Is Joe Schmidt concealing his hand?

blackcard · 30-08-2015 1:32pm #1

When Joe was in charge of Leinster, they were the most exciting club team in Europe scoring tries for fun. Since he became Irish manager, with the odd exception such as the last Scottish match in the 6N, we have played pragmatic, winning, but boring rugby. Scrum half box kicks or out half kicks and we contest the catches. We try and maul our way for a try and we don't offload in the tackle. The tactics have been successful bringing us two 6N and up to number 2 in the world rankings. However, I don't think our current method of playing will bring us far in the world cup. I appreciate that Joe may have some set plays up his sleeve but has he anything else? Is there an offloading game which he will unleash or a bold running game?

30-08-2015 1:38pm

blackcard wrote: »

When Joe was in charge of Leinster, they were the most exciting club team in Europe scoring tries for fun. Since he became Irish manager, with the odd exception such as the last Scottish match in the 6N, we have played pragmatic, winning, but boring rugby. Scrum half box kicks or out half kicks and we contest the catches. We try and maul our way for a try and we don't offload in the tackle. The tactics have been successful bringing us two 6N and up to number 2 in the world rankings. However, I don't think our current method of playing will bring us far in the world cup. I appreciate that Joe may have some set plays up his sleeve but has he anything else? Is there an offloading game which he will unleash or a bold running game?

When he announces the squad tomorrow he'll also announce Deccie Kidney is coming back as backs coach and then we'll see sparks fly.

phog · 30-08-2015 1:39pm

He had Luke on the wing for that Scottish game.

Buer · 30-08-2015 1:40pm

In test rugby, you don't get the non-stop access to players and game time to be able to perfect that sort of game plan. The game we play is low risk but also has a high rate of success. We have guys playing together who rarely take the field with one another. That coupled with the fact that skill levels in Ireland aren't something that are as high as the likes of NZ from an early age makes it hard to play that sort of game with limited training time.

Maybe in another year, we'll be able to gel like that but we're not going to see slick moves between Sexton and Henshaw (6th start together yesterday) or Henshaw and Payne (also have 6 starts next to one another) and wingers who regularly change outside them.

blackcard · 30-08-2015 1:45pm

Buer wrote: »

In test rugby, you don't get the non-stop access to players and game time to be able to perfect that sort of game plan. The game we play is low risk but also has a high rate of success. We have guys playing together who rarely take the field with one another. That coupled with the fact that skill levels in Ireland aren't something that are as high as the likes of NZ from an early age makes it hard to play that sort of game with limited training time.

Maybe in another year, we'll be able to gel like that but we're not going to see slick moves between Sexton and Henshaw (6th start together yesterday) or Henshaw and Payne (also have 6 starts next to one another) and wingers who regularly change outside them.

Seriously? Sexton and Henshaw are professionals who have had numerous training sessions together over the last year and are currently in a period when they are together continuously for a couple of months.

Buer · 30-08-2015 1:50pm

blackcard wrote: »

Seriously? Sexton and Henshaw are professionals who have had numerous training sessions together over the last year and are currently in a period when they are together continuously for a couple of months.

You don't replicate match pace and pressure in training or come close to it. It's a different kettle of fish entirely. Henshaw is a young guy, getting up to speed with test rugby and being allowed concentrate on his own game in a position he never played before Schmidt asked him to play there in November.

They're not going to click immediate but I'd expect that we'll see more of it now in the next 5-10 test matches, hopefully.

aimee1 · 30-08-2015 1:50pm

blackcard wrote: »

Seriously? Sexton and Henshaw are professionals who have had numerous training sessions together over the last year and are currently in a period when they are together continuously for a couple of months.

ireland have 3 games with 3 different 9-10-12-13 selections. In the lead up to these games they have had those selections training together.

Our peak needs to come on the 4th and 11th of october, not in RWC warm up games. In the past year ireland beat SA and AUS as well as a second consecutive 6n.

A bit of Context required.

blackcard · 30-08-2015 1:55pm

aimee1 wrote: »

ireland have 3 games with 3 different 9-10-12-13 selections. In the lead up to these games they have had those selections training together.

Our peak needs to come on the 4th and 11th of october, not in RWC warm up games. In the past year ireland beat SA and AUS as well as a second consecutive 6n.

A bit of Context required.

