Spring Weather 2016

sryanbruen · 14-02-2016 7:57pm #1

The milder weather towards next weekend is giving me Spring vibes! What does everybody think what Spring will give to us?

A Spring like 2007 / 11?

OR

A Spring like 2006 / 13?

My predictions

March - Very dull, cold and wet. - Dullest March on record
April - Very cold, dull and wet. Potential cold snap. - Coldest April on record and maybe dullest in over 24 years
May - Average temperatures but sunny and dry. - Nothing remarkable

^ I hope not! LOL

JCX BXC · 14-02-2016 10:41pm

I don't care much for Spring, but I do hope May is nice.

sryanbruen · 14-02-2016 10:46pm

Carnacalla wrote: »

I don't care much for Spring, but I do hope May is nice.

Yep after a long run of poor ones since 2010

M.T. Cranium · 14-02-2016 11:31pm

I think it's likely to be close to what you've suggested, although I would expect perhaps a bit more sunshine in March because of a northeast component to the flow at times. Long warm spells are more likely in May and the summer months given the hemispheric pattern changes underway. One of the better analogues at present is 2013. That is meant to apply to the present and future and not to the lead-up.

For the record, I will say this:

March -- mixture of cool, dry spells with possible local snow streamers, and near normal spells of cloudy sometimes rainy spells, temperatures 1 to 2 below normal.

April -- dull, wet with one or two brief warm spells, temperatures close to normal.

May -- warm and dry, temperatures 1 to 2 above normal.

summer -- one of the better ones, perhaps almost as good as 2013 or 1995.

and next winter of course will be fabulous. Next winter always is.

sryanbruen · 14-02-2016 11:40pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I think it's likely to be close to what you've suggested, although I would expect perhaps a bit more sunshine in March because of a northeast component to the flow at times. Long warm spells are more likely in May and the summer months given the hemispheric pattern changes underway. One of the better analogues at present is 2013. That is meant to apply to the present and future and not to the lead-up.

For the record, I will say this:

March -- mixture of cool, dry spells with possible local snow streamers, and near normal spells of cloudy sometimes rainy spells, temperatures 1 to 2 below normal.

April -- dull, wet with one or two brief warm spells, temperatures close to normal.

May -- warm and dry, temperatures 1 to 2 above normal.

summer -- one of the better ones, perhaps almost as good as 2013 or 1995.

and next winter of course will be fabulous. Next winter always is.

So March is literally a repeat of 2015 except even colder? I say March and April are going to be dull given how sunny these months were last year (April 2015 was the sunniest on record).

sryanbruen · 14-02-2016 11:44pm

I see some comparisons of what you're gettin' at alright

Winter 1994 / 95 - very wet, dull and warm
Summer 1995 - warmest and sunniest on record. very dry too
Winter 1995 / 96 - very cold, sunny and relatively wet

Winter 2013 / 14 - very wet, average sunshine and warm
Summer 2014 - warm, sunny and dry in most places
Winter 2014 / 15 - very sunny, wet and cool but not exceptionally so

Spring 1995 was relatively cool
Spring 2014 was very warm

^ See a contrast here though

nacho libre · 15-02-2016 12:01am

I think March will be colder than average, though not near as cold as March 2013. A lot of you will be saying if only we had this pattern in January.

April will be cloudy and cool.

and the summer is going to be a good one overall, however the north west will have rain and strong winds from time to time

...and then next winter we will see a Greenland express, courtesy of an 1065 high pressure system over Greenland, which plunges us into a freeze for two solid months. M.T. Cranium will be desperately trying to offer hope to the snow haters that there is an end in sight to the big freeze:D

ronnie3585 · 15-02-2016 12:06am

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

summer -- one of the better ones, perhaps almost as good as 2013 or 1995.

sryanbruen · 15-02-2016 12:52pm

ronnie3585 wrote: »

I hope so.

My predictions for Summer since we're already talking 'bout it

June - Mostly dry, sunny and warm but thundery downpours at times
July - Very dry, sunny and warm
August - Relatively wet, warm and sunny

Jpmarn · 15-02-2016 11:24pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

I hope so.

