The 2015 All Ireland Senior Football Championship

Hibbeler · 13-07-2015 08:51AM

Westmeath and Fermanagh both have a great change of a qf based on that draw

Ceist_Beag · 13-07-2015 09:09AM

Great draw in 3B. I fancy Tipp might just beat Tyrone, no doubt there will be mention of the U21s to stoke things up a bit! Galway v Derry is a hard one to call - home advantage may help Galway but Derry look like the strongest team in the B qualifiers so I think they might win out here.
I think Kildare have gone as far as they can but Fermanagh v Westmeath is a great draw for both counties, it would be great to see either in a QF.

Fr Tod Umptious · 13-07-2015 09:22AM

Hibbeler wrote: »

Westmeath and Fermanagh both have a great change of a qf based on that draw

Moral should be good in Fermanagh.
And Westmeath got less destroyed by Dublin than others did so they will be looking on the positives.

intellectual dosser · 13-07-2015 10:17AM

Westmeath lost by less that Dublin's average Leinster opponents, but they still only scored 6 points. I guess its a matter of perspective, the team psychologist has his work cut out.

Fr Tod Umptious · 13-07-2015 10:47AM

intellectual dosser wrote: »

Westmeath lost by less that Dublin's average Leinster opponents, but they still only scored 6 points. I guess its a matter of perspective, the team psychologist has his work cut out.

They had a plan and that plan was to park the bus and take their chances on the break.
That was about all they could do.
It worked fine in the first half, although their shooting could have been better.

Unlike other teams they did not get blown away in the opening quarter.

So going into a game v Fermanagh on neutral ground they will be in decent enough shape.

intellectual dosser · 13-07-2015 10:51AM

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

They had a plan and that plan was to park the bus and take their chances on the break.
That was about all they could do.
It worked fine in the first half, although their shooting could have been better.

Unlike other teams they did not get blown away in the opening quarter.

So going into a game v Fermanagh on neutral ground they will be in decent enough shape.

I understand the point you're trying to make, but it could easily be turned on its head to say that the Westmeath team executed the managements plan and then only scored 6 points and lost by 13.

They can spin positives no doubt, but I wouldn't get carried away. Croke Park as part of a double header would significantly improve their chances IMO

CurryFlavoured · 13-07-2015 11:33AM

Tipp - Tyrone is interesting. Tempted to back Tipp odds depending.

JB81 · 13-07-2015 11:42AM

Interesting draws all right.
My own county travelling to Tipp will be tough, very tough, but we need tough games to see where we are. I do think we may just have enough but we will have to score more than we did against Meath.
I always thought that if we could get to a quarter final it would have been a decent year. 'If' we beat Tipp then we would need to be drawing Sligo and i think we would get to Croke Park. Otherwise it will be another Ulster battle against Monaghan ( i think Donegal will beat them ), which i dont think we are ready for..
I think Derry Galway will also be close, but Derry to just shade it.
Massive game for Fermanagh and Westmeath to get into a quarter final.
End of the road for Kildare.

threeball · 13-07-2015 11:43AM

Derry are a horrible draw for Galway. Much better chance of advancing v Tyrone or Tipp but Derry can shut up shop better than most teams.

Fr Tod Umptious · 13-07-2015 12:00PM

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

You love your stats fats.
Maybe take time to go through championship matches between teams from different provinces over the last year, 5 years, and 10 years. Any province with over 50% win rate is plausibly stronger than any with <50% win rate.

I've genuinely no idea what the results are but would be interested to see.
We can then get someone else to maybe exclude the first round of qualifiers and do it again (as first round is Leinster/Ulster topheavy and may skew the results).

Ok So I did some research and this is what is shows

Win % in inter province Championship games betrween 2001 and yesterday.

OverAll
Ulster 59%
Munster 53%
Leinster 47%
Connacht 37%

2011 to yesterday inclusive
Ulster 56%
Munster 51%
Leinster 46%
Connacht 41%

2006 to 2010 inclusive
Munster 62%
Ulster 56%
Leinster 53%
Connacht 19%

2001 to 2005 inclusive
Ulster 67%
Munster 45%
Connacht 45%
Leinster 39%

Some highlights
2003 - Ulster 87% (14 -2)

And some low lights
2008 and 2010 - Connacht 0% (0-3, 0-6)

seanhynes · 13-07-2015 03:10PM

will Harte leave if they lose to Tipperary? Hes there so long surely they need to freshen things up

ardmacha · 13-07-2015 06:55PM

threeball wrote: »

My point was they had better form than Armagh by quite a bit and the result couldn't be described as a poor result anymore than if Galway draw Tyrone in the next round and lost. It could go either way. A couple of analysts have described Galway as the best team in division 2 this year with 2nd half concentration costing them almost nailed on wins. They were more than capable of putting Armagh to the sword. Hopefully they'll get past the next round and have some chance of seeing Shane Walsh return.

Galway and Armagh are about the same level, division 2 material. While Armagh dropped to div 3 it could have been Galway and they came straight back up. You'd expect Armagh to shade yesterday's game with home advantage.

