a stand still?