My predictions for Summer since we're already talking 'bout it

June - Mostly dry, sunny and warm but thundery downpours at times
July - Very dry, sunny and warm
August - Relatively wet, warm and sunny

If your prediction is right it would make another classic summer.

More on topic April is a very important month in my farming. Temperatures around normal or above you're in business for grass growth. Temperatures below normal or the weather is persistently bad you going to struggle with grass growth for not just for that month. But for the rest of the year irrespective of what weather you get. In 2015 we had a nice April and a poor summer but we were blessed with good growth for the whole year to November. In 2013 we had a bad March with April not much better. We had a fantastic summer but our grass growth struggled and we had poor crops for hay and silage.

sryanbruen · 16-02-2016 9:17am

Jpmarn wrote: »

If your prediction is right it would make another classic summer.

More on topic April is a very important month in my farming. Temperatures around normal or above you're in business for grass growth. Temperatures below normal or the weather is persistently bad you going to struggle with grass growth for not just for that month. But for the rest of the year irrespective of what weather you get. In 2015 we had a nice April and a poor summer but we were blessed with good growth for the whole year to November. In 2013 we had a bad March with April not much better. We had a fantastic summer but our grass growth struggled and we had poor crops for hay and silage.

Yeah I think nobody wants what we expect to take place in Spring - it's just a prediction. I hope I'm wrong!

joujoujou · 16-02-2016 2:12pm

In my opinion - spring will be very similar to the winter we have at the moment.

And I don't care about may - I'll be somewhere else. :cool:

sryanbruen · 16-02-2016 6:39pm

If April doesn't turn out as I predicted (a terrible one), I hope it's like last year!

Mafra · 17-02-2016 2:15am

Actually cannot believe my eyes. Predictions of a good summer! Officially my new fav thread.

This winter has been relentless. Feels like the longest winter I can remember with everyone in hibernation. Literally can count the days it was ok to be outside.
Come on spring summer!

power pants · 17-02-2016 8:23am

relentless as in mild?

Clonmel1000 · 17-02-2016 8:32am

power pants wrote: »

relentless as in mild?

Relentless as in being wet.

sryanbruen · 17-02-2016 11:16am

power pants wrote: »

relentless as in mild?

Mild and wet

Mafra · 17-02-2016 12:11pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

Mild and wet

Oh sorry, relentless as in wind and rain. Very few days that have been crisp, bright winter days or even just cold dry days, never mind the bright.

Mafra · 17-02-2016 12:12pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

Mild and wet

Oh sorry, relentless as in wind and rain. Very few days that have been crisp, bright winter days or even just cold dry days, never mind the bright.

JCX BXC · 17-02-2016 1:07pm

Relentless suggests some type of long suffering. Mild doesn't fit that equation.

The rain and wind certainly has been relentless, although I still think the constant storms of 2 or 3 winters/springs ago was worse.

sryanbruen · 17-02-2016 3:05pm

Carnacalla wrote: »

Relentless suggests some type of long suffering. Mild doesn't fit that equation.

The rain and wind certainly has been relentless, although I still think the constant storms of 2 or 3 winters/springs ago was worse.

I think Storm Desmond and Darwin were the worst

sryanbruen · 17-02-2016 5:54pm

If May is at least pleasant compared to the ones from 2011 - 2015, I don't care what Spring brings even a cold March! It's time for May to be a pleasant month after this period of long horrible Mays. My ratings of past Mays:

2015 - 1/10
2014 - 6/10 (some days weren't half bad but still a bit low)
2013 - 3/10
2012 - 4/10
2011 - 4/10
2010 - 9/10
2009 - 8/10
2008 - 9/10
2007 - 7/10
2006 - 3/10
2005 - 4/10
2004 - 6/10
2003 - 3/10
2002 - 1/10
2001 - 9/10
2000 - 10/10 - the perfect May!

JCX BXC · 17-02-2016 5:56pm

What was 2000 like?

sryanbruen · 17-02-2016 6:01pm

Carnacalla wrote: »

What was 2000 like?