The earlier comments here, and elsewhere, are not to do with Galway. Armagh's performance was less than last year and this is not good regardless of who they play. Galway played decently, but not exceptionally, and won't be sitting on their laurels.

Jayop · 13-07-2015 08:53PM

Worst possible draw for my side, Tyrone. I'd have really fancied us against Galway or Derry and would have loved it to be in Galway as it's handy for me. Every single article and internet post in the run up to this game will be prefaced by the U21 thing and any in game incident will as always be blown out of all proportion. I hope the game is on Sky rather than RTE anyway but I'll try to make my way down to it.

As for Galway and Derry I'd fancy Galway to get a result at home but both games are going to be too close to call.

willabur · 14-07-2015 12:06PM

Jayop wrote: »

Worst possible draw for my side, Tyrone. I'd have really fancied us against Galway or Derry and would have loved it to be in Galway as it's handy for me. Every single article and internet post in the run up to this game will be prefaced by the U21 thing and any in game incident will as always be blown out of all proportion. I hope the game is on Sky rather than RTE anyway but I'll try to make my way down to it.

As for Galway and Derry I'd fancy Galway to get a result at home but both games are going to be too close to call.

Hopefully Tipp do the job - we need a new team at the table. They were the best time in that u21 final but seemed to lack belief to carry it through

Wacker The Attacker · 14-07-2015 12:23PM

Roll on all Ireland QF day

MattB11 · 14-07-2015 12:37PM

CurryFlavoured wrote:

Tipp - Tyrone is interesting. Tempted to back Tipp odds depending.

13/8 with pp

Boom__Boom · 14-07-2015 12:39PM

seanhynes wrote: »

will Harte leave if they lose to Tipperary? Hes there so long surely they need to freshen things up

His term is up at the end of this season.

I'd say the odds of him getting another term are very remote.

I'd say the Tyrone U21 management team are strong odds to take over.

Boom__Boom · 14-07-2015 01:07PM

Was looking at the teams left/teams out and where they finished up in the league this year. Every Division 1 team is still in the hunt, while no Division 4 team is left. 3 from Division 2 and 3 from Division 3 left.

Looking at who is left from Division 2 and Division 3 it's clear that for the middling teams who they get drawn against is a huge factor. Get drawn against a Division 4 side and you're smiling, get drawn against a Division 1 side and it's adios.

Cork Yes
Dublin Yes
Monaghan Yes
Donegal Yes
Mayo Yes
Kerry Yes
Tyrone Yes
Derry Yes
Down No
RoscommonNo
Meath No
Galway Yes
Cavan No
Laois No
Westmeath Yes
Kildare Yes
Fermanagh Yes
Armagh No
Tipperary Yes
Sligo Yes
Clare No
Limerick No
Louth No
Wexford No
Longford No
Offaly No
Antrim No
Leitrim No
Carlow No
Waterford No
Wicklow No
London No
New York No

The record of Division 4 teams (and New York) continues to be woeful.

This year Division 4 teams (plus New York) played 20 games in the championship and recorded 17 losses.

However 2 out of the 3 wins were where one Division 4 team beat another Division 4 team.

The sole bright spark was Antrim's win over Division 2's Laois. The fact that Laois narrowly avoided relegation and that their manager is already gone, says a world about how bad a result this was considered in Laois.

The average losing margin in these 18 games was just under 11 points (10.89)

CurryFlavoured · 14-07-2015 01:24PM

MattB11 wrote: »

13/8 with pp

Might take them on a handicap as part of an accumulator. I wouldn't be one bit surprised to see them win though, I think Hartes reign is coming to an end.

DoctaDee · 14-07-2015 01:39PM

I think the Mickey Harte situation will mirror that of Sean Boylan to a large extent - that ultimately it will be Harte himself who decides when to go. Harte much like Boylan is intrinsically linked in the social fibre of Tyrone, (both his personal and sporting life), giving him the chop will be an absolute no no and rightly so, whatever feelings people may have about the man he imo has been one of the most relevant sporting figures in the history of GAA.

Dyr · 14-07-2015 02:45PM

DoctaDee wrote: »

I think the Mickey Harte situation will mirror that of Sean Boylan to a large extent - that ultimately it will be Harte himself who decides when to go. Harte much like Boylan is intrinsically linked in the social fibre of Tyrone.

Harte has voodoo dolls of everyone in tyrone?

:pac:

Nidgeweasel · 14-07-2015 06:31PM

A comfortable win for Tyrone in store.

seligehgit · 14-07-2015 08:19PM

MattB11 wrote: »

13/8 with pp

Great value,quite fancy them to pull off a bit of a shock!

Jayop · 14-07-2015 10:31PM

willabur wrote: »

Hopefully Tipp do the job - we need a new team at the table. They were the best time in that u21 final but seemed to lack belief to carry it through

I'd dispute they were the best team in the U21 final. There was very little in it and if anything Tyrone edged the play as well as the score.

There will be a new team in the quarters from the Fermanagh/Westmeath game and Sligo will be in there too so there's enough to keep it interesting.

