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trump becomes president 1000 euro at 25/1 on betfair

  • 12-08-2015 7:48pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 882 moneymad


    Can't wait to collect my winnings.


«1345678

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 3,721 ✭✭✭ 3DataModem


    25-1 is not a great price.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 35,514 ✭✭✭✭ efb


    Good luck with that...


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,853 ✭✭✭ duffman13


    Screenshot or gtfo


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,546 ✭✭✭✭ okidoki987


    Love to see where he gets the votes from as so far, he has alienated the women & the Mexican vote.
    Should be more like 250/1.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,404 ✭✭✭✭ retalivity


    Are you sure its not 25 at 1000/1???


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,178 bajer101


    Even if he got the GOP nomination (which he won't), he would still be a 25/1 shot against any Democrat.


  • Registered Users Posts: 512 ✭✭✭ Arbitrary


    moneymad wrote: »
    Can't wait to collect my winnings.

    Great if you took this bet as a lay, 1k just went up in smoke otherwise.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 43 ✭✭✭ Realist2


    moneymad wrote: »
    Can't wait to collect my winnings.

    was 100/1 a couple of weeks ago, do u not know by now that american presidents are selected not elected, you need to get informed, u were better off throwing your money into the shannon.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Kenley Sticky Cactus


    I actually like this, though only as part of an accumulator, which (presently) isn’t available.

    Trump is as low as x11 even with some of the larger books, next best single price outside of betfair is just x19, general average x15-17. x25 or so is a good price.

    Some logic behind this including:

    1. Americanos love to mix tv and politics, whether it’s Regan, or the Terminator as state governor in cali, plus the principle activity he performed on the screens was actually evaluating the management of projects teams.

    2. Trump is a straight talking dude, which 'recessionary us' might be looking for right now. People know what they’re getting from the getgo, no tap dancing or sci-fi.

    3. A bush/clinton win would be a mockery of democracy, something competing nations have already highlighted. Clinton is actually far too clever for her own good, which can only backfire in the longer term. A classic example is the time she simply claimed to have simply ‘misspoke’ about an international visit, which was made out to be as per the movie poster of black hawk down.

    4. In the UK Jeremy Corbyn (x1.25) has leapfrogged the previous firm favourites of the next Labour leader. The polar opposite to Blair, another straight talking chap with no time for photo-ops, buzzwords and populist bandwagons.

    One concern is that it's not an e/w market, so winner takes all, no 2nd place, and 1st Oct 2016 is a bit away.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 43 ✭✭✭ Realist2


    I actually like this, though only as part of an accumulator, which (presently) isn’t available.

    Trump is as low as x11 even with some of the larger books, next best single price outside of betfair is just x19, general average x15-17. x25 or so is a good price.

    Some logic behind this including:

    1. Americanos love to mix tv and politics, whether it’s Regan, or the Terminator as state governor in cali, plus the principle activity he performed on the screens was actually evaluating the management of projects teams.

    2. Trump is a straight talking dude, which 'recessionary us' might be looking for right now. People know what they’re getting from the getgo, no tap dancing or sci-fi.

    3. A bush/clinton win would be a mockery of democracy, something competing nations have already highlighted. Clinton is actually far too clever for her own good, which can only backfire in the longer term. A classic example is the time she simply claimed to have simply ‘misspoke’ about an international visit, which was made out to be as per the movie poster of black hawk down.

    4. In the UK Jeremy Corbyn (x1.25) has leapfrogged the previous firm favourites of the next Labour leader. The polar opposite to Blair, another straight talking chap with no time for photo-ops, buzzwords and populist bandwagons.

    One concern is that it's not an e/w market, so winner takes all, no 2nd place, and 1st Oct 2016 is a bit away.

    as i said before in this thread, presidents are selected not elected, democracy, umm, the people that are in power and the people that are out of power in the government are all puppets on a string, it doesn't matter who gets in, the same person his holding all the strings, why would a backbencher want to get into government when they get paid roughly the same for questioning policies rather than taking on the responsibilities of millions of people, people need to wake up, its all on the internet, did you not notice that the ones that don't get elected end up in some government job, al gore, John Kerry, they're all people the elite picked for the jobs that they want done, Hilary is in the group, she will be next president, wake up people please


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Kenley Sticky Cactus


    Realist2 wrote: »
    people need to wake up, its all on the internet ... Hilary is in the group, she will be next president, wake up people please

    Am sure folks are already aware of brown paper bag type politics in every single country and nearly every position of power. Even perhaps some unconfirmed reports of direct lineage to the QoEng to both the bush & clinton families. There is still however a certain level of open competition, monetary campaign budgeting factors could actually be a bigger influence.

