TRADER'S CORNER

For ever odd · 24-04-2015 5:37pm #1

Trade idea's, technical, fundamentals and anything trade related.

Fizman · 25-04-2015 2:08pm

DAX took a big hit over the last week or so mainly due to Greece. Looks quite cheap right now. Have made nice gains off it this week and hope to get a piece of it's pie as it (hopefully) trundles back up to the 12500 mark. Crazy swings right now though, so my stops have been small so happy to take a few little hits for a few big gains.

arrowloopboy · 26-04-2015 9:00pm

Bought Twitter Friday evening ,they report Tuesday after the bell ,short term ,hoping for good numbers ,as alot of the sector have already reported good numbers.

colman1212 · 27-04-2015 4:37am

arrowloopboy wrote: »

Bought Twitter Friday evening ,they report Tuesday after the bell ,short term ,hoping for good numbers ,as alot of the sector have already reported good numbers.

Out of interest, what kind of tax are you liable for in Ireland on profits from short term trades? I know its quite high here in oz if you sell within 12 months.

For ever odd · 27-04-2015 6:45am

33% CGT is the same if you hold for 1 hour or 10 years. Spreadbetting which arrow is doing above, is0%

facing_west · 27-04-2015 11:58am

Fizman wrote: »

DAX took a big hit over the last week or so mainly due to Greece. Looks quite cheap right now. Have made nice gains off it this week and hope to get a piece of it's pie as it (hopefully) trundles back up to the 12500 mark. Crazy swings right now though, so my stops have been small so happy to take a few little hits for a few big gains.

what is the PE of the DAX currently , read contrasting figures , is it 16 ?

arrowloopboy · 27-04-2015 6:25pm

Just also bought T Mobile U.S @ 3439,they also report Q1 earnings tomorrow,should be good.

For ever odd · 27-04-2015 8:45pm

Apple are reporting tonight. I have no position but I like to watch the crazy moves. Way way to volatile for me.

ftse100 · 27-04-2015 9:10pm

Opened an Apple CFD Position this morning with IG. Doing pretty well. Don't know whether to close before or after earnings.

For ever odd · 27-04-2015 9:42pm

Wow a 600 point candle in 1 minute.

arrowloopboy · 27-04-2015 11:03pm

Was thinking of trading it ,thank fcuk I didn't ,that 1 minute candle dropped 340 odd points before reversing ,too much action.

paisley2 · 28-04-2015 7:17pm

arrowloopboy wrote: »

Bought Twitter Friday evening ,they report Tuesday after the bell ,short term ,hoping for good numbers ,as alot of the sector have already reported good numbers.

Hi Arrow
Out of curiosity is this a one off punt on TWTR earnings or are you trading an Earnings Strategy?
Personally I never hold a short term swing position through earnings and only ⅓ of my original position on a Long Term trend strategy is held over earnings.

arrowloopboy · 28-04-2015 8:35pm

paisley2 wrote: »

Hi Arrow
Out of curiosity is this a one off punt on TWTR earnings or are you trading an Earnings Strategy?
Personally I never hold a short term swing position through earnings and only ⅓ of my original position on a Long Term trend strategy is held over earnings.

Hi Paisley ,these earnings trades aren't part of my main trading approach ,I trade a few of them every year ,on a roll over or near 1/4 contract ,I don't generally take punts,thats for mugs ,if I believe through a bit of research that a company may be reporting good numbers,it can be a good kick star on a position that I can hold for a few months .
Usually its no more that 1% of my a/c devided into a 5% s/l ,with a target of 5% minimum,and the s/l set at b/e asap or a trailing stop.
I also bought T Mobile yesterday,they also report after 9 tonight.

For ever odd · 28-04-2015 8:46pm

Oh dear, twitter bid at 40 ask at 45 in halted trading. What a mess.
Earnings were leaked early

arrowloopboy · 28-04-2015 8:56pm

Thank god for g/s/ls ,down 18%:eek:,in a few minutes ,oops:D.

For ever odd · 28-04-2015 9:00pm

Maybe a buy for a retrace?

Fizman · 29-04-2015 4:12pm

Serious movement today!