I appreciate that now is not the time to peak and really hope that I am proved wrong in thinking that the style that we have played in the last two years will only bring us so far. It is low risk in that we are unlikely to concede too many tries but we are also unlikely to score many either

aimee1 · 30-08-2015 1:59pm

blackcard wrote: »

I appreciate that now is not the time to peak and really hope that I am proved wrong in thinking that the style that we have played in the last two years will only bring us so far. It is low risk in that we are unlikely to concede too many tries but we are also unlikely to score many either

well we have two consecutive 6n on points difference, so again CONTEXT

World cups are won on low risk. NZ won the last final 8-7

There has been something like only 6-7 tries scored in total in the last 5 RWC finals combined

blackcard · 30-08-2015 2:06pm

aimee1 wrote: »

well we have two consecutive 6n on points difference, so again CONTEXT

World cups are won on low risk. NZ won the last final 8-7

There has been something like only 6-7 tries scored in total in the last 5 RWC finals combined

If you read my first post, you will see that I acknowledge the 6 nations successes, I just don't think the same tactics will be successful in the World Cup. The likes of France will be too powerful for us just as the Welsh were yesterday

aimee1 · 30-08-2015 2:12pm

blackcard wrote: »

If you read my first post, you will see that I acknowledge the 6 nations successes, I just don't think the same tactics will be successful in the World Cup. The likes of France will be too powerful for us just as the Welsh were yesterday

the france game is 6 weeks away. Not next week. Wales have a different priority. So again, you need to take things in context. Wales are working to a different plan which has involved their first choice XV plus 4-5 others working as a group towards trying to get our of their group. Their prep for the RWC is going to be very different to ours.

They put out a dummy team in cardiff 3 weeks ago because of this. Irelands main concern from these games are two fold ...

1. gametime for players
2. minimal injuries, especially to key players.

CatFromHue · 30-08-2015 2:19pm

aimee1 wrote: »

ireland have 3 games with 3 different 9-10-12-13 selections. In the lead up to these games they have had those selections training together.

Our peak needs to come on the 4th and 11th of october, not in RWC warm up games. In the past year ireland beat SA and AUS as well as a second consecutive 6n.

A bit of Context required.

I'm wondering when we'll be putting our strongest team out

Sat 5 Sep Eng v Ire
Sat 19 Sep Ire v Can
Sun 27 Sep Ire v Rom
Sun 4 Oct Ire v Ita
Sun 11 Oct Fra v Ire

So it's two weeks between the England game and the start of the RWC and 4 weeks from the England game before the Italian one.

I'm guessing as strong as possible against England and then the Canadian and Romanian ones could be mixed strength games. Or it could be as strong as possible against England and Canada and then a second team out v Romania.

aimee1 · 30-08-2015 2:25pm

CatFromHue wrote: »

I'm wondering when we'll be putting our strongest team out

Sat 5 Sep Eng v Ire
Sat 19 Sep Ire v Can
Sun 27 Sep Ire v Rom
Sun 4 Oct Ire v Ita
Sun 11 Oct Fra v Ire

So it's two weeks between the England game and the start of the RWC and 4 weeks from the England game before the Italian one.

I'm guessing as strong as possible against England and then the Canadian and Romanian ones could be mixed strength games. Or it could be as strong as possible against England and Canada and then a second team out v Romania.

hard to know but i reckon some players will have minimal gametime in the warm ups but will be involved in all 4 group games [injury permitting]

irishbucsfan · 30-08-2015 2:31pm

World Cup rugby is normally extremely intense and rarely produces open running or anything particularly intricate. The teams that have won the last 3 world cups have also generally been the teams with the best kicking game.

I think we'll see some new stuff but I don't see we'll see any change in approach.

aimee1 · 30-08-2015 2:34pm

irishbucsfan wrote: »

I think we'll see some new stuff but I don't see we'll see any change in approach.

and the new stuff is likely to come off first phase/setpiece in opposition 22 as well

smiley_face · 30-08-2015 2:40pm

blackcard wrote: »

When Joe was in charge of Leinster, they were the most exciting club team in Europe scoring tries for fun. Since he became Irish manager, with the odd exception such as the last Scottish match in the 6N, we have played pragmatic, winning, but boring rugby. Scrum half box kicks or out half kicks and we contest the catches. We try and maul our way for a try and we don't offload in the tackle. The tactics have been successful bringing us two 6N and up to number 2 in the world rankings. However, I don't think our current method of playing will bring us far in the world cup. I appreciate that Joe may have some set plays up his sleeve but has he anything else? Is there an offloading game which he will unleash or a bold running game?

