Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

blackdog1 · 03-02-2016 05:30PM

Dairygold price fixing form arrived today with a choice of 3 boxes to tick. Thinking about going 15% as a few extra grand in a low milk price situation is worth more than a few lost in a good milk price situation.

Dawggone · 03-02-2016 06:44PM

I've just spent the afternoon with my processor...
Long and short is they think that we could be entering an era of volatility, but with a newer and lower base line. The solution is organic... 8% growth yoy and sustainable...blah blah.
In fairness to them they do have a good eye on margin, added value, and demand.

There is 11cpl of a price differential between organic and ordinary Atm and starting in April they are now going to be paying 42cpl for organic. There was a strong offer of cash (support) for the 3yrs changeover period.

Lookit, I know I was being schmoozed (cheese wine pastis) but they were selling it well...

Thinking on trying a herd...but the downside is the instant devaluation of the land supporting that herd...

Farmer Ed · 03-02-2016 07:16PM

Price fixing sounds great. But I guess as farmers we forget that everyone else in the industry have 100% of their wages fixed. We only get what is left over after everyone else gets paid, including the banks. Indeed it is not so long ago that the ICOS were complaining that we are being paid too much.

If you stop and think about it at the end of the day, there is only a certain amount to be divided amongst farmers. So if you over pay someone for 15% of their milk then to balance the books you will have to underpay them for the other 75% of their milk, or if not take it from someone else's milk. Either way it will just be an exercise of robbing Peter to pay Paul and in the process of doing so, possibly tying both Peter and Paul down to even more terms and conditions.

Id say read the small print. "Terms and conditions may apply, Milk prices may rise as well as fall" Co Op guarantees of income only extend to everyone outside the farm gate. Co Ops are licenced by the ICOS who are a law on to themselves, so anyone with a problem can just go and get stuffed. Always read the label.

kowtow · 03-02-2016 07:19PM

Dawggone wrote: »

There is 11cpl of a price differential between organic and ordinary Atm and starting in April they are now going to be paying 42cpl for organic. There was a strong offer of cash (support) for the 3yrs changeover period.

Lookit, I know I was being schmoozed (cheese wine pastis) but they were selling it well...

Thinking on trying a herd...but the downside is the instant devaluation of the land supporting that herd...

Isn't French land priced as organic anyway

Organic keeps nagging at the back of my mind for Ireland. I'd have serious reservations about doing it personally (because in theory I don't need the price premium and I hate the idea of farming a label...) but on the other hand....

I can't think of a country which is nearer the ideal of organics than Ireland.. and yet we have such a low take-up. Would organic milk from Ireland compete in the UK liquid milk market? I know some will say that food miles defeat the purpose but I'm sure Tesco are already running a few bottles of organic milk further around the UK than the distance, for example, from Cork to Bristol.

The takeup of organic food in the US (looking at chains like wholefoods) is a very real development, no longer just a niche.

If we are honest with ourselves, what stops more Irish farmers doing it? Do we really believe that the market just isn't there (organic baby milk anyone?) ... or is it the Irish preference for quantity over quality every time, lash out the fertiliser and watch it come in? Our local consumer market trails behind others (UK, USA) in these premium niches, but I don't know if that is a valid reason for not being organic, or simply a reflection of the same attitudes which stop us as producers - is consumer indifference cause, or effect?

It's easy to say the Irish consumer can't afford to buy organic food, but there's no shortage of people queuing up to pay 14% over the UK price in Tesco, or give €3 to a machine for dishwater flavoured "cappuccino" in the local Topaz.

Dawggone · 03-02-2016 08:06PM

kowtow wrote: »

Isn't French land priced as organic anyway

Organic keeps nagging at the back of my mind for Ireland. I'd have serious reservations about doing it personally (because in theory I don't need the price premium and I hate the idea of farming a label...) but on the other hand....

I can't think of a country which is nearer the ideal of organics than Ireland.. and yet we have such a low take-up. Would organic milk from Ireland compete in the UK liquid milk market? I know some will say that food miles defeat the purpose but I'm sure Tesco are already running a few bottles of organic milk further around the UK than the distance, for example, from Cork to Bristol.

The takeup of organic food in the US (looking at chains like wholefoods) is a very real development, no longer just a niche.

If we are honest with ourselves, what stops more Irish farmers doing it? Do we really believe that the market just isn't there (organic baby milk anyone?) ... or is it the Irish preference for quantity over quality every time, lash out the fertiliser and watch it come in? Our local consumer market trails behind others (UK, USA) in these premium niches, but I don't know if that is a valid reason for not being organic, or simply a reflection of the same attitudes which stop us as producers - is consumer indifference cause, or effect?