DAX down 400 and EUR/USD up past 11150.

For ever odd · 29-04-2015 8:50pm

Fizman wrote: »

Serious movement today!

DAX down 400 and EUR/USD up past 11150.

Currency and index seem to move in opposite directions these days. I think before all this QE craic, they moved in the same direction.

dasdog · 30-04-2015 5:45pm

For ever odd wrote: »

Currency and index seem to move in opposite directions these days. I think before all this QE craic, they moved in the same direction.

I've noticed this too e.g., sell NAS100 flash on the US job numbers @ 1:30 this afternoon. I presume the logic is simple as big tech profit forecasts being hit by currency headwinds in the case of NAS.

AUD was absolutely crushed today from its recent highs that looked unsustainable. I may get another position open if there is a bounce.

GBP still thinks the sun will never set on the empire that started mid-April. It's been behaving irrationally and not falling when it "should". It's been recovering quickly after bad news and overshooting the bad pre-print level (in USD case anyway). When the dam bursts on that one it could be very interesting.

For ever odd · 01-05-2015 6:25pm

@ dasdog

Good shout on sterling, as it tanked today. Are you planning to stay short for a while?

dasdog · 01-05-2015 8:09pm

I saw some technical's this morning that kept it in a range and didn't jump in when when UK Manufacturing PMI came out. I thought there may be more upward irrationality so focussed on AUD which I traded beautifully when EUR attempted its 1270 breaches (AUD has been moving sympathetically in line with EUR).

Misread the 15:00 US print later as slightly negative and gave up most of today's gains in the furore. Was the data really that good?

USD/JPY is 120,275 at the moment which I see as over valued unless you want to put me right with today's US data.

AUD/USD I'll short again but get out of before Tuesdays RBA decision as the rate cut is apparently media hyped but the trajectory should be downward before the decision at 5:30am.

For ever odd · 01-05-2015 8:56pm

USD/JPY

Japan practically imports all of it's oil, so the rise in oil prices could be weighing on the yen. The divergence in economic policy also has to be taken into account. If I remember correctly,I read 140 been mentioned as a target for year end.
I don't really follow the yen.
15:00 data wasnt great, while it missed estimates slightly it held the same as the previous month. My read on it would be, that with all the misses lately it was as good as a beat and gave some buyers a reason to get back in.

Edit:
Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 15 are reporting growth in April in the following order: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Wood Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Furniture & Related Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Paper Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Machinery; Transportation Equipment; Textile Mills; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Chemical Products; and Primary Metals. The two industries reporting contraction in April are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; and Computer & Electronic Products.

dasdog · 01-05-2015 9:35pm

15:00 does seem like "close enough". JPY is a relatively safe one as its not volatile. Whatever Fed member Williams said seems to be doing the trick as its heading toward 119 now. All is not rosey in the US garden gentle reminder.

I'd treat anything above 0.78 AUD/USD good to short before Tuesday but keep an eye on Iron Ore and 5:30am is not a time to be awake making decisions.

GBP pre-election is hard to call after the fall today.

Have a good weekend.

For ever odd · 01-05-2015 10:02pm

GBP
Met up with a couple of mates last night that were back from UK for long weekend. They work in construction and are making over a grand a week sterling. They reckon it's absolutely booming over there and there is a big shortage of workers. compere that to the data coming out of the UK.

Have a good one!

For ever odd · 06-05-2015 9:17am

Any views on the non farm payrolls this Friday?

dasdog · 06-05-2015 11:04am

For ever odd wrote: »

Any views on the non farm payrolls this Friday?

Cautiously bullish but waiting for today's ADP data at 13:15 for some more clarity.

The non-manufacturing ISM was good yesterday which supports the case but the market decided otherwise after I stepped in long. Playing this by the Franc which looks quite strong at the moment.

dasdog · 06-05-2015 1:21pm

Looks like the bears were right yesterday.

Positions closed. US appears to be heading in the wrong direction fast.

Fizman · 06-05-2015 2:34pm

This is what stumps me with the DOW though. The data is poor (US productivity first back to back below exp quarterlies since 1993), yet Wall St barely shuddered and still around the 18000 mark.

