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Shootings in Paris - MOD NOTE UPDATED - READ OP

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Comments

  • #6872
    tomwaterford
    Closed Accounts Posts: 16,768 ✭✭✭✭tomwaterford


    SpaceSasqwatch wrote: »
    numbers..a strange science called maths

    A really hate being pedantic but it's statistics


    Though on second taught is that a branch of maths


  • #6873
    Call Me Jimmy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,449 ✭✭✭Call Me Jimmy


    so is it statistics or maths? I need to know asap


  • #6874
    fed up sick and tired
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,015 ✭✭✭fed up sick and tired


    tomwaterford wrote: »
    A really hate being pedantic but it's statistics


    Though on second taught is that a branch of maths

    I hate being pedantic myself, and I shouldn't have had to point this out, but...

    When I said 'How do you know ?', I meant 'Give me the statistical evidence'.

    People prefer to feign ignorance of a sensible interpretation of the question, rather than give a substantial answer. It's a tactic.

    Still, it isn't really the point. The risks are not of the same quality.

    The risk of being killed travelling is an acceptable hazard of an activity that has a corresponding benefit - you get to go to interesting places and so on.

    The risk of being murdered by Islamist scum is mathematically smaller - we'll take the other guy's word for that - but there is no justification for the risk to which the Islamist scum is subjecting you, and no corresponding benefit to you of being the object of their wrath.

    I'd still travel though. F*** them. Wouldn't give them the satisfaction.


  • #6875
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    SpaceSasqwatch wrote: »
    still more likely to die travelling there than a terrorist attack...your call

    Im definitely going . I just said I was a tiny bit worried. And thats not completely true, you're more likely to win the lottery than be attacked by a shark but that doesn't mean your chances of being attacked don't increase if you swim in an area with recent shark sightings. I hate making dramatic comparisons like that but Im sure you get my drift


  • #6876
    ceadaoin.
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,728 ✭✭✭ceadaoin.


    tomwaterford wrote: »
    A really hate being pedantic but it's statistics


    Though on second taught is that a branch of maths

    Statistics or probability? :p


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  • #6877
    fed up sick and tired
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,015 ✭✭✭fed up sick and tired


    wakka12 wrote: »
    Im definitely going . I just said I was a tiny bit worried. And thats not completely true, you're more likely to win the lottery than be attacked by a shark but that doesn't mean your chances of being attacked don't increase if you swim in an area with recent shark sightings. I hate making dramatic comparisons like that but Im sure you get my drift

    I'm sure he does, but I'm also sure he'll pretend not to, and drag it all down some back-alley of diversionary waffle.

    You make your point well, though.

    Best of luck on your trip. It's a wonderful city.


  • #6878
    fr336
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,179 ✭✭✭✭fr336


    SpaceSasqwatch wrote: »
    numbers..a strange science called maths

    Why do I feel more likely to be blown up by terrorists in Paris, London etc than if I was flying a British Airways, Aer Lingus etc flight across the channel? When was the last plane crash on a major airline that wasn't down to terrorism or crazy pilots? Hmmmmm....

    ETA: Oh I guess you mean the whole journey from home to airport and beyond. Nope, still feeling more wary in Paris where ISIS seemed to have the run of the place in November and France is STILL under national emergency.


  • #6879
    tomwaterford
    Closed Accounts Posts: 16,768 ✭✭✭✭tomwaterford


    ceadaoin. wrote: »
    Statistics or probability? :p



    ** head explodes**




    (Not caused by Islamists....unless ceadaoin is an Islamist :pac: )


  • #6880
    The Randy Riverbeast
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,770 ✭✭✭The Randy Riverbeast


    fr336 wrote: »
    Why do I feel more likely to be blown up by terrorists in Paris, London etc than if I was flying a British Airways, Aer Lingus etc flight across the channel? When was the last plane crash on a major airline that wasn't down to terrorism or crazy pilots? Hmmmmm....