It's easy to say the Irish consumer can't afford to buy organic food, but there's no shortage of people queuing up to pay 14% over the UK price in Tesco, or give €3 to a machine for dishwater flavoured "cappuccino" in the local Topaz.

+1.
Yes my old soils are worthless!!

The 'organic' thing doesn't sit comfortably on me. A lifetime of pushing the boundaries...I can well remember well the first time I broke the 5ton of wheat per acre barrier.

At present prices the home herd would be €235k p.a better off. Not nickels and dimes.

Tbh I see this organic thing as a 'gimmick', but if that's what the market wants, then give it to them, in spades.

To me, Ireland is in a brilliant position to take advantage of the booming european organic market with the 'green isle' perception by the continentals, but the reliance on high artificial fert usage kills it dead for the ordinary dairy farmer. The industry is not willing (or open) to change tack. All bets are on the 'cheapest producer of bulk products' chips.

I'm divided in my thinking...I'm off now for a large bowl of generic coffee from a trendy chain of 'shopping/lifestyle' experience Americana tripe that passes as excellence.

pedigree 6 · 03-02-2016 08:33PM

blackdog1 wrote: »

Dairygold price fixing form arrived today with a choice of 3 boxes to tick. Thinking about going 15% as a few extra grand in a low milk price situation is worth more than a few lost in a good milk price situation.

Just wondering here why are Dairygold saying a % of milk. Say if you supply 100 litres this year, 15% would be 15 litres. But if you supply 200 litres next year will you be allowed 30 litres or will you be stuck at 15 litres in scheme?

In glanbia it's not % but you put in for a certain amount of litres.

Milked out · 03-02-2016 08:46PM

pedigree 6 wrote: »

Just wondering here why are Dairygold saying a % of milk. Say if you supply 100 litres this year, 15% would be 15 litres. But if you supply 200 litres next year will you be allowed 30 litres or will you be stuck at 15 litres in scheme?

In glanbia it's not % but you put in for a certain amount of litres.

It's based on 2015 calender year supply. 5 10 or 15% of it. So if you supply less this year it could end up being more than 15% of current year supply or if you supply more it ends up being less than 15% of the current year.

kevthegaff · 03-02-2016 09:39PM

What is the price for organic milk here?

whelan2 · 03-02-2016 09:40PM

kevthegaff wrote: »

What is the price for organic milk here?

Is there much of a market for it here?

Dawggone · 03-02-2016 09:56PM

whelan2 wrote: »

Is there much of a market for it here?

More importantly, Whelan, is there much of a market for it abroad?

keep going · 03-02-2016 11:52PM

Dawggone wrote: »

+1.
Yes my old soils are worthless!!

The 'organic' thing doesn't sit comfortably on me. A lifetime of pushing the boundaries...I can well remember well the first time I broke the 5ton of wheat per acre barrier.

At present prices the home herd would be €235k p.a better off. Not nickels and dimes.

Tbh I see this organic thing as a 'gimmick', but if that's what the market wants, then give it to them, in spades.

To me, Ireland is in a brilliant position to take advantage of the booming european organic market with the 'green isle' perception by the continentals, but the reliance on high artificial fert usage kills it dead for the ordinary dairy farmer. The industry is not willing (or open) to change tack. All bets are on the 'cheapest producer of bulk products' chips.

I'm divided in my thinking...I'm off now for a large bowl of generic coffee from a trendy chain of 'shopping/lifestyle' experience Americana tripe that passes as excellence.

Just of curiosity, where does this fit in your strategy

Bass Reeves · 04-02-2016 01:11AM

The issue with organics that I see is branding. From the beef side we see the AA and HE schemes which seem to be a huge success....., for the processors. For farmers the margin is no better. Yes there is more money in the chain but only a fraction trickle's to the farmers.

The AA and HE meat at supermarket sell at a 20-30% premium to other beef. But the farmers receives about 10c/kg for HE and 15c/kg for AA (and in the case off AA there is 5euro/head deduction). This equates to 2.5%- 3% premium over other cattle.

To add insult to injury theses cattle are ideally spec's for UK market. Carcass weight 280-350 and O+ to R+ in configuration. Yet we only get 10% of final premium ????. I see organic's the same way. Every one wins except the farmer.

How much will your output decrease by ??. It may be more than you think. There is no place for HO type cows in such a scheme. The hybrid cow more than likely, and once a day milking in Ireland may be an option. You will really need clover and in organics and some tillage as well. Yes inputs will be lower.

