Dairy Chit Chat- Please read Mod note in post #1

Buford T. Justice XIX · 06-10-2015 07:52PM

I meant to post this earlier but I was out of the country.

IGA are holding an open day on auto milking and grazing in Templederry near Nenagh tomorrow between 11am and 1pm. All welcome.

mahoney_j · 06-10-2015 07:54PM

Buford T. Justice V wrote: »

I meant to post this earlier but I was out of the country.

IGA are holding an open day on auto milking and grazing in Templederry near Nenagh tomorrow between 11am and 1pm. All welcome.

Very near me and for anyone interested in robots in conjunction with grass it's an event well worth going to .top operators

freedominacup · 06-10-2015 08:03PM

kowtow wrote: »

Could always be a hedge fund taking a nice fat short position ...

more likely though... there are serious fall outs in a fair number of larger global commodity players, and a fair amount of rumours over who is next.

Glencore in particular - which is giant enough to pose systemic risks and carries enormous debt - has seen credit conditions deteriorate explosively & has been having a fire sale of assets in an attempt to shore things up. Whether or not that will succeed will depend on how much world markets calm down in the next few weeks.

Not sure how much Glanbia stock is held by investment funds etc. but there would be a fair amount of sector rebalancing going on which could account for a lot of the volume.

From memory there's around a 200 million shares issued. Is a half million shares traded on a day that remarkable if there's a bit of movement in the share price in either direction?

Glanbia management were fairly open about wanting to get more shares out of farmers hands/traded and into the hands of institutional investors as they felt this would increase share price as demand was there but everyone was holding. Might explain why Glanbia have been leading the race to the bottom.

First spinout led to very few extra shares being traded but if what's being posted here is true then maybe it's a be careful what you wish for moment for Glanbia management. They got the extra shares moving but share price is falling. Conspiracy theorist in me says farmers are getting hosed twice. Once by artificially poor milk price, the second time by artificially poor share price.

Unless something has gone curly stateside Glanbias fundanentals haven't changed. If you have to sell you should hold until the end of the trading period when traders have to balance books unless price is falling off a cliff. Kowtow would understand this and if I'm even slightly wrong he better call me out for the fool I am rather than let anyone do something foolish.

edit; closer to 300 million shares issued.

WheatenBriar · 06-10-2015 08:13PM

Freedom,
Stockmarkets are trending down anyway Glanbia is not immune

3 to 500k trading nearly every day since the spin out certs came is 10s of millions of shares
I'd disagree with kowtow in that it has to be funds buying and many farmers selling
Small shareholders buying wouldn't account for that volume
I doubt farmers are buying, they're hard set to take chunks out of their glanbia trading account never mind buy shares

kowtow · 06-10-2015 08:19PM

freedominacup wrote: »

Glanbias fundanentals haven't changed. If you have to sell you should hold until the end of the trading period ... he better call me out for the fool I am rather than let anyone do something foolish.

I think you are right to be cautious, especially in an illiquid stock, although generally by the time results are out the market has already made it's move (which is why you often get a small bounce up on bad results, for example).

I wouldn't buy them (or any stock for that matter) in the hope that their value is going to increase. It might, but it might drop hard as well, given volatility particularly around commodities & global trade at the moment.

Surely the dividend is quite high compared to what people paid for them?

Can't really see on the graph but I think there might have been a biggish seller of around 63,000 shares at the close.

kowtow · 06-10-2015 08:58PM

WheatenBriar wrote: »

I'd disagree with kowtow in that it has to be funds buying and many farmers selling
Small shareholders buying wouldn't account for that volume
I doubt farmers are buying, they're hard set to take chunks out of their glanbia trading account never mind buy shares

There has never been a trade reported that didn't have both a buyer and a seller, but it's impossible to attribute motives based on volume & price in a stock like this.

Consider that even if a fund is buying it could be closing a short position opened a few weeks ago (at a big profit)... or for that matter first thing this morning or buying as the other side of a paired short sale of a basket of stocks or debt...

Quite a few small trades going on, and it's an illiquid little stock, could well be farmers selling, on the other hand could be funds selling down positions, slicing and dicing the quantities traded to match the volume weighted average.

No reliable way of knowing I'm afraid unless you make a market in it.

atlantic mist · 06-10-2015 11:18PM

freedominacup wrote: »

Glanbia management were fairly open about wanting to get more shares out of farmers hands/traded and into the hands of institutional investors as they felt this would increase share price as demand was there but everyone was holding. Might explain why Glanbia have been leading the race to the bottom.