We have the players to execute the same style Leinster employed, but frustratingly we don't try to play that way.
I expect we will continue exactly as we did in the 6 Nations, which includes kicking away the ball when it's in our half, and waiting til we're near the opposition 22 before trying any back play through the hands, and the odd set-piece from the lineout.
The squad selection will probably tell you, if Bowe, Trimble, D Kearney and Fitz are all selected then forget about any flair moves, it will be kick chase all day long, boring but if we can get the lead early on it is a good way to defend a lead if done with precision.
Otherwise if Earls, Zebo and Jones are selected we might see some attacking running out wide. I hope to God we have some pace in the back line or this will be a very boring campaign of high ball tennis.

slingerz · 30-08-2015 2:43pm

It will be a strong team against England but I can't see it being full strength either

OldRio · 30-08-2015 2:52pm

I was working in England in 1991. The World Cup was hosted by the 5 Nations teams. England scored 11 tries in 6 games. 9 of those tries against USA and Italy. And yet they reached the final.
The newspapers and 'pundits' criticised the manner in which England played. And yet it produced results.

Therefore Gatland and others can do and say what they like but at the end of the day results are the only thing that matters in Cup competitions.

smiley_face · 30-08-2015 2:57pm

slingerz wrote: »

It will be a strong team against England but I can't see it being full strength either

I would absolutely pick a full strength team, and bench, as we need a proper test match to steel up the team.
We have to forget about the possibility of injuries now and just plow on with full commitment and deal with whatever injuries arise. We have plenty of strength in depth to carry on if we do get injuries against England and I include 9 and 10 in that.

aimee1 · 30-08-2015 2:58pm

smiley_face wrote: »

I would absolutely pick a full strength team, and bench, as we need a proper test match to steel up the team.
We have to forget about the possibility of injuries now and just plow on with full commitment and deal with whatever injuries arise. We have plenty of strength in depth to carry on if we do get injuries against England and I include 9 and 10 in that.

madigan at 9 and marmion at 10? whoever does best goes as a 9.5 ?

30-08-2015 4:39pm

For many years Brazil's approach to football was always score more than you conceded and Italy's was defend defend defend and win one nil. Both successful approaches for them, one was entertaining for the viewer and one bored the hell out of the viewer. You have to play and style yourself to the skills and abilities of your players.

Personally I feel a big issue revolves around our scrum half, Murray is great at what he does and the game plan we have seen for the last few years but he suffers an inability to play a fast ball/game from the bottom of a ruck, I can't remember ever seeing him doing that consistently in a game. Reddan and Boss could do it and drove Leinster on in their golden years but with age they are losing the lungs and concentration to keep it up now. Leinster used to be devastating with fast ball, not letting defences set and keeping them constantly on the back foot and then pulling them left and right before blitzing a gap to score tries.

Now a lot of Ireland's tries are off set pieces and as a result can be easily defended unless you come up with some new play, playing in tight can be tedious and takes time and players have to be very accurate in what they are doing.

As to the OP's first post, Yes personally I always think that Joe likes holding his hand tight and not showing too much, he is right, as others have said and I said yesterday to my wife it's only a warm up game with very little at stake other than players getting a run out together in a semi competitive game and getting back up to speed.

I actually got more out of the first game against Wales, what I saw in that game was a lot of Joe's thoughts and practices having seeped all the way down to the "B" players, what I saw in that game was very encouraging. I saw players who at best would be on the fringe and only in with a chance if the first and second choices got injured. These players were still very accurate and executed the Joe plan.

irishbucsfan · 30-08-2015 4:58pm

Murray has played a quick game in the past. Ireland v Argentina in 2012 is the first example that comes to mind: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ld-4rZg9HI

But he hasn't been asked to play that way much since. He won't be asked to play that way in the World Cup either.

lucky_luke · 30-08-2015 5:02pm

I think he will mostly stick to the conservative game plan. It's better to win ugly than lose with flashy play.

There was a good article about the German football team prior to the WC final. It talked about how Joachim Lowe had changed from stylish spectator soccer in 2012 to more pragmatic footie for 2014 and it worked

awec · 30-08-2015 6:19pm

I don't think we've been conservative under Schmidt. I think we've been pragmatic. Conservative rugby is up the jumper stuff and that's boring to watch.

