Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

Water John

What would it be pitched at? 3 to 6 euro per share?
Shares in DG are €95M
Company value €300M+
Bank debt €100M

freedominacup

Water John wrote: »

What would it be pitched at? 3 to 6 euro per share?
Shares in DG are €95M
Company value €300M+
Bank debt €100M

Company value seems to be ebita by 5-5.5 .

Bass Reeves

cute geoge wrote: »

The golden vale farmers did well out of the share deal they got when kerry took over .You can be sure kerry wont go over the top to take over d.g.
Stan tells us he can get milk anywhere else cheaper so what other benefit would keery get buying d.g.

Every analyst taught Kerry paid over the top for GV. They bought at the bottom of the market. They are experts at buying at the bottom of the market.

Water John wrote: »

What would it be pitched at? 3 to 6 euro per share?
Shares in DG are €95M
Company value €300M+
Bank debt €100M

What is the number of shares in DG. It has a lot of new shiney stainless steel. As far as I know Kerry put up little stainless even though there was grant aid. DB scheme is an issue but it can be closed and DC one open. A lot of staff are over 50 so easy to do a deal. DG co-op has wasted money all over the place in getting into non core business's. It agri business over laps the old Kerry/GV store's. Remember when Kerry took over GV it halved the number of old GV stores. It makes as much if not more sense for Kerry to take over as Glanbia.

Looking back a few years Kerry sold its branded liquid milk label and it liquid milk business to Glanbia. It saw no future in the market as too many co-op under pricing each other. Glanbia taught it was on a winner. It lost the Tesco contract to Arrabawn and Centuary in the last few weeks. Who won

Water John

Well Freedom that was 47M in 2014 but dropped to nearly 41M in 2015.
Think the min would have to be 3 euro per share.

And Bass, DG already sold their brands to Kerry. Kerry even own the Dairygold name!!

cute geoge

i can not remember the mechanics of the kerry takeover of goldenvale but would it be possible for kerry to takeover dairygold without massive debt .I think goldenvale farmers got kerry co op shares at low prices ,but this would be out of the question now .
At 5.50 per share what price would it cost to takeover dairygold not to mind the cost of investment needed to put it on a sounder footing

Water John

5.5 EBITA is very diff to 5.5 euro per share
227M V 517M

Any shareholder will take the second one.

Bass Reeves

Water John wrote: »

5.5 EBITA is very diff to 5.5 euro per share
227M V 517M

Any shareholder will take the second one.

You are saying here is nearly 100 million share in the co-op. hard to believe that there is that number. The truth more than likly lies somewhere in the middle. In a take over there are synergies, combining the agri business's, access to new and extra plant etc. 3-4 euro/share is more likly

Water John

94M in shares.
Agri is 28% of the business.
Over €200M spent on steel in the last 7 years.

I think you said a lot of senior staff over 50 that's true. They have made sure the pension fund is not short.

I won't talk down the price Bass. Its a once off opportunity. Milk suppliers would be wary of Kerry and Glanbia and their fondness for low price.
But dry shareholders would be pleased with a good offer.

Bass Reeves

Water John wrote: »

94M in shares.
Agri is 28% of the business.
Over €200M spent on steel in the last 7 years.

I think you said a lot of senior staff over 50 that's true. They have made sure the pension fund is not short.

I won't talk down the price Bass. Its a once off opportunity. Milk suppliers would be wary of Kerry and Glanbia and their fondness for low price.
But dry shareholders would be pleased with a good offer.

It is not just senior staff in the few stores I went ti a lot of staff are 40+. Easier to do a deal with staff nearing retirement also easier to make a redundancy offer.

I think it will be really attractive to both Kerry and Glanbia. Not sure whether there stainless is co-op or PLC owned. I think in Kerry the co-op's owns the stores and the PLC own's the steel but not sure. Maybe this is why Stan left the co-op board if there was joint bid looming conflict of interest between co-op and plc. I cannot but see Kerry interested in it. A 400 million price would be 4.25/share. However if either Kerry or Glanbia buy there will be a share element in joining the new co-op.

