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trump becomes president 1000 euro at 25/1 on betfair

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    #32
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    duplicating


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    #33
    Mellor
    Registered Users Posts: 39,140 ✭✭✭✭Mellor


    duffman13 wrote: »
    Screenshot or gtfo
    Kenley Sticky Cactus wrote: »
    That 1k x25 doesn't sound so bad now with a new low market price of just x3.5 today perhaps the lowest so far?
    Perhaps a good time to cash out, offset, lay the bet etc.
    It's a good bet to have now, if it was actually placed. THe "screenshot or gtfo" post was never replied to.

    Could lay €1000 on betfair atm for a -€5400 liability. Giving the apparent €1kl@25 bet a €19,600 freeroll.
    Or else hedge the bet entirely unbiased, because the market is still a bit shallow it works out better. Laying €4485 will be matched as low as 3.0 netting €4250 regardless of the result.

    Although if OP think it'll drop further, say if he gets the nomination. Then hold out.

    Probably only about at 40% chance of actually winning, but still a chance, a fairly good chance.
    I wouldn't say he is that high right now tbh. Would equate to being a true 2.5 shot


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    #34
    Charity10k
    Registered Users Posts: 35 ✭Charity10k


    3 months ago I was sure Trump wouldn't get the nomination and that he was just getting the attention because of his celebrity status but I really do think he will be the Republican candidate as there is a definite shift in support within the Republican party away from Cruz who was his main challenger to Trump so that Rubio is really the only challenger to Trump now but for some reason Jeb Bush is shooting himself in the foot by constantly trying to derail Rubios campaign with negative publicity...

    All told I am really starting to believe that Trump will get the nomination as hard as that is for me to understand but put simply people believe that he is a good businessman who will kick the illegals out of the country and end up bringing jobs back to more rural areas... The same reason headbangers such as Front Nationale get support in recessionary times.

    In a straight run between Trump and Clinton I give Clinton the edge but not by much and I would worry how much trouble Trump can cause in 4 years.


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    #35
    Harry Angstrom
    Registered Users Posts: 19,351 ✭✭✭✭Harry Angstrom


    Kenley Sticky Cactus wrote: »
    That 1k x25 doesn't sound so bad now with a new low market price of just x3.5 today perhaps the lowest so far?
    Perhaps a good time to cash out, offset, lay the bet etc.

    Probably only about at 40% chance of actually winning, but still a chance, a fairly good chance.

    Where are you getting 40% from? Even at a market low of 3.5, that still equates to 28%. For him to have a 40% chance, he'd need to be 6/4. As it stands with current best odds 7/2, it puts Trump's percentage chances at around 22%.


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    #36
    Charity10k
    Registered Users Posts: 35 ✭Charity10k


    Harry Angstrom wrote: »
    Where are you getting 40% from? Even at a market low of 3.5, that still equates to 28%. For him to have a 40% chance, he'd need to be 6/4. As it stands with current best odds 7/2, it puts Trump's percentage chances at around 22%.

    I'm assuming the 40% chance is he own personal opinion on Trumps chances of becoming president.

    The 3.5 odds reflect the bookies opinion on what price is required on Trump to attract money in the proportion that would allow them to profit regardless of who becomes president.

    In other words he believes that betting on Trump would provide a 40% return on investment.


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    #37
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    .


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    #38
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    The 40% is indeed a speculative and estimate type figure, essentially it's now looking like just a two dog race, with Hilary perhaps having a slight 10% edge. This 'edge' however has some flaws regarding trust* and lack of any real change actually being offered, hence the low 10% advantage.

    It's not a 140%ROI (it's closer to 2000%ROI from 2015 stake for me). A 40% chance (now) of winning outright, but this is dependent on public sway during the rest of the entire year which can go either way, so highly variable. Essentially it's looking like just a two-way media campaign fight now.

    * Remember, Trump has been on the TV screens almost weekly, for years on-end as a fairly effective, and even perhaps a 'fair and balanced manager' of project managers in the Apprentice. Whilst more recently Hilary has been on the screens defending her email server actions in front of a Juridicial inquiry.

    Saying all that the Don sure could kick up a lot of dust. Specifically relative here, is the practice of 'offshore company tax efficiencies'.


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    #39
    Mellor
    Registered Users Posts: 39,140 ✭✭✭✭Mellor


    Kenley Sticky Cactus wrote: »
    The 40% is indeed a speculative and estimate type figure, essentially it's now looking like just a two dog race, with Hilary perhaps having a slight 10% edge. This 'edge' however has some flaws regarding trust* and lack of any real change actually being offered, hence the low 10% advantage.

    It's not a 140%ROI (it's closer to 2000%ROI from 2015 stake for me). A 40% chance (now) of winning outright, but this is dependent on public sway during the rest of the entire year which can go either way, so highly variable. Essentially it's looking like just a two-way media campaign fight now.