We do attempt back moves, but there's no way Ireland are going to play like Leinster did under Schmidt.

penybont exile · 31-08-2015 9:08pm

To answer the thread title IMO .... No.

Anyone thinking Ireland are going to rock up with a new game plan are going to be disappointed. Ireland have a good team and a proven game plan. They need to bring this to the party and execute it a lot better than they managed on Saturday.

France will target them physically .... Remember the last 20 minutes of the 6N game this year. I think Ireland are susceptible to this approach and will find it difficult to counter.

irishbucsfan · 31-08-2015 9:10pm

penybont exile wrote: »

To answer the thread title IMO .... No.

Anyone thinking Ireland are going to rock up with a new game plan are going to be disappointed. Ireland have a good team and a proven game plan. They need to bring this to the party and execute it a lot better than they managed on Saturday.

France will target them physically .... Remember the last 20 minutes of the 6N game this year. I think Ireland are susceptible to this approach and will find it difficult to counter.

Warren Gatland disagrees with you though it seems!

“Look, I’m not being critical of Ireland. What Joe and that Irish team has achieved is absolutely outstanding. They’ve got a formula that has been successful for them. I’m sure they will tweak a few things and look to try and add things to their game.

“I’m sure they are very much like us – we haven’t brought everything to the table yet. Haven’t shown things, we are keeping things behind for the next few weeks because there is so much analysis going on if we showed everything we are going to do it is not going to be a surprise for that first big game which is going to be England in Twickenham.”

penybont exile · 31-08-2015 9:39pm

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Warren Gatland disagrees with you though it seems!

It's all BS for the media.

The reality is each team has a style of play which will be adhered to when the party starts. You can practice a few set-piece moves etc. but ultimately this doesn't change an awful lot.

It's a simple game. Players in situations will have a number of options open to them ranging from good to bad. It's up to the players on the pitch to choose the options at the good end of the spectrum and have the skills to execute on them. If Wales / Ireland can do this they can have an impact on the tournament as they both have solid, well trodden patterns of play.

(The AB's are the best because they are good at the art of option taking and they have a good skill set).

It's always been thus ...... The rest is the world we live in and the insatiable desire for column inches ........

molloyjh · 01-09-2015 8:15am

penybont exile wrote: »

It's all BS for the media.

The reality is each team has a style of play which will be adhered to when the party starts. You can practice a few set-piece moves etc. but ultimately this doesn't change an awful lot.

It's a simple game. Players in situations will have a number of options open to them ranging from good to bad. It's up to the players on the pitch to choose the options at the good end of the spectrum and have the skills to execute on them. If Wales / Ireland can do this they can have an impact on the tournament as they both have solid, well trodden patterns of play.

(The AB's are the best because they are good at the art of option taking and they have a good skill set).

It's always been thus ...... The rest is the world we live in and the insatiable desire for column inches ........

Ireland will vary their game. Joe has often talked about how if you stand still you'll get left behind. There's no way we're going to play the very same as we did in the 6 Nations.

Noopti · 01-09-2015 8:27am

He is most definitely concealing his hand. Why would any coach reveal anything in warm up matches? Those matches are there to ramp up fitness, to test some new combinations and further assess certain players - and you don't need to open up the playbook to do that. The management will have game plans for every group game, and they will most definitely be reserving certain tactics and plays for France.

There was always a perception, in my mind anyway, when Joe was with Leinster that he held back certain plays and tactics, only to reveal them when needed or in certain key games. And there were plenty of matches where Leinster would grind out wins.

This thing about Leinster cutting loose all the time, that is simply because Leinster played so many more games than Ireland. I'd say if you did some analysis on all of Leinster's games and which were dogfights and which were free flowing try fests you would probably find the ratio of one to the other is the same as with Ireland.

wittycynic · 01-09-2015 9:46am

penybont exile wrote: »

To answer the thread title IMO .... No.

Anyone thinking Ireland are going to rock up with a new game plan are going to be disappointed. Ireland have a good team and a proven game plan. They need to bring this to the party and execute it a lot better than they managed on Saturday.

France will target them physically .... Remember the last 20 minutes of the 6N game this year. I think Ireland are susceptible to this approach and will find it difficult to counter.

I agree that this is where Ireland are vulnerable. Our backrow can seem a little underpowered compared to some of the other units out there and there's definitely and argument for starting/using Henderson at 6 to add some extra firepower in that area of the pitch.