This might make sence as either Kerry PLC or Glanbia PLC could issue new shares as part payment for there part of the venture.

Water John

Dry shareholders would cash out I'd say. If Kerry shares were available in part it might sweeten the deal.

Farmer Ed

Bass Reeves wrote: »

It is not just senior staff in the few stores I went ti a lot of staff are 40+. Easier to do a deal with staff nearing retirement also easier to make a redundancy offer.

I think it will be really attractive to both Kerry and Glanbia. Not sure whether there stainless is co-op or PLC owned. I think in Kerry the co-op's owns the stores and the PLC own's the steel but not sure. Maybe this is why Stan left the co-op board if there was joint bid looming conflict of interest between co-op and plc. I cannot but see Kerry interested in it. A 400 million price would be 4.25/share. However if either Kerry or Glanbia buy there will be a share element in joining the new co-op.

This might make sence as either Kerry PLC or Glanbia PLC could issue new shares as part payment for there part of the venture.

The Chairman did mention something about a "China man" with a cheque book as if it were some kind of Master plan. Wouldn't fancy having a msa tied to him. dairlygold could end up like Tibet and Woulfe like the Dalai Lama. Except with a much better pension of course.

Brown Podzol

95% of staff employed before 2011 are on db pension, fully funded afaik.

Multiples of EBITA as a valuation is fine for a limited company but not for a co-op.

orm0nd

mahoney_j wrote: »

.nothing to be gained by merging with tipp or centenary .geographicaly it makes sense alright

know very little about either tbh, but agree better go it alone for now, might be a different story this time next year however

not looking good atm

Bass Reeves

Brown Podzol wrote: »

95% of staff employed before 2011 are on db pension, fully funded afaik.

Multiples of EBITA as a valuation is fine for a limited company but not for a co-op.

Yes but considering on how DG are making a mess in managing the co-op any option should be considered

alps

mahoney_j wrote: »

Wasn't insulting ,was a poor offer but itvwas just an initial offer .they were never going to play trump card first same thing would of happend if roles reversed ..nothing to be gained by merging with tipp or centenary .geographicaly it makes sense alright

Were Arrabawn, Aurivo and Lakelands close to doing something a number of years ago? Lots of duplication of facilities and skill sets with those 3...

Water John

Not sure does Aurivo management see themselves in that grouping.
There can be a lot of strategic synergies and diff models. Full merger may not be the best option.
The 4 West Cork coops do their own thing in many ways. That also keeps a local identity and exploits diff niche areas.

Some processors also use Ornua a lot, others very little. DG use is around 70% I think.

Farmer Ed

Bass Reeves wrote: »

It is not just senior staff in the few stores I went ti a lot of staff are 40+. Easier to do a deal with staff nearing retirement also easier to make a redundancy offer.

I think it will be really attractive to both Kerry and Glanbia. Not sure whether there stainless is co-op or PLC owned. I think in Kerry the co-op's owns the stores and the PLC own's the steel but not sure. Maybe this is why Stan left the co-op board if there was joint bid looming conflict of interest between co-op and plc. I cannot but see Kerry interested in it. A 400 million price would be 4.25/share. However if either Kerry or Glanbia buy there will be a share element in joining the new co-op.

This might make sence as either Kerry PLC or Glanbia PLC could issue new shares as part payment for there part of the venture.

Dairygold themselves only value the whole business at something like 300 m and if the usual rhetoric is anything to go by, I'd be fairly confident their being optimistic. Now if you take 200 m of borrowings off that. It would make the net value just 100m. On top of that as in the case of Gill.if you already have spare processing capacity you are having difficulty filling. Why would you want to buy more processing plants? In truth then the new Mallow plant they have been making such a song and dance about would be surplus to requirements and it's only real value would be the scrap value of the plant plus the site value. In fairness it is a valuable site in the middle of a town and probably too valuable to be using it for processing milk in the first place. That is one thing Henchy did seem to be right about.