Fizman · 06-05-2015 2:49pm

And literally as I typed that, there's a sudden drop of 150 pts!

For ever odd · 06-05-2015 3:04pm

dasdog wrote: »

Looks like the bears were right yesterday.

Positions closed. US appears to be heading in the wrong direction fast.

Why do you say that? Is the US economy faltering and heading for a recession or is it just not growing fast enough? Although the US is missing estimates, the numbers are fairly decent.

dasdog · 06-05-2015 4:15pm

For ever odd wrote: »

Why do you say that? Is the US economy faltering and heading for a recession or is it just not growing fast enough? Although the US is missing estimates, the numbers are fairly decent.

I'd go for the latter but I heard recession mentioned last week by which I assumed was an overly negative analyst on Bloomberg. I'd say they are far away from that and will take measures to avoid if (big if) there are signs. Expectations were probably just set too high in February/March.

Euro has been doing some serious damage today and I suspect another attack will be mounted on the stops later.

For ever odd · 06-05-2015 7:22pm

dasdog wrote: »

Cautiously bullish but waiting for today's ADP data at 13:15 for some more clarity.

The non-manufacturing ISM was good yesterday which supports the case but the market decided otherwise after I stepped in long. Playing this by the Franc which looks quite strong at the moment.

I would be of the same opinion. 213,00 is the forcast, I think anything between 200,000/ 250,000 will steady the ship. 250,000/ 300,000 will give a bit of confidence,with other data releases watched closely to see if there is a change from soft winter data.300,000 >will see June rate hike talk back on the table. 150,000/200,000 will back up soft winter data. 150,000< will confirm economic trouble.Any revisions to past releases have to be noted.
Working off these rough figures,what position(s) do you guys think would be the way to go?

Fizman · 07-05-2015 1:03pm

Alibaba up 10% in the past hour off the back of earnings. Missed a trick there unfortunately.

dasdog · 07-05-2015 2:20pm

In contrast to yesterdays ADP the US jobless figures were really good today. I would be shot for treason a long time ago if this was war. Nudging in to the bull ring long against CHF. That's shoot for the stars stuff if the print is good.

Interesting circular to JP Morgan clients posted on Twitter.

For ever odd · 07-05-2015 7:55pm

dasdog wrote: »

In contrast to yesterdays ADP the US jobless figures were really good today. I would be shot for treason a long time ago if this was war. Nudging in to the bull ring long against CHF. That's shoot for the stars stuff if the print is good.

Lol; not at all, it's part and parcel of the game. If it suits you and your making money,that's all that matters!

dasdog · 07-05-2015 10:10pm

Sterling just rocketed on the (I assume BBC) exit poll. Day off tomorrow. Going to be a long night/morning. RBA speak at 2:30am. If you noticed they cut rates on Tuesday and the Oz Dollar went up due to the wording. Playing GBP long against AUD so I'll need to box clever.

I still think NFP will miss tomorrow but I'm in a decent profit window with USD/CHF so its about shifting the stop. Hopefully its near the 200k mark. If it beats expectations...:pac:

For ever odd · 07-05-2015 11:00pm

I will wait till Tuesday/ Wednesday till I trade!
Have a good one!

Fizman · 08-05-2015 12:48pm

Anyone trading the NFP today?

dasdog · 08-05-2015 2:52pm

Fizman wrote: »

Anyone trading the NFP today?

I don't see how the numbers can stop the Euro going back to where it was yesterday. I say that after walking straight in to a costly punch early on and going long at $1.118 to recover.

EDIT: Closed and GBP 1.5449 short on.

M three · 08-05-2015 4:29pm

Apologies if this is the wrong place but can anyone tell me how I find out the 5 largest companies by market cap in India or Nepal?
Have looked on here but it isnt clear to me..

http://www.nepalstock.com.np/

For ever odd · 08-05-2015 11:07pm

dasdog wrote: »

I don't see how the numbers can stop the Euro going back to where it was yesterday. I say that after walking straight in to a costly punch early on and going long at $1.118 to recover.

EDIT: Closed and GBP 1.5449 short on.