Yes they stated that at the meeting which i thought was shocking, they wanted the shares out of farmers hands, so they spun out more, its like telling ur boss ah i kind of would prefer someone else to do ur job

institutional investors will want one of 2 things a large dividend each year or a rise in share price to make a profit, the dairy will have to go too low margin which will be a worry if our coop board are not planning for in case,
management pushed for it as most reward incentives offered to employees can be made up by shares especially top table, share price rise is great sure divends is only pocket money

our coop investment is the exact same as an institutional investor we just call ourselves a coop, were actually more of an institutional investor, an institutional investor would drive the business what ever way they want once they build up the coveted 51% of a plc, if thats what there still doing one bought strong after 1st spin out i dnt keep track of them
As an institutional investor/coop we want a large dividend every year (well now we want it both ways we want some of the rise in share price and dividend, some might even say thats a bit greedy:)

i think the constant dividends to us is far more important in the long term while its welcomed unlocking some of the value with the spin outs we have diluted our shareholding does it stop here or do we dilute every year/10years, what is the medium to long term thinking, everyone worked on this for so long what is the goal/vision going forward, keep margins up attract institutional investors to plc get share price increase aided by reducing raw material cost, does the coop unlock more shares then to let farmers share price increase with institutional investors or should i say get the money back for lower prices through the years

whelan2 · 07-10-2015 07:32AM

3 cows left to calve, I have had no milk fever this year, didnt do anything different from last year when every second cow got it. Anyone else have milk fever this year?

Milked out · 07-10-2015 07:36AM

whelan2 wrote: »

3 cows left to calve, I have had no milk fever this year, didnt do anything different from last year when every second cow got it. Anyone else have milk fever this year?

2 own calved and one had it so far. I was surprised she wasn't over fat but she is 4th or 5th lactation now i spose. Will give everything milky or fat a bottle now as precaution anyway

whelan2 · 07-10-2015 07:42AM

I ordered the 100ml bottles of calcium from cahl, very hard to get apparently, where do ye normally get them?

Timmaay · 07-10-2015 10:17AM

whelan2 wrote: »

I ordered the 100ml bottles of calcium from cahl, very hard to get apparently, where do ye normally get them?

magenta direct. never had an issue getting them.

whelan2 · 07-10-2015 10:47AM

whelan2 wrote: »

3 cows left to calve, I have had no milk fever this year, didnt do anything different from last year when every second cow got it. Anyone else have milk fever this year?

2 left now, 1 had twins, a bull and a heifer, third set of twins in the autumn calvers. Used jack for second one- didnt need the tractor:D

Greengrass1 · 07-10-2015 10:55AM

whelan2 wrote: »

3 cows left to calve, I have had no milk fever this year, didnt do anything different from last year when every second cow got it. Anyone else have milk fever this year?

15 calved here and only 3 heifers

10 left.
Supposed to be taking part in a trial with nutribio with the heifer calves. Won't be if I don't get a few more.
1 9 yr old cow with milk fever. Gave her a bottle at calving for precaution but was down next morning. Bottle in vein and bottle behind front leg and she was up in the yard when I was half way through milking

Buford T. Justice XIX · 07-10-2015 11:04AM

whelan2 wrote: »

2 left now, 1 had twins, a bull and a heifer, third set of twins in the autumn calvers. Used jack for second one- didnt need the tractor

Jeep still out of action as well?;)

whelan2 · 07-10-2015 11:05AM

Buford T. Justice V wrote: »

Jeep still out of action as well?;)

sold it yesterday:) looking for another one now

stanflt · 07-10-2015 03:05PM

Greengrass1 wrote: »

15 calved here and only 3 heifers 10 left.
Supposed to be taking part in a trial with nutribio with the heifer calves. Won't be if I don't get a few more.
1 9 yr old cow with milk fever. Gave her a bottle at calving for precaution but was down next morning. Bottle in vein and bottle behind front leg and she was up in the yard when I was half way through milking

10 calved 8 heifers except one of them had a brother-
A 23 month old abo calved and did 27litres on her first day in the tank

Greengrass1 · 07-10-2015 04:28PM

stanflt wrote: »

10 calved 8 heifers except one of them had a brother-
A 23 month old abo calved and did 27litres on her first day in the tank

Going to have to give spring ladies a 8 wk dry at least here 6 wk isn't good enough. There all calving at wk 5. Good condition so no issues that way but there not able to go in tank.

whelan2 · 07-10-2015 07:04PM

stanflt wrote: »

10 calved 8 heifers except one of them had a brother-
A 23 month old abo calved and did 27litres on her first day in the tank

Were they sexed?