Similarly, there are question marks over the scrummaging ability of our reserve front row that will inevitably be introduced with fifteen minutes to go. I really hope that McGrath, Cronin, and White can stand up to their French counterparts in the set piece, as this could be a target area for penalties in final portions of the game.

But with that said, no team can excel in all areas, and even the All Blacks' pack has been thoroughly outmuscled at times. We're like any good team. If our key men are performing well and exhibiting accuracy in the execution of our gameplan, we'll probably win. If guys like Murray and Sexton play like they did at the weekend, we probably won't.

ManAboutCouch · 01-09-2015 10:36am

In all this talk of Joe not replicating Leinster's style with Ireland one thing seems to be overlooked: the international game is different. There is much less room, decisions have to be made a lot quicker and playing the percentages is more likely to be successful.

No doubt the Irish back room team have come up with a range of first or second phase plays that we haven't seen yet, but there's virtually no chance of a sudden switch to an offloading game with all sorts of fancy back moves. No team* plays like that in the business end of the World Cup.

(*Except France, sometimes)

jacothelad · 01-09-2015 10:40am

Noopti wrote: »

. And there were plenty of matches where Leinster would grind out wins.

This thing about Leinster cutting loose all the time, that is simply because Leinster played so many more games than Ireland. I'd say if you did some analysis on all of Leinster's games and which were dogfights and which were free flowing try fests you would probably find the ratio of one to the other is the same as with Ireland.

There seems to be a bit of selective memory at play. Leinster often won games with forward power. I was surprised to find that in only one season since '09 did Leinster end up as top try scorers.
2009. Ulster 39 / 35 tries. Leinster 27 / 29
2010. Ospreys 56 / 29. ....Leinster 50 / 25
2011. Ulster 53 / 41.........Leinster 48 / 28
2012. Leinster 63 / 46......Ulster 62 / 33
2013. Ospreys 59 / 32......Leinster 57 / 30
2014. Munster 68 / 31......Leinster 54 / 39

Interestingly the scores by Leinster Munster and Ulster are

'09 - '15. Leinster 299 / 197
'09 - '15. Ulster 302 / 204
'09 - '15. Munster 292 / 161

It's surprising that during that period when both Munster and particularly Leinster were very successful that while Ulster scored more tries and conceded just a few more than Leinster, they lost many close games by not having a high level kicker. Munster have nearly always had the best try defence.

None of this means anything really but I found it surprising and interesting.

LuckyLloyd · 01-09-2015 10:52am

Why do you need to play a certain way to win? Why can the current approach not be successful in a knock out tournament? More pertinently, if that's the most logical approach given the make up of the players available and their relative quality at the highest level of the game why would you strive to play a more open / attacking / dynamic / pleasing (delete as appropriate) game plan?

Snickers Man · 01-09-2015 1:35pm

Is Joe Schmidt concealing his hand? Sure is, because when you've got crap cards, all you can do is bluff.

Ireland has shown nothing in the back line, when it counts, for the past season and a half. Since O'Driscoll retired we have not bothered to attack in the backs. And even in his last season or so we were very sparing in using our backs for anything other than chasing kicks. That's a long time to keep your hand hidden.

Maybe like Trapattoni and O'Neill with the soccer team Schmidt just does not have faith in Irish players' ability to play a fast attacking offloading game so he sticks with traditional hoof 'n horlicks or boot, bite&bollock Irish forward oriented play.

Sadly, it's probably our best option but it won't cut it against the top teams.
If we're lucky against France we might get a q final against Argentina which MIGHT just see us make the semis for the first time ever. But that's not certain. And if France play with their tails up, we just won't have enough fire power to reel them in.

What "cards" do you think Joe has to whip out of his hand and play? Darren Cave? Dave Kearney? Henshaw and Payne?

Fraid we're back to the days of playing hard-tackling hard-handed three quarters and trying to convince ourselves they constitute an attacking threat.

I'm old enough to remember when press "analysis" said that the likes of Phil Danagher, Alastair McKibbin, inter alia were "exciting" prospects. They'd tackle an elephant but that was the limit of their skills. With O'Driscoll we had a one-off who had the pace and eye for the gap to make a break and make it look easy. In that sense, he was a very atypical Irish centre. Might have to get used to more stolid fare for a while.

Hope I'm wrong but we could have a fairly dour set of matches ending in the inevitable whimpering exit.