Ah come on, how is anyone supposed to follow this sh1te.
Where is your trade idea, where is your fundamentals, where is your technicals,as in post number 1?

dasdog · 09-05-2015 11:13am

For ever odd wrote: »

Ah come on, how is anyone supposed to follow this sh1te.
Where is your trade idea, where is your fundamentals, where is your technicals,as in post number 1?

The move was from chapter ah bollocks where revenge was being sought and most of the previous night and mornings gains being thrown away. Stars aligned with the tories & convicts down under during the marathon. Only plus was a stinker open from March closed and a small net gain overall. Mind needed rest at that stage but the demons got the better of me.

For ever odd · 09-05-2015 5:05pm

For ever odd wrote: »

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report - TDS
FXStreet (Guatemala) - For the commodity market, Analysts at TD Securities offered the CFTC Commitment of Traders Report for the week ending May 5th, 2015.

Key Quotes:

"Gold specs aggressively cut long holdings and grew short exposure amid expectations the US employment data will point to recovery and the Fed will tighten monetary conditions later in the year."

"In sharp contrast to gold positioning, silver investors went convincingly net long, as their positioning looked too much toward a correction already."

"Platinum specs removed a tiny bit of both long and short positions, unsure about how well European auto sales would fare and what China data would signal for demand."

"Palladium specs on the short side were fearful that China stimulus measures would spur additional auto sales—nearing a full reversal of early year bearishness."

"Copper investors cut more shorts and added longs, as global inventories decline, supply curtailment announcements continue, and China demand hopes strengthen."

"Crude oil specs covered short futures exposure in response to the rally over the last few weeks as WTI specs continued to reduce shorts, while Brent specs added more to short positions than longs last week."

"Natural gas specs also heavily short-covered last week, taking profits from the currently low price environment."

"Gasoline positions were hardly changed, while heating oil specs reduced net short exposure in accordance with broader energy market sentiment and contrary to growing inventories."
22:35 - FXStreet

CFTC commitments of traders report - TDS
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at TD Securities offered the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for week ending Tuesday, April 28th.

Key Quotes:

"CFTC data for the week through May 5th showed a significant shift in positioning in the JPY, AUD, CAD, GBP and MXN. Net shorts in JPY increased by 26k to –31k contracts. The move comes ahead of extended holidays in Japan. Leveraged funds accounted for the majority of the move."

"We expect JPY weakness (and related positioning) to become more deeply entrenched as we transition into the second half of the year when Fed hike expectations firm; even if the Fed delays hikes until early 2016 we suspect that the BoJ will have to provide additional stimulus. In either scenario, JPY weakness will prevail."

"Positioning in AUD swiftly shifted to a net long of 0.6k contracts, a weekly swing of 28k contracts. This is probably due to the RBA meeting; despite delivering 25bps of cuts the removal of its easing bias provided a lift to the AUD."

"CAD net shorts were reduced by 10.8k contracts to –10.8k (mostly due to leveraged funds). We are not surprised by this change given that we were looking for a USD/CAD to drop to 1.1950, which it did. We think we are nearing the point where USD/CAD longs will be the big trade for the rest of the year."

"Net shorts in GBP were scaled back to 9.4k to –24.8k contracts ahead of UK election week. Expect net shorts to be sharply reduced in next week’s report given the surprising Conservative majority win. As we noted here, we like strategic longs in GBP/CAD and shorts in EUR/GBP."

"EUR net shorts were also pared back by 7.6k contracts to –190k. We do not think this is sustainable however and the rally in EUR/USD looks like it has stalled. Sentiment measures remain bearish and though we expected the countertrend bounce, we think it is an opportune time to get short EUR/USD"

"MXN net shorts increased by 26.7k to –50.1k contracts. CHF net longs increased by 4.0k to 5.3k contracts. The move would consistent with EMFX underperformance. NZD net longs were scaled back by 1.1k to 9.1k contracts. Overall, we estimate that aggregate USD position stands at USD33.2bn (from USD34.7bn last week)."
21:20 - FXStreet

For ever odd · 11-05-2015 1:29am

Toyota hit record profits mainly due to weak yen(sales are lower). I will be watching BMW, Daimler and the DAX tomorrow to see if there Is any influence.