stanflt · 07-10-2015 08:12PM

no none sexed

Milked out · 07-10-2015 08:22PM

Lwr had a half sister land this morning, out of phc, 3 calved so far two heifers one of which is v small due to being well before time. 5 or 6 springing nicely hopefully this time next month all bar a few will be calved. Contractor at slurry today and a man power washing for the week so must sort maize pit and a feed barrier in an old hay shed for dry cows and will be nearly there for winter then please god. A few more more dryish weeks would make a massive difference. The extra heifers both yearlings and in calf are horsing thru grass, may house spring calving ones in next two weeks and keep dry cows off concrete as long as possible weather permitting

Anyone with maize thinking of harvesting? A few frosty nights will make the call for us I spose

degetme · 07-10-2015 08:26PM

Milked out wrote: »

Lwr had a half sister land this morning, out of phc, 3 calved so far two heifers one of which is v small due to being well before time. 5 or 6 springing nicely hopefully this time next month all bar a few will be calved. Contractor at slurry today and a man power washing for the week so must sort maize pit and a feed barrier in an old hay shed for dry cows and will be nearly there for winter then please god. A few more more dryish weeks would make a massive difference. The extra heifers both yearlings and in calf are horsing thru grass, may house spring calving ones in next two weeks and keep dry cows off concrete as long as possible weather permitting

Anyone with maize thinking of harvesting? A few frosty nights will make the call for us I spose

I see maize started today in North cork

stanflt · 07-10-2015 08:34PM

Milked out wrote: »

Lwr had a half sister land this morning, out of phc, 3 calved so far two heifers one of which is v small due to being well before time. 5 or 6 springing nicely hopefully this time next month all bar a few will be calved. Contractor at slurry today and a man power washing for the week so must sort maize pit and a feed barrier in an old hay shed for dry cows and will be nearly there for winter then please god. A few more more dryish weeks would make a massive difference. The extra heifers both yearlings and in calf are horsing thru grass, may house spring calving ones in next two weeks and keep dry cows off concrete as long as possible weather permitting

Anyone with maize thinking of harvesting? A few frosty nights will make the call for us I spose

I've 3 lovely black Lwr heifers on the ground- no bulls by him yet

whelan2 · 07-10-2015 09:36PM

http://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/pics-and-stats-from-ucds-new-e2m-dairy-facility/?utm_content=buffer11f6b&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer interesting that over 70% of suitable animals didnt meet disease requirements

Timmaay · 07-10-2015 10:22PM

degetme wrote: »

I see maize started today in North cork

Mine should be cut anyday soon. last 2 weeks made a huge difference.

Dawggone · 08-10-2015 07:24AM

Pandemonium with cows here this morning. Cups always on at 6:30 every morning, but 3 local schools coming to see a working farm and can't start 'till 9:00.
After milking will be spreading fym and planting some wheat for the kids to see.
Must be the least productive day of the year.

Deepsouthwest · 08-10-2015 08:22AM

Dawggone wrote: »

Pandemonium with cows here this morning. Cups always on at 6:30 every morning, but 3 local schools coming to see a working farm and can't start 'till 9:00.
After milking will be spreading fym and planting some wheat for the kids to see.
Must be the least productive day of the year.

Ah relax, if it doesn't suit u then u should've said no. Get the odd ag science class here from the local school, and I think it's grand.
Milk away, surely to see the last row being milked will be enough, they'll be bored after 5 mins anyway!

Dawggone · 08-10-2015 08:29AM

Deepsouthwest wrote: »

Ah relax, if it doesn't suit u then u should've said no. Get the odd ag science class here from the local school, and I think it's grand.
Milk away, surely to see the last row being milked will be enough, they'll be bored after 5 mins anyway!

As chilled as can be DSW!
They are all drinking hot milk from styrofoam cups now. Yeuch!

I can't really turn them down as its being going on here for 30yrs or more. Half of them watching a cow calving...should I get the jeep or a big tractor to pull calf??:)

RightTurnClyde · 08-10-2015 08:43AM

Let the cow eat the afterbirth...that's always good to produce a fainter or a yeoch

Dawggone · 08-10-2015 08:50AM

RightTurnClyde wrote: »

Let the cow eat the afterbirth...that's always good to produce a fainter or a yeoch

Lol. Nice one!

Brown Podzol · 08-10-2015 10:07AM

Dawggone wrote: »

Pandemonium with cows here this morning. Cups always on at 6:30 every morning, but 3 local schools coming to see a working farm and can't start 'till 9:00.
After milking will be spreading fym and planting some wheat for the kids to see.
Must be the least productive day of the year.

Be nice. Future workforce.

Dairy Chit Chat- Please read Mod note in post #1

Comments