    ETA: Oh I guess you mean the whole journey from home to airport and beyond. Nope, still feeling more wary in Paris where ISIS seemed to have the run of the place in November and France is STILL under national emergency.

    Humans often feel things that go against logic. More people are probably afraid of flying than driving even though planes are less likely to crash.


  • #6881
    Nodin
    Closed Accounts Posts: 46,938 ✭✭✭✭Nodin


    tomwaterford wrote: »
    ** head explodes**




    (Not caused by Islamists....unless ceadaoin is an Islamist :pac: )

    Scanner islamists?


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  • #6882
    SpaceSasqwatch
    Closed Accounts Posts: 768 ✭✭✭SpaceSasqwatch


    fr336 wrote: »
    Why do I feel more likely to be blown up by terrorists in Paris,
    Thats a false perception though...if you really wanna play it safe ,stay in bed

    121 plane crashes in 2015--4 by acts of terrorism,sabotage etc

    http://www.baaa-acro.com/advanced-search-result/?type=crash&display=entry&year_post=2015&continent=0&country=0&pavillon=0&aircraft=0&operator=0&cause=0&et_searchform_submit=et_search_proccess


  • #6883
    walshyn93
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,685 ✭✭✭walshyn93


    The Randy Riverbeast wrote: »
    Humans often feel things that go against logic. More people are probably afraid of flying than driving even though planes are less likely to crash.

    Where is the logic in combining all plane crashes in an overly broad sample group when the majority of plane crashes (at least higher proportion) are private planes with inexperienced pilots or shoddy safety compliance as opposed to commercial jets on major airlines in major countries which are maintained to the highest safety standards imaginable?

    There's certainly no logic in isolating the terror threat in Paris from all other crimes you could ordinarily be a victim of such as mugging, car jacking etc. as though the risk of terrorism doesn't compound the usual dangers.

    I'd like to know how your chances of dying as a tourist who would likely be at a public place or event in Paris on Nov 13th stack up against your chances of dying on a routine 1hr flight. Your overly simplistic analysis based on dinner table statistics isn't very informative.


  • #6884
    Nodin
    Closed Accounts Posts: 46,938 ✭✭✭✭Nodin


    fr336 wrote: »
    Why do I feel more likely to be blown up by terrorists in Paris, London etc than if I was flying a British Airways, Aer Lingus etc flight across the channel?

    Because terrorists can't flap their arms fast enough to fly after you?


  • #6885
    SpaceSasqwatch
    Closed Accounts Posts: 768 ✭✭✭SpaceSasqwatch


    fed up sick and tired wrote: »
    Let's have some then.
    1 in 9.3 million
    http://www.techjuice.pk/a-data-scientist-explains-odds-of-dying-in-a-terrorist-attack/

    EDIT:and specifically for france its 1 in 480,000...still more likely dying getting there.......
    http://about-france.com/france-safe-2016.htm
    now get back in your box.


  • #6886
    fed up sick and tired
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,015 ✭✭✭fed up sick and tired


    SpaceSasqwatch wrote: »
    1 in 9.3 million
    http://www.techjuice.pk/a-data-scientist-explains-odds-of-dying-in-a-terrorist-attack/

    EDIT:and specifically for france its 1 in 480,000...still more likely dying getting there.......
    http://about-france.com/france-safe-2016.htm
    now get back in your box.

    Worthless. Do you even read your own sources ?
    the overall average of dying in any kind of terrorist attack worldwide is 1 in 9,300,000 (9.3 million)

    What does that have to do with the question of the specific risk, pertaining to a specific timeframe, with a specific heightened security alert in the destination.

    To remind you...
    Just heard that several terrorists were arrested and had planned an imminent attack in central Paris. Sadly Im a little bit worried about going to paris tomorrow!

    Less bluffing and more rational thought in future, please.