Milked out

Farmer Ed wrote: »

Bass Reeves wrote: »

It is not just senior staff in the few stores I went ti a lot of staff are 40+. Easier to do a deal with staff nearing retirement also easier to make a redundancy offer.

I think it will be really attractive to both Kerry and Glanbia. Not sure whether there stainless is co-op or PLC owned. I think in Kerry the co-op's owns the stores and the PLC own's the steel but not sure. Maybe this is why Stan left the co-op board if there was joint bid looming conflict of interest between co-op and plc. I cannot but see Kerry interested in it. A 400 million price would be 4.25/share. However if either Kerry or Glanbia buy there will be a share element in joining the new co-op.

This might make sence as either Kerry PLC or Glanbia PLC could issue new shares as part payment for there part of the venture.

Dairygold themselves only value the whole business at something like 300 m and if the usual rhetoric is anything to go by, I'd be fairly confident their being optimistic. Now if you take 200 m of borrowings off that. It would make the net value just 100m. On top of that as in the case of Gill.if you already have spare processing capacity you are having difficulty filling. Why would you want to buy more processing plants? In truth then the new Mallow plant they have been making such a song and dance about would be surplus to requirements and it's only real value would be the scrap value of the plant plus the site value. In fairness it is a valuable site in the middle of a town and probably too valuable to be using it for processing milk in the first place. That is one thing Henchy did seem to be right about.

Take it dg didn't build the processing capacity, we would be looking for other coops to buy our milk at peak in one of the worst downturns going and that coop most likely being Glanbia, do u honestly think our milk price would be better?

blackdog1

blackdog1 wrote:

Lost one of my top cows to inconclusive and she turned out clear after...I don't miss her now but she was a he'll of a cow. Bite the bullet or isolate and retest but it's up to you. Either way you'll always to looking at her and never happy when she's mixing with the rest.

Farmer Ed wrote:

Dairygold themselves only value the whole business at something like 300 m and if the usual rhetoric is anything to go by, I'd be fairly confident their being optimistic. Now if you take 200 m of borrowings off that. It would make the net value just 100m. On top of that as in the case of Gill.if you already have spare processing capacity you are having difficulty filling. Why would you want to buy more processing plants? In truth then the new Mallow plant they have been making such a song and dance about would be surplus to requirements and it's only real value would be the scrap value of the plant plus the site value. In fairness it is a valuable site in the middle of a town and probably too valuable to be using it for processing milk in the first place. That is one thing Henchy did seem to be right about.

If anyone buys us out it would be Kerry I recon.

Farmer Ed

Milked out wrote: »

Take it dg didn't build the processing capacity, we would be looking for other coops to buy our milk at peak in one of the worst downturns going and that coop most likely being Glanbia, do u honestly think our milk price would be better?

I don't think there was anything worth getting excited about processed in mallow last year and mogeely was only operating one day a week. Gill were having teething problems with bellview and were still sending milk down to mitchelstown.. Actually it's pretty certain if Dg hadn't wasted all that money in mallow you would be getting a better price for you milk now.

Mallow is a bit like a farmer buying a shiny new self propelled to cut his own silage. For the amount of time it is likely to be needed I don't think it ever made since to begin with.

atlantic mist

what date are we suppose to be getting paid the milk cheque, announced the price early this month but looks like we are waiting until the 17th for payment!! could have paid milk earlier to help cash flows on farms

dont think coops need to be talking about mergers, possible just use processors to process and take good back goods to sell ourselves dont think any coop needs to merge/be taken over our problem is inability to sell and market not process and our processors have not stepped up to this plate and dont want to they only understand stainless steel, the only people who will benefit from mergers is the management teams on both sides, suppliers do not feature and no synergies will be created that arnt all ready there, glanbia and kerry coop on a different path than dg, neither system is perfect both have advantages and disadvantages, both now need to change approach as what has worked in the past is unlikely to work again cant see gii ever being floated on its own it would take 50 years like it did with avonmore/waterford foods, we had all the brands and markets and avonmore had a bundle of cash there was logic, we have now cashed in our brands to pull us through these low price periods....but what do we do next time....supermarkets have dented branded business with own value brands so hard to establish new brands ...we still have 30% to go, if thats the plan to follow kerry model or in kerry case when the remaining 10% is gone?...which is what there suppliers are now figuring out, with kerry being at a more advance stage in its coop life cycle as we see with the winding down of stake in plc the farmers are back to square one from a milk point of view, glanbia will do the same

