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Spring Weather 2016

  • 14-02-2016 6:57pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 12,614 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen
    Registered User


    The milder weather towards next weekend is giving me Spring vibes! What does everybody think what Spring will give to us?

    A Spring like 2007 / 11?

    OR

    A Spring like 2006 / 13?

    My predictions

    March - Very dull, cold and wet. - Dullest March on record
    April - Very cold, dull and wet. Potential cold snap. - Coldest April on record and maybe dullest in over 24 years
    May - Average temperatures but sunny and dry. - Nothing remarkable

    ^ I hope not! LOL

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 17,690 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC
    Registered User


    I don't care much for Spring, but I do hope May is nice.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,614 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen
    Registered User


    Carnacalla wrote: »
    I don't care much for Spring, but I do hope May is nice.

    Yep after a long run of poor ones since 2010

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,349 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium
    Registered User


    I think it's likely to be close to what you've suggested, although I would expect perhaps a bit more sunshine in March because of a northeast component to the flow at times. Long warm spells are more likely in May and the summer months given the hemispheric pattern changes underway. One of the better analogues at present is 2013. That is meant to apply to the present and future and not to the lead-up.

    For the record, I will say this:

    March -- mixture of cool, dry spells with possible local snow streamers, and near normal spells of cloudy sometimes rainy spells, temperatures 1 to 2 below normal.

    April -- dull, wet with one or two brief warm spells, temperatures close to normal.

    May -- warm and dry, temperatures 1 to 2 above normal.

    summer -- one of the better ones, perhaps almost as good as 2013 or 1995.

    and next winter of course will be fabulous. Next winter always is.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,614 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen
    Registered User


    I think it's likely to be close to what you've suggested, although I would expect perhaps a bit more sunshine in March because of a northeast component to the flow at times. Long warm spells are more likely in May and the summer months given the hemispheric pattern changes underway. One of the better analogues at present is 2013. That is meant to apply to the present and future and not to the lead-up.

    For the record, I will say this:

    March -- mixture of cool, dry spells with possible local snow streamers, and near normal spells of cloudy sometimes rainy spells, temperatures 1 to 2 below normal.

    April -- dull, wet with one or two brief warm spells, temperatures close to normal.

    May -- warm and dry, temperatures 1 to 2 above normal.

    summer -- one of the better ones, perhaps almost as good as 2013 or 1995.

    and next winter of course will be fabulous. Next winter always is.

    So March is literally a repeat of 2015 except even colder? I say March and April are going to be dull given how sunny these months were last year (April 2015 was the sunniest on record).

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,614 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen
    Registered User


    I see some comparisons of what you're gettin' at alright

    Winter 1994 / 95 - very wet, dull and warm
    Summer 1995 - warmest and sunniest on record. very dry too
    Winter 1995 / 96 - very cold, sunny and relatively wet

    Winter 2013 / 14 - very wet, average sunshine and warm
    Summer 2014 - warm, sunny and dry in most places
    Winter 2014 / 15 - very sunny, wet and cool but not exceptionally so

    Spring 1995 was relatively cool
    Spring 2014 was very warm

    ^ See a contrast here though

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,360 ✭✭✭✭ nacho libre
    Registered User


    I think March will be colder than average, though not near as cold as March 2013. A lot of you will be saying if only we had this pattern in January.

    April will be cloudy and cool.

    and the summer is going to be a good one overall, however the north west will have rain and strong winds from time to time

    ...and then next winter we will see a Greenland express, courtesy of an 1065 high pressure system over Greenland, which plunges us into a freeze for two solid months. M.T. Cranium will be desperately trying to offer hope to the snow haters that there is an end in sight to the big freeze:D


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,675 ✭✭✭ ronnie3585
    Registered User


    summer -- one of the better ones, perhaps almost as good as 2013 or 1995.

    58516553.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,614 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen
    Registered User


    ronnie3585 wrote: »
    58516553.jpg

    I hope so.

    My predictions for Summer since we're already talking 'bout it

    June - Mostly dry, sunny and warm but thundery downpours at times
    July - Very dry, sunny and warm
    August - Relatively wet, warm and sunny

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,412 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn
    Registered User


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    I hope so.