However it may be where you have tillage/dairy farms where the real reward is. Who is to say if your wheat o/p decrease's from 5 to 4 tone/acre where that ton is gone.

Dawggone · 04-02-2016 07:54AM

keep going wrote: »

Just of curiosity, where does this fit in your strategy

Lol.
Strategy?
Ducking and diving?

It seems to be the only growth area in agriculture now, with good returns for farmers and processors. That should be worth a look at.

Farmer Ed · 04-02-2016 08:29AM

Dawggone wrote: »

Lol.
Strategy?
Ducking and diving?

It seems to be the only growth area in agriculture now, with good returns for farmers and processors. That should be worth a look at.

I think the main problem is if too many people get into something then it can quickly get over supplied. We have only one main purchaser of organic milk in this country. The one thing that would guarantee that the arse would fall out of it, is if teagasc were to recommend that everyone should go organic.

I honestly think that half the problems we are facing at the moment are caused by the spreading of the gospel that there was easy money to be made out of milk and everyone needed to expand quickly. Now we have an over supply. It's all very well to blame other countries, but the production of skim in this country has increased by 146%. In spite of us producing some of the best milk in the world. Most of our extra production has gone into skim. A product that is regarded as the poorest grade of commodity, where intervention seems to be its biggest market. This is only kicking the problem down the road. Where was the planning?

We had this before in the early eighties. People were encouraged and even paid to milk more cows and in no they were hit with quotas.

Dawggone · 04-02-2016 08:35AM

Bass Reeves wrote: »

How much will your output decrease by ??. It may be more than you think. There is no place for HO type cows in such a scheme. The hybrid cow more than likely, and once a day milking in Ireland may be an option. You will really need clover and in organics and some tillage as well. Yes inputs will be lower.

However it may be where you have tillage/dairy farms where the real reward is. Who is to say if your wheat o/p decrease's from 5 to 4 tone/acre where that ton is gone.

The output would probably increase because it would make more sense to move from grazing grass to growing clovers/legumes. Cows would be housed 24/7...
Maize would be the same yields as no artificial nitrogen is used.
Clovers and legumes don't need fertilizer.
With those forages I'd expect yields to be comfortably over 11k liters.

I'm going to visit an organic dairy farm in the afternoon where they produce 1.5mill liters. Fact finding mission...

Dawggone · 04-02-2016 08:42AM

Farmer Ed wrote: »

I think the main problem is if too many people get into something then it can quickly get over supplied. We have only one main purchaser of organic milk in this country. The one thing that would guarantee that the arse would fall out of it, is if teagasc were to recommend that everyone should go organic.

I honestly think that half the problems we are facing at the moment are caused by the spreading of the gospel that there was easy money to be made out of milk and everyone needed to expand quickly. Now we have an over supply. It's all very well to blame other countries, but the production of skim in this country has increased by 146%. In spite of us producing some of the best milk in the world. Most of our extra production has gone into skim. A product that is regarded as the poorest grade of commodity, where intervention seems to be its biggest market. This is only kicking the problem down the road. Where was the planning?

We had this before in the early eighties. People were encouraged and even paid to milk more cows and in no they were hit with quotas.

Jeez Ed, the glass is always half full with you!:)

Maybe if Ireland produced organic milk for the 500mill people on its doorstep, the glass might actually be half full.
Organic is no longer a niche market with 8% growth in demand YoY.

Just saying like...:)

keep going · 04-02-2016 08:45AM

But havent the new zealanders done very well out that strategy, its basically backboning their economy and like ireland they dont have a big domestic market so it has to be exported.if it has to be exported it has to be sold at world market prices.so next you say lets look at high value products, yeah end price will be higher but r n d, marketing and technology soak up a huge part of the margin.the alternative back to quotas and a dying industry.for all the talk about carbery the higher prices is not coming from processing milk its coming from shrewd investments and some dumb luck.

kowtow · 04-02-2016 09:02AM

Dawggone wrote:

The output would probably increase because it would make more sense to move from grazing grass to growing clovers/legumes. Cows would be housed 24/7.

Can you do that with organic in France?

Dawggone · 04-02-2016 09:10AM

kowtow wrote: »

Can you do that with organic in France?

Yep.
Funny how the 'organic' label always shows cows in grass heaven.

It's a joke really.

Farmer Ed · 04-02-2016 09:14AM

Dawggone wrote: »

Jeez Ed, the glass is always half full with you!:)

Maybe if Ireland produced organic milk for the 500mill people on its doorstep, the glass might actually be half full.
Organic is no longer a niche market with 8% growth in demand YoY.