from the sound of it dg management are running amuck, defined pension and if they have them you can be sure there ridding ye in other ways too, but its up to ye to hold them account, easier to change management than change their views..... we are finding this difficult ourselves as management have put up barriers to this over the years we cant even get a P&L and they get sneaker as the years go on and transparent is suppose to be a fashionable buzz word these days

Bass Reeves

atlantic mist wrote: »

what date are we suppose to be getting paid the milk cheque, announced the price early this month but looks like we are waiting until the 17th for payment!! could have paid milk earlier to help cash flows on farms

dont think coops need to be talking about mergers, possible just use processors to process and take good back goods to sell ourselves dont think any coop needs to merge/be taken over our problem is inability to sell and market not process and our processors have not stepped up to this plate and dont want to they only understand stainless steel, the only people who will benefit from mergers is the management teams on both sides, suppliers do not feature and no synergies will be created that arnt all ready there, glanbia and kerry coop on a different path than dg, neither system is perfect both have advantages and disadvantages, both now need to change approach as what has worked in the past is unlikely to work again cant see gii ever being floated on its own it would take 50 years like it did with avonmore/waterford foods, we had all the brands and markets and avonmore had a bundle of cash there was logic, we have now cashed in our brands to pull us through these low price periods....but what do we do next time....supermarkets have dented branded business with own value brands so hard to establish new brands ...we still have 30% to go, if thats the plan to follow kerry model or in kerry case when the remaining 10% is gone?...which is what there suppliers are now figuring out, with kerry being at a more advance stage in its coop life cycle as we see with the winding down of stake in plc the farmers are back to square one from a milk point of view, glanbia will do the same

from the sound of it dg management are running amuck, defined pension and if they have them you can be sure there ridding ye in other ways too, but its up to ye to hold them account, easier to change management than change their views..... we are finding this difficult ourselves as management have put up barriers to this over the years we cant even get a P&L and they get sneaker as the years go on and transparent is suppose to be a fashionable buzz word these days

The issue with the number of processors is that they are competing against each other for contracts. arrabawn/Centuary took the Tesco liquid milk contract off Glanbia. Glanbia too LIDL contract off some else. DG lost Danone contract to Glanbia was it. We are competing against each other it could be costing farmers 1-2c/L on these contracts. No point in having NDC on the label if we are undercutting each other. It is bad enough competing against French cheese, and northern milk.

Farmer Ed

Bass Reeves wrote: »

The issue with the number of processors is that they are competing against each other for contracts. arrabawn/Centuary took the Tesco liquid milk contract off Glanbia. Glanbia too LIDL contract off some else. DG lost Danone contract to Glanbia was it. We are competing against each other it could be costing farmers 1-2c/L on these contracts. No point in having NDC on the label if we are undercutting each other. It is bad enough competing against French cheese, and northern milk.

In theory you are right in practice experience shows us that the large Co ops are the ones paying the lowest milk price. Also they are the ones who treat their suppliers with the least amount of respect. As for the NDC. Are they really not duplicating the work of Ornua. If Ornua can promote milk internationaly why can't it also promote it at home. And then that brings us to board bia. Again are they not duplicating some of the work of the other two also. If it's time to scrap stuff. Maybe first we need to look at the quangos living off the poor cow.

Bass Reeves

Farmer Ed wrote: »

In theory you are right in practice experience shows us that the large Co ops are the ones paying the lowest milk price. Also they are the ones who treat their suppliers with the least amount of respect. As for the NDC. Are they really not duplicating the work of Ornua. If Ornua can promote milk internationaly why can't it also promote it at home. And then that brings us to board bia. Again are they not duplicating some of the work of the other two also. If it's time to scrap stuff. Maybe first we need to look at the quangos living off the poor cow.