Noopti · 01-09-2015 1:40pm

Snickers Man wrote: »

Is Joe Schmidt concealing his hand? Sure is, because when you've got crap cards, all you can do is bluff.

Ireland has shown nothing in the back line, when it counts, for the past season and a half.

What does "when it counts" mean?

I would suggest when it counts would mean when we needed to rack up a score against Scotland this year in the 6N to have a chance of winning it? In which case, we did show it.

Or it could mean against Italy in the 2014 6N for the same reason? In which case, we did show it.

Interesting.

Podge_irl · 01-09-2015 1:44pm

Snickers Man wrote: »

If we're lucky against France we might get a q final against Argentina which MIGHT just see us make the semis for the first time ever. But that's not certain. And if France play with their tails up, we just won't have enough fire power to reel them in.

We do we need to get lucky to beat a team we haven't lost to in 4 years?

I do agree that I wouldn't expect to see any massive change in approach though. I would disagree that it is not enough however. NZ are the only top team Ireland haven't beaten in the last two years sure.

shuffol · 01-09-2015 2:40pm

jacothelad wrote: »

There seems to be a bit of selective memory at play. Leinster often won games with forward power. I was surprised to find that in only one season since '09 did Leinster end up as top try scorers.
2009. Ulster 39 / 35 tries. Leinster 27 / 29
2010. Ospreys 56 / 29. ....Leinster 50 / 25
2011. Ulster 53 / 41.........Leinster 48 / 28
2012. Leinster 63 / 46......Ulster 62 / 33
2013. Ospreys 59 / 32......Leinster 57 / 30
2014. Munster 68 / 31......Leinster 54 / 39

Interestingly the scores by Leinster Munster and Ulster are

'09 - '15. Leinster 299 / 197
'09 - '15. Ulster 302 / 204
'09 - '15. Munster 292 / 161

It's surprising that during that period when both Munster and particularly Leinster were very successful that while Ulster scored more tries and conceded just a few more than Leinster, they lost many close games by not having a high level kicker. Munster have nearly always had the best try defence.

None of this means anything really but I found it surprising and interesting.

Leinster usually being pre-occupied with the HEC late into the season would have an effect there, also we were quite heavily effected by international call ups which meant that we were usually slow starters and wouldn't have had as settled a side as other teams.

ionadnapokot · 01-09-2015 2:44pm

Snickers Man wrote: »

Is Joe Schmidt concealing his hand? Sure is, because when you've got crap cards, all you can do is bluff.

Ireland has shown nothing in the back line, when it counts, for the past season and a half. Since O'Driscoll retired we have not bothered to attack in the backs. And even in his last season or so we were very sparing in using our backs for anything other than chasing kicks. That's a long time to keep your hand hidden.

Maybe like Trapattoni and O'Neill with the soccer team Schmidt just does not have faith in Irish players' ability to play a fast attacking offloading game so he sticks with traditional hoof 'n horlicks or boot, bite&bollock Irish forward oriented play.

Sadly, it's probably our best option but it won't cut it against the top teams.
If we're lucky against France we might get a q final against Argentina which MIGHT just see us make the semis for the first time ever. But that's not certain. And if France play with their tails up, we just won't have enough fire power to reel them in.

What "cards" do you think Joe has to whip out of his hand and play? Darren Cave? Dave Kearney? Henshaw and Payne?

Fraid we're back to the days of playing hard-tackling hard-handed three quarters and trying to convince ourselves they constitute an attacking threat.

I'm old enough to remember when press "analysis" said that the likes of Phil Danagher, Alastair McKibbin, inter alia were "exciting" prospects. They'd tackle an elephant but that was the limit of their skills. With O'Driscoll we had a one-off who had the pace and eye for the gap to make a break and make it look easy. In that sense, he was a very atypical Irish centre. Might have to get used to more stolid fare for a while.

Hope I'm wrong but we could have a fairly dour set of matches ending in the inevitable whimpering exit.

Agree with most of what you say. Particularly the bit in bold.
But......it is extremely effective rugby*. *When you're leading on the score board.
It's limitations were shown against England in ('14) and Wales ('15). Equally its effectiveness was shown against England in ('15) and Wales ('14).
We are not going to change the way we play now. Esp with Henshaw at 12. But he is vital to how JS wants to play (hence Cave call-up).