    * Remember, Trump has been on the TV screens almost weekly, for years on-end as a fairly effective, and even perhaps a 'fair and balanced manager' of project managers in the Apprentice. Whilst more recently Hilary has been on the screens defending her email server actions in front of a Juridicial inquiry.

    Saying all that the Don sure could kick up a lot of dust. Specifically relative here, is the practice of 'offshore company tax efficiencies'.
    What % chances do you think Trump is go get the RP nomination?


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    #40
    BorneTobyWilde
    Registered Users Posts: 35,820 ✭✭✭✭BorneTobyWilde


    Trump trolling his way to the White House
    The more controversial outbursts he makes the more people respond to it and feed him. In doing so they give him all the attention he craves. He's King Troll Trump.
    Telling Fox News to go fucck themselves is another example.
    He's very clever.
    He will win.


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    #41
    Eugene Norman
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,191 ✭✭✭Eugene Norman


    BorneTobyWilde wrote: »
    Trump trolling his way to the White House
    The more controversial outbursts he makes the more people respond to it and feed him. In doing so they give him all the attention he craves. He's King Troll Trump.
    Telling Fox News to go fucck themselves is another example.
    He's very clever.
    He will win.

    He is much cleverer than people think. His next trick, if he gets the nomination, is to move to the center on everything except immigration and globalisation ( he'll probably make peace with gay marriage and stop pretending to be pro life). He'll lose some republican votes ( but he isn't getting the Christian vote anyway) and could take quite a few blue collar democrats.


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    #42
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    .


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    #43
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    In terms of RP nomination, chances are 'very good indeed', and even Rubio seems to think so.

    “I’m running against him for president, so I’m not in the practice of building up my opposition,” Rubio told attendees at a town hall in Ottumwa, Iowa, last week. “But I acknowledge that what he’s tapped into is a real frustration in this country that needs to be addressed, that politics no longer works for people.”

    Trump, even with this overall poor performance so far, has been a household byword for success for the last couple of decades. The offer of 'great and significant change' to the greatest nation which is perhaps facing some decline is a great sales pitch. Whether or not the changes offered would actually be any good is another thing.


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    #44
    Mellor
    Registered Users Posts: 39,140 ✭✭✭✭Mellor


    BorneTobyWilde wrote: »
    Trump trolling his way to the White House
    The more controversial outbursts he makes the more people respond to it and feed him. In doing so they give him all the attention he craves. He's King Troll Trump.
    Telling Fox News to go fucck themselves is another example.
    He's very clever.
    He will win.

    Trolling gets him media coverage, but media coverage would win him the election. After the primaries, he'll either get smashed in any real political debate. Or the RP will get behind him and protect him. Resulting in an easy win for the DP. He'll get the republican vote in the usual states, lose most of the swing states. Eventually losing 54-46% - which people will think it close. It isn't.
    Kenley Sticky Cactus wrote: »
    In terms of RP nomination, chances are 'very good indeed', and even Rubio seems to think so.
    Very good means nothing really. What % chance do you give him?


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    #45
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    .


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    #46
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    It means more than 50%, less than 100% chance of RP. This is actually much more tricky to specify, due to the amount of candidates, shorter timeframes and other increased variance factors. Certain odds on favourite anyway.

    Whereas later in the year it's just a two way race in and good chance he may gain an advantage during a very long PR battle.

    What % figure, Mellor has your calculator presented you on RP, assuming it's under 49%?


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    #47
    MyPeopleDrankTheSoup
    Registered Users Posts: 2,718 ✭✭✭MyPeopleDrankTheSoup


    i'm thinking of putting €5000 on hillary to win. i think it's an absolute lock.


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    #48
    Mellor
    Registered Users Posts: 39,140 ✭✭✭✭Mellor


    Kenley Sticky Cactus wrote: »
    It means more than 50%, less than 100% chance of RP. This is actually much more tricky to specify, due to the amount of candidates, shorter timeframes and other increased variance factors. Certain odds on favourite anyway.

    Whereas later in the year it's just a two way race in and good chance he may gain an advantage during a very long PR battle.

    I appreciate it a long way off, and all those are variables in the way. But I don't understand why its more tricky to specify.
    He has to become the nominee to become president, so all those varibles candidates, timeframes etc are in the way of him becoming president too.

    What % figure, Mellor has your calculator presented you on RP, assuming it's under 49%?
    No election calculator here. Wish it were that easy. I'm betting a different angle entirely.

    as you asked, say Trump is favourite to win the RP nomination, but not odds on. I'd say an even 50% verses the field.


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    #49
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    georgiecasey wrote: »
    i'm thinking of putting €5000 on hillary to win. i think it's an absolute lock.

    In that case between around Oct 1 - Oct 13th 2015 would have been the ideal time to have done that, when she was available at x2.5, now it's x1.9.

    Your best plan would be to wait for x2.35 or higher to reappear during the year which is bound to happen at some stage, if even for a short while on the back of a media Exposé, poll results or maybe just a bad day at Q&A session.