It started off very dry and sunny. Then on the 16th (like yesterday, Tuesday 16th :pac:), heavy rain affected many with Kilkenny in particular recording over 41mm of rainfall. However, this day was the odd one out and the month turned out dry in most places (wetter in some places largely due to this day) and it was the sunniest May on record at Dublin Airport (still to this day). It was warm also.

sryanbruen · 17-02-2016 6:13pm

Aprils over the same period

2015: 9/10 (blame the cold nights and the cold end)
2014: 8/10
2013: 5/10 (average)
2012: 1/10 (very nasty, cold and wet April)
2011: 10/10 (there was nothing bad about this month! I only had 2 wet days whilst some recorded just 0.3mm and the month was exceptionally warm and sunny, even better than some pleasant Summer months!)
2010: 9/10
2009: 4/10
2008: 5/10
2007: 10/10 (how could you dislike this?)
2006: 7/10
2005: 3/10
2004: 5/10
2003: 8/10 (if it wasn't so wet in the south, it would be 10/10)
2002: 4/10
2001: 4/10
2000: 2/10

^ 2007, 2010, 2011 and 2015 are very memorable!

sryanbruen · 17-02-2016 6:17pm

Marches over the same period

2015: 6/10
2014: 7/10
2013: 1/10
2012: 10/10
2011: 10/10
2010: 6/10
2009: 7/10
2008: 3/10
2007: 8/10
2006: 1/10
2005: 6/10
2004: 6/10
2003: 10/10
2002: 7/10
2001: 3/10
2000: 7/10 (if it were sunnier, it'd be higher)

sryanbruen · 17-02-2016 6:24pm

Now Spring as a whole over the same period

2015: 5/10 (without May, it would be 8/10!)
2014: 7/10 (very benign and I like it that way!)
2013: 1/10 (I think we all agree here?)
2012: 5/10 (without April AT LEAST, it would be 7/10 even with the horrible May)
2011: 8/10 (the best Spring with 2007)
2010: 7/10
2009: 6/10
2008: 6/10
2007: 8/10
2006: 3/10
2005: 4/10
2004: 5/10 (very average Spring and nothing exciting)
2003: 6/10 (without May, it would be 9/10! - the best Spring)
2002: 4/10
2001: 5/10 (March was horrible, April was horrible, May was wonderful - so average!)
2000: 6/10 (nearly the same as 2001 except March was better)

sryanbruen · 17-02-2016 6:24pm

Anybody disagree with any of my top Spring months and seasons that should be repeated this year?

alentejo · 17-02-2016 9:11pm

just a thought. Normally when you get a good May, the June and July that follow are awful. No stats to back up, its like summer comes early and is done by June. May in 2014 was cool and not up to much, but come June and July, weather totally turned for the better.

sryanbruen · 17-02-2016 9:19pm

alentejo wrote: »

just a thought. Normally when you get a good May, the June and July that follow are awful. No stats to back up, its like summer comes early and is done by June. May in 2014 was cool and not up to much, but come June and July, weather totally turned for the better.

May 2014 was actually warmer than normal (largely due to the night temperatures). I remember the one day, May 17th which was very pleasant here and it was a day that I spent out enjoying the weather and I think this little outing made it memorable to me. It was also my nanny's second birthday away from us - which makes it even more memorable.

I recorded 21.4c on this day.

May 2014 recorded a mean temperature of 11.4c here which is +0.6c above the average.

Max. temperatures - 15.6c (-0.3c below the LTA)
Min. temperatures - 11.3c (+2.3c above the LTA)

^ I hope these stats make it clearer to you?

Let me see about that of May being pleasant and June / July being poor

2010 - June was brilliant, July was awful (so a mix)
2009 - June was alright (Winter on the 6th but Summer during the first few days and the last few), July was just plain terrible (mix again)
2008 - June was poor (not exceptionally so), July was very poor (so yep!)
2007 - June and July were very poor (yep)
2004 - June was alright (a bit poor but different from place to place), July was cool and wet but sunny in most places (so poor) (yep)
2001 - June was poor (not exceptionally so), July was poor (not exceptionally so) (so yeah)
2000 - June was poor whilst July was better (not exceptionally so) (kinda)

^ For the most part, you're actually correct

sryanbruen · 20-02-2016 1:01pm

Thumbs up for a benign Spring anybody?

Comhrá · 20-02-2016 2:40pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

Thumbs up for a benign Spring anybody?