I dont agree that we will need to be lucky against France if we have PO'C, SO'B, MR, CM, JS, Healy, Henshaw & Heaslip (Ha...Tripple H!).
I can see this team getting to a semi final v's Aus. Again if we have all the players above available we can win that game. With a few strikes moves off first phase ball which King Joe is definitely keeping under wraps;)

Snickers Man · 01-09-2015 4:57pm

Noopti wrote: »

What does "when it counts" mean?

I would suggest when it counts would mean when we needed to rack up a score against Scotland this year in the 6N to have a chance of winning it? In which case, we did show it.

Or it could mean against Italy in the 2014 6N for the same reason? In which case, we did show it.

Interesting.

Scotland and Italy are hardly comparable with New Zealand, S Africa, Australia, France or England are they?

There's a term for people who can throw it about against the little guys but retreat into their shells against serious opposition: Flat Track Bullies.

Snickers Man · 01-09-2015 5:10pm

Podge_irl wrote: »

We do we need to get lucky to beat a team we haven't lost to in 4 years?

There is only one team in the 6N against whom we have a losing record since the tournament began in its current form in 2000.

Guess who?

Record since 2010 (6N only) P6 W2 D2 L2
2000-2009 P10 W4 D0 L6

Earlier than that, it just gets embarrassing
1990-1999 P10 W0 D0 L10
1980-1989 P10 W1 D1 L8
1970-1979 P10* W3 D2 L5
1960-1969 P10 W1 D1 L8

*Not including "Extra" match in 1972

France is a team we often have trouble beating, even when we can stuff everybody else.

Snickers Man · 01-09-2015 5:12pm

ionadnapokot wrote: »

Agree with most of what you say. Particularly the bit in bold.
But......it is extremely effective rugby*. *When you're leading on the score board........

.... Again if we have all the players above available we can win that game. With a few strikes moves off first phase ball which King Joe is definitely keeping under wraps;)

I REALLY REALLY REALLY hope you're right.

Ceadog · 01-09-2015 6:30pm

England won the RWC in 2003 playing 10 man rugby, as did SA in 2007. The AB pretty much fell over the line in 2011 so they don't really count, but still, history has shown that a competent, experienced pack and a top notch kicking game will get you very far at the World Cup.

LorMal · 01-09-2015 7:40pm

Snickers Man wrote: »

There is only one team in the 6N against whom we have a losing record since the tournament began in its current form in 2000.

Guess who?

Record since 2010 (6N only) P6 W2 D2 L2
2000-2009 P10 W4 D0 L6

Earlier than that, it just gets embarrassing
1990-1999 P10 W0 D0 L10
1980-1989 P10 W1 D1 L8
1970-1979 P10* W3 D2 L5
1960-1969 P10 W1 D1 L8

*Not including "Extra" match in 1972

France is a team we often have trouble beating, even when we can stuff everybody else.

Spot on, Snickers Man. Too much blind optimism and wishful thinking going on here.
If we were currently playing a Leinster style passing game, everyone would be saying that Joe knows how to unpick defences and allows our players to innovate and trust their instincts and play what's front of them (insert other cliches of your choosing) and that everyone else is boring and negative.
Because we are playing hoof and run instead, it must mean that Joe has secret moves up his sleeve or that approach this is the best way to win tournaments or that it is a master strategy.
We have squeezed out 2x6 nations when the Italian, Scottish and French teams have been terrible and the English have been building. We have beaten Aus and SA in friendlies. We have no evidence that this Ireland team, playing this style of rugby, can win the World Cup - not even close.

ionadnapokot · 01-09-2015 9:17pm

LorMal wrote: »

Spot on, Snickers Man. Too much blind optimism and wishful thinking going on here.
If we were currently playing a Leinster style passing game at the, all would be saying that Joe knows how to unpick defences and allows our players to innovate and trust their instincts and play what's front of them (insert other cliches of your choosing) and that everyone else is boring and negative.
Because we are playing hoof and run instead, it must mean that Joe has secret moves up his sleeve or that approach this is the best way to win tournaments or that it is a master strategy.
We have squeezed out 2x6 nations when the Italian, Scottish and French teams have been terrible and the English have been building. We have beaten Aus and SA in friendlies. We have no evidence that this Ireland team, playing this style of rugby, can win the World Cup - not even close.