  • #6887
    fed up sick and tired
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,015 ✭✭✭fed up sick and tired


    SpaceSasqwatch wrote: »
    1 in 9.3 million
    http://www.techjuice.pk/a-data-scientist-explains-odds-of-dying-in-a-terrorist-attack/

    EDIT:and specifically for france its 1 in 480,000...still more likely dying getting there.......
    http://about-france.com/france-safe-2016.htm
    now get back in your box.

    IS this an example of the sniping and personal remarks that are not welcome on the thread, as we have been told ?


  • #6888
    SpaceSasqwatch
    Closed Accounts Posts: 768 ✭✭✭SpaceSasqwatch


    fed up sick and tired wrote: »
    Worthless. Do you even read your own sources ?

    Did you even read my post? 480,000 to 1 odds of dying in a terrorist attack in France.
    What does that have to do with the question of the specific risk, pertaining to a specific timeframe, with a specific heightened security alert in the destination.

    Feel free to rebutt my claim of the above odds.My statement that you are more likely to die getting to France still stands.
    Less bluffing and more rational thought in future, please.
    :rolleyes:


  • #6889
    SpaceSasqwatch
    Closed Accounts Posts: 768 ✭✭✭SpaceSasqwatch


    fed up sick and tired wrote: »
    IS this an example of the sniping and personal remarks that are not welcome on the thread, as we have been told ?
    Maybe report the post rather than looking for thanks.

    Or you could just use your superior powers of intellect and rational thought to prove I'm wrong.

    My statement: you're more likely to die travelling to france than from a terrorist attack.Take your time.


  • #6890
    SpaceSasqwatch
    Closed Accounts Posts: 768 ✭✭✭SpaceSasqwatch


    fed up sick and tired wrote: »
    ....- but there is no justification for the risk to which the Islamist scum is subjecting you, and no corresponding benefit to you of being the object of their wrath.
    and please dont reply with similar rubbish.


  • #6891
    fed up sick and tired
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,015 ✭✭✭fed up sick and tired


    SpaceSasqwatch wrote: »

    My statement: you're more likely to die travelling to france than from a terrorist attack.

    My statement: a person's odds of being harmed automatically increase, if a specific security threat pertains in a place at the very point in time you intend to travel there.

    Thus, generalities plucked from the internet are meaningless. We needn't be Data Scientists to comprehend that.


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  • #6892
    The Randy Riverbeast
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,770 ✭✭✭The Randy Riverbeast


    walshyn93 wrote: »
    Where is the logic in combining all plane crashes in an overly broad sample group when the majority of plane crashes (at least higher proportion) are private planes with inexperienced pilots or shoddy safety compliance as opposed to commercial jets on major airlines in major countries which are maintained to the highest safety standards imaginable?

    There's certainly no logic in isolating the terror threat in Paris from all other crimes you could ordinarily be a victim of such as mugging, car jacking etc. as though the risk of terrorism doesn't compound the usual dangers.

    I'd like to know how your chances of dying as a tourist who would likely be at a public place or event in Paris on Nov 13th stack up against your chances of dying on a routine 1hr flight. Your overly simplistic analysis based on dinner table statistics isn't very informative.

    It's meant to be simplistic. If a person wants an entire lecture on probability and statistics then I would recommend going to someone who has prepared one. Of course you would have a higher chance of being killed in a city were a terrorist event is occurring than a routine flight. You're even more ****ed when you compare being in a city during a terrorist attack and a non routine flight. When a plane is going down you tend to be really ****ed. You take into account the frequency of events and how often a person would be in that position when you go above the dinner table statistics.


  • #6893
    bodhrandude
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,995 ✭✭✭✭bodhrandude


    Nodin wrote: »
    Scanner islamists?

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/e/e9/Scanners.jpg

    If you want to get into it, you got to get out of it. (Hawkwind 1982)



  • #6894
    walshyn93
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,685 ✭✭✭walshyn93


    The Randy Riverbeast wrote: »
    It's meant to be simplistic. If a person wants an entire lecture on probability and statistics then I would recommend going to someone who has prepared one. Of course you would have a higher chance of being killed in a city were a terrorist event is occurring than a routine flight. You're even more ****ed when you compare being in a city during a terrorist attack and a non routine flight. When a plane is going down you tend to be really ****ed. You take into account the frequency of events and how often a person would be in that position when you go above the dinner table statistics.