    Unless of course you have a few of the other main contenders already at double digits, then its a great time.


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    #50
    Canadel
    Registered Users Posts: 1,586 ✭✭✭Canadel


    georgiecasey wrote: »
    i'm thinking of putting €5000 on hillary to win. i think it's an absolute lock.
    I'd nearly match you to make it 10k.

    She has this won barring a freak event. Trump is the best thing that could have happened to her.


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    #51
    Amazingfun
    Registered Users Posts: 3,161 ✭✭✭Amazingfun


    So why don't you both do it? I mean, Trump is such a sure bet to lose, right? lol....


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    #52
    Canadel
    Registered Users Posts: 1,586 ✭✭✭Canadel


    Amazingfun wrote: »
    So why don't you both do it? I mean, Trump is such a sure bet to lose, right? lol....
    Well, yes.


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    #53
    Amazingfun
    Registered Users Posts: 3,161 ✭✭✭Amazingfun


    Canadel wrote: »
    Well, yes.

    Great, you will post your betting slip here then? I mean, why keep such a brilliant move to yourself!

    Ps:



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    #54
    Canadel
    Registered Users Posts: 1,586 ✭✭✭Canadel


    Amazingfun wrote: »
    Great, you will post your betting slip here then?
    Do you think Trump, or someone saying the same things as him, would win an Irish presidential election?

    Hillary is a winner, and people like voting for winners. Obviously betting on a winner still represents a risk, but if I do place a bet I'll post the slip. ;)


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    #55
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Canadel wrote: »
    Do you think Trump... would win an Irish presidential election?
    Hillary is a winner...

    Ireland isn't the USA, and the winner of this, isn't a winner, until it's won. There is no value in this market, and hasn't been for a quite a while, it's just interesting viewing & entertainment now. If searching for value the only thing that looks slightly interesting could be Bloomberg x125 sneaking in for RP, but still a very unlikely wildcard. If you really don't give any value to Donny, perhaps then Rubio at x3.75 today for RP would be the obvious choice. Or if still looking for a place to put that spare 10k, perhaps the Broncos (+5pt) at evens, next weekend.


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    #56
    Amazingfun
    Registered Users Posts: 3,161 ✭✭✭Amazingfun


    Canadel wrote: »
    Do you think Trump, or someone saying the same things as him, would win an Irish presidential election?

    Hillary is a winner, and people like voting for winners. Obviously betting on a winner still represents a risk, but if I do place a bet I'll post the slip. ;)

    Disagree about Hillary the Horrible, sorry, but fair play on the posting of the bet. Genuinely wish you the best of luck :)


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    #57
    Canadel
    Registered Users Posts: 1,586 ✭✭✭Canadel


    Kenley Sticky Cactus wrote: »
    Ireland isn't the USA, and the winner of this, isn't a winner, until it's won.
    No, it's not. But we have more in common than what separates us. Hillary is a winner. She's a champion. Saunders is fairly likeable, but he's a loser. People like and vote for winners. 5/6 isn't great value, but it's still value if the risk is right.


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    #58
    Charity10k
    Registered Users Posts: 35 ✭Charity10k


    Canadel wrote: »
    No, it's not. But we have more in common than what separates us. Hillary is a winner. She's a champion. Saunders is fairly likeable, but he's a loser. People like and vote for winners. 5/6 isn't great value, but it's still value if the risk is right.

    You seem to think that Americans always vote logically and elect the best person for the job.


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    #59
    Juxtapose
    Registered Users Posts: 486 ✭✭Juxtapose


    Canadel wrote: »
    Hillary is a winner. She's a champion. Saunders is fairly likeable, but he's a loser.

    Any relation to Dean?


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    #60
    Canadel
    Registered Users Posts: 1,586 ✭✭✭Canadel


    Charity10k wrote: »
    You seem to think that Americans always vote logically and elect the best person for the job.
    I never said she is the best person for the job. But I do think she is most likely to win.
    Juxtapose wrote: »
    Any relation to Dean?
    Don't know.


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    #61
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Canadel wrote: »
    No, it's not. But we have more in common than what separates us. Hillary is a winner. She's a champion. Saunders is fairly likeable, but he's a loser.

    Apart from strong genetic/historic linkage, we have more in common with Canada, Aus, NZ & UK than the US. Whether it's free-ish healthcare, accessible education, work-holiday exchange visas and numerious state-aid options for citizens, the rest of the new world countries have many more similarities.

    What's she 'champion' of? APMcCoy, Rory or the array of WBO winners etc are champions. Saunders seems popular with the youth, but perhaps does have an image problem, not technicaly a loser if he acts honestly with own conviction & integretity. Rubio has been making some good gains, a bit too young and conservative though.

    Hopefully the Broncos will be 'champions' later tonight in what is perhaps the greatest sporting final show on the planet, cheerleaders en al. Not sure about Coldplay though, they ain't no Aerosmith.


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