Just saying like...:)

I actually think there may be a future in organics. I don't know why is it when faced with reality people are so quick to write it off as someone being negative? We should be doing more research in that area but we first need to address things like appointing people from the chemical industry to the board of Teagasc

I actually agree, For farmers to have a decent future, yes 100% we need to be looking at things like organics. The problem I have is if the idea is oversold the market could get flooded. Farmers need to be presented with the facts and not some hype as has happened in the case of the current dairy situation.

Who was it that said he believed the smartest animal in the farm yard Was the hen? Simply because she doesn't do any clucking until first she lays the egg.

Farmer Ed · 04-02-2016 09:36AM

keep going wrote: »

But havent the new zealanders done very well out that strategy, its basically backboning their economy and like ireland they dont have a big domestic market so it has to be exported.if it has to be exported it has to be sold at world market prices.so next you say lets look at high value products, yeah end price will be higher but r n d, marketing and technology soak up a huge part of the margin.the alternative back to quotas and a dying industry.for all the talk about carbery the higher prices is not coming from processing milk its coming from shrewd investments and some dumb luck.

For various reasons we are not NZ and maybe that's not a bad thing.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/tears-ahead-for-chinadriven-milk-boom-in-new-zealand-20150103-12hiwq.html

freedominacup · 04-02-2016 09:52AM

Farmer Ed wrote: »

For various reasons we are not NZ and maybe that's not a bad thing.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/tears-ahead-for-chinadriven-milk-boom-in-new-zealand-20150103-12hiwq.html

The tone of that article would make you very suspicious of the content.

Farmer Ed · 04-02-2016 10:00AM

freedominacup wrote: »

The tone of that article would make you very suspicious of the content.

Maybe but I am increasingly reminded of Bertie's response to people who questioned the wisdom of everyone rushing into property.

My view is absolutely we should always be looking to improve our standard of living. But realistically when you can visibly see something is a band wagon. It is usually too late to be getting on.

yosemitesam1 · 04-02-2016 11:22AM

Dawggone wrote: »

Yep.
Funny how the 'organic' label always shows cows in grass heaven.

It's a joke really.

Did you ever cost out an intensive grass based system out of curiosity, you could probably grow grass all year down there

patsy_mccabe · 04-02-2016 11:44AM

Dawggone - What is your story? You're in France, right? I only ever picked up bits and pieces from your posts. Did you move over there from Ireland? How long are you there? Care to open a new thread and tell us all about it? :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

Dawggone · 04-02-2016 01:27PM

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

Did you ever cost out an intensive grass based system out of curiosity, you could probably grow grass all year down there

I use as much grass as possible.
This year I'm measuring grass grown/utilized. Also I've planted a cocksfoot/plantain/clover mix and that will be irrigated and measured.

Maize easily produces 22tonDM/ha...

Drought is pretty much guaranteed in June/July/August. Cows have been housed since Jan1.

Dawggone · 04-02-2016 01:31PM

patsy_mccabe wrote: »

Dawggone - What is your story? You're in France, right? I only ever picked up bits and pieces from your posts. Did you move over there from Ireland? How long are you there? Care to open a new thread and tell us all about it? :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

No Patsy, I couldn't be bothered. It won't add one jot to farming info on this forum...

I do post updates about what goes on here from time to time.

I see someone fixed the interweb....who broke it?

yosemitesam1 · 04-02-2016 02:04PM

Dawggone wrote: »

I use as much grass as possible.
This year I'm measuring grass grown/utilized. Also I've planted a cocksfoot/plantain/clover mix and that will be irrigated and measured.

Maize easily produces 22tonDM/ha...

Drought is pretty much guaranteed in June/July/August. Cows have been housed since Jan1.

If you could include a warm season grass you could add another 5-10t over the summer as long as its irrigated

Dawggone · 04-02-2016 02:09PM

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

If you could include a warm season grass you could add another 5-10t over the summer as long as its irrigated

Versus maize, grass is very inefficient in its use of water. Grass also needs a lot more water than maize.

keep going · 04-02-2016 02:32PM

patsy_mccabe wrote: »

Dawggone - What is your story? You're in France, right? I only ever picked up bits and pieces from your posts. Did you move over there from Ireland? How long are you there? Care to open a new thread and tell us all about it? :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

Dawg is the latest in the blood line that traces its roots back to an ilegitimite son of king louis the whatever that was beheaded in the revolution who fled france afterwards to ireland where from generation to generation the desire to take back what was rightfully theres.finally dawg has gone back and started to take it over a little bit at the time using the power of cows.

Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

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