Boom__Boom wrote: »

His term is up at the end of this season.

I'd say the odds of him getting another term are very remote.

I'd say the Tyrone U21 management team are strong odds to take over.

I wouldn't be brave enough to bet against him getting another term. I'd probably prefer it if he did move aside as a Tyrone man but I just can't see anyone being brave enough to go against him.

He's a legend in the county but sport is fickle and it's always a case of "what have you done for me lately?"!

seligehgit · 14-07-2015 11:41PM

Jayop wrote: »

I'd dispute they were the best team in the U21 final. There was very little in it and if anything Tyrone edged the play as well as the score.

There will be a new team in the quarters from the Fermanagh/Westmeath game and Sligo will be in there too so there's enough to keep it interesting.

I wouldn't be brave enough to bet against him getting another term. I'd probably prefer it if he did move aside as a Tyrone man but I just can't see anyone being brave enough to go against him.

He's a legend in the county but sport is fickle and it's always a case of "what have you done for me lately?"!

Can't see any circumstances where there will be a putsch against Micky Harte,I imagine he will be allowed leave at a time of his choosing.

fyfe79 · 15-07-2015 10:42AM

Nidgeweasel wrote: »

A comfortable win for Tyrone in store.

Not with Tipp having home advantage. Tyrone may still edge it but it will be close. Tipp flattered to deceive against Kerry so they'll be looking to atone for that performance. A win against Tyrone would be a watershed moment for a hurling-dominant county that has made big strides in football recently. Should be a really good game. Hopefully we'll win but the eternal pessimism long associated with our football team means I wouldn't be surprised if Tyrone win.

Boom__Boom · 15-07-2015 08:26PM

On Harte the fact that 6 players walked away from the county squad this year is a big sign that things are not good in the camp. The dependence on older players doesn't exactly strike the right note for a team who won the U21 and will be looking to bring those lads through to senior.

A manager lives and dies by his results and the results in the last few years have been distinctly underwhelming, in both the league and championship. Throw in the fact that there seems to be no indication that Harte has what it takes to get Tyrone among the serious challengers again.

The fact that he has had troubled relations with the county board and his continuing issue with RTE don't do much to help his case. The fact that the sponsors went from being Hunky Dory to being Donnelly Brothers says a world about how Tyrone GAA has slipped from being a top table contender.

I don't think it will be a putsch/forced out situation but I do think Harte will be quietly told that his time is up. I don't think Tyrone GAA will continue to give him another term with a free pass on the results front.

Jayop · 15-07-2015 09:22PM

Boom__Boom wrote: »

On Harte the fact that 6 players walked away from the county squad this year is a big sign that things are not good in the camp. The dependence on older players doesn't exactly strike the right note for a team who won the U21 and will be looking to bring those lads through to senior.

A manager lives and dies by his results and the results in the last few years have been distinctly underwhelming, in both the league and championship. Throw in the fact that there seems to be no indication that Harte has what it takes to get Tyrone among the serious challengers again.

The fact that he has had troubled relations with the county board and his continuing issue with RTE don't do much to help his case. The fact that the sponsors went from being Hunky Dory to being Donnelly Brothers says a world about how Tyrone GAA has slipped from being a top table contender.

I don't think it will be a putsch/forced out situation but I do think Harte will be quietly told that his time is up. I don't think Tyrone GAA will continue to give him another term with a free pass on the results front.

I don't think the championship results have been as bad as is made out nor has the slip been as severe. Donegal have had the hex over us in Ulster for the last 5 years and it's really choking any progress as we're having to go in at round 1 or 2 of the qualifiers every year.

We won back to back Ulster championships in 09/10

2011 - beat by Donegal in Ulster and Dublin in Quarter Final
2012 - beat by Donegal in Ulster and Kerry in Qualifiers in Tralee
2013 - beat by Donegal in Ulster and Mayo in Semi Finals
2014 - beat by Monaghan in Ulster and Armagh in Qualifiers
2015 - beat by Donegal in Ulster and still in championship

So in the last 5 years we've only lost to one side we should really have beaten in Armagh. Losing to Donegal, Dublin, Kerry and a decent Monaghan side isn't the big slide into mediocrity it was made out to be.

henke · 15-07-2015 09:27PM

Jayop wrote:

2011 - beat by Donegal in Ulster and Dublin in Quarter Final 2012 - beat by Donegal in Ulster and Kerry in Qualifiers in Tralee 2013 - beat by Donegal in Ulster and Monaghan in Quarter Final 2014 - beat by Monaghan in Ulster and Armagh in Qualifiers 2015 - beat by Donegal in Ulster and still in championship

Think yous beat Monaghan in that game? Where the famous Cavanagh pull down happened and lost in the semi final to Mayo.

Jayop · 15-07-2015 09:35PM

henke wrote: »

Think yous beat Monaghan in that game? Where the famous Cavanagh pull down happened and lost in the semi final to Mayo.

Sorry, you're 100% right. I was thinking there was a problem with it when I typed it out.

Same point stands though. No shame losing to Mayo.

The 2015 All Ireland Senior Football Championship

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