NDC is the brand used on milk labels in Ireland to indicate that milk is of Irish orgin. Mosr big retailers want the brand on there milk at this stage even own brand. With co-op undercutting on price there is little oint on the label and this may costing a few cent a litre on the liquid milk

whelan2

atlantic mist wrote: »

what date are we suppose to be getting paid the milk cheque, announced the price early this month but looks like we are waiting until the 17th for payment!! could have paid milk earlier to help cash flows on farms

dont think coops need to be talking about mergers, possible just use processors to process and take good back goods to sell ourselves dont think any coop needs to merge/be taken over our problem is inability to sell and market not process and our processors have not stepped up to this plate and dont want to they only understand stainless steel, the only people who will benefit from mergers is the management teams on both sides, suppliers do not feature and no synergies will be created that arnt all ready there, glanbia and kerry coop on a different path than dg, neither system is perfect both have advantages and disadvantages, both now need to change approach as what has worked in the past is unlikely to work again cant see gii ever being floated on its own it would take 50 years like it did with avonmore/waterford foods, we had all the brands and markets and avonmore had a bundle of cash there was logic, we have now cashed in our brands to pull us through these low price periods....but what do we do next time....supermarkets have dented branded business with own value brands so hard to establish new brands ...we still have 30% to go, if thats the plan to follow kerry model or in kerry case when the remaining 10% is gone?...which is what there suppliers are now figuring out, with kerry being at a more advance stage in its coop life cycle as we see with the winding down of stake in plc the farmers are back to square one from a milk point of view, glanbia will do the same

from the sound of it dg management are running amuck, defined pension and if they have them you can be sure there ridding ye in other ways too, but its up to ye to hold them account, easier to change management than change their views..... we are finding this difficult ourselves as management have put up barriers to this over the years we cant even get a P&L and they get sneaker as the years go on and transparent is suppose to be a fashionable buzz word these days

18th is normally the payment date, price per litre is up on glanbia connect but no statement

Farmer Ed

Bass Reeves wrote: »

NDC is the brand used on milk labels in Ireland to indicate that milk is of Irish orgin. Mosr big retailers want the brand on there milk at this stage even own brand. With co-op undercutting on price there is little oint on the label and this may costing a few cent a litre on the liquid milk

You could just as easily put on a board bia label or an Ornua logo . Why are we all having to be board bia approved if it's the NDC or Ornua are the people selling our product? Surely there seems to be duplication and this is just one example Our farming industry must surely be the world leader in the quango creation .

johnny122

Anyone hear anything about co ops and dept of ag meeting this week 're some big announcement to support milk price ?

Farmer Ed

johnny122 wrote: »

Anyone hear anything about co ops and dept of ag meeting this week 're some big announcement to support milk price ?

I saw on Agriland that agriculture ministers are meeting in Brussels Every race and Creed.
Drawg seemed to have some insider information that the Bfp would be paid very early this year.

jaymla627

Farmer Ed wrote: »

I saw on Agriland that agriculture ministers are meeting in Brussels Every race and Creed.
Drawg seemed to have some insider information that the Bfp would be paid very early this year.

Can't see how paying out the bps will be beneficial, all it means is that for Spring calving herds dairy herds they will be able to clear up some of the bills a bit quicker but f##k me it will be a few fairly lean months after that when the milk cheques won't be a whole lot and the usual injection of cash in October/Dec is already gone and spent

whelan2

jaymla627 wrote: »

Can't see how paying out the bps will be beneficial, all it means is that for Spring calving herds dairy herds they will be able to clear up some of the bills a bit quicker but f##k me it will be a few fairly lean months after that when the milk cheques won't be a whole lot and the usual injection of cash in October/Dec is already gone and spent

Agreed , would it not be better that they worked to pay everyone on time?