    My predictions for Summer since we're already talking 'bout it

    June - Mostly dry, sunny and warm but thundery downpours at times
    July - Very dry, sunny and warm
    August - Relatively wet, warm and sunny

    If your prediction is right it would make another classic summer.

    More on topic April is a very important month in my farming. Temperatures around normal or above you're in business for grass growth. Temperatures below normal or the weather is persistently bad you going to struggle with grass growth for not just for that month. But for the rest of the year irrespective of what weather you get. In 2015 we had a nice April and a poor summer but we were blessed with good growth for the whole year to November. In 2013 we had a bad March with April not much better. We had a fantastic summer but our grass growth struggled and we had poor crops for hay and silage.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,614 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen
    Registered User


    Jpmarn wrote: »
    If your prediction is right it would make another classic summer.

    More on topic April is a very important month in my farming. Temperatures around normal or above you're in business for grass growth. Temperatures below normal or the weather is persistently bad you going to struggle with grass growth for not just for that month. But for the rest of the year irrespective of what weather you get. In 2015 we had a nice April and a poor summer but we were blessed with good growth for the whole year to November. In 2013 we had a bad March with April not much better. We had a fantastic summer but our grass growth struggled and we had poor crops for hay and silage.

    Yeah I think nobody wants what we expect to take place in Spring - it's just a prediction. I hope I'm wrong!

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,257 ✭✭✭✭ joujoujou
    Registered User


    In my opinion - spring will be very similar to the winter we have at the moment. deszcz.gif

    And I don't care about may - I'll be somewhere else. :cool:


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,614 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen
    Registered User


    If April doesn't turn out as I predicted (a terrible one), I hope it's like last year!

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 104 ✭✭ Mafra
    Registered User


    Actually cannot believe my eyes. Predictions of a good summer! Officially my new fav thread. <3
    This winter has been relentless. Feels like the longest winter I can remember with everyone in hibernation. Literally can count the days it was ok to be outside.
    Come on spring summer!


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,907 power pants
    Registered User


    relentless as in mild?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,047 Clonmel1000


    relentless as in mild?

    Relentless as in being wet.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,614 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen
    Registered User


    relentless as in mild?

    Mild and wet

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 104 ✭✭ Mafra
    Registered User


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Mild and wet
    Oh sorry, relentless as in wind and rain. Very few days that have been crisp, bright winter days or even just cold dry days, never mind the bright.


  • Registered Users Posts: 104 ✭✭ Mafra
    Registered User


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Mild and wet
    Oh sorry, relentless as in wind and rain. Very few days that have been crisp, bright winter days or even just cold dry days, never mind the bright.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,690 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC
    Registered User


    Relentless suggests some type of long suffering. Mild doesn't fit that equation.

    The rain and wind certainly has been relentless, although I still think the constant storms of 2 or 3 winters/springs ago was worse.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,614 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen
    Registered User


    Carnacalla wrote: »
    Relentless suggests some type of long suffering. Mild doesn't fit that equation.

    The rain and wind certainly has been relentless, although I still think the constant storms of 2 or 3 winters/springs ago was worse.

    I think Storm Desmond and Darwin were the worst

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,614 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen
    Registered User


    If May is at least pleasant compared to the ones from 2011 - 2015, I don't care what Spring brings even a cold March! It's time for May to be a pleasant month after this period of long horrible Mays. My ratings of past Mays:

    2015 - 1/10
    2014 - 6/10 (some days weren't half bad but still a bit low)
    2013 - 3/10
    2012 - 4/10
    2011 - 4/10
    2010 - 9/10
    2009 - 8/10
    2008 - 9/10
    2007 - 7/10
    2006 - 3/10
    2005 - 4/10
    2004 - 6/10
    2003 - 3/10
    2002 - 1/10
    2001 - 9/10
    2000 - 10/10 - the perfect May!

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,690 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC
    Registered User


    What was 2000 like?


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,614 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen
    Registered User


    Carnacalla wrote: »
    What was 2000 like?