Well, I'm definitely on board! If this present pattern lasts much longer I fear I'll need counselling. :pac:

joujoujou · 20-02-2016 4:43pm

sryanbruen · 21-02-2016 1:28pm

Colder than normal Spring months since 2000 at Grange with deviations of average temperature

May 2015: 9.1 (-1.7)
Apr 2015: 7.5 (-0.7)
Mar 2015: 6.4 (-0.8)
May 2013: 10.0 (-0.8)
Apr 2013: 6.1 (-2.1)
Mar 2013: 2.3 (-4.9)
May 2012: 10.1 (-0.7)
Apr 2012: 6.9 (-1.3)
Mar 2010: 3.9 (-3.3)
Apr 2008: 8.1 (-0.1)
Mar 2008: 6.9 (-0.3)
Mar 2006: 4.8 (-2.4)
May 2005: 9.9 (-0.9)
Apr 2001: 7.9 (-0.3)
Mar 2001: 4.6 (-2.6)
Apr 2000: 7.4 (-0.8)

We have a lot of cold Spring months, I really hope I'm wrong with my prediction. I want a warm Spring like 2007! BUT NOT A BAD SUMMER either...

sryanbruen · 22-02-2016 2:05pm

It really feels like Spring today!

Comhrá · 22-02-2016 4:44pm

Sure does! Did a little Spring cleaning today. Bottles & jars to the bottle-bank, swept the driveway, washed some external windows....tidied a small flowerbed.

yellowlabrador · 22-02-2016 6:39pm

I've been out in the garden too. I'm hoping to make the most of this week.

sryanbruen · 23-02-2016 7:26pm

I found that all the top 5 strongest El Ninos had a colder than normal April - looks very likely to me.

sryanbruen · 27-02-2016 7:44pm

Spring already looking very wet on Tuesday

Clonmel1000 · 01-03-2016 8:50am

Mild wet start to spring. Quelle suprise! Was driving a bit yesterday the land is saturated a good dry spring was never as badly needed.

icesnowfrost · 01-03-2016 9:25am

Great forecast from MT. Widespread snow tonight and tomorrow. Hope sp

JCX BXC · 01-03-2016 9:26am

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Great forecast from MT. Widespread snow tonight and tomorrow. Hope sp

Spring snow!

JCX BXC · 01-03-2016 9:27am

There's a weather warning thread? Would be nice if someone made reference to it!

Rock Lesnar · 01-03-2016 9:34am

Carnacalla wrote: »

Spring snow!

melts quickly

ytpe2r5bxkn0c1 · 01-03-2016 9:49am

March in like a lion and out like a lamb?

More wind! Wind speed 46.7 kmh at the moment pushing drizzle along. One of those horrible mornings without the weather actually being that bad. 10.2c, so mild anyway.

JCX BXC · 01-03-2016 9:51am

Wesley Fat Stationery wrote: »

March in like a lion and out like a lamb?

More wind! Wind speed 46.7 kmh at the moment pushing drizzle along. One of those horrible mornings without the weather actually being that bad. 10.2c, so mild anyway.

Watch those temps drop significantly by evening!

ytpe2r5bxkn0c1 · 01-03-2016 12:07pm

Carnacalla wrote: »

Watch those temps drop significantly by evening!

I'm expecting 1 or 2c overnight and up to 6c tomorrow.

km79 · 01-03-2016 12:23pm

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Great forecast from MT. Widespread snow tonight and tomorrow. Hope sp

again the forecast thread has moved onto a new page so I won't be able to see it for 3 days
would someone post it here or PM me please

JCX BXC · 01-03-2016 1:14pm

http://touch.boards.ie/thread/2057567557/1/#post98912864

Thread about the wind.

Oscar Bravo · 01-03-2016 3:10pm

1334
update STATUS ORANGE

Wind Warning for Galway, Mayo, Clare, Cork, Kerry and Limerick
Westerly winds, veering northwest will increase to mean speeds of 65 to 75km/h with gusts of 110 to 130km/h at times overnight in exposed areas especially in the coastal fringes with high sea also.

Issued:Tuesday 01 March 2016 13:34
Valid:Tuesday 01 March 2016 22:00 to Wednesday 02 March 2016 08:00

JCX BXC · 01-03-2016 4:19pm

Why was the event thread locked without explanation?

Spring Weather 2016

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