    Of course. It's a simplistic reductive statement whose intent is to minimise a person's rational fears and convince them that they're paranoid for thinking a certain thing. It's gaslighting.


  • #6895
    The Randy Riverbeast
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,770 ✭✭✭The Randy Riverbeast


    walshyn93 wrote: »
    Of course. It's a simplistic reductive statement whose intent is to minimise a person's rational fears and convince them that they're paranoid for thinking a certain thing. It's gaslighting.


    Are you accusing me of mentally abusing a person? If so I encourage you to report me to the mods.


  • #6896
    GAAman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,370 ✭✭✭GAAman


    Sorry to break up the petty bickering and statistics lessons but did someone say they were going to Paris and worried about a similar attack taking place?

    I was there a few days after the last attack, the attackers were still at large and still in Paris but I never felt safer. Armed police and army everywhere and apparently it is still the case as of a few weeks ago when a friend was there on business.


  • #6897
    conorhal
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,080 ✭✭✭conorhal


    GAAman wrote: »
    Sorry to break up the petty bickering and statistics lessons but did someone say they were going to Paris and worried about a similar attack taking place?

    I was there a few days after the last attack, the attackers were still at large and still in Paris but I never felt safer. Armed police and army everywhere and apparently it is still the case as of a few weeks ago when a friend was there on business.

    It's pretty sad that 'feeling secure' now requires a guy with a machine gun on every corner, hurrah for multiculturalism and the police state it has precipitated!


  • #6898
    Nodin
    Closed Accounts Posts: 46,938 ✭✭✭✭Nodin


    walshyn93 wrote: »
    Of course. It's a simplistic reductive statement whose intent is to minimise a person's rational fears and convince them that they're paranoid for thinking a certain thing. It's gaslighting.

    Fair enough, I apologise. You are correct - muslims are out to kill us all and they are under your bed.


  • #6899
    cowboyBuilder
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,419 ✭✭✭cowboyBuilder


    Nodin wrote: »
    Fair enough, I apologise. You are correct - muslims are out to kill us all and they are under your bed.

    Yep, finally you see sense :D


  • #6900
    JimmySnails
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 171 ✭✭JimmySnails


    BERLIN (Reuters) – German police have raided the home of two Syrian brothers with links to the militant group Islamic State (IS), suspecting that they were preparing an attack, prosecutors in Frankfurt said on Thursday.

    Police confiscated an air pistol, electronic storage devices, mobile phones and 14,000 euros (£10,952) in cash but did not arrest the brothers, 21 and 30 years old.

    Prosecutors did not give more information on the exact nature of the suspected crime, which they called a “serious act of violent subversion”.

    The older brother had entered Germany in February 2015 with a forged passport obtained by IS, a crime for which he was sentenced and fined last year.

    Prosecutors said that in social media postings he had promoted the militant group, threatened German authorities and justified last November’s attacks in Paris.

    The younger brother published a picture of himself on social media that showed him sitting in a “luxury car belonging to his brother” sporting a pistol, the prosecutor’s office said.

    Germany has been on alert since militants with links to Islamic State killed 130 people in Paris in November.

    http://www.euronews.com/newswires/3167661-germany-searches-home-of-two-syrians-suspected-of-planning-attack/

    It's a bit mind-boggling how the guy with the fake passport obtained by ISIS is not under arrest.


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  • #6901
    cowboyBuilder
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,419 ✭✭✭cowboyBuilder


    JimmySnails wrote: »
    http://www.euronews.com/newswires/3167661-germany-searches-home-of-two-syrians-suspected-of-planning-attack/

    It's a bit mind-boggling how the guy with the fake passport obtained by ISIS is not under arrest.

    Because it would be "racist" ...


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