    Certainly if your theory was correct a vet such McCain would easily of beaten early outsider Barry o' Barma.

    The UK's Labour leadership is a great example of 'fairly open' competition, every arm of the establishment is quaking at the prospect, the media is frothing with negative press, yet is still fairly likely to be their next leader.

    Trump can certainly take it, and if my favourite novelty accumulating bookie improves on x13, will wildcard it on to a long-term 4 from 5-fold.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,546 ✭✭✭✭ okidoki987


    Hilary is in the group, she will be next president,

    +1.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,480 ✭✭✭ Peintre Celebre


    I actually like this, though only as part of an accumulator, which (presently) isn’t available.

    Trump is as low as x11 even with some of the larger books, next best single price outside of betfair is just x19, general average x15-17. x25 or so is a good price.

    Some logic behind this including:

    1. Americanos love to mix tv and politics, whether it’s Regan, or the Terminator as state governor in cali, plus the principle activity he performed on the screens was actually evaluating the management of projects teams.

    2. Trump is a straight talking dude, which 'recessionary us' might be looking for right now. People know what they’re getting from the getgo, no tap dancing or sci-fi.

    3. A bush/clinton win would be a mockery of democracy, something competing nations have already highlighted. Clinton is actually far too clever for her own good, which can only backfire in the longer term. A classic example is the time she simply claimed to have simply ‘misspoke’ about an international visit, which was made out to be as per the movie poster of black hawk down.

    4. In the UK Jeremy Corbyn (x1.25) has leapfrogged the previous firm favourites of the next Labour leader. The polar opposite to Blair, another straight talking chap with no time for photo-ops, buzzwords and populist bandwagons.

    One concern is that it's not an e/w market, so winner takes all, no 2nd place, and 1st Oct 2016 is a bit away.

    That is one of the strangest comments I've read on this board??


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Kenley Sticky Cactus


    That is one of the strangest comments I've read on this board??

    Pretty straightforward in reality. If you can get Trump as a wildcard selection (at x25 or greater) as part of a 'year long safe accumulator' you'd have a great multiplier if all the other (more safe) selections win.

    SJ is one of the few books to allow novelty markets to be included along with more traditional sports selections. Simples.


  • Registered Users Posts: 684 ✭✭✭ ianburke


    no i cant make a case for that. what's a safe accumulator? 1/100 shots sure that wouldn't impact trumps price much at all in a multi.

    lot of swings in prices in these markets. wouldn't be surprised to see clinton drift and bush shorten and then go back to clinton odds on in a few months. remember when gallagher went 1/4 on the exchange to beat higgins. crazy swings in these markets


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Kenley Sticky Cactus


    When I say accumulator - it would be mostly made up of 4 from 6 selections to win (15 bets in total) with Trump being the wildcard 6th selection.

    So if just four or even five of the others won their events (even at shortish odds), profit is guaranteed anyway. If Trump wins, it's simply a very nice bonus for the small bit also put on an outright accumulator too.

    e.g. Sample odds {2.5 x 2 x 3 x 3.5 x 2.25 x 25} = 1 unit returning 2953 units.

    A bit similar in principle to the 4 from 6 I had with SJ, which included the novelty market UK Con Outright Majority (win) as a successful x13 multiplier. If only more books offered novelties/politics as part of an accumulator....


    Indeed very high variance in candidates, and over 1yr until actual event date, so no rush.


  • Registered Users Posts: 684 ✭✭✭ ianburke


    ok so you mean lucky 15s,patents,lucky 31s,canadians etc. thought you just meant an accumulator that all selections needed to win for a return


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Kenley Sticky Cactus


    Yep, certainly a (smallish) bit on the outright single accumulator, but mostly 4 from 6. When available some books will allow multiple novelty selections, so SPOTY15 could be another selection, along with the uk's eu referendum date etc. With many more between now and the event

    1k single drop on trump wouldn't be recommended, but equally nor would a single on anyone else (including Hilary) at just x3 (1/2).

    Think it will boil down to a choice for the people of slightly direct authoritarian leadership style over more manipulative cosmetic style(s).


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,599 matthew8


    He has no chance whatsoever at the presidency. It would be an outstanding lay if it didn't take so long to come in (even if you waited for him to inevitably start to lose interest or say something even more stupid so you could back it at 1000 that could take a while). Polling well right now means very little, Herman Cain polled well for a time too in the last cycle, novelty candidates always drop out.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Kenley Sticky Cactus


    Trump now down to single figure average odds. 3rd fav. The billionare is also able to self-fund independent campaigning, if desired - regardless of party nomination. Just seen the tail end of 50min (live) speech live on CNN. Generally positive feedback from the analysts, but some minor concerns regarding tendency to waffle slightly^. Odds well ahead of B.Saunders whom also has been getting a fair bit of airtime.