Well In fairness there are very few posters, if any, saying that Ireland are going to win the WC.
But it is reasonable to expect us to get to a semi, or even a final, based on JS record with this Irish team.
Under JS we have played France twice. And won both. Albeit they were close.
We have played Argentina 3 times and beat them. But they will be a far tougher proposition in this WC.
Hopefully that could see us into a semi final against opposition who we have a 50 - 50 chance of beating based on recent games against them (Aus, Eng & Wales).
So i would say there is plenty of recent evidence to suggest that Ireland could come close to winning a WC.
I do agree that the type of rugby we play severely limits are options in attack.
It would be extremely naive of other teams at the WC to ignore the possibility that JS's Ireland do not have any strike moves planned.

LorMal · 01-09-2015 9:56pm

ionadnapokot wrote: »

Well In fairness there are very few posters, if any, saying that Ireland are going to win the WC.
But it is reasonable to expect us to get to a semi, or even a final, based on JS record with this Irish team.
Under JS we have played France twice. And won both. Albeit they were close.
We have played Argentina 3 times and beat them. But they will be a far tougher proposition in this WC.
Hopefully that could see us into a semi final against opposition who we have a 50 - 50 chance of beating based on recent games against them (Aus, Eng & Wales).
So i would say there is plenty of recent evidence to suggest that Ireland could come close to winning a WC.
I do agree that the type of rugby we play severely limits are options in attack.
It would be extremely naive of other teams at the WC to ignore the possibility that JS's Ireland do not have any strike moves planned.

my problem is with the narrative that we will beat the French because we have beaten them twice recently. I don't think that matters one jot going into the World Cup. They should have won the last WC - even though they were rubbish leading up to it and through the earlier matches.
They are a different bouilloire de poissons when they are playing together as a team over an extended period. They even get slightly fit and cut down a bit on the fags.
However, if we do beat them, Australia or England (at home in a SF) will be far from a 50:50 for us. Not impossible by any means but very very difficult given our scarce resources and one dimensional approach. Hope I'm wrong (I usually am).

ionadnapokot · 01-09-2015 10:28pm

LorMal wrote: »

my problem is with the narrative that we will beat the French because we have beaten them twice recently. I don't think that matters one jot going into the World Cup. They should have won the last WC - even though they were rubbish leading up to it and through the earlier matches.
They are a different bouilloire de poissons when they are playing together as a team over an extended period. They even get slightly fit and cut down a bit on the fags.
However, if we do beat them, Australia or England (at home in a SF) will be far from a 50:50 for us. Not impossible by any means but very very difficult given our scarce resources and one dimensional approach. Hope I'm wrong (I usually am).

Mange tout Rodney. Mange tout.

ionadnapokot · 01-09-2015 10:37pm

Bookies rate our chances of reaching the final right now at 33% or 25% (depending on bookies). If we are in a semi against Eng, Aus or Wal, with our key players available i reckon they would rate us at 50 or 45% to reach the final.

irishbucsfan · 01-09-2015 10:44pm

LorMal wrote: »

They are a different bouilloire de poissons when they are playing together as a team over an extended period.

Well we've found Gerry

ionadnapokot · 01-09-2015 10:45pm

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Well we've found Gerry

Assuredly

LorMal · 02-09-2015 8:01am

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Well we've found Gerry

I don't know what you're talking about. Swing from the hip, coaching ticket, bulk suppliers, it's easy from the cheap seats, I agree with Fester, game management..

molloyjh · 02-09-2015 8:04am

LorMal wrote: »

Spot on, Snickers Man. Too much blind optimism and wishful thinking going on here.
If we were currently playing a Leinster style passing game, everyone would be saying that Joe knows how to unpick defences and allows our players to innovate and trust their instincts and play what's front of them (insert other cliches of your choosing) and that everyone else is boring and negative.
Because we are playing hoof and run instead, it must mean that Joe has secret moves up his sleeve or that approach this is the best way to win tournaments or that it is a master strategy.
We have squeezed out 2x6 nations when the Italian, Scottish and French teams have been terrible and the English have been building. We have beaten Aus and SA in friendlies. We have no evidence that this Ireland team, playing this style of rugby, can win the World Cup - not even close.

No evidence at all, once you exclude the facts that we've won the last 2 6 Nations and beaten every side we've played bar NZ, which was an incredibly close (and dodgy given that decision from Nige) result.

Teams that have won the RWC during the professional era have rarely done so playing expansive running rugby. So there's not much evidence that we have to change our game plan at all.

Is Joe Schmidt concealing his hand?

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