EDIT
Bmw and Daimler were down this morning but recovered somewhat. Volkswagen down over 4% for the day, Michelin and Palladium had noted drops too.

For ever odd · 12-05-2015 7:55pm

I got aggressive today, and shorted the bejasus out of
DAX
Volkswagen
Bmw
Daimler
CAC
Renault
Peugeot
Michelin

May, June and July targets hit today. Time to relax now.

Fizman · 12-05-2015 10:36pm

For ever odd wrote: »

I got aggressive today, and shorted the bejasus out of
DAX
Volkswagen
Bmw
Daimler
CAC
Renault
Peugeot
Michelin

May, June and July targets hit today. Time to relax now.

Nice work. Out of interest, do you have strict risk management maths that you would typically stick by?

dasdog · 12-05-2015 11:10pm

For ever odd wrote: »

I got aggressive today, and shorted the bejasus out of
DAX
Volkswagen
Bmw
Daimler
CAC
Renault
Peugeot
Michelin

May, June and July targets hit today. Time to relax now.

Stronger EUR and DAX overcooked? I saw US auto sales mentioned as a factor in April's US Retail expectation tomorrow at 0.2% (compared that to Core Retail at 0.5%).

I don't think there is a clear direction in FX majors at the moment. GBP is defying all the bears. Not even sure if bad data will reverse it tomorrow (GBP/NZD made a huge move yesterday). Zero positions open right now which is rare. Went briefly long on GBP/USD today when it broke 1.56 and closed EUR/USD when it broke 1.125 (opened on Friday) but I've no real ideas. I'll go to follow the trend mode in big bursts if anything.

For ever odd · 13-05-2015 8:38am

Fizman wrote: »

Nice work. Out of interest, do you have strict risk management maths that you would typically stick by?

Yes, strict but simple. Yesterday was just one of those days when everything went to plan, for a change.
No trades open. I will not trade for the rest of the week.

For ever odd · 13-05-2015 11:41am

dasdog wrote: »

Stronger EUR and DAX overcooked? I saw US auto sales mentioned as a factor in April's US Retail expectation tomorrow at 0.2% (compared that to Core Retail at 0.5%).

I don't think there is a clear direction in FX majors at the moment. GBP is defying all the bears. Not even sure if bad data will reverse it tomorrow (GBP/NZD made a huge move yesterday). Zero positions open right now which is rare. Went briefly long on GBP/USD today when it broke 1.56 and closed EUR/USD when it broke 1.125 (opened on Friday) but I've no real ideas. I'll go to follow the trend mode in big bursts if anything.

In my opinion it's to late to start planning a trade for today. Governor kurdoa is speaking on Friday at 4.40am. Why don't you have a look and throw an idea up here.

Fizman · 13-05-2015 12:45pm

There's some big US data at 13.30 this afternoon that could be a market mover. If US Retail Sales is decent, good chance of USD strengthening.

I see there's a few articles appearing this morning too from a few influential sources saying they feel that the Eur/Usd correction is almost done and parity in Q3/Q4 is likely.

dasdog · 13-05-2015 8:39pm

For ever odd wrote: »

In my opinion it's to late to start planning a trade for today. Governor kurdoa is speaking on Friday at 4.40am. Why don't you have a look and throw an idea up here.

PM sent.

Fizman wrote: »

There's some big US data at 13.30 this afternoon that could be a market mover. If US Retail Sales is decent, good chance of USD strengthening.

I see there's a few articles appearing this morning too from a few influential sources saying they feel that the Eur/Usd correction is almost done and parity in Q3/Q4 is likely.

Have a look at the FX section on trading floor. I don't think there was a single recommendation today that was correct. Except MOFuturesFX sentiment last night who called everything right bar GBP/NZD which had rallied massively on Mon/Tue and GBP/JPY which has two good days also. I'm been looking out at his sentiment nightly and retrospectively.

I find it hard to believe there is going to be a strong Q2 when the US are creating jobs that doesn't appear to be yielding a lot of disposable income.

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