    ^ Should be noted in context that this guy refuses to use scripts, or the aid of electronic teleprompter equipment during campaigning.

    1k at x25 doesn't seem soooo bad now for the OP. If it was got early at around 100/1, sure you'd have a weekend in Vegas (next) Nov/Dec to maybe consider planning an outline itinerary for just-in-case...

    trumpodds20150826.png


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Kenley Sticky Cactus


    That's Joey 'B out of contention now he has withdrawn, and never even seemed committed anyway.
    Which leaves Trump more or less joint 2nd (along with few others) all around x7.

    Ignore the price-sorting distortion on OC, as Matchbook have a great x13.4 price available on Don.

    Rubio has came in as an outsider to join the race lead.

    Both Sanders and Trump have a good chance, with their promises of actual systematic change - that is... if the market bites.


  • Registered Users Posts: 37,379 ✭✭✭✭ Mellor


    Pretty straightforward in reality. If you can get Trump as a wildcard selection (at x25 or greater) as part of a 'year long safe accumulator' you'd have a great multiplier if all the other (more safe) selections win.

    That still makes little sense. If there is value in him a certain price in an accumulator, then there is value in him in a single.

    An accumulator doesn't change the value of a bet, it just compounds them together.
    Which leaves Trump more or less joint 2nd (along with few others) all around x7.

    Ignore the price-sorting distortion on OC, as Matchbook have a great x13.4 price available on Don.
    3rd in running now.
    Not sure what you mean by price distortion on OC?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Kenley Sticky Cactus


    That still makes little sense. If there is value in him a certain price in an accumulator, then there is value in him in a single. An accumulator doesn't change the value of a bet, it just compounds them together.

    A 4th high value wildcard on the end of a low value very safe treble can work as nice multiplier, and if it doesn't come in the other three will still likely result in small profits anyway, when doing e.g. trebles from 4.

    3rd in running now. Not sure what you mean by price distortion on OC? Add your reply here.

    Placement will vary right up until end of 2016, overall a better position than a few months ago. OC showed him 5th, but they factored in matchbook's price in their sorting which had him at x13, when all others had x6-x7.

    That brain surgeon chap is doing very well on the polls is doing well on the odds/polls. But as many folks say, "you don't want a politician operating on your brain, but nor do you want a brain surgeon making socio-economic policies".


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Kenley Sticky Cactus


    Bit of a surprise on the odds now http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016

    Don is still holding steady at 3rd place (close 2nd) even after his very recent controversial (more so than usual!) comments on barring certain religions from the US. WillHills have even him shortened to as low as x5. (x7 average).

    Saunders (the only non-Christian candidate), has slipped way back with seven books offering x21 to win.
    Perhaps the election will have a stronger religious and ethnicity orientation to it during 2016 than expected.
    Very much pull factored (fear) motivated, considering in recent developments.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,097 ✭✭✭✭ callaway92


    Might actually be good value at 25's if you plan on laying him if his price gets slashed in the next couple of months?

    Nice profit to be made in a "back to lay"


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,135 ✭✭✭ Gregk961


    No interest in markets like this bit just spotted trump at best price 11/2 on oddschecker. Seems unusual for an international hate figure to be such a small price. The OP can lay off his bet at least!


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,161 ✭✭✭ Amazingfun


    international hate figure

    :rolleyes:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Kenley Sticky Cactus


    Gregk961 wrote: »
    No interest in markets like this bit just spotted trump at best price 11/2 on oddschecker. Seems unusual for an international hate figure to be such a small price. The OP can lay off his bet at least!

    Agree, getting the Don at 25/1 or above is a win win. Can either lay it for a profit or wait it out. Got him at wild card numerals on the tail end of year-long (fourfold from 7) type accumulators. Was 100/1 not too long ago.

    Not sure he'll actually win, then again GW won and he had difficulty forming sentences and reading books the right way up, so anything is possible really.

    Betfred & ToteSport has him as low as x4.5 today.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,586 Canadel


    Of the USA?

    Hilarious how underestimated Hillary is. Her biggest mistake was being born a woman.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Kenley Sticky Cactus


    That 1k x25 doesn't sound so bad now with a new low market price of just x3.5 today perhaps the lowest so far?
    Perhaps a good time to cash out, offset, lay the bet etc.

    Probably only about at 40% chance of actually winning, but still a chance, a fairly good chance.

    shortpriceisshort.png


This discussion has been closed.
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