    It started off very dry and sunny. Then on the 16th (like yesterday, Tuesday 16th :pac:), heavy rain affected many with Kilkenny in particular recording over 41mm of rainfall. However, this day was the odd one out and the month turned out dry in most places (wetter in some places largely due to this day) and it was the sunniest May on record at Dublin Airport (still to this day). It was warm also.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,614 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen
    Registered User


    Aprils over the same period

    2015: 9/10 (blame the cold nights and the cold end)
    2014: 8/10
    2013: 5/10 (average)
    2012: 1/10 (very nasty, cold and wet April)
    2011: 10/10 (there was nothing bad about this month! I only had 2 wet days whilst some recorded just 0.3mm and the month was exceptionally warm and sunny, even better than some pleasant Summer months!)
    2010: 9/10
    2009: 4/10
    2008: 5/10
    2007: 10/10 (how could you dislike this?)
    2006: 7/10
    2005: 3/10
    2004: 5/10
    2003: 8/10 (if it wasn't so wet in the south, it would be 10/10)
    2002: 4/10
    2001: 4/10
    2000: 2/10

    ^ 2007, 2010, 2011 and 2015 are very memorable!

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,614 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen
    Registered User


    Marches over the same period

    2015: 6/10
    2014: 7/10
    2013: 1/10
    2012: 10/10
    2011: 10/10
    2010: 6/10
    2009: 7/10
    2008: 3/10
    2007: 8/10
    2006: 1/10
    2005: 6/10
    2004: 6/10
    2003: 10/10
    2002: 7/10
    2001: 3/10
    2000: 7/10 (if it were sunnier, it'd be higher)

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,614 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen
    Registered User


    Now Spring as a whole over the same period

    2015: 5/10 (without May, it would be 8/10!)
    2014: 7/10 (very benign and I like it that way!)
    2013: 1/10 (I think we all agree here?)
    2012: 5/10 (without April AT LEAST, it would be 7/10 even with the horrible May)
    2011: 8/10 (the best Spring with 2007)
    2010: 7/10
    2009: 6/10
    2008: 6/10
    2007: 8/10
    2006: 3/10
    2005: 4/10
    2004: 5/10 (very average Spring and nothing exciting)
    2003: 6/10 (without May, it would be 9/10! - the best Spring)
    2002: 4/10
    2001: 5/10 (March was horrible, April was horrible, May was wonderful - so average!)
    2000: 6/10 (nearly the same as 2001 except March was better)

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,614 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen
    Registered User


    Anybody disagree with any of my top Spring months and seasons that should be repeated this year?

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 759 ✭✭✭ alentejo
    Registered User


    just a thought. Normally when you get a good May, the June and July that follow are awful. No stats to back up, its like summer comes early and is done by June. May in 2014 was cool and not up to much, but come June and July, weather totally turned for the better.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,614 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen
    Registered User


    alentejo wrote: »
    just a thought. Normally when you get a good May, the June and July that follow are awful. No stats to back up, its like summer comes early and is done by June. May in 2014 was cool and not up to much, but come June and July, weather totally turned for the better.

    May 2014 was actually warmer than normal (largely due to the night temperatures). I remember the one day, May 17th which was very pleasant here and it was a day that I spent out enjoying the weather and I think this little outing made it memorable to me. It was also my nanny's second birthday away from us - which makes it even more memorable.

    I recorded 21.4c on this day.

    May 2014 recorded a mean temperature of 11.4c here which is +0.6c above the average.

    Max. temperatures - 15.6c (-0.3c below the LTA)
    Min. temperatures - 11.3c (+2.3c above the LTA)

    ^ I hope these stats make it clearer to you?

    Let me see about that of May being pleasant and June / July being poor

    2010 - June was brilliant, July was awful (so a mix)
    2009 - June was alright (Winter on the 6th but Summer during the first few days and the last few), July was just plain terrible (mix again)
    2008 - June was poor (not exceptionally so), July was very poor (so yep!)
    2007 - June and July were very poor (yep)
    2004 - June was alright (a bit poor but different from place to place), July was cool and wet but sunny in most places (so poor) (yep)
    2001 - June was poor (not exceptionally so), July was poor (not exceptionally so) (so yeah)
    2000 - June was poor whilst July was better (not exceptionally so) (kinda)

    ^ For the most part, you're actually correct

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,614 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen
    Registered User


    Thumbs up for a benign Spring anybody?

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



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