trump becomes president 1000 euro at 25/1 on betfair

moneymad

Can't wait to collect my winnings.

3DataModem

25-1 is not a great price.

efb

Good luck with that...

duffman13

Screenshot or gtfo

okidoki987

Love to see where he gets the votes from as so far, he has alienated the women & the Mexican vote.
Should be more like 250/1.

retalivity

Are you sure its not 25 at 1000/1???

bajer101

Even if he got the GOP nomination (which he won't), he would still be a 25/1 shot against any Democrat.

Arbitrary

moneymad wrote: »

Can't wait to collect my winnings.

Great if you took this bet as a lay, 1k just went up in smoke otherwise.

Realist2

moneymad wrote: »

Can't wait to collect my winnings.

was 100/1 a couple of weeks ago, do u not know by now that american presidents are selected not elected, you need to get informed, u were better off throwing your money into the shannon.

4068ac1elhodqr

I actually like this, though only as part of an accumulator, which (presently) isn’t available.

Trump is as low as x11 even with some of the larger books, next best single price outside of betfair is just x19, general average x15-17. x25 or so is a good price.

Some logic behind this including:

1. Americanos love to mix tv and politics, whether it’s Regan, or the Terminator as state governor in cali, plus the principle activity he performed on the screens was actually evaluating the management of projects teams.

2. Trump is a straight talking dude, which 'recessionary us' might be looking for right now. People know what they’re getting from the getgo, no tap dancing or sci-fi.

3. A bush/clinton win would be a mockery of democracy, something competing nations have already highlighted. Clinton is actually far too clever for her own good, which can only backfire in the longer term. A classic example is the time she simply claimed to have simply ‘misspoke’ about an international visit, which was made out to be as per the movie poster of black hawk down.

4. In the UK Jeremy Corbyn (x1.25) has leapfrogged the previous firm favourites of the next Labour leader. The polar opposite to Blair, another straight talking chap with no time for photo-ops, buzzwords and populist bandwagons.

One concern is that it's not an e/w market, so winner takes all, no 2nd place, and 1st Oct 2016 is a bit away.

Realist2

Kenley Sticky Cactus wrote: »

I actually like this, though only as part of an accumulator, which (presently) isn’t available.

Trump is as low as x11 even with some of the larger books, next best single price outside of betfair is just x19, general average x15-17. x25 or so is a good price.

Some logic behind this including:

1. Americanos love to mix tv and politics, whether it’s Regan, or the Terminator as state governor in cali, plus the principle activity he performed on the screens was actually evaluating the management of projects teams.

2. Trump is a straight talking dude, which 'recessionary us' might be looking for right now. People know what they’re getting from the getgo, no tap dancing or sci-fi.

3. A bush/clinton win would be a mockery of democracy, something competing nations have already highlighted. Clinton is actually far too clever for her own good, which can only backfire in the longer term. A classic example is the time she simply claimed to have simply ‘misspoke’ about an international visit, which was made out to be as per the movie poster of black hawk down.

4. In the UK Jeremy Corbyn (x1.25) has leapfrogged the previous firm favourites of the next Labour leader. The polar opposite to Blair, another straight talking chap with no time for photo-ops, buzzwords and populist bandwagons.

One concern is that it's not an e/w market, so winner takes all, no 2nd place, and 1st Oct 2016 is a bit away.

as i said before in this thread, presidents are selected not elected, democracy, umm, the people that are in power and the people that are out of power in the government are all puppets on a string, it doesn't matter who gets in, the same person his holding all the strings, why would a backbencher want to get into government when they get paid roughly the same for questioning policies rather than taking on the responsibilities of millions of people, people need to wake up, its all on the internet, did you not notice that the ones that don't get elected end up in some government job, al gore, John Kerry, they're all people the elite picked for the jobs that they want done, Hilary is in the group, she will be next president, wake up people please

4068ac1elhodqr

Realist2 wrote: »

people need to wake up, its all on the internet ... Hilary is in the group, she will be next president, wake up people please

Am sure folks are already aware of brown paper bag type politics in every single country and nearly every position of power. Even perhaps some unconfirmed reports of direct lineage to the QoEng to both the bush & clinton families. There is still however a certain level of open competition, monetary campaign budgeting factors could actually be a bigger influence.

Certainly if your theory was correct a vet such McCain would easily of beaten early outsider Barry o' Barma.

The UK's Labour leadership is a great example of 'fairly open' competition, every arm of the establishment is quaking at the prospect, the media is frothing with negative press, yet is still fairly likely to be their next leader.

Trump can certainly take it, and if my favourite novelty accumulating bookie improves on x13, will wildcard it on to a long-term 4 from 5-fold.

okidoki987

Hilary is in the group, she will be next president,

+1.

Peintre Celebre

Kenley Sticky Cactus wrote: »

I actually like this, though only as part of an accumulator, which (presently) isn’t available.

Trump is as low as x11 even with some of the larger books, next best single price outside of betfair is just x19, general average x15-17. x25 or so is a good price.

Some logic behind this including:

1. Americanos love to mix tv and politics, whether it’s Regan, or the Terminator as state governor in cali, plus the principle activity he performed on the screens was actually evaluating the management of projects teams.

2. Trump is a straight talking dude, which 'recessionary us' might be looking for right now. People know what they’re getting from the getgo, no tap dancing or sci-fi.

3. A bush/clinton win would be a mockery of democracy, something competing nations have already highlighted. Clinton is actually far too clever for her own good, which can only backfire in the longer term. A classic example is the time she simply claimed to have simply ‘misspoke’ about an international visit, which was made out to be as per the movie poster of black hawk down.

4. In the UK Jeremy Corbyn (x1.25) has leapfrogged the previous firm favourites of the next Labour leader. The polar opposite to Blair, another straight talking chap with no time for photo-ops, buzzwords and populist bandwagons.

One concern is that it's not an e/w market, so winner takes all, no 2nd place, and 1st Oct 2016 is a bit away.

That is one of the strangest comments I've read on this board??

4068ac1elhodqr

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

That is one of the strangest comments I've read on this board??

Pretty straightforward in reality. If you can get Trump as a wildcard selection (at x25 or greater) as part of a 'year long safe accumulator' you'd have a great multiplier if all the other (more safe) selections win.

SJ is one of the few books to allow novelty markets to be included along with more traditional sports selections. Simples.

ianburke

no i cant make a case for that. what's a safe accumulator? 1/100 shots sure that wouldn't impact trumps price much at all in a multi.

lot of swings in prices in these markets. wouldn't be surprised to see clinton drift and bush shorten and then go back to clinton odds on in a few months. remember when gallagher went 1/4 on the exchange to beat higgins. crazy swings in these markets

4068ac1elhodqr

When I say accumulator - it would be mostly made up of 4 from 6 selections to win (15 bets in total) with Trump being the wildcard 6th selection.

So if just four or even five of the others won their events (even at shortish odds), profit is guaranteed anyway. If Trump wins, it's simply a very nice bonus for the small bit also put on an outright accumulator too.

e.g. Sample odds {2.5 x 2 x 3 x 3.5 x 2.25 x 25} = 1 unit returning 2953 units.

A bit similar in principle to the 4 from 6 I had with SJ, which included the novelty market UK Con Outright Majority (win) as a successful x13 multiplier. If only more books offered novelties/politics as part of an accumulator....


Indeed very high variance in candidates, and over 1yr until actual event date, so no rush.

ianburke

ok so you mean lucky 15s,patents,lucky 31s,canadians etc. thought you just meant an accumulator that all selections needed to win for a return

4068ac1elhodqr

Yep, certainly a (smallish) bit on the outright single accumulator, but mostly 4 from 6. When available some books will allow multiple novelty selections, so SPOTY15 could be another selection, along with the uk's eu referendum date etc. With many more between now and the event

1k single drop on trump wouldn't be recommended, but equally nor would a single on anyone else (including Hilary) at just x3 (1/2).

Think it will boil down to a choice for the people of slightly direct authoritarian leadership style over more manipulative cosmetic style(s).

matthew8

He has no chance whatsoever at the presidency. It would be an outstanding lay if it didn't take so long to come in (even if you waited for him to inevitably start to lose interest or say something even more stupid so you could back it at 1000 that could take a while). Polling well right now means very little, Herman Cain polled well for a time too in the last cycle, novelty candidates always drop out.

4068ac1elhodqr

Trump now down to single figure average odds. 3rd fav. The billionare is also able to self-fund independent campaigning, if desired - regardless of party nomination. Just seen the tail end of 50min (live) speech live on CNN. Generally positive feedback from the analysts, but some minor concerns regarding tendency to waffle slightly^. Odds well ahead of B.Saunders whom also has been getting a fair bit of airtime.

^ Should be noted in context that this guy refuses to use scripts, or the aid of electronic teleprompter equipment during campaigning.

1k at x25 doesn't seem soooo bad now for the OP. If it was got early at around 100/1, sure you'd have a weekend in Vegas (next) Nov/Dec to maybe consider planning an outline itinerary for just-in-case...

4068ac1elhodqr

That's Joey 'B out of contention now he has withdrawn, and never even seemed committed anyway.
Which leaves Trump more or less joint 2nd (along with few others) all around x7.

Ignore the price-sorting distortion on OC, as Matchbook have a great x13.4 price available on Don.

Rubio has came in as an outsider to join the race lead.

Both Sanders and Trump have a good chance, with their promises of actual systematic change - that is... if the market bites.

Mellor

Kenley Sticky Cactus wrote: »

Pretty straightforward in reality. If you can get Trump as a wildcard selection (at x25 or greater) as part of a 'year long safe accumulator' you'd have a great multiplier if all the other (more safe) selections win.

That still makes little sense. If there is value in him a certain price in an accumulator, then there is value in him in a single.

An accumulator doesn't change the value of a bet, it just compounds them together.

Kenley Sticky Cactus wrote: »

Which leaves Trump more or less joint 2nd (along with few others) all around x7.

Ignore the price-sorting distortion on OC, as Matchbook have a great x13.4 price available on Don.

3rd in running now.
Not sure what you mean by price distortion on OC?

4068ac1elhodqr

That still makes little sense. If there is value in him a certain price in an accumulator, then there is value in him in a single. An accumulator doesn't change the value of a bet, it just compounds them together.

A 4th high value wildcard on the end of a low value very safe treble can work as nice multiplier, and if it doesn't come in the other three will still likely result in small profits anyway, when doing e.g. trebles from 4.

3rd in running now. Not sure what you mean by price distortion on OC? Add your reply here.

Placement will vary right up until end of 2016, overall a better position than a few months ago. OC showed him 5th, but they factored in matchbook's price in their sorting which had him at x13, when all others had x6-x7.

That brain surgeon chap is doing very well on the polls is doing well on the odds/polls. But as many folks say, "you don't want a politician operating on your brain, but nor do you want a brain surgeon making socio-economic policies".

4068ac1elhodqr

Bit of a surprise on the odds now http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016

Don is still holding steady at 3rd place (close 2nd) even after his very recent controversial (more so than usual!) comments on barring certain religions from the US. WillHills have even him shortened to as low as x5. (x7 average).

Saunders (the only non-Christian candidate), has slipped way back with seven books offering x21 to win.
Perhaps the election will have a stronger religious and ethnicity orientation to it during 2016 than expected.
Very much pull factored (fear) motivated, considering in recent developments.

callaway92

Might actually be good value at 25's if you plan on laying him if his price gets slashed in the next couple of months?

Nice profit to be made in a "back to lay"

Gregk961

No interest in markets like this bit just spotted trump at best price 11/2 on oddschecker. Seems unusual for an international hate figure to be such a small price. The OP can lay off his bet at least!

Amazingfun

international hate figure

:rolleyes:

4068ac1elhodqr

Gregk961 wrote: »

No interest in markets like this bit just spotted trump at best price 11/2 on oddschecker. Seems unusual for an international hate figure to be such a small price. The OP can lay off his bet at least!

Agree, getting the Don at 25/1 or above is a win win. Can either lay it for a profit or wait it out. Got him at wild card numerals on the tail end of year-long (fourfold from 7) type accumulators. Was 100/1 not too long ago.

Not sure he'll actually win, then again GW won and he had difficulty forming sentences and reading books the right way up, so anything is possible really.

Betfred & ToteSport has him as low as x4.5 today.

Canadel

Of the USA?

Hilarious how underestimated Hillary is. Her biggest mistake was being born a woman.

4068ac1elhodqr

That 1k x25 doesn't sound so bad now with a new low market price of just x3.5 today perhaps the lowest so far?
Perhaps a good time to cash out, offset, lay the bet etc.

Probably only about at 40% chance of actually winning, but still a chance, a fairly good chance.

4068ac1elhodqr

duplicating

Mellor

duffman13 wrote: »

Screenshot or gtfo

Kenley Sticky Cactus wrote: »

That 1k x25 doesn't sound so bad now with a new low market price of just x3.5 today perhaps the lowest so far?
Perhaps a good time to cash out, offset, lay the bet etc.

It's a good bet to have now, if it was actually placed. THe "screenshot or gtfo" post was never replied to.

Could lay €1000 on betfair atm for a -€5400 liability. Giving the apparent €1kl@25 bet a €19,600 freeroll.
Or else hedge the bet entirely unbiased, because the market is still a bit shallow it works out better. Laying €4485 will be matched as low as 3.0 netting €4250 regardless of the result.

Although if OP think it'll drop further, say if he gets the nomination. Then hold out.

Probably only about at 40% chance of actually winning, but still a chance, a fairly good chance.

I wouldn't say he is that high right now tbh. Would equate to being a true 2.5 shot

Charity10k

3 months ago I was sure Trump wouldn't get the nomination and that he was just getting the attention because of his celebrity status but I really do think he will be the Republican candidate as there is a definite shift in support within the Republican party away from Cruz who was his main challenger to Trump so that Rubio is really the only challenger to Trump now but for some reason Jeb Bush is shooting himself in the foot by constantly trying to derail Rubios campaign with negative publicity...

All told I am really starting to believe that Trump will get the nomination as hard as that is for me to understand but put simply people believe that he is a good businessman who will kick the illegals out of the country and end up bringing jobs back to more rural areas... The same reason headbangers such as Front Nationale get support in recessionary times.

In a straight run between Trump and Clinton I give Clinton the edge but not by much and I would worry how much trouble Trump can cause in 4 years.

Harry Angstrom

Kenley Sticky Cactus wrote: »

That 1k x25 doesn't sound so bad now with a new low market price of just x3.5 today perhaps the lowest so far?
Perhaps a good time to cash out, offset, lay the bet etc.

Probably only about at 40% chance of actually winning, but still a chance, a fairly good chance.

Where are you getting 40% from? Even at a market low of 3.5, that still equates to 28%. For him to have a 40% chance, he'd need to be 6/4. As it stands with current best odds 7/2, it puts Trump's percentage chances at around 22%.

Charity10k

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

Where are you getting 40% from? Even at a market low of 3.5, that still equates to 28%. For him to have a 40% chance, he'd need to be 6/4. As it stands with current best odds 7/2, it puts Trump's percentage chances at around 22%.

I'm assuming the 40% chance is he own personal opinion on Trumps chances of becoming president.

The 3.5 odds reflect the bookies opinion on what price is required on Trump to attract money in the proportion that would allow them to profit regardless of who becomes president.

In other words he believes that betting on Trump would provide a 40% return on investment.

4068ac1elhodqr

.

4068ac1elhodqr

The 40% is indeed a speculative and estimate type figure, essentially it's now looking like just a two dog race, with Hilary perhaps having a slight 10% edge. This 'edge' however has some flaws regarding trust* and lack of any real change actually being offered, hence the low 10% advantage.

It's not a 140%ROI (it's closer to 2000%ROI from 2015 stake for me). A 40% chance (now) of winning outright, but this is dependent on public sway during the rest of the entire year which can go either way, so highly variable. Essentially it's looking like just a two-way media campaign fight now.

* Remember, Trump has been on the TV screens almost weekly, for years on-end as a fairly effective, and even perhaps a 'fair and balanced manager' of project managers in the Apprentice. Whilst more recently Hilary has been on the screens defending her email server actions in front of a Juridicial inquiry.

Saying all that the Don sure could kick up a lot of dust. Specifically relative here, is the practice of 'offshore company tax efficiencies'.

Mellor

Kenley Sticky Cactus wrote: »

The 40% is indeed a speculative and estimate type figure, essentially it's now looking like just a two dog race, with Hilary perhaps having a slight 10% edge. This 'edge' however has some flaws regarding trust* and lack of any real change actually being offered, hence the low 10% advantage.

It's not a 140%ROI (it's closer to 2000%ROI from 2015 stake for me). A 40% chance (now) of winning outright, but this is dependent on public sway during the rest of the entire year which can go either way, so highly variable. Essentially it's looking like just a two-way media campaign fight now.

* Remember, Trump has been on the TV screens almost weekly, for years on-end as a fairly effective, and even perhaps a 'fair and balanced manager' of project managers in the Apprentice. Whilst more recently Hilary has been on the screens defending her email server actions in front of a Juridicial inquiry.

Saying all that the Don sure could kick up a lot of dust. Specifically relative here, is the practice of 'offshore company tax efficiencies'.

What % chances do you think Trump is go get the RP nomination?

BorneTobyWilde

Trump trolling his way to the White House
The more controversial outbursts he makes the more people respond to it and feed him. In doing so they give him all the attention he craves. He's King Troll Trump.
Telling Fox News to go fucck themselves is another example.
He's very clever.
He will win.

Eugene Norman

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Trump trolling his way to the White House
The more controversial outbursts he makes the more people respond to it and feed him. In doing so they give him all the attention he craves. He's King Troll Trump.
Telling Fox News to go fucck themselves is another example.
He's very clever.
He will win.

He is much cleverer than people think. His next trick, if he gets the nomination, is to move to the center on everything except immigration and globalisation ( he'll probably make peace with gay marriage and stop pretending to be pro life). He'll lose some republican votes ( but he isn't getting the Christian vote anyway) and could take quite a few blue collar democrats.

4068ac1elhodqr

.

4068ac1elhodqr

In terms of RP nomination, chances are 'very good indeed', and even Rubio seems to think so.

“I’m running against him for president, so I’m not in the practice of building up my opposition,” Rubio told attendees at a town hall in Ottumwa, Iowa, last week. “But I acknowledge that what he’s tapped into is a real frustration in this country that needs to be addressed, that politics no longer works for people.”

Trump, even with this overall poor performance so far, has been a household byword for success for the last couple of decades. The offer of 'great and significant change' to the greatest nation which is perhaps facing some decline is a great sales pitch. Whether or not the changes offered would actually be any good is another thing.

Mellor

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Trump trolling his way to the White House
The more controversial outbursts he makes the more people respond to it and feed him. In doing so they give him all the attention he craves. He's King Troll Trump.
Telling Fox News to go fucck themselves is another example.
He's very clever.
He will win.

Trolling gets him media coverage, but media coverage would win him the election. After the primaries, he'll either get smashed in any real political debate. Or the RP will get behind him and protect him. Resulting in an easy win for the DP. He'll get the republican vote in the usual states, lose most of the swing states. Eventually losing 54-46% - which people will think it close. It isn't.

Kenley Sticky Cactus wrote: »

In terms of RP nomination, chances are 'very good indeed', and even Rubio seems to think so.

Very good means nothing really. What % chance do you give him?

4068ac1elhodqr

.

4068ac1elhodqr

It means more than 50%, less than 100% chance of RP. This is actually much more tricky to specify, due to the amount of candidates, shorter timeframes and other increased variance factors. Certain odds on favourite anyway.

Whereas later in the year it's just a two way race in and good chance he may gain an advantage during a very long PR battle.

What % figure, Mellor has your calculator presented you on RP, assuming it's under 49%?

MyPeopleDrankTheSoup

i'm thinking of putting €5000 on hillary to win. i think it's an absolute lock.

Mellor

Kenley Sticky Cactus wrote: »

It means more than 50%, less than 100% chance of RP. This is actually much more tricky to specify, due to the amount of candidates, shorter timeframes and other increased variance factors. Certain odds on favourite anyway.

Whereas later in the year it's just a two way race in and good chance he may gain an advantage during a very long PR battle.

I appreciate it a long way off, and all those are variables in the way. But I don't understand why its more tricky to specify.
He has to become the nominee to become president, so all those varibles candidates, timeframes etc are in the way of him becoming president too.

What % figure, Mellor has your calculator presented you on RP, assuming it's under 49%?

No election calculator here. Wish it were that easy. I'm betting a different angle entirely.

as you asked, say Trump is favourite to win the RP nomination, but not odds on. I'd say an even 50% verses the field.

4068ac1elhodqr

georgiecasey wrote: »

i'm thinking of putting €5000 on hillary to win. i think it's an absolute lock.

In that case between around Oct 1 - Oct 13th 2015 would have been the ideal time to have done that, when she was available at x2.5, now it's x1.9.

Your best plan would be to wait for x2.35 or higher to reappear during the year which is bound to happen at some stage, if even for a short while on the back of a media Exposé, poll results or maybe just a bad day at Q&A session.

Unless of course you have a few of the other main contenders already at double digits, then its a great time.

Canadel

georgiecasey wrote: »

i'm thinking of putting €5000 on hillary to win. i think it's an absolute lock.

I'd nearly match you to make it 10k.

She has this won barring a freak event. Trump is the best thing that could have happened to her.

Amazingfun

So why don't you both do it? I mean, Trump is such a sure